Density forecasts of crude-oil prices using option-implied and ARCH-type models

The predictive accuracy of competing crude-oil price forecast densities is investigated for the 1994–2006 period. Moving beyond standard ARCH type models that rely exclusively on past returns, we examine the benefits of utilizing the forward-looking information that is embedded in the prices of derivative contracts. Risk-neutral densities, obtained from panels of crude-oil option prices, are adjusted to reflect real-world risks using either a parametric or a non-parametric calibration approach. The relative performance of the models is evaluated for the entire support of the density, as well as for regions and intervals that are of special interest for the economic agent. We find that non-parametric adjustments of risk-neutral density forecasts perform significantly better than their parametric counterparts. Goodness-of-fit tests and out-of-sample likelihood comparisons favor forecast densities obtained by option prices and non-parametric calibration methods over those constructed using historical returns and simulated ARCH processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:727–754, 2011

The mechanical behaviour of cylindrical GRP panels

Glass reinforced plastic (GRP) is now an established material for the fabrication of sonar windows. Its good mechanical strength, light weight, resistance to corrosion and acoustic transparency, are all properties which fit it for this application. This thesis describes a study, undertaken at the Royal Naval Engineering College, Plymouth, into the mechanical behaviour of a circular cylindrical sonar panel. This particular type of panel would be used to cover a flank array sonar in a ship or submarine. The case considered is that of a panel with all of its edges mechanically clamped and subject to pressure loading on its convex surface. A comprehensive program of testing, to determine the orthotropic elastic properties of the laminated composite panel material is described, together with a series of pressure tests on 1:5 scale sonar panels. These pressure tests were carried out in a purpose designed test rig, using air pressure to provide simulated hydrostatic and hydrodynamic loading. Details of all instrumentation used in the experimental work are given in the thesis. The experimental results from the panel testing are compared with predictions of panel behaviour obtained from both the Galerkin solution of Flugge's cylindrical shell equations (orthotropic case), and finite element modelling of the panels using PAFEC. A variety of appropriate panel boundary conditions are considered in each case. A parametric study, intended to be of use as a preliminary design tool, and based on the above Galerkin solution, is also presented. This parametric study considers cases of boundary conditions, material properties, and panel geometry, outside of those investigated in the experimental work Final conclusions are drawn and recommendations made regarding possible improvements to the procedures for design, manufacture and fixing of sonar panels in the Royal Navy.

The influence of composition on the optical properties of electrodeposited gold

In industry the colour of a gold alloy electrodeposit is checked by visual comparison with standard panels. The aims of the present work have been to access the application of spectrophotmetric techniques to the measurement of the colour of gold alloy electrodeposits and to examine the factors that influence the colour of thin deposits. The minimum thickness of deposit required to produce its final colour and completely hide the underlying substrate was measured and found to depend on the nature of the substrate, the plating solution and the operating conditions. Bright and matt electrodeposits were studied. The influence of alloying gold by adding copper, silver and indium to the plating solution were investigated. CIE chromaticity coordinates were calculated from spectrophotometric data using a computer programme written for the purpose. The addition of silver to a simple gold bath caused the colour of the deposit to change from yellow through green to near white in a smooth progression as the amount of silver in solid solution steadily increased. The colour of deposits formed when additions of copper were made was complicated by the formation of intermediate phases. À colour in the blue region of the spectrum was obtained in a few experiments investigating the influence of indium additions to the gold bath.

The appraisal and management of multi-storey dwelling blocks using large concrete panel systems

This exploratory study is concerned with the integrated appraisal of multi-storey dwelling blocks which incorporate large concrete panel systems (LPS). The first step was to look at U.K. multi-storey dwelling stock in general, and under the management of Birmingham City Council in particular. The information has been taken from the databases of three departments in the City of Birmingham, and rearranged in a new database using a suite of PC software called `PROXIMA' for clarity and analysis. One hundred of their stock were built large concrete panel system. Thirteen LPS blocks were chosen for the purpose of this study as case-studies depending mainly on the height and age factors of the block. A new integrated appraisal technique has been created for the LPS dwelling blocks, which takes into account the most physical and social factors affecting the condition and acceptability of these blocks. This appraisal technique is built up in a hierarchical form moving from the general approach to particular elements (a tree model). It comprises two main approaches; physical and social. In the physical approach, the building is viewed as a series of manageable elements and sub-elements to cover every single physical or environmental factor of the block, in which the condition of the block is analysed. A quality score system has been developed which depends mainly on the qualitative and quantitative conditions of each category in the appraisal tree model, and leads to physical ranking order of the study blocks. In the social appraisal approach, the residents' satisfaction and attitude toward their multi-storey dwelling block was analysed in relation to: a. biographical and housing related characteristics; and b. social, physical and environmental factors associated with this sort of dwelling, block and estate in general.The random sample consisted of 268 residents living in the 13 case study blocks. Data collected was analysed using frequency counts, percentages, means, standard deviations, Kendall's tue, r-correlation coefficients, t-test, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and multiple regression analysis. The analysis showed a marginally positive satisfaction and attitude towards living in the block. The five most significant factors associated with the residents' satisfaction and attitude in descending order were: the estate, in general; the service categories in the block, including heating system and lift services; vandalism; the neighbours; and the security system of the block. An important attribute of this method, is that it is relatively inexpensive to implement, especially when compared to alternatives adopted by some local authorities and the BRE. It is designed to save time, money and effort, to aid decision making, and to provide ranked priority to the multi-storey dwelling stock, in addition to many other advantages. A series of solution options to the problems of the block was sought for selection and testing before implementation. The traditional solutions have usually resulted in either demolition or costly physical maintenance and social improvement of the blocks. However, a new solution has now emerged, which is particularly suited to structurally sound units. The solution of `re-cycling' might incorporate the reuse of an entire block or part of it, by removing panels, slabs and so forth from the upper floors in order to reconstruct them as low-rise accommodations.

Fundamental mechanisms affecting service performance of electroplated plastics

Ten grades of ABS and four grades of polypropylene have been plated with various copper + nickel + chromium coatings and subjected to a variety of tests. In corrosion studies the pre-electroplating sequence and plastics type have been shown to influence performance. One ABS pre-electroplating sequence was consistently associated with better corrosion performance; two factors were responsible for this, namely the more severe nature of the etch and the relatively more noble electroless nickel. Statistical analysis has indicated that order of severity of the corrosion tests was static-mobile-CASS, the latter being the least severe. In mechanical tests two properties of ABS and polypropJylene, ductility and impact strength, have been shown to be adversely affected when electrodeposited layers were applied. The cause of this is due to a complex of factors, the most important of which is the notch sensitivity of the plastics. Peel adhesion has been studied on flat panels and also on ones which had a ridge and a valley moulded into one face. High adhesion peaks occurred on the flat face at regions associated with the ridge and valley. The local moulding conditions induced by the features were responsible for this phenonemon. In the main programme the thermal cycling test was shown to be more likely than the peel adhesion test to give an indication of the service performance of electroplated plastics.

Application of wear resistant coatings by the brush plating technique

The development of cobalt molybdenum and cobalt tungsten brush plating electrolytes is described. Their optimum compositions and operating conditions for commercial applications have been determined. The effects of composition, pH, applied voltage, stylus speed and pressure upon deposit composition and efficiency have been investigated. Transmission and Scanning Electron Microscopy have been employed to study the cobalt alloy deposits produced. Evaluation of the wear resistant properties of the cobalt alloys developed in this work was carried out in the laboratory using a pin and disc technique and a simulated hot forging test, and by industrial trials involving the "on site" plating of hot forging dies and cold pressing tools. It was concluded that the electrolytes developed in tl1is work enabled cobalt alloys containing 6% Mo or 8% W to be deposited at 17-20V. Brush plated cobalt deposits possessed a mixed CPU and FCC crystallographic structure at room temperature. The application of 13µm of either of the cobalt alloys resulted in improved wear performance in both pin and disc and simulated hot forging tests. The results of the industrial trials indicated that by the use of these alloys, the life of hot forging dies may be increased by 20-100%. A commercial forging organisation is using electrolytes developed in this work to coat dies prior to forging nimonic alloys. Reductions in forging temperature and improved forging qualities have been reported. Cold pressing tools coated with the alloys showed a reduced tendency to "pick-up" and scoring of the pressed panels. Reports of a reduced need for lubrication of panels before pressing have also been received.

Production of renewable phenolic resins by thermochemical conversion of biomass: a review

This review covers the production and utilisation of liquids from the thermal processing of biomass and related materials to substitute for synthetic phenol and formaldehyde in phenol formaldehyde resins. These resins are primarily employed in the manufacture of wood panels such as plywood, MDF, particle-board and OSB. The most important thermal conversion methods for this purpose are fast pyrolysis and vacuum pyrolysis, pressure liquefaction and phenolysis. Many feedstocks have been tested for their suitability as sources of phenolics including hard and softwoods, bark and residual lignins. Resins have been prepared utilising either the whole liquid product, or a phenolics enriched fraction obtained after fractional condensation or further processing, such as solvent extraction. None of the phenolics production and fractionation techniques covered in this review are believed to allow substitution of 100% of the phenol content of the resin without impacting its effectiveness compared to commercial formulations based on petroleum derived phenol. This survey shows that considerable progress has been made towards reaching the goal of a price competitive renewable resin, but that further research is required to meet the twin challenges of low renewable resin cost and satisfactory quality requirements. Particular areas of concern are wood panel press times, variability of renewable resin properties, odour, lack of reactive sites compared to phenol and potential for increased emissions of volatile organic compounds.

Review of progress in implementing the recommendations of Sir Gareth Roberts regarding employability and career development of PhD students and research staff:A report for Research Councils UK by an independent review panel October 2010

The need for improvement in the development of research careers and researchers’ training in transferable skills was highlighted in two particular recommendations (numbers 4.2 and 5.3) in the 2002 report ‘SET for success: the report of Sir Gareth Roberts’ Review - the supply of people with science, technology, engineering and mathematics skills’ (Roberts, 2002). As a consequence of that review, Research Councils UK (RCUK)1 have invested about £120 million, usually referred to as ’Roberts’ Money’, in research organisations to address this concern in all research disciplines. The last ‘Roberts’ Money’ payment will be for the period up to March 2011; it was therefore proposed to assess the progress made with taking forward these specific recommendations. An independent panel was formed by RCUK to undertake this review in 2010. The terms of reference for the panel are in Annex A. In summary, the panel was asked to review progress made and to advise RCUK and the higher education (HE) sector about future requirements for the development and training of researchers. In the course of their review, the panel considered a wide range of existing reports, interviewed key stakeholders in the HE sector and elsewhere, as well as drawing on their own knowledge and expertise. This report presents the findings of the panel’s review.