Combining the wavelet transform and forecasting models to predict gas forward prices

This paper presents a forecasting technique for forward energy prices, one day ahead. This technique combines a wavelet transform and forecasting models such as multi- layer perceptron, linear regression or GARCH. These techniques are applied to real data from the UK gas markets to evaluate their performance. The results show that the forecasting accuracy is improved significantly by using the wavelet transform. The methodology can be also applied to forecasting market clearing prices and electricity/gas loads.

Learning in manufacturing organizations:what factors predict effectiveness?

This paper argues that it is possible to identify factors which pre-dispose organizations to adopt effective learning strategies and processes. It is hypothesized that effective OL is associated with: profitability, environmental uncertainty, structure, approach to HRM and quality orientation. The study focuses on forty-four manufacturing organizations, and draws on longitudinal data gathered through interviews. The findings suggest that two of these variables - approach to HRM and quality orientation - are particularly strongly correlated with measures of OL. It is concluded that effective learning mechanisms, with the potential to improve the quality of OL processes, are more likely to be established in businesses where HRM and quality initiatives are well established.

Third-derivative filters predict edge locations in spatial vision

Edge detection is crucial in visual processing. Previous computational and psychophysical models have often used peaks in the gradient or zero-crossings in the 2nd derivative to signal edges. We tested these approaches using a stimulus that has no such features. Its luminance profile was a triangle wave, blurred by a rectangular function. Subjects marked the position and polarity of perceived edges. For all blur widths tested, observers marked edges at or near 3rd derivative maxima, even though these were not 1st derivative maxima or 2nd derivative zero-crossings, at any scale. These results are predicted by a new nonlinear model based on 3rd derivative filtering. As a critical test, we added a ramp of variable slope to the blurred triangle-wave luminance profile. The ramp has no effect on the (linear) 2nd or higher derivatives, but the nonlinear model predicts a shift from seeing two edges to seeing one edge as the ramp gradient increases. Results of two experiments confirmed such a shift, thus supporting the new model. [Supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council].

Development of techniques to predict production line efficiency

This industrial based research project was undertaken for British Leyland and arose as a result of poor system efficiency on the Maxi and Marina vehicle body build lines. The major factors in the deterioration of system efficiency were identified as: a) The introduction of a 'Gateline' system of vehicle body build. b) The degeneration of a newly introduced measured daywork payment scheme. By relating the conclusions of past work on payment systems to the situation at Cowley, it was concluded that a combination of poor industrial relations and a lack of managerial control had caused the measured daywork scheme to degenerate into a straightforward payment for time at work. This ellminated the monetary incentive to achieve schedule with the consequence that both inefficiency and operating costs increased. To analyse further the cause of inefficiency, a study of Marina gateline stoppage logs was carried out. This revealed that poor system efficiency on the gateline was caused more by the nature of its design than poor reliability on individual items of' plant. The consideration given to system efficiency at the design stage was found to be negligible, the main obstacles being: a) A lack of understanding pertaining to the influence of certain design factors on the efficiency of a production line. b) The absence of data and techniques to predict system efficiency at the design stage. To remedy this situation, a computer simulation study of' the design factors was carried out from which relationships with system efficiency were established and empirical efficiency equations developed. Sets of tables were compiled from the equations and efficiency data relevant to vehicle body building established from the gateline stoppage logs. Computer simulation, the equations and the tables,when used in conjunction. with good efficiency data, are shown to be accurate methods of predicting production line system.efficiency.

How well do the theory of reasoned action and theory of planned behaviour predict intentions and attendance at screening programmes? A meta-analysis

Meta-analysis was used to quantify how well the Theories of Reasoned Action and Planned Behaviour have predicted intentions to attend screening programmes and actual attendance behaviour. Systematic literature searches identified 33 studies that were included in the review. Across the studies as a whole, attitudes had a large-sized relationship with intention, while subjective norms and perceived behavioural control (PBC) possessed medium-sized relationships with intention. Intention had a medium-sized relationship with attendance, whereas the PBC-attendance relationship was small sized. Due to heterogeneity in results between studies, moderator analyses were conducted. The moderator variables were (a) type of screening test, (b) location of recruitment, (c) screening cost and (d) invitation to screen. All moderators affected theory of planned behaviour relationships. Suggestions for future research emerging from these results include targeting attitudes to promote intention to screen, a greater use of implementation intentions in screening information and examining the credibility of different screening providers.

Chronic preoperative pain and psychological robustness predict acute postoperative pain outcomes after surgery for breast cancer

Background - Few epidemiological studies have prospectively investigated preoperative and surgical risk factors for acute postoperative pain after surgery for breast cancer. We investigated demographic, psychological, pain-related and surgical risk factors in women undergoing resectional surgery for breast cancer. Methods - Primary outcomes were pain severity, at rest (PAR) and movement-evoked pain (MEP), in the first postoperative week. Results - In 338 women undergoing surgery, those with chronic preoperative pain were three times more likely to report moderate to severe MEP after breast cancer surgery (OR 3.18, 95% CI 1.45–6.99). Increased psychological ‘robustness’, a composite variable representing positive affect and dispositional optimism, was associated with lower intensity acute postoperative PAR (OR 0.63, 95% CI 0.48–0.82) and MEP (OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.54–0.93). Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) and intraoperative nerve division were associated with reduced postoperative pain. No relationship was found between preoperative neuropathic pain and acute pain outcomes; altered sensations and numbness postoperatively were more common after axillary sample or clearance compared with SLNB. Conclusion - Chronic preoperative pain, axillary surgery and psychological robustness significantly predicted acute pain outcomes after surgery for breast cancer. Preoperative identification and targeted intervention of subgroups at risk could enhance the recovery trajectory in cancer survivors.

Do left and right asymmetries of hemispheric preference interact with attention to predict local and global performance in applied tasks?

Many cognitive neuroscience studies show that the ability to attend to and identify global or local information is lateralised between the two hemispheres in the human brain; the left hemisphere is biased towards the local level, whereas the right hemisphere is biased towards the global level. Results of two studies show attention-focused people with a right ear preference (biased towards the left hemisphere) are better at local tasks, whereas people with a left ear preference (biased towards the right hemisphere) are better at more global tasks. In a third study we determined if right hemisphere-biased followers who attend to global stimuli are likely to have a stronger relationship between attention and globally based supervisor ratings of performance. Results provide evidence in support of this hypothesis. Our research supports our model and suggests that the interaction between attention and lateral preference is an important and novel predictor of work-related outcomes. © 2012 Copyright Psychology Press Ltd.

Can illness perceptions and coping predict psychological distress amongst allergy sufferers?

Objective. The aim of the present study was to measure the extent to which illness perceptions and coping strategies are associated with the levels of psychological distress amongst allergy sufferers. Design and method. One hundred and fifty-six allergy sufferers (all members of Allergy U.K.) completed a postal survey consisting of the Revised Illness Perception Questionnaire (IPQ-R) and the COPE. Psychological distress was measured using the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-28) and the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS). Results. Multiple regression analyses indicated that illness perceptions explained between 6 and 26% of variance on measures of psychological distress; coping strategies explained between 12 and 25%. A strong illness identity and emotional representations of the allergy were associated with higher levels of psychological distress; as were less adaptive coping strategies such as focusing on and venting of emotions. Strong personal control beliefs were associated with the lower levels of distress, as were adaptive coping strategies such as positive reinterpretation and growth. Coping partially mediated the link between the illness perceptions and the outcome; however, illness identity, emotional representations and personal control retained an independent significant association with psychological distress. Conclusion. The findings support a role for illness perceptions and coping in explaining levels of psychological distress amongst allergy sufferers. This has implications for targeted health interventions aimed at reducing the strength of illness identity and emotional representations and increasing a sense of control and the use of more adaptive coping strategies.

Gender and autistic personality traits predict perspective-taking ability in typical adults

Adopting another’s visual perspective is exceedingly common and may underlie successful social interaction and empathizing with others. The individual differences responsible for success in perspective-taking, however, remain relatively undiscovered. We assessed whether gender and autistic personality traits in normal college student adults predict the ability to adopt another’s visual perspective. In a task differentially recruiting VPT-1 which involves following another’s line of sight, and VPT-2 which involves determining how another may perceive an object differently given their unique perspective (VPT-2), we found effects of both gender and autistic personality traits. Specifically, we demonstrate slowed VPT-2 but not VPT-1 performance in males and females with relatively high ASD-characteristic personality traits; this effect, however was markedly stronger in males than females. Results contribute to knowledge regarding ASD-related personality traits in the general population and the individual differences modulating perspective-taking abilities.

Characteristics of motor resonance predict the pattern of flash-lag effects for biological motion

Background - When a moving stimulus and a briefly flashed static stimulus are physically aligned in space the static stimulus is perceived as lagging behind the moving stimulus. This vastly replicated phenomenon is known as the Flash-Lag Effect (FLE). For the first time we employed biological motion as the moving stimulus, which is important for two reasons. Firstly, biological motion is processed by visual as well as somatosensory brain areas, which makes it a prime candidate for elucidating the interplay between the two systems with respect to the FLE. Secondly, discussions about the mechanisms of the FLE tend to recur to evolutionary arguments, while most studies employ highly artificial stimuli with constant velocities. Methodology/Principal Finding - Since biological motion is ecologically valid it follows complex patterns with changing velocity. We therefore compared biological to symbolic motion with the same acceleration profile. Our results with 16 observers revealed a qualitatively different pattern for biological compared to symbolic motion and this pattern was predicted by the characteristics of motor resonance: The amount of anticipatory processing of perceived actions based on the induced perspective and agency modulated the FLE. Conclusions/Significance - Our study provides first evidence for an FLE with non-linear motion in general and with biological motion in particular. Our results suggest that predictive coding within the sensorimotor system alone cannot explain the FLE. Our findings are compatible with visual prediction (Nijhawan, 2008) which assumes that extrapolated motion representations within the visual system generate the FLE. These representations are modulated by sudden visual input (e.g. offset signals) or by input from other systems (e.g. sensorimotor) that can boost or attenuate overshooting representations in accordance with biased neural competition (Desimone & Duncan, 1995).

Plasma irisin levels predict telomere length in healthy adults

The ageing process is strongly influenced by nutrient balance, such that modest calorie restriction (CR) extends lifespan in mammals. Irisin, a newly described hormone released from skeletal muscles after exercise, may induce CR-like effects by increasing adipose tissue energy expenditure. Using telomere length as a marker of ageing, this study investigates associations between body composition, plasma irisin levels and peripheral blood mononuclear cell telomere length in healthy, non-obese individuals. Segmental body composition (by bioimpedance), telomere length and plasma irisin levels were assessed in 81 healthy individuals (age 43∈±∈15.8 years, BMI 24.3∈±∈2.9 kg/m2). Data showed significant correlations between log-transformed relative telomere length and the following: age (p∈<∈0.001), height (p∈=∈0.045), total body fat percentage (p∈=∈0.031), abdominal fat percentage (p∈=∈0.038) , visceral fat level (p∈<∈0.001), plasma leptin (p∈=∈0.029) and plasma irisin (p∈=∈0.011), respectively. Multiple regression analysis using backward elimination revealed that relative telomere length can be predicted by age (b∈=∈-0.00735, p∈=∈0.001) and plasma irisin levels (b∈=∈0.04527, p∈=∈0.021). These data support the view that irisin may have a role in the modulation of both energy balance and the ageing process. © 2014 The Author(s).

Combining algorithms to predict bacterial protein sub-cellular location:parallel versus concurrent implementations

We describe a novel and potentially important tool for candidate subunit vaccine selection through in silico reverse-vaccinology. A set of Bayesian networks able to make individual predictions for specific subcellular locations is implemented in three pipelines with different architectures: a parallel implementation with a confidence level-based decision engine and two serial implementations with a hierarchical decision structure, one initially rooted by prediction between membrane types and another rooted by soluble versus membrane prediction. The parallel pipeline outperformed the serial pipeline, but took twice as long to execute. The soluble-rooted serial pipeline outperformed the membrane-rooted predictor. Assessment using genomic test sets was more equivocal, as many more predictions are made by the parallel pipeline, yet the serial pipeline identifies 22 more of the 74 proteins of known location.

Illness perceptions predict reassurance following a negative exercise stress testing result

Many patients are not reassured after receiving normal results following cardiac investigations. While previous studies have shown anxiety to be a contributing factor, little research has investigated the influence of patients’ illness perceptions on reassurance. In this study we investigated whether illness perceptions predicted patients’ reassurance following normal exercise stress test results. Sixty-two chest pain patients without prior diagnosed cardiac pathology completed questionnaires assessing anxiety and illness perceptions prior to exercise stress testing. Patients completed a reassurance questionnaire immediately following their appointment and again one month later. Illness perceptions (consequences, timeline, identity, illness concern, and emotional effect) but not anxiety, significantly predicted reassurance immediately following testing. We found both state anxiety and illness perceptions to predict reassurance one month later. After controlling for anxiety, longer timeline and lower treatment control beliefs predicted lower reassurance. The results suggest that an intervention targeting patients who have high anxiety and negative illness perceptions prior to testing may improve reassurance and decrease disability and the subsequent use of medical care.

Can surface energy measurements predict the impact of catalyst hydrophobicity upon fatty acid esterification over sulfonic acid functionalised periodic mesoporous organosilicas?

Sulfonic acid functionalised periodic mesoporous organosilicas (PrSO3 H-PMOs) with tunable hydrophobicity were synthesised via a surfactant-templating route, and characterised by porosimetry, TEM, XRD, XPS, inverse gas chromatography (IGC) and ammonia pulse chemisorption. IGC reveals that incorporation of ethyl or benzyl moieties into a mesoporous SBA-15 silica framework significantly increases the non-specific dispersive surface energy of adsorption for alkane adsorption, while decreasing the free energy of adsorption of methanol, reflecting increased surface hydrophobicity. The non-specific dispersive surface energy of adsorption of PMO-SO3H materials is strongly correlated with their activity towards palmitic acid esterification with methanol, demonstrating the power of IGC as an analytical tool for identifying promising solid acid catalysts for the esterification of free fatty acids. A new parameter [-ΔGCNP-P], defined as the per carbon difference in Gibbs free energy of adsorption between alkane and polar probe molecules, provides a simple predictor of surface hydrophobicity and corresponding catalyst activity in fatty acid esterification. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.