Credibility theory-based available transfer capability assessment

Since the development of large scale power grid interconnections and power markets, research on available transfer capability (ATC) has attracted great attention. The challenges for accurate assessment of ATC originate from the numerous uncertainties in electricity generation, transmission, distribution and utilization sectors. Power system uncertainties can be mainly described as two types: randomness and fuzziness. However, the traditional transmission reliability margin (TRM) approach only considers randomness. Based on credibility theory, this paper firstly built models of generators, transmission lines and loads according to their features of both randomness and fuzziness. Then a random fuzzy simulation is applied, along with a novel method proposed for ATC assessment, in which both randomness and fuzziness are considered. The bootstrap method and multi-core parallel computing technique are introduced to enhance the processing speed. By implementing simulation for the IEEE-30-bus system and a real-life system located in Northwest China, the viability of the models and the proposed method is verified.

Using biomass-based fuels including pyrolysis liquids for power and CHP production

The use of biomass-derived liquids (in short: bioliquids) instead of solid biomass can help overcome some of the barriers hindering a wider use of biomass in smaller-scale CHP systems. Relevant bioliquids included biodiesel, vegetable oils as well straight and upgraded pyrolysis oil. In this joint EU-Russian research project Bioliquids-CHP prime movers (engines and turbines) will be developed and modified so that these can run efficiently on bioliquids. At the same time, bioliquids will be upgraded and blended in order to facilitate their use in prime movers. Preliminary results with regard to bioliquid selection, production, and characterisation; the selection and modification of a micro gas turbine; and the development of engines and components are discussed. The research also covers NOx emission reduction and control and an assessment of the benefits and economics of bioliquids-based CHP systems in EU and Russian markets.

Waste to power

ABSTRACT: There has been a growing trend towards the use of biomass as a primary energy source, which now contributes over 54% of the European pulp and paper industry energy needs [1]. The remaining part comes from natural gas, which to a large extent serves as the major source of energy for numerous recovered fiber paper mills located in regions with limited available forest resources. The cost of producing electricity to drive paper machinery and generate heat for steam is increasing as world demand for fossil fuels increases. Additionally, recovered fiber paper mills are also significant producers of fibrous sludge and reject waste material that can contain high amounts of useful energy. Currently, a majority of these waste fractions is disposed of by landspreading, incineration, or landfill. Paper mills must also pay a gate fee to process their waste streams in this way and the result of this is a further increase in operating costs. This work has developed methods to utilize the waste fractions produced at recovered fiber paper mills for the onsite production of combined heat and power (CHP) using advanced thermal conversion methods (pyrolysis and gasification) that are well suited to relatively small scales of throughput. The electrical power created would either be used onsite to power the paper making process or alternatively exported to the national grid, and the surplus heat created could also be used onsite or exported to a local customer. The focus of this paper is to give a general overview of the project progress so far and will present the experimental results of the most successful thermal conversion trials carried out by this work to date. Application: The research provides both paper mills and energy providers with methodologies to condition their waste materials for conversion into useful energy. The research also opens up new markets for gasifier and pyrolysis equipment manufacturers and suppliers.

Purchasing power parity and structural instability in the US/UK exchange rate

The aim of this study is to determine if nonlinearities have affected purchasing power parity (PPP) since 1885. Also using recent advances in the econometrics of structural change we segment the sample space according to the identified breaks and look at whether the PPP condition holds in each sub-sample and whether this involves linear or non-linear adjustment. Our results suggest that during some sub-periods, PPP holds, although whether it holds or not and whether the adjustment is linear or non-linear, depends primarily on the type of exchange rate regime in operation at any point in time.

Multivariate FIAPARCH modelling of financial markets with dynamic correlations in times of crisis

This paper applies the vector AR-DCC-FIAPARCH model to eight national stock market indices' daily returns from 1988 to 2010, taking into account the structural breaks of each time series linked to the Asian and the recent Global financial crisis. We find significant cross effects, as well as long range volatility dependence, asymmetric volatility response to positive and negative shocks, and the power of returns that best fits the volatility pattern. One of the main findings of the model analysis is the higher dynamic correlations of the stock markets after a crisis event, which means increased contagion effects between the markets. The fact that during the crisis the conditional correlations remain on a high level indicates a continuous herding behaviour during these periods of increased market volatility. Finally, during the recent Global financial crisis the correlations remain on a much higher level than during the Asian financial crisis.

Human resource management in emerging markets:an introduction

The shifting of global economic power from mature, established markets to emerging markets (EMs) is a fundamental feature of the new realities in the global political economy. Due to a combination of reasons (such as scarcity of reliable information on management systems of EMs, the growing contribution of human resource management (HRM) towards organisational performance, amongst others), the understanding about the dynamics of management of HRM in the EMs context and the need for proactive efforts by key stakeholders (e.g., multinational and local firms, policy makers and institutions such as trade unions) to develop appropriate HRM practice and policy for EMs has now become more critical than ever. It is more so given the phenomenal significance of the EMs predicted for the future of the global economy. For example, Antoine van Agtmael predicts that: in about 25 years the combined gross national product (GNP) of emergent markets will overtake that of currently mature economies causing a major shift in the centre of gravity of the global economy away from the developed to emerging economies. (van Agtmael 2007: 10–11) Despite the present (late 2013 and early 2014) slowdown in the contribution of EMs towards the global industrial growth (e.g., Das, 2013; Reuters, 2014), EMs are predicted to produce 70 per cent of world GDP growth and a further ten years later, their equity market capitalisation is expected to reach US$ 80 trillion, 1.2 times more than the developed world (see Goldman Sachs, 2010).

Asymmetric price transmission in EU petroleum markets

This research investigates the determinants of asymmetric price transmission (APT) in European petroleum markets. APT is the faster response of retail prices to cost increases than to cost decreases; resulting in a welfare transfer from consumers to fuel retailers. I investigate APT at 3 different levels: the EU, the UK and at the Birmingham level. First, I examine the incidence of asymmetries in the retail markets of six major EU countries; significant asymmetries are found in all countries except from the UK. The market share data suggest that asymmetries are more important in more concentrated markets; this finding supports the collusion theory. I extend the investigation to 12 EU countries and note that APT is greater in diesel markets. The cross-country analysis suggests that vertical and horizontal concentration at least partly explains the degree of asymmetry. I provide evidence justifying scrutiny over retail markets’ pricing and structure. Second daily data unveil the presence of APT in the UK fuel markets. I use break tests to identify segments with different pricing regimes. Two main types of periods are identified: periods of rising oil price exhibit significant asymmetries whilst periods of recession do not. Our results suggest that oligopolistic coordination between retailers generate excess rents during periods of rising oil price whilst the coordination fails due to price wars when oil prices are going downwards. Finally I investigate the pricing behaviour of petroleum retailers in the Birmingham (UK) area for 2008. Whilst the market structure data reveals that the horizontal concentration is higher than the national UK average, I find no evidence of APT. In contrast, I find that retail prices are sticky upwards and downwards and that firms with market power (majors and supermarkets) adjust their prices slower than other firms.