Examination of the predictive value of structural magnetic resonance scans in bipolar disorder:a pattern classification approach

Background - Bipolar disorder (BD) is one of the leading causes of disability worldwide. Patients are further disadvantaged by delays in accurate diagnosis ranging between 5 and 10 years. We applied Gaussian process classifiers (GPCs) to structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) data to evaluate the feasibility of using pattern recognition techniques for the diagnostic classification of patients with BD. Method - GPCs were applied to gray (GM) and white matter (WM) sMRI data derived from two independent samples of patients with BD (cohort 1: n = 26; cohort 2: n = 14). Within each cohort patients were matched on age, sex and IQ to an equal number of healthy controls. Results - The diagnostic accuracy of the GPC for GM was 73% in cohort 1 and 72% in cohort 2; the sensitivity and specificity of the GM classification were respectively 69% and 77% in cohort 1 and 64% and 99% in cohort 2. The diagnostic accuracy of the GPC for WM was 69% in cohort 1 and 78% in cohort 2; the sensitivity and specificity of the WM classification were both 69% in cohort 1 and 71% and 86% respectively in cohort 2. In both samples, GM and WM clusters discriminating between patients and controls were localized within cortical and subcortical structures implicated in BD. Conclusions - Our results demonstrate the predictive value of neuroanatomical data in discriminating patients with BD from healthy individuals. The overlap between discriminative networks and regions implicated in the pathophysiology of BD supports the biological plausibility of the classifiers.

Challenging the predictive ability of accounting techniques in modelling organizational futures

This article considers the role of accounting in organisational decision making. It challenges the rational nature of decisions made in organisations through the use of accounting models and the problems of predicting the future through the use of such models. The use of accounting in this manner is evaluated from an epochal postmodern stance. Issues raised by chaos theory and the uncertainty principle are used to demonstrate problems with the predictive ability of accounting models. The authors argue that any consideration of the predictive value of accounting needs to change to incorporate a recognition of the turbulent external environment, if it is to be of use for organisational decision making. Thus it is argued that the role of accounting as a mechanism for knowledge creation regarding the future is fundamentally flawed. We take this as a starting-point to argue for the real purpose of the use of the predictive techniques of accounting, using its ritualistic role in the context of myth creation to argue for the cultural benefits of the use of such flawed techniques.

Developmental stability and leadership effectiveness

Developmental stability is the degree to which we can withstand environmental or genetic stressors during development. Fluctuating asymmetry (FA), concerns the extent to which the right and left side of the body is asymmetrical and is one way to measure developmental stability. Two studies were carried out that examined both the predictive value of leader FA with leadership behaviors and its role in facilitating group performance. The first study examined the hypothesis that a leader's FA is correlated with scores on the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (MLQ). The results revealed individuals with a more asymmetrical morphology scored higher on the transformational, but not transactional, dimensions of leadership behavior. A second study examined the hypothesis that asymmetrical morphology and leadership effectiveness would share a positive relationship. In this study participants who led a business game exercise, revealed a positive relationship between FA and self-reported well-being and task satisfaction. Importantly, there was also a positive correlation between the leader's FA score and group performance. The role that developmental stability may play in leadership effectiveness is discussed in the wider context of evolutionary psychology.

Status and professional association councils. Available in 4 volumes.

This thesis examines the predictive value of a conceptual distinction between status-seeking associations and status-maintaining associations for enhancing understanding of ten selected professional associations and of the attitudes, values, behaviour and policies of their governing organs. Thirty four specific hypotheses have been tested by such research methods as questionnaires administered to individuals and associations, participant observation and an examination of association minutes and publications. Certain hypotheses have been found to be valid for particular matched pairs and/or groups of associations. The findings of the study suggest that the present conceptualisation of profession, the individual professional, professionalism, professionalisation, professional status and that relating to the role of the professions in society needs to be refined and modified in varying degrees in application to accounting associations, business graduate associations and management associations. The concept of the `ideal type' profession is shown to be of limited value in understanding certain aspects of the activities of business graduate and management associations. The findings of the study suggest that in future the professional associations examined may attach less importance to their qualifying role and lay more stress upon their representational role. The professional association faces a managerial challenge to adjust and adapt to a range of `external' pressures and `internal' demands from members and may increasingly need to be regarded as an organisation that possesses certain combinations or sets of characteristics rather than as a type of organisation that possesses a particular or relatively exclusive set. With a blurring of the distinction between the professional and state sector vocational education, and a growing customer/market orientation associated with the changing nature of work, membership of a professional association may, in future, come to be associated rather more with securing access to a relevant range of services and less with qualification for a particular career.

Waveform type evaluation in congenital nystagmus

Congenital nystagmus is an ocular-motor disorder characterised by involuntary, conjugated and bilateral to and fro ocular oscillations. In this study a method to recognise automatically jerk waveform inside a congenital nystagmus recording and to compute foveation time and foveation position variability is presented. The recordings were performed with subjects looking at visual targets, presented in nine eye gaze positions; data were segmented into blocks corresponding to each gaze position. The nystagmus cycles were identified searching for local minima and maxima (SpEp sequence) in intervals centred on each slope change of the eye position signal (position criterion). The SpEp sequence was then refined using an adaptive threshold applied to the eye velocity signal; the outcome is a robust detection of each slow phase start point, fundamental to accurately compute some nystagmus parameters. A total of 1206 slow phases was used to compute the specificity in waveform recognition applying only the position criterion or adding the adaptive threshold; results showed an increase in negative predictive value of 25.1% using both features. The duration of each foveation window was measured on raw data or using an interpolating function of the congenital nystagmus slow phases; foveation time estimation less sensitive to noise was obtained in the second case. © 2010.

People consider reliability and cost when verifying their autobiographical memories

Because memories are not always accurate, people rely on a variety of strategies to verify whether the events that they remember really did occur. Several studies have examined which strategies people tend to use, but none to date has asked why people opt for certain strategies over others. Here we examined the extent to which people's beliefs about the reliability and the cost of different strategies would determine their strategy selection. Subjects described a childhood memory and then suggested strategies they might use to verify the accuracy of that memory. Next, they rated the reliability and cost of each strategy, and the likelihood that they might use it. Reliability and cost each predicted strategy selection, but a combination of the two ratings provided even greater predictive value. Cost was significantly more influential than reliability, which suggests that a tendency to seek and to value "cheap" information more than reliable information could underlie many real-world memory errors. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.