Neural control of a batch distillation

The purpose of the work reported here was to investigate the application of neural control to a common industrial process. The chosen problem was the control of a batch distillation. In the first phase towards deployment, a complex software simulation of the process was controlled. Initially, the plant was modelled with a neural emulator. The neural emulator was used to train a neural controller using the backpropagation through time algorithm. A high accuracy was achieved with the emulator after a large number of training epochs. The controller converged more rapidly, but its performance varied more widely over its operating range. However, the controlled system was relatively robust to changes in ambient conditions.

Variational mean-field algorithm for efficient inference in large systems of stochastic differential equations

This work introduces a Gaussian variational mean-field approximation for inference in dynamical systems which can be modeled by ordinary stochastic differential equations. This new approach allows one to express the variational free energy as a functional of the marginal moments of the approximating Gaussian process. A restriction of the moment equations to piecewise polynomial functions, over time, dramatically reduces the complexity of approximate inference for stochastic differential equation models and makes it comparable to that of discrete time hidden Markov models. The algorithm is demonstrated on state and parameter estimation for nonlinear problems with up to 1000 dimensional state vectors and compares the results empirically with various well-known inference methodologies.

Time trials on second-order and variable-learning-rate algorithms

The performance of seven minimization algorithms are compared on five neural network problems. These include a variable-step-size algorithm, conjugate gradient, and several methods with explicit analytic or numerical approximations to the Hessian.

Neural networks for time-varying data

This paper reviews some basic issues and methods involved in using neural networks to respond in a desired fashion to a temporally-varying environment. Some popular network models and training methods are introduced. A speech recognition example is then used to illustrate the central difficulty of temporal data processing: learning to notice and remember relevant contextual information. Feedforward network methods are applicable to cases where this problem is not severe. The application of these methods are explained and applications are discussed in the areas of pure mathematics, chemical and physical systems, and economic systems. A more powerful but less practical algorithm for temporal problems, the moving targets algorithm, is sketched and discussed. For completeness, a few remarks are made on reinforcement learning.

The 'moving targets' training algorithm

A simple method for training the dynamical behavior of a neural network is derived. It is applicable to any training problem in discrete-time networks with arbitrary feedback. The algorithm resembles back-propagation in that an error function is minimized using a gradient-based method, but the optimization is carried out in the hidden part of state space either instead of, or in addition to weight space. Computational results are presented for some simple dynamical training problems, one of which requires response to a signal 100 time steps in the past.

The 'moving targets' training algorithm

A simple method for training the dynamical behavior of a neural network is derived. It is applicable to any training problem in discrete-time networks with arbitrary feedback. The method resembles back-propagation in that it is a least-squares, gradient-based optimization method, but the optimization is carried out in the hidden part of state space instead of weight space. A straightforward adaptation of this method to feedforward networks offers an alternative to training by conventional back-propagation. Computational results are presented for simple dynamical training problems, with varied success. The failures appear to arise when the method converges to a chaotic attractor. A patch-up for this problem is proposed. The patch-up involves a technique for implementing inequality constraints which may be of interest in its own right.

Tracking of non-stationary time-series using resource allocating RBF networks

In this paper, we discuss some practical implications for implementing adaptable network algorithms applied to non-stationary time series problems. Using electricity load data and training with the extended Kalman filter, we demonstrate that the dynamic model-order increment procedure of the resource allocating RBF network (RAN) is highly sensitive to the parameters of the novelty criterion. We investigate the use of system noise and forgetting factors for increasing the plasticity of the Kalman filter training algorithm, and discuss the consequences for on-line model order selection. We also find that a recently-proposed alternative novelty criterion, found to be more robust in stationary environments, does not fare so well in the non-stationary case due to the need for filter adaptability during training.

GTM through time

The standard GTM (generative topographic mapping) algorithm assumes that the data on which it is trained consists of independent, identically distributed (iid) vectors. For time series, however, the iid assumption is a poor approximation. In this paper we show how the GTM algorithm can be extended to model time series by incorporating it as the emission density in a hidden Markov model. Since GTM has discrete hidden states we are able to find a tractable EM algorithm, based on the forward-backward algorithm, to train the model. We illustrate the performance of GTM through time using flight recorder data from a helicopter.

Analysing time series structure with hidden Markov models

This paper consides the problem of extracting the relationships between two time series in a non-linear non-stationary environment with Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). We describe an algorithm which is capable of identifying associations between variables. The method is applied both to synthetic data and real data. We show that HMMs are capable of modelling the oil drilling process and that they outperform existing methods.

Delay estimation for multivariate time series

Most traditional methods for extracting the relationships between two time series are based on cross-correlation. In a non-linear non-stationary environment, these techniques are not sufficient. We show in this paper how to use hidden Markov models (HMMs) to identify the lag (or delay) between different variables for such data. We first present a method using maximum likelihood estimation and propose a simple algorithm which is capable of identifying associations between variables. We also adopt an information-theoretic approach and develop a novel procedure for training HMMs to maximise the mutual information between delayed time series. Both methods are successfully applied to real data. We model the oil drilling process with HMMs and estimate a crucial parameter, namely the lag for return.

Modelling financial time series with switching state space models

The deficiencies of stationary models applied to financial time series are well documented. A special form of non-stationarity, where the underlying generator switches between (approximately) stationary regimes, seems particularly appropriate for financial markets. We use a dynamic switching (modelled by a hidden Markov model) combined with a linear dynamical system in a hybrid switching state space model (SSSM) and discuss the practical details of training such models with a variational EM algorithm due to [Ghahramani and Hilton,1998]. The performance of the SSSM is evaluated on several financial data sets and it is shown to improve on a number of existing benchmark methods.

A hybrid genetic algorithm for the multi-depot vehicle routing problem

The distribution of finished products from depots to customers is a practical and challenging problem in logistics management. Better routing and scheduling decisions can result in higher level of customer satisfaction because more customers can be served in a shorter time. The distribution problem is generally formulated as the vehicle routing problem (VRP). Nevertheless, there is a rigid assumption that there is only one depot. In cases, for instance, where a logistics company has more than one depot, the VRP is not suitable. To resolve this limitation, this paper focuses on the VRP with multiple depots, or multi-depot VRP (MDVRP). The MDVRP is NP-hard, which means that an efficient algorithm for solving the problem to optimality is unavailable. To deal with the problem efficiently, two hybrid genetic algorithms (HGAs) are developed in this paper. The major difference between the HGAs is that the initial solutions are generated randomly in HGA1. The Clarke and Wright saving method and the nearest neighbor heuristic are incorporated into HGA2 for the initialization procedure. A computational study is carried out to compare the algorithms with different problem sizes. It is proved that the performance of HGA2 is superior to that of HGA1 in terms of the total delivery time.

Component scheduling for chip shooter machines: a hybrid genetic algorithm approach

A chip shooter machine for electronic component assembly has a movable feeder carrier, a movable X–Y table carrying a printed circuit board (PCB), and a rotary turret with multiple assembly heads. This paper presents a hybrid genetic algorithm (HGA) to optimize the sequence of component placements and the arrangement of component types to feeders simultaneously for a chip shooter machine, that is, the component scheduling problem. The objective of the problem is to minimize the total assembly time. The GA developed in the paper hybridizes different search heuristics including the nearest-neighbor heuristic, the 2-opt heuristic, and an iterated swap procedure, which is a new improved heuristic. Compared with the results obtained by other researchers, the performance of the HGA is superior in terms of the assembly time. Scope and purpose When assembling the surface mount components on a PCB, it is necessary to obtain the optimal sequence of component placements and the best arrangement of component types to feeders simultaneously in order to minimize the total assembly time. Since it is very difficult to obtain the optimality, a GA hybridized with several search heuristics is developed. The type of machines being studied is the chip shooter machine. This paper compares the algorithm with a simple GA. It shows that the performance of the algorithm is superior to that of the simple GA in terms of the total assembly time.

A genetic algorithm approach to optimising component placement and retrieval sequence for chip shooter machines

A chip shooter machine in printed circuit board (PCB) assembly has three movable mechanisms: an X-Y table carrying a PCB, a feeder carrier with several feeders holding components and a rotary turret with multiple assembly heads to pick up and place components. In order to get the minimal placement or assembly time for a PCB on the machine, all the components on the board should be placed in a perfect sequence, and the components should be set up on a right feeder, or feeders since two feeders can hold the same type of components, and additionally, the assembly head should retrieve or pick up a component from a right feeder. The entire problem is very complicated, and this paper presents a genetic algorithm approach to tackle it.

A hybrid genetic algorithm for component sequencing and feeder arrangement

This paper presents a hybrid genetic algorithm to optimize the sequence of component placements on a printed circuit board and the arrangement of component types to feeders simultaneously for a pick-and-place machine with multiple stationary feeders, a fixed board table and a movable placement head. The objective of the problem is to minimize the total travelling distance, or the travelling time, of the placement head. The genetic algorithm developed in the paper hybrisizes different search heuristics including the nearest neighbor heuristic, the 2-opt heuristic, and an iterated swap procedure, which is a new improving heuristic. Compared with the results obtained by other researchers, the performance of the hybrid genetic algorithm is superior to others in terms of the distance travelled by the placement head.