Perception of risk, feelings of vulnerability and effects on driving behaviour in women drivers across the lifespan.

Sustained driving in older age has implications for quality of life and mental health. Studies have shown that despite the recognised importance of driving in maintaining health and social engagement, many women give up driving prematurely or adopt self-imposed restrictive driving practices. Emotional responses to driving have been implicated in these decisions. This research examined the effect of risk perception and feelings of vulnerability on women’s driving behaviour across the lifespan. It also developed and tested a modified theory of planned behaviour intervention to positively affect driving habits. The first two studies (N=395) used quantitative analysis to model driving behaviours affected by risk perception and feelings of vulnerability, and established that feelings of vulnerability do indeed affect women’s driving behaviour, specifically resulting in increases in driving avoidance and the adoption of maladaptive driving styles. Further, that self-regulation, conceptualised as avoidance, is used by drivers across the lifespan. Qualitative analysis of focus group data (N=48) in the third study provided a deeper understanding of the variations in coping behaviours adopted by sub-groups of drivers and extended the definition of self-regulation to incorporate adaptive coping strategies. The next study (N=64) reported the construction and preliminary validation of the novel self-regulation index (SRI) to measure wider self-regulation behaviours using an objective measure of driving behaviour, a simulated driving task. The understanding gained from the formative research was used in the final study, an extended theory of planned behaviour intervention to promote wider self-regulation behaviour, measured using the previously validated self-regulation index. The intervention achieved moderate success with changes in affective attitude and normative beliefs as well as self-reported behaviour. The results offer promise for self-regulation, incorporating a spectrum of planning and coping behaviours, to be used as a mechanism to assist drivers in achieving their personal mobility goals whilst promoting safe driving.

MEG responses to the perception of global structure within glass patterns

The perception of global form requires integration of local visual cues across space and is the foundation for object recognition. Here we used magnetoencephalography (MEG) to study the location and time course of neuronal activity associated with the perception of global structure from local image features. To minimize neuronal activity to low-level stimulus properties, such as luminance and contrast, the local image features were held constant during all phases of the MEG recording. This allowed us to assess the relative importance of striate (V1) versus extrastriate cortex in global form perception.

Selection and application of risk management tools and techniques for build-operate-transfer projects

Construction projects are risky. However, the characteristics of the risk highly depend on the type of procurement being adopted for managing the project. A build-operate-transfer (BOT) project is recognized as one of the most risky project schemes. There are instances of project failure where a BOT scheme was employed. Ineffective rts are increasingly being managed using various risk management tools and techniques. However, application of those tools depends on the nature of the project, organization's policy, project management strategy, risk attitude of the project team members, and availability of the resources. Understanding of the contents and contexts of BOT projects, together with a thorough understanding of risk management tools and techniques, helps select processes of risk management for effective project implementation in a BOT scheme. This paper studies application of risk management tools and techniques in BOT projects through reviews of relevant literatures and develops a model for selecting risk management process for BOT projects. The application to BOT projects is considered from the viewpoints of the major project participants. Discussion is also made with regard to political risks. This study would contribute to the establishment of a framework for systematic risk management in BOT projects.

Cortical oscillatory activity associated with the perception of illusory and real visual contours

We used magnetoencephalography (MEG) to examine the nature of oscillatory brain rhythms when passively viewing both illusory and real visual contours. Three stimuli were employed: a Kanizsa triangle; a Kanizsa triangle with a real triangular contour superimposed; and a control figure in which the corner elements used to form the Kanizsa triangle were rotated to negate the formation of illusory contours. The MEG data were analysed using synthetic aperture magnetometry (SAM) to enable the spatial localisation of task-related oscillatory power changes within specific frequency bands, and the time-course of activity within given locations-of-interest was determined by calculating time-frequency plots using a Morlet wavelet transform. In contrast to earlier studies, we did not find increases in gamma activity (> 30 Hz) to illusory shapes, but instead a decrease in 10–30 Hz activity approximately 200 ms after stimulus presentation. The reduction in oscillatory activity was primarily evident within extrastriate areas, including the lateral occipital complex (LOC). Importantly, this same pattern of results was evident for each stimulus type. Our results further highlight the importance of the LOC and a network of posterior brain regions in processing visual contours, be they illusory or real in nature. The similarity of the results for both real and illusory contours, however, leads us to conclude that the broadband (< 30 Hz) decrease in power we observed is more likely to reflect general changes in visual attention than neural computations specific to processing visual contours.

Colour and luminance interactions in the visual perception of motion

We sought to determine the extent to which red–green, colour–opponent mechanisms in the human visual system play a role in the perception of drifting luminance–modulated targets. Contrast sensitivity for the directional discrimination of drifting luminance–modulated (yellow–black) test sinusoids was measured following adaptation to isoluminant red–green sinusoids drifting in either the same or opposite direction. When the test and adapt stimuli drifted in the same direction, large sensitivity losses were evident at all test temporal frequencies employed (1–16 Hz). The magnitude of the loss was independent of temporal frequency. When adapt and test stimuli drifted in opposing directions, large sensitivity losses were evident at lower temporal frequencies (1–4 Hz) and declined with increasing temporal frequency. Control studies showed that this temporal–frequency–dependent effect could not reflect the activity of achromatic units. Our results provide evidence that chromatic mechanisms contribute to the perception of luminance–modulated motion targets drifting at speeds of up to at least 32°s-1. We argue that such mechanisms most probably lie within a parvocellular–dominated cortical visual pathway, sensitive to both chromatic and luminance modulation, but only weakly selective for the direction of stimulus motion.

Comparison of estimates and calculations of risk of coronary heart disease by doctors and nurses using different calculation tools in general practice: cross sectional study

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of using different risk calculation tools on how general practitioners and practice nurses evaluate the risk of coronary heart disease with clinical data routinely available in patients' records. DESIGN: Subjective estimates of the risk of coronary heart disease and results of four different methods of calculation of risk were compared with each other and a reference standard that had been calculated with the Framingham equation; calculations were based on a sample of patients' records, randomly selected from groups at risk of coronary heart disease. SETTING: General practices in central England. PARTICIPANTS: 18 general practitioners and 18 practice nurses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Agreement of results of risk estimation and risk calculation with reference calculation; agreement of general practitioners with practice nurses; sensitivity and specificity of the different methods of risk calculation to detect patients at high or low risk of coronary heart disease. RESULTS: Only a minority of patients' records contained all of the risk factors required for the formal calculation of the risk of coronary heart disease (concentrations of high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol were present in only 21%). Agreement of risk calculations with the reference standard was moderate (kappa=0.33-0.65 for practice nurses and 0.33 to 0.65 for general practitioners, depending on calculation tool), showing a trend for underestimation of risk. Moderate agreement was seen between the risks calculated by general practitioners and practice nurses for the same patients (kappa=0.47 to 0.58). The British charts gave the most sensitive results for risk of coronary heart disease (practice nurses 79%, general practitioners 80%), and it also gave the most specific results for practice nurses (100%), whereas the Sheffield table was the most specific method for general practitioners (89%). CONCLUSIONS: Routine calculation of the risk of coronary heart disease in primary care is hampered by poor availability of data on risk factors. General practitioners and practice nurses are able to evaluate the risk of coronary heart disease with only moderate accuracy. Data about risk factors need to be collected systematically, to allow the use of the most appropriate calculation tools.

The spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of brain regions activated during the perception of object and non-object patterns

Both animal and human studies suggest that the efficiency with which we are able to grasp objects is attributable to a repertoire of motor signals derived directly from vision. This is in general agreement with the long-held belief that the automatic generation of motor signals by the perception of objects is based on the actions they afford. In this study, we used magnetoencephalography (MEG) to determine the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of brain regions activated during passive viewing of object and non-object targets that varied in the extent to which they afforded a grasping action. Synthetic Aperture Magnetometry (SAM) was used to localize task-related oscillatory power changes within specific frequency bands, and the time course of activity within given regions-of-interest was determined by calculating time-frequency plots using a Morlet wavelet transform. Both single subject and group-averaged data on the spatial distribution of brain activity are presented. We show that: (i) significant reductions in 10-25 Hz activity within extrastriate cortex, occipito-temporal cortex, sensori-motor cortex and cerebellum were evident with passive viewing of both objects and non-objects; and (ii) reductions in oscillatory activity within the posterior part of the superior parietal cortex (area Ba7) were only evident with the perception of objects. Assuming that focal reductions in low-frequency oscillations (< 30 Hz) reflect areas of heightened neural activity, we conclude that: (i) activity within a network of brain areas, including the sensori-motor cortex, is not critically dependent on stimulus type and may reflect general changes in visual attention; and (ii) the posterior part of the superior parietal cortex, area Ba7, is activated preferentially by objects and may play a role in computations related to grasping. © 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Perception of concurrent sentences with harmonic or frequency-shifted voiced excitation:performance of human listeners and of computational models based on autocorrelation

Keyword identification in one of two simultaneous sentences is improved when the sentences differ in F0, particularly when they are almost continuously voiced. Sentences of this kind were recorded, monotonised using PSOLA, and re-synthesised to give a range of harmonic ?F0s (0, 1, 3, and 10 semitones). They were additionally re-synthesised by LPC with the LPC residual frequency shifted by 25% of F0, to give excitation with inharmonic but regularly spaced components. Perceptual identification of frequency-shifted sentences showed a similar large improvement with nominal ?F0 as seen for harmonic sentences, although overall performance was about 10% poorer. We compared performance with that of two autocorrelation-based computational models comprising four stages: (i) peripheral frequency selectivity and half-wave rectification; (ii) within-channel periodicity extraction; (iii) identification of the two major peaks in the summary autocorrelation function (SACF); (iv) a template-based approach to speech recognition using dynamic time warping. One model sampled the correlogram at the target-F0 period and performed spectral matching; the other deselected channels dominated by the interferer and performed matching on the short-lag portion of the residual SACF. Both models reproduced the monotonic increase observed in human performance with increasing ?F0 for the harmonic stimuli, but not for the frequency-shifted stimuli. A revised version of the spectral-matching model, which groups patterns of periodicity that lie on a curve in the frequency-delay plane, showed a closer match to the perceptual data for frequency-shifted sentences. The results extend the range of phenomena originally attributed to harmonic processing to grouping by common spectral pattern.

Extrinsic factors in the perception of bistable motion stimuli

When viewing a drifting plaid stimulus, perceived motion alternates over time between coherent pattern motion and a transparent impression of the two component gratings. It is known that changing the intrinsic attributes of such patterns (e.g. speed, orientation and spatial frequency of components) can influence percept predominance. Here, we investigate the contribution of extrinsic factors to perception; specifically contextual motion and eye movements. In the first experiment, the percept most similar to the speed and direction of surround motion increased in dominance, implying a tuned integration process. This shift primarily involved an increase in dominance durations of the consistent percept. The second experiment measured eye movements under similar conditions. Saccades were not associated with perceptual transitions, though blink rate increased around the time of a switch. This indicates that saccades do not cause switches, yet saccades in a congruent direction might help to prolong a percept because i) more saccades were directionally congruent with the currently reported percept than expected by chance, and ii) when observers were asked to make deliberate eye movements along one motion axis, this increased percept reports in that direction. Overall, we find evidence that perception of bistable motion can be modulated by information from spatially adjacent regions, and changes to the retinal image caused by blinks and saccades.

Real options and multinational investments : an empirical study of risk, performance and organisational awareness

DUE TO COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SERVICES WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT This thesis is a cross-disciplinary study of the empirical impact of real options theory in the fields of decision sciences and performance management. Borrowing from the economics, strategy and operations research literature, the research examines the risk and performance implications of real options in firms’ strategic investments and multinational operations. An emphasis is placed on the flexibility potential and competitive advantage of multinational corporations to explore the extent to which real options analysis can be classified as best practice in management research. Using a combination of qualitative and quantitative techniques the evidence suggests that, if real options are explored and exploited appropriately, real options management can result in superior performance for multinational companies. The qualitative findings give an overview of the practical advantages and disadvantages of real options and the statistical results reveal that firms which have developed a high awareness of their real options are, as predicted by the theory, able to reduce their downside risk and increase profits through flexibility, organisational slack and multinationality. Although real options awareness does not systematically guarantee higher returns from operations, supplementary findings indicate that firms with evidence of significant investments in the acquisition of real options knowledge tend to outperform competitors which are unaware of their real options. There are three contributions of this research. First, it extends the real options and capacity planning literature to path-dependent contingent-claims analysis to underline the benefits of average type options in capacity allocation. Second, it is thought to be the first to explicitly examine the performance effects of real options on a sample of firms which have developed partial capabilities in real options analysis suggesting that real options diffusion can be key to value creation. Third, it builds a new decision-aiding framework to facilitate the use of real options in projects appraisal and strategic planning.

Individual differences in the sensory perception of fats

Excessive consumption of dietary fat is acknowledged to be a widespread problem linked to a range of medical conditions. Despite this, little is known about the specific sensory appeal held by fats and no previous published research exists concerning human perception of non-textural taste qualities in fats. This research aimed to address whether a taste component can be found in sensory perception of pure fats. It also examined whether individual differences existed in human taste responses to fat, using both aggregated data analysis methods and multidimensional scaling. Results indicated that individuals were able to detect both the primary taste qualities of sweet, salty, sour and bitter in pure processed oils and reliably ascribe their own individually-generated taste labels, suggested that a taste component may be present in human responses to fat. Individual variation appeared to exist, both in the perception of given taste qualities and in perceived intensity and preferences. A number of factors were examined in relation to such individual differences in taste perception, including age, gender, genetic sensitivity to 6-n-propylthiouracil, body mass, dietary preferences and intake, dieting behaviours and restraint. Results revealed that, to varying extents, gender, age, sensitivity to 6-n-propylthiouracil, dietary preferences, habitual dietary intake and restraint all appeared to be related to individual variation in taste responses to fat. However, in general, these differences appeared to exist in the form of differing preferences and levels of intensity with which taste qualities detected in fat were perceived, as opposed to the perception of specific taste qualities being associated with given traits or states. Equally, each of these factors appeared to exert only a limited influence upon variation in sensory responses and thus the potential for using taste responses to fats as a marker for issues such as over-consumption, obesity or eating disorder is at present limited.

Families 'at risk' and the family nurse partnership:the intrusion of risk into social exclusion policy

This article considers why the family nurse partnership (FNP) has been promoted as a means of tackling social exclusion in the UK. The FNP consists in a programme of visits by nurses to low-income first-time mothers, both while the mothers are pregnant and for the first two years following birth. The FNP is focused on both teaching parenthood and encouraging mothers back into education and/or into employment. Although the FNP marks a considerable discontinuity with previous approaches to family health, it is congruent with an emerging new approach to social exclusion. This new approach maintains that the most important task of social policy is to identify quickly the most 'at-risk' households, individuals and children so that interventions can be targeted more effectively at those 'at risk', either to themselves or to others. The article illustrates this new approach by analysing a succession of reports by the Social Exclusion Unit. It indicates that there is a considerable amount of ambiguity about the relationship between specific risk-factors and being 'at risk of social exclusion'. Nonetheless, this new approach helps to explain why British policy-makers may have chosen to promote the new FNP now. © 2009 Cambridge University Press.

The derivation and application of risk tolerability criteria

This research involves a study of the questions, "what is considered safe", how are safety levels defined or decided, and according to whom. Tolerable or acceptable risk questions raise various issues: about values and assumptions inherent in such levels; about decision-making frameworks at the highest level of policy making as well as on the individual level; and about the suitability and competency of decision-makers to decide and to communicate their decisions. The wide-ranging topics covering philosophical and practical concerns examined in the literature review reveal the multi-disciplined scope of this research. To support this theoretical study empirical research was undertaken at the European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC) of the European Space Agency (ESA). ESTEC is a large, multi-nationality, high technology organisation which presented an ideal case study for exploring how decisions are made with respect to safety from a personal as well as organisational aspect. A qualitative methodology was employed to gather, analyse and report the findings of this research. Significant findings reveal how experts perceive risks and the prevalence of informal decision-making processes partly due to the inadequacy of formal methods for deciding risk tolerability. In the field of occupational health and safety, this research has highlighted the importance and need for criteria to decide whether a risk is great enough to warrant attention in setting standards and priorities for risk control and resources. From a wider perspective and with the recognition that risk is an inherent part of life, the establishment of tolerability risk levels can be viewed as cornerstones indicating our progress, expectations and values, of life and work, in an increasingly litigious, knowledgeable and global society.

Oscillatory dynamics in the perception of pain investigated using magnetoencephalography

This thesis investigates changes in the oscillatory dynamics in key areas of the pain matrix during different modalities of pain. Gamma oscillations were seen in the primary somatosensory cortex in response to somatic electrical stimulation at painful and non-painful intensities. The strength of the gamma oscillations was found to relate to the intensity of the stimulus. Gamma oscillations were not seen during distal oesophageal electrical stimulation or the cold pressor test. Gamma oscillations were not seen in all participants during somatic electrical stimulation, however clear evoked responses from SI were seen in everyone. During a train of electrical pulses to the median nerve and the digit, a decrease in the frequency of the gamma oscillations was seen across the duration of the train. During a train of electrical stimuli to the median nerve and the digit, gamma oscillations were seen at ~20-100ms following stimulus onset and at frequencies between 30-100Hz. This gamma response was found to have a strong evoked component. Following a single electrical pulse to the digit, gamma oscillations were seen at 100-250ms and between 60-95Hz and were not temporally coincident with the main components of the evoked response. These results suggest that gamma oscillations may have an important role in encoding different aspects of sensory stimuli within their characteristics such as strength and frequency. These findings help to elucidate how somatic stimuli are processed within the cortex which in turn may be used to understand abnormal cases of somatosensory processing.

The knowledge-based perspective of risk management in healthcare organisations

The aim of this research is to investigate how risk management in a healthcare organisation can be supported by knowledge management. The subject of research is the development and management of existing logs called "risk registers", through specific risk management processes employed in a N.H.S. (Foundation) Trust in England, in the U.K. Existing literature on organisational risk management stresses the importance of knowledge for the effective implementation of risk management programmes, claiming that knowledge used to perceive risk is biased by the beliefs of individuals and groups involved in risk management and therefore is considered incomplete. Further, literature on organisational knowledge management presents several definitions and categorisations of knowledge and approaches for knowledge manipulation in the organisational context as a whole. However, there is no specific approach regarding "how to deal" with knowledge in the course of organisational risk management. The research is based on a single case study, on a N.H.S. (Foundation) Trust, is influenced by principles of interpretivism and the frame of mind of Soft Systems Methodology (S.S.M.) to investigate the management of risk registers, from the viewpoint of people involved in the situation. Data revealed that knowledge about risks and about the existing risk management policy and procedures is situated in several locations in the Trust and is neither consolidated nor present where and when required. This study proposes a framework that identifies required knowledge for each of the risk management processes and outlines methods for conversion of this knowledge, based on the SECI knowledge conversion model, and activities to facilitate knowledge conversion so that knowledge is effectively used for the development of risk registers and the monitoring of risks throughout the whole Trust under study. This study has theoretical impact in the management science literature as it addresses the issue of incomplete knowledge raised in the risk management literature using concepts of the knowledge management literature, such as the knowledge conversion model. In essence, the combination of required risk and risk management related knowledge with the required type of communication for risk management creates the proposed methods for the support of each risk management process for the risk registers. Further, the indication of the importance of knowledge in risk management and the presentation of a framework that consolidates knowledge required for the risk management processes and proposes way(s) for the communication of this knowledge within a healthcare organisation have practical impact in the management of healthcare organisations.