Portfolio diversification and filter rule profits

Previously, it has been shown that the profits from a simple market timing trading rule applied to a portfolio of shares can be affected by the inter-relationships between the returns of the component securities. In this short letter, the results from applying a more sophisticated 'filter' rule to the same data are reported. Unlike the simple trading rule, the filter rule does produce some evidence of economic profits.

The impact of portfolio diversification on trading rule profits:some evidence for UK share portfolios

This paper demonstrates how the autocorrelation structure of UK portfolio returns is linked to dynamic interrelationships among the component securities of that portfolio. Moreover, portfolio return autocorrelation is shown to be an increasing function of the number of securities in the portfolio. Since the security interrelationships seemed to be more a product of their history of non-synchronous trading than of systematic industry-related phenomena, it should not be possible to exploit the high levels of return persistence using trading rules. We show that rules designed to exploit this portfolio autocorrelation structure do not produce economic profits.

IPOs, clustering, indirect learning and filing independently

IPO underpricing has been attributed to valuation uncertainty, which can be at least partially resolved by the indirect learning associated with IPO clustering [Benveniste, L.M., Ljungqvist, A., Wilhelm, W.J., Yu, X.Y., 2003. Evidence of information spillovers in the production of investment banking services. Journal of Finance 58, 577–608]. We examine why firms might choose not to issue their IPOs contemporaneously with clusters of similar firms, forgoing opportunities to learn from their peers. We find that the willingness to file an IPO without the benefit of indirect learning from peer firm IPOs is directly related to insiders’ needs for portfolio diversification and the firm’s need to raise capital.

Optimal geographic diversification and firm performance:evidence from the U.K.

This paper examines the relationship between multinationality and firm performance. The analysis is based on a sample of over 400 UK multinationals, and encompasses both service sector and manufacturing sector multinationals. This paper confirms the non-linear relationship between performance and multinationality that is reported elsewhere in the literature, but offers further analysis of this relationship. Specifically, by correcting for endogeneity in the investment decision, and for shocks in productivity across countries, the paper demonstrates that the returns to multinationality are greater than those that have been reported elsewhere, and persist to higher degrees of international diversification.

Technological diversification within UK’s small serial innovators

This paper investigates the determinants of technological diversification among UK’s small serial innovators (SSIs). Using a longitudinal study of 339 UK-based small businesses accounting for almost 7000 patents between 1990 and 2006, this study constitutes the first empirical examination of technological diversification among SMEs in the literature. Results demonstrate that technological diversification is not solely a large firm activity, challenging the dominant view that innovative SMEs are extremely focused and specialised players with little technological diversification. Our findings suggest a nonlinear (i.e. inverse-U-shaped) relationship between the level of technological opportunities in the environment and the SSIs’ degree of technological diversification. This points to a trade-off between processes of exploration and exploitation across increasingly volatile technology regimes. The paper also demonstrates that small firms with impactful innovations focus their innovative activity around similar technological capabilities while firms that have introduced platform technologies in the past are more likely to engage in technological diversification.

The management of diversification in a large industrial company

This work is the result of an action-research-type study of the diversification effort of part of a major U.K. industrial company. Work in contingency theory concerning the impact of environmental factors on organizational design, and the systemic model of viable systems put forward by Stafford Beer form the theoretical basis of the vvork. The two streams of thought are compared and found to offer similar conclusions about the design of effective organizations. These findings are taken as the framework for an analysis both of organization structures for promoting innovation described in the literature, and of those employed by the company for this purpose in recent years. Much attention is given to the use of venture groups, and conclusions are drawn on particular factors which may influence their success or failure. Both theoretical considerations, and the examination of the company' s recent experience suggested that the formation of the policy of diversification, as well as the method of implementation of the police, might affect its outcorre. Attention is therefore focused on the policy-making and planning process, and in particular on possible problems that this process could generate in a multi-division company. The view finally taken of diversification effort is that it should be regarded as a learning system. This view helps to expose some ambiguities in the concepts of success and failure in this area, and demonstrates considerable weaknesses in traditional project evaluation procedures.

Liquidity and portfolio optimisation

This thesis presents research within empirical financial economics with focus on liquidity and portfolio optimisation in the stock market. The discussion on liquidity is focused on measurement issues, including TAQ data processing and measurement of systematic liquidity factors (FSO). Furthermore, a framework for treatment of the two topics in combination is provided. The liquidity part of the thesis gives a conceptual background to liquidity and discusses several different approaches to liquidity measurement. It contributes to liquidity measurement by providing detailed guidelines on the data processing needed for applying TAQ data to liquidity research. The main focus, however, is the derivation of systematic liquidity factors. The principal component approach to systematic liquidity measurement is refined by the introduction of moving and expanding estimation windows, allowing for time-varying liquidity co-variances between stocks. Under several liability specifications, this improves the ability to explain stock liquidity and returns, as compared to static window PCA and market average approximations of systematic liquidity. The highest ability to explain stock returns is obtained when using inventory cost as a liquidity measure and a moving window PCA as the systematic liquidity derivation technique. Systematic factors of this setting also have a strong ability in explaining a cross-sectional liquidity variation. Portfolio optimisation in the FSO framework is tested in two empirical studies. These contribute to the assessment of FSO by expanding the applicability to stock indexes and individual stocks, by considering a wide selection of utility function specifications, and by showing explicitly how the full-scale optimum can be identified using either grid search or the heuristic search algorithm of differential evolution. The studies show that relative to mean-variance portfolios, FSO performs well in these settings and that the computational expense can be mitigated dramatically by application of differential evolution.

Technological diversification and new innovators in European regions:evidence from patent data

This paper assesses the impact of regional technological diversification on the emergence of new innovators across EU regions. Integrating analyses from regional economics, economic geography and technological change literatures, we explore the role that the regional embeddedness of actors characterised by diverse technological competencies may have in fostering novel and sustained interactions leading to new technological combinations. In particular, we test whether greater technological diversification improve regional ‘combinatorial’ opportunities leading to the emergence of new innovators. The analysis is based on panel data obtained merging regional economic data from Eurostat and patent data from the CRIOS-PATSTAT database over the period 1997–2006, covering 178 regions across 10 EU Countries. Accounting for different measures of economic and innovative activity at the NUTS2 level, our findings suggest that the regional co-location of diverse technological competencies contributes to the entry of new innovators, thereby shaping technological change and industry dynamics. Thus, this paper brings to the fore a better understanding of the relationship between regional diversity and technological change.

Challenging market conventions:supermarket diversification and consumer resistance in children's apparel purchases

Purpose – In the UK, while fashion apparel purchasing is available to the majority of consumers, the main supermarkets seem – rather against the odds and market conventions – to have created a new, socially-acceptable and legitimate, apparel market offer for young children. This study aims to explore parental purchasing decisions on apparel for young children (below ten years old) focusing on supermarket diversification into apparel and consumer resistance against other traditional brands. Design/methodology/approach – Data collection adopted a qualitative research mode: using semi-structured interviews in two locations (Cornwall Please correct and check againand Glasgow), each with a Tesco and ASDA located outside towns. A total of 59 parents participated in the study. Interviews took place in the stores, with parents seen buying children fashion apparel. Findings – The findings suggest that decisions are based not only on functionality (e.g. convenience, value for money, refund policy), but also on intuitive factors (e.g. style, image, quality) as well as broader processes of consumption from parental boundary setting (e.g. curbing premature adultness). Positive consumer resistance is leading to a re-drawing of the cultural boundaries of fashion. In some cases, concerns are expressed regarding items that seem too adult-like or otherwise not as children's apparel should be. Practical implications – The paper highlights the increasing importance of browsing as a modern choice practice (e.g. planned impulse buying, sanctuary of social activity). Particular attention is given to explaining why consumers positively resist buying from traditional label providers and voluntarily choose supermarket clothing ranges without any concerns over their children wearing such garments. Originality/value – The paper shows that supermarket shopping for children's apparel is now firmly part of UK consumption habits and choice. The findings provide theoretical insights into the significance of challenging market conventions, parental cultural boundary setting and positive resistance behaviour.

Portfolio analysis

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Integrating skills profiling and purchasing portfolio management:an opportunity for building purchasing capability

Kralijc’s (1983) purchasing portfolio approach holds that different types of purchases need different sourcing strategies, underpinned by distinct sets of resources and practices. The approach is widely deployed in business and extensively researched, and yet little research has been conducted on how knowledge and skills vary across a portfolio of purchases. This study extends the body of knowledge on purchasing portfolio management, and its application in the strategic development of purchasing in an organization, and on human resource management in the purchasing function. A novel approach to profiling purchasing skills is proposed, which is well suited to dynamic environments which require flexibility. In a survey, experienced purchasing personnel described a specific purchase and profiled the skills required for effective performance in purchasing that item. Purchases were categorized according to their importance to the organization (internally-oriented evaluation of cost and production factors) and to the supply market (externally-oriented evaluation of commercial risk and uncertainty). Through cluster analysis three key types of purchase situations were identified. The skills required for effective purchasing vary significantly across the three clusters (for 22 skills, p<0.01). Prior research shows that global organizations use the purchasing portfolio approach to develop sourcing strategies, but also aggregate analyses to inform the design of purchasing arrangements (local vs global) and to develop their improvement plans. Such organizations would also benefit from profiling skills by purchase type. We demonstrate how the survey can be adapted to provide a management tool for global firms seeking to improve procurement capability, flexibility and performance.

Illiquidity shocks and the comovement between stocks:new evidence using smooth transition

This paper extends the smooth transition conditional correlation model by studying for the first time the impact that illiquidity shocks have on stock market return comovement. We show that firms that experience shocks that increase illiquidity are less liquid than firms that experience shocks that decrease illiquidity. Shocks that increase illiquidity have no statistical impact on comovement. However, shocks that reduce illiquidity lead to a fall in comovement, a pattern that becomes stronger as the illiquidity of the firm increases. This discovery is consistent with increased transparency and an improvement in price efficiency. We find that a small number of firms experience a double illiquidity shock. For these firms, at the first shock, a rise in illiquidity reduces comovement while a fall in illiquidity raises comovement. The second shock partly reverses these changes as a rise in illiquidity is associated with a rise in comovement and a fall in illiquidity is associated with a fall in comovement. These results have important implications for portfolio construction and also for the measurement and evolution of market beta and the cost of capital as it suggests that investors can achieve higher returns for the same amount of market risk because of the greater diversification benefits that exist. We also find that illiquidity, friction, firm size and the pre-shock correlation are all associated with the magnitude of the correlation change. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Portfolio size, non-trading frequency and portfolio return autocorrelation

In this paper we re-examine the relationship between non-trading frequency and portfolio return autocorrelation. We show that in portfolios where security specific effects have not been completely diversified, portfolio autocorrelation will not increase monotonically with increasing non-trading, as indicated in Lo and MacKinlay (1990). We show that at high levels of non-trading, portfolio autocorrelation will become a decreasing function of non-trading probability and may take negative values. We find that heterogeneity among the means, variances and betas of the component securities in a portfolio can act to increase the induced autocorrelation, particularly in portfolios containing fewer stocks. Security specific effects remain even when the number of securities in the portfolio is far in excess of that considered necessary to diversify security risk. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

The influence of diversification and market structure on the R&D intensity of large Australian firms

This article empirically investigates the determinants of R&D intensity for large Australian firms (1994–1997). The results indicate that more focused firms have higher R&D intensities and that lower levels of industry competition are associated with lower R&D intensities.