Optimising the diagnostic performance of the Geriatric Depression Scale

The aim of this work is to empirically generate a shortened version of the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), with the intention of maximising the diagnostic performance in the detection of depression compared with previously GDS validated versions, while optimizing the size of the instrument. A total of 233 individuals (128 from a Day Hospital, 105 randomly selected from the community) aged 60 or over completed the GDS and other measures. The 30 GDS items were entered in the Day Hospital sample as independent variables in a stepwise logistic regression analysis predicting diagnosis of Major Depression. A final solution of 10 items was retained, which correctly classified 97.4% of cases. The diagnostic performance of these 10 GDS items was analysed in the random sample with a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Sensitivity (100%), specificity (97.2%), positive (81.8%) and negative (100%) predictive power, and the area under the curve (0.994) were comparable with values for GDS-30 and higher compared with GDS-15, GDS-10 and GDS-5. In addition, the new scale proposed had excellent fit when testing its unidimensionality with CFA for categorical outcomes (e.g., CFI=0.99). The 10-item version of the GDS proposed here, the GDS-R, seems to retain the diagnostic performance for detecting depression in older adults of the GDS-30 items, while increasing the sensitivity and predictive values relative to other shortened versions.

Examining the strategy development process through the lens of complex adaptive systems theory

The development of strategy remains a debate for academics and a concern for practitioners. Published research has focused on producing models for strategy development and on studying how strategy is developed in organisations. The Operational Research literature has highlighted the importance of considering complexity within strategic decision making; but little has been done to link strategy development with complexity theories, despite organisations and organisational environments becoming increasingly more complex. We review the dominant streams of strategy development and complexity theories. Our theoretical investigation results in the first conceptual framework which links an established Strategic Operational Research model, the Strategy Development Process model, with complexity via Complex Adaptive Systems theory. We present preliminary findings from the use of this conceptual framework applied to a longitudinal, in-depth case study, to demonstrate the advantages of using this integrated conceptual model. Our research shows that the conceptual model proposed provides rich data and allows for a more holistic examination of the strategy development process. © 2012 Operational Research Society Ltd. All rights reserved.

Deep hole drilling with twist drills: aspects of the CNC process and its real time monitoring and adaptive control

Deep hole drilling is one of the most complicated metal cutting processes and one of the most difficult to perform on CNC machine-tools or machining centres under conditions of limited manpower or unmanned operation. This research work investigates aspects of the deep hole drilling process with small diameter twist drills and presents a prototype system for real time process monitoring and adaptive control; two main research objectives are fulfilled in particular : First objective is the experimental investigation of the mechanics of the deep hole drilling process, using twist drills without internal coolant supply, in the range of diarneters Ø 2.4 to Ø4.5 mm and working length up to 40 diameters. The definition of the problems associated with the low strength of these tools and the study of mechanisms of catastrophic failure which manifest themselves well before and along with the classic mechanism of tool wear. The relationships between drilling thrust and torque with the depth of penetration and the various machining conditions are also investigated and the experimental evidence suggests that the process is inherently unstable at depths beyond a few diameters. Second objective is the design and implementation of a system for intelligent CNC deep hole drilling, the main task of which is to ensure integrity of the process and the safety of the tool and the workpiece. This task is achieved by means of interfacing the CNC system of the machine tool to an external computer which performs the following functions: On-line monitoring of the drilling thrust and torque, adaptive control of feed rate, spindle speed and tool penetration (Z-axis), indirect monitoring of tool wear by pattern recognition of variations of the drilling thrust with cumulative cutting time and drilled depth, operation as a data base for tools and workpieces and finally issuing of alarms and diagnostic messages.

Improving envelopment in Data Envelopment Analysis under variable returns to scale

In a Data Envelopment Analysis model, some of the weights used to compute the efficiency of a unit can have zero or negligible value despite of the importance of the corresponding input or output. This paper offers an approach to preventing inputs and outputs from being ignored in the DEA assessment under the multiple input and output VRS environment, building on an approach introduced in Allen and Thanassoulis (2004) for single input multiple output CRS cases. The proposed method is based on the idea of introducing unobserved DMUs created by adjusting input and output levels of certain observed relatively efficient DMUs, in a manner which reflects a combination of technical information and the decision maker's value judgements. In contrast to many alternative techniques used to constrain weights and/or improve envelopment in DEA, this approach allows one to impose local information on production trade-offs, which are in line with the general VRS technology. The suggested procedure is illustrated using real data. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The micro-politics of operational adjustment:veto players and the consolidation of demand in the NHS

Recent reports about procurement within the NHS have been highly critical. One problem identified in the reports is the fragmentation of NHS demand across an unnecessarily large number of suppliers. This fragmentation is said to increase transaction costs, reduce opportunities for scale economies and reduce NHS leverage over suppliers. It has been suggested, therefore, that an important way of improving procurement in the NHS is the better consolidation of demand with a lower number of preferred suppliers. However, such a policy, because it will create ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ within NHS organisations, has political as well as technical and practical ramifications. In this article, the authors present a model, the Veto Players Model, in order to assist managers to address these political ramifications. In the article, the authors not only demonstrate the utility of this model with regard to demand consolidation policies, but also argue that the model provides useful lessons for change management initiatives more generally.

An operational research-based integrated approach for mass evacuation planning of a city

Large-scale disasters are constantly occurring around the world, and in many cases evacuation of regions of city is needed. ‘Operational Research/Management Science’ (OR/MS) has been widely used in emergency planning for over five decades. Warning dissemination, evacuee transportation and shelter management are three ‘Evacuation Support Functions’ (ESF) generic to many hazards. This thesis has adopted a case study approach to illustrate the importance of integrated approach of evacuation planning and particularly the role of OR/MS models. In the warning dissemination phase, uncertainty in the household’s behaviour as ‘warning informants’ has been investigated along with uncertainties in the warning system. An agentbased model (ABM) was developed for ESF-1 with households as agents and ‘warning informants’ behaviour as the agent behaviour. The model was used to study warning dissemination effectiveness under various conditions of the official channel. In the transportation phase, uncertainties in the household’s behaviour such as departure time (a function of ESF-1), means of transport and destination have been. Households could evacuate as pedestrians, using car or evacuation buses. An ABM was developed to study the evacuation performance (measured in evacuation travel time). In this thesis, a holistic approach for planning the public evacuation shelters called ‘Shelter Information Management System’ (SIMS) has been developed. A generic allocation framework of was developed to available shelter capacity to the shelter demand by considering the evacuation travel time. This was formulated using integer programming. In the sheltering phase, the uncertainty in household shelter choices (either nearest/allocated/convenient) has been studied for its impact on allocation policies using sensitivity analyses. Using analyses from the models and detailed examination of household states from ‘warning to safety’, it was found that the three ESFs though sequential in time, however have lot of interdependencies from the perspective of evacuation planning. This thesis has illustrated an OR/MS based integrated approach including and beyond single ESF preparedness. The developed approach will help in understanding the inter-linkages of the three evacuation phases and preparing a multi-agency-based evacuation planning evacuation

Adaptive modulation scaling scheme for wireless sensor networks

Limited energy is a big challenge for large scale wireless sensor networks (WSN). Previous research works show that modulation scaling is an efficient technique to reduce energy consumption. However, the impacts of using modulation scaling on packet delivery latency and loss are not considered, which may have adverse effects on the application qualities. In this paper, we study this problem and propose control schemes to minimize energy consumption while ensuring application qualities. We first analyze the relationships of modulation scaling and energy consumption, end-to-end delivery latency and packet loss ratio. With the analytical model, we develop a centralized control scheme to adaptively adjust the modulation levels, in order to minimize energy consumption and ensure the application qualities. To improve the scalability of the centralized control scheme, we also propose a distributed control scheme. In this scheme, the sink will send the differences between the required and measured application qualities to the sensors. The sensors will update their modulation levels with the local information and feedback from the sink. Experimental results show the effectiveness of energy saving and QoS guarantee of the control schemes. The control schemes can adapt efficiently to the time-varying requirements on application qualities. Copyright © 2005 The Institute of Electronics, Information and Communication Engineers.

Tsunami disaster recovery experience:a case study on micro, small and medium scale enterprises in Southern Sri Lanka

Post-disaster recovery of Micro, Small and Medium-Scale Enterprises (SMEs) remains an issue of interest for policy and practice given the wide scale occurrences of natural disasters around the globe and their significant impacts on local economies and SMEs. Asian Tsunami of December 2004 affected many SMEs in southern Sri Lanka. The study was developed to identify the main issues encountered by the Tsunami affected SMEs in Southern Sri Lanka in the process of their post-tsunami recovery. The study: a) identifies tsunami damage and loss in micro and SMEs in the Galle district; b) ascertains the type of benefits received from various parties by the affected micro and SMEs; c) evaluates the problems and difficulties faced by the beneficiary organizations in the benefit distribution process; and d) recommends strategies and policies for the tsunami-affected micro and SMEs for them to become self-sustaining within a reasonable time frame. Fifty randomly selected tsunami-affected micro and SMEs were surveyed for this study. Interviews were conducted in person with the business owners in order to identify the damages, recovery, rehabilitation, re-establishment and difficulties faced in the benefit distribution process. The analysis identifies that the benefits were given the wrong priorities and that they were not sufficient for the recovery process. In addition, the many governance-related problems that arose while distributing benefits are discussed. Overall, the business recovery rate was approximately 65%, and approximately 88% of business organizations were sole proprietorships. Therefore, the policies of the tsunami relief agencies should adequately address the needs of sole proprietorship business requirements. Consideration should also be given to strengthen the capacity and skills of the entrepreneurs by improving operational, technological, management and marketing skills and capabilities.

Protection schemes for meshed VSC-HVDC transmission systems for large-scale offshore wind farms

This chapter discusses network protection of high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission systems for large-scale offshore wind farms where the HVDC system utilizes voltage-source converters. The multi-terminal HVDC network topology and protection allocation and configuration are discussed with DC circuit breaker and protection relay configurations studied for different fault conditions. A detailed protection scheme is designed with a solution that does not require relay communication. Advanced understanding of protection system design and operation is necessary for reliable and safe operation of the meshed HVDC system under fault conditions. Meshed-HVDC systems are important as they will be used to interconnect large-scale offshore wind generation projects. Offshore wind generation is growing rapidly and offers a means of securing energy supply and addressing emissions targets whilst minimising community impacts. There are ambitious plans concerning such projects in Europe and in the Asia-Pacific region which will all require a reliable yet economic system to generate, collect, and transmit electrical power from renewable resources. Collective offshore wind farms are efficient and have potential as a significant low-carbon energy source. However, this requires a reliable collection and transmission system. Offshore wind power generation is a relatively new area and lacks systematic analysis of faults and associated operational experience to enhance further development. Appropriate fault protection schemes are required and this chapter highlights the process of developing and assessing such schemes. The chapter illustrates the basic meshed topology, identifies the need for distance evaluation, and appropriate cable models, then details the design and operation of the protection scheme with simulation results used to illustrate operation. © Springer Science+Business Media Singapore 2014.

Self-adaptive probabilistic roadmap generation for intelligent virtual agents

Agents inhabiting large scale environments are faced with the problem of generating maps by which they can navigate. One solution to this problem is to use probabilistic roadmaps which rely on selecting and connecting a set of points that describe the interconnectivity of free space. However, the time required to generate these maps can be prohibitive, and agents do not typically know the environment in advance. In this paper we show that the optimal combination of different point selection methods used to create the map is dependent on the environment, no point selection method dominates. This motivates a novel self-adaptive approach for an agent to combine several point selection methods. The success rate of our approach is comparable to the state of the art and the generation cost is substantially reduced. Self-adaptation therefore enables a more efficient use of the agent's resources. Results are presented for both a set of archetypal scenarios and large scale virtual environments based in Second Life, representing real locations in London.