Approximately optimal experimental design for heteroscedastic Gaussian process models

This paper presents a greedy Bayesian experimental design criterion for heteroscedastic Gaussian process models. The criterion is based on the Fisher information and is optimal in the sense of minimizing parameter uncertainty for likelihood based estimators. We demonstrate the validity of the criterion under different noise regimes and present experimental results from a rabies simulator to demonstrate the effectiveness of the resulting approximately optimal designs.

A novel technique for polarisation mode dispersion measurements in optical fibres

A novel technique for determining the polarisation mode dispersion in optical fibres is described. The technique makes use of a sinusoidally frequency modulated source, and is applied to the measurement of the beat length of highly birefringent monomode fibre. The temporal delay between the two modes of the fibre is measured with a resolution of approximately ±0.6 ps.

Stand-alone groundwater desalination system using reverse osmosis combined with a cooled greenhouse for use in arid and semi-arid zones of India

In many areas of northern India, salinity renders groundwater unsuitable for drinking and even for irrigation. Though membrane treatment can be used to remove the salt, there are some drawbacks to this approach e.g. (1) depletion of the groundwater due to over-abstraction, (2) saline contamination of surface water and soil caused by concentrate disposal and (3) high electricity usage. To address these issues, a system is proposed in which a photovoltaic-powered reverse osmosis (RO) system is used to irrigate a greenhouse (GH) in a stand-alone arrangement. The concentrate from the RO is supplied to an evaporative cooling system, thus reducing the volume of the concentrate so that finally it can be evaporated in a pond to solid for safe disposal. Based on typical meteorological data for Delhi, calculations based on mass and energy balance are presented to assess the sizing and cost of the system. It is shown that solar radiation, freshwater output and evapotranspiration demand are readily matched due to the approximately linear relation among these variables. The demand for concentrate varies independently, however, thus favouring the use of a variable recovery arrangement. Though enough water may be harvested from the GH roof to provide year-round irrigation, this would require considerable storage. Some practical options for storage tanks are discussed. An alternative use of rainwater is in misting to reduce peak temperatures in the summer. An example optimised design provides internal temperatures below 30EC (monthly average daily maxima) for 8 months of the year and costs about €36,000 for the whole system with GH floor area of 1000 m2 . Further work is needed to assess technical risks relating to scale-deposition in the membrane and evaporative pads, and to develop a business model that will allow such a project to succeed in the Indian rural context.

The SECURE study:long-term safety of Ranibizumab 0.5 mg in neovascular age-related macular degeneration

Objective - To evaluate long-term safety of intravitreal ranibizumab 0.5-mg injections in neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD). Design - Twenty-four–month, open-label, multicenter, phase IV extension study. Participants - Two hundred thirty-four patients previously treated with ranibizumab for 12 months in the EXCITE/SUSTAIN study. Methods - Ranibizumab 0.5 mg administered at the investigator's discretion as per the European summary of product characteristics 2007 (SmPC, i.e., ranibizumab was administered if a patient experienced a best-corrected visual acuity [BCVA] loss of >5 Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study letters measured against the highest visual acuity [VA] value obtained in SECURE or previous studies [EXCITE and SUSTAIN], attributable to the presence or progression of active nAMD in the investigator's opinion). Main Outcome Measures - Incidence of ocular or nonocular adverse events (AEs) and serious AEs, mean change in BCVA from baseline over time, and the number of injections. Results - Of 234 enrolled patients, 210 (89.7%) completed the study. Patients received 6.1 (mean) ranibizumab injections over 24 months. Approximately 42% of patients had 7 or more visits at which ranibizumab was not administered, although they had experienced a VA loss of more than 5 letters, indicating either an undertreatment or that factors other than VA loss were considered for retreatment decision by the investigator. The most frequent ocular AEs (study eye) were retinal hemorrhage (12.8%; 1 event related to study drug), cataract (11.5%; 1 event related to treatment procedure), and increased intraocular pressure (6.4%; 1 event related to study drug). Cataract reported as serious due to hospitalization for cataract surgery occurred in 2.6% of patients; none was suspected to be related to study drug or procedure. Main nonocular AEs were hypertension and nasopharyngitis (9.0% each). Arterial thromboembolic events were reported in 5.6% of the patients. Five (2.1%) deaths occurred during the study, none related to the study drug or procedure. At month 24, mean BCVA declined by 4.3 letters from the SECURE baseline. Conclusions - The SECURE study showed that ranibizumab administered as per a VA-guided flexible dosing regimen recommended in the European ranibizumab SmPC at the investigator's discretion was well tolerated over 2 years. No new safety signals were identified in patients who received ranibizumab for a total of 3 years. On average, patients lost BCVA from the SECURE study baseline, which may be the result of disease progression or possible undertreatment.

Alpha helical trans-membrane proteins:enhanced prediction using a Bayesian approach

Membrane proteins, which constitute approximately 20% of most genomes, are poorly tractable targets for experimental structure determination, thus analysis by prediction and modelling makes an important contribution to their on-going study. Membrane proteins form two main classes: alpha helical and beta barrel trans-membrane proteins. By using a method based on Bayesian Networks, which provides a flexible and powerful framework for statistical inference, we addressed alpha-helical topology prediction. This method has accuracies of 77.4% for prokaryotic proteins and 61.4% for eukaryotic proteins. The method described here represents an important advance in the computational determination of membrane protein topology and offers a useful, and complementary, tool for the analysis of membrane proteins for a range of applications.