Calculating the balance between water resources and water demands:an approach using risk analysis

Predicting future need for water resources has traditionally been, at best, a crude mixture of art and science. This has prevented the evaluation of water need from being carried out in either a consistent or comprehensive manner. This inconsistent and somewhat arbitrary approach to water resources planning led to well publicised premature developments in the 1970's and 1980's but privatisation of the Water Industry, including creation of the Office of Water Services and the National Rivers Authority in 1989, turned the tide of resource planning to the point where funding of schemes and their justification by the Regulators could no longer be assumed. Furthermore, considerable areas of uncertainty were beginning to enter the debate and complicate the assessment It was also no longer appropriate to consider that contingencies would continue to lie solely on the demand side of the equation. An inability to calculate the balance between supply and demand may mean an inability to meet standards of service or, arguably worse, an excessive provision of water resources and excessive costs to customers. United Kingdom Water Industry Research limited (UKWlR) Headroom project in 1998 provided a simple methodology for the calculation of planning margins. This methodology, although well received, was not, however, accepted by the Regulators as a tool sufficient to promote resource development. This thesis begins by considering the history of water resource planning in the UK, moving on to discuss events following privatisation of the water industry post·1985. The mid section of the research forms the bulk of original work and provides a scoping exercise which reveals a catalogue of uncertainties prevalent within the supply-demand balance. Each of these uncertainties is considered in terms of materiality, scope, and whether it can be quantified within a risk analysis package. Many of the areas of uncertainty identified would merit further research. A workable, yet robust, methodology for evaluating the balance between water resources and water demands by using a spreadsheet based risk analysis package is presented. The technique involves statistical sampling and simulation such that samples are taken from input distributions on both the supply and demand side of the equation and the imbalance between supply and demand is calculated in the form of an output distribution. The percentiles of the output distribution represent different standards of service to the customer. The model allows dependencies between distributions to be considered, for improved uncertainties to be assessed and for the impact of uncertain solutions to any imbalance to be calculated directly. The method is considered a Significant leap forward in the field of water resource planning.

Monitoring changes in thioredoxin and over-oxidised peroxiredoxin in response to exercise in humans

Introduction. Peroxiredoxin (PRDX) and thioredoxin (TRX) are antioxidant proteins that control cellular signalling and redox balance, although their response to exercise is unknown. This study aimed to assess key aspects of the PRDX-TRX redox cycle in response to three different modes of exercise. Methods. Healthy males (n = 10, mean ± SD: 22 ± 3 yrs) undertook three exercise trials on separate days: two steady-state cycling trials at moderate (60% VO2MAX; 27 min, MOD) and high (80% VO2MAX; 20 min, HIGH) intensities, and a low-volume high-intensity interval training trial (10 × 1 min 90% VO2MAX, LV-HIIT). Peripheral blood mononuclear cells were assessed for TRX-1 and over-oxidised PRDX (isoforms I-IV) protein expression before, during, and 30 min following exercise (post + 30). The activities of TRX reductase (TRX-R) and the nuclear factor kappa B (NF-κB) p65 subunit were also assessed. Results. TRX-1 increased during exercise in all trials (MOD, + 84.5%; HIGH, + 64.1%; LV-HIIT, + 205.7%; p < 05), whereas over-oxidised PRDX increased during HIGH only (MOD, - 28.7%; HIGH, + 202.9%; LV-HIIT, - 22.7%; p < .05). TRX-R and NF-κB p65 activity increased during exercise in all trials, with the greatest response in TRX-R activity seen in HIGH (p < 0.05). Discussion. All trials stimulated a transient increase in TRX-1 protein expression during exercise. Only HIGH induced a transient over-oxidation of PRDX, alongside the greatest change in TRX-R activity. Future studies are needed to clarify the significance of heightened peroxide exposure during continuous high-intensity exercise and the mechanisms of PRDX-regulatory control.

Whole body vibration treatments in postmenopausal women can improve bone mineral density:results of a stimulus focussed meta-analysis

Whole body vibration treatment is a non-pharmacological intervention intended to stimulate muscular response and increase bone mineral density, particularly for postmenopausal women. The literature related to this topic is controversial, heterogeneous, and unclear despite the prospect of a major clinical effect. The aim of this study was to identify and systematically review the literature to assess the effect of whole body vibration treatments on bone mineral density (BMD) in postmenopausal women with a specific focus on the experimental factors that influence the stimulus. Nine studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria, including 527 postmenopausal women and different vibration delivery designs. Cumulative dose, amplitudes and frequency of treatments as well as subject posture during treatment vary widely among studies. Some of the studies included an associated exercise training regime. Both randomized and controlled clinical trials were included. Whole body vibration was shown to produce significant BMD improvements on the hip and spine when compared to no intervention. Conversely, treatment associated with exercise training resulted in negligible outcomes when compared to exercise training or to placebo. Moreover, side-alternating platforms were more effective in improving BMD values than synchronous platforms and mechanical oscillations of magnitude higher than 3 g and/or frequency lower than 25 Hz were also found to be effective. Treatments with a cumulative dose over 1000 minutes in the follow-up period were correlated to positive outcomes. Our conclusion is that whole body vibration treatments in elderly women can reduce BMD decline.However, many factors (e.g. amplitude, frequency and subject posture) affect the capacity of the vibrations to propagate to the target site; the adequate level of stimulation required to produce these effects has not yet been defined. Further biomechanical analyses to predict the propagation of the vibration waves along the body and assess the stimulation levels are required.