The use of models and methods for strategic planning:towards an holistic view of strategy

Formulating manufacturing business strategy is often fragmented in as much as current tools address upstream and downstream vertical integration with product integration, or more recently, product and infrastructure integration. Rarely do tools address all of these dimensions in an holistic manner. The research described in this paper is that undertaken in the MAPSTRAT project: a scoping study with industrial partners, aiming to satisfy this business need. A comprehensive literature study is described which is contextualized using six case studies. The paper stresses the importance of ‘joined-up thinking’ and outlines plans for an appropriate tool that is under development.

Concepts and methods of quantitative assessment of risk to groundwater resources

This work presents a two-dimensional approach of risk assessment method based on the quantification of the probability of the occurrence of contaminant source terms, as well as the assessment of the resultant impacts. The risk is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation methods whereby synthetic contaminant source terms were generated to the same distribution as historically occurring pollution events or a priori potential probability distribution. The spatial and temporal distributions of the generated contaminant concentrations at pre-defined monitoring points within the aquifer were then simulated from repeated realisations using integrated mathematical models. The number of times when user defined ranges of concentration magnitudes were exceeded is quantified as risk. The utilities of the method were demonstrated using hypothetical scenarios, and the risk of pollution from a number of sources all occurring by chance together was evaluated. The results are presented in the form of charts and spatial maps. The generated risk maps show the risk of pollution at each observation borehole, as well as the trends within the study area. This capability to generate synthetic pollution events from numerous potential sources of pollution based on historical frequency of their occurrence proved to be a great asset to the method, and a large benefit over the contemporary methods.

Reducing suffering in animal models and procedures involving seizures, convulsions and epilepsy

This report is based on discussions and submissions from an expert working group consisting of veterinarians, animal care staff and scientists with expert knowledge relevant to the field and aims to facilitate the implementation of the Three Rs (replacement, reduction and refinement) in the use of animal models or procedures involving seizures, convulsions and epilepsy. Each of these conditions will be considered, the specific welfare issues discussed, and practical measures to reduce animal use and suffering suggested. The emphasis is on refinement since this has the greatest potential for immediate implementation, and some general issues for refinement are summarised to help achieve this, with more detail provided on a range of specific refinements.

catena-[μ-tris(1,2-bis(tetrazol-1-yl)ethane-N4,N4')iron(II)] bis(tetrafluoroborate): Synthesis, structure, spectroscopic and magnetic characterisation of a chain-type coordination polymer spin-crossover compound.

In analogy to a common synthesis of 1-substituted 5-H tetrazoles (Tetrahedron Lett. 36 (1995)1759; Beloruss. Gos. Univ., Minsk, USSR. Khim. Geterotsikl. Soedin. 11 (1985) 1521; Beloruss. Gos. Univ., Minsk, USSR. Khim. Geterotsikl. Soedin. 1 (1991) 66; BGU, Belarus. Vestsi Akad. Navuk Belarusi, Ser. Khim. Navuk 1 (1992) 73), the new bidentate ligand 1,2-bis(tetrazol-1-yl)ethane [endi] was synthesized and characterized by X-ray diffraction, NMR, IR and UV–Vis spectroscopy. By using iron(II) tetrafluoroborate hexahydrate the complexation with this ligand yields a 1-dimensional linear coordination polymer similar to the recently published chain compound (Inorg. Chem. 39 (2000) 1891) exhibiting a thermally induced spin-crossover phenomenon. Similar to the 1,2-bis(tetrazol-1-yl)propane-bridged compound, our 1,2-bis(tetrazol-1-yl)ethane-bridged compound shows a gradual spin transition, but the spin-crossover temperature T1/2≈140 K is found to be 10 K above the other T1/2. The T1/2 was determined by temperature-dependent 57Fe-Mössbauer, far FT-IR and UV–Vis spectroscopy as well as by temperature-dependent magnetic susceptibility measurements. Single crystals of the complex were grown in situ from a solution of the ligand and iron(II) tetrafluoroborate. The X-ray structure determinations of both the high spin as well as the low spin state of the compound revealed a solid state structure, which is comparable to that of catena-[Fe(1,2-bis(tetrazole-1-yl)propane)3](ClO4)2 (Inorg. Chem. 39 (2000) 1891; 2nd TMR-TOSS Meeting, 4th Spin Crossover Family Meeting, Lufthansa Training Center, Seeheim/Germany, April 30–May 2, 1999). Both the 1,2-bis(tetrazol-1-yl)propane-bridged and our compound do not show a thermal hysteresis effect (J. Am. Chem. Soc. 115 (1993) 9810; Inorg. Chim. Acta 37 (1979) 169; Chem. Phys. Lett. 93 (1982) 567). The synthesis of the complex described in the experimental section yielded a fine powdered product being poorly soluble in most common solvents. The single crystal measurements were done with crystals obtained by various diffusion methods. Most of them yielded either thin needles or small hexagonal prism crystals depending on the specific conditions.

Random field models and priors on wind

This report seeks to make concrete some of the ideas we have been discussing about sensible priors for winds over the ocean. In particular, random field models are reviewed, as are permissible covariance functions. The criteria which these covariance functions must satisfy in order that vorticity and divergence exist and are continuous are defined. The use of Helmholtz theorem is discussed, and possible choices for the covariances are suggested.

Structure, dynamics, and energetics of siRNA-cationic vector complexation:a molecular dynamics study

The design and synthesis of safe and efficient nonviral vectors for gene delivery has attracted significant attention in recent years. Previous experiments have revealed that the charge density of a polycation (the carrier) plays a crucial role in complexation and the release of the gene from the complex in the cytosol. In this work, we adopt an atomistic molecular dynamics simulation approach to study the complexation of short strand duplex RNA with six cationic carrier systems of varying charge and surface topology. The simulations reveal detailed molecular-level pictures of the structures and dynamics of the RNA-polycation complexes. Estimates for the binding free energy indicate that electrostatic contributions are dominant followed by van der Waals interactions. The binding free energy between the 8(+)polymers and the RNA is found to be larger than that of the 4(+)polymers, in general agreement with previously published data. Because reliable binding free energies provide an effective index of the ability of the polycationic carrier to bind the nucleic acid and also carry implications for the process of gene release within the cytosol, these novel simulations have the potential to provide us with a much better understanding of key mechanistic aspects of gene-polycation complexation and thereby advance the rational design of nonviral gene delivery systems.

A comparison of linear forecasting models and neural networks:an application to Euro inflation and Euro Divisia

Linear models reach their limitations in applications with nonlinearities in the data. In this paper new empirical evidence is provided on the relative Euro inflation forecasting performance of linear and non-linear models. The well established and widely used univariate ARIMA and multivariate VAR models are used as linear forecasting models whereas neural networks (NN) are used as non-linear forecasting models. It is endeavoured to keep the level of subjectivity in the NN building process to a minimum in an attempt to exploit the full potentials of the NN. It is also investigated whether the historically poor performance of the theoretically superior measure of the monetary services flow, Divisia, relative to the traditional Simple Sum measure could be attributed to a certain extent to the evaluation of these indices within a linear framework. Results obtained suggest that non-linear models provide better within-sample and out-of-sample forecasts and linear models are simply a subset of them. The Divisia index also outperforms the Simple Sum index when evaluated in a non-linear framework. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.

Breast cancer teams:the impact of constitution, new cancer workload and methods of operation on their effectiveness

National guidance and clinical guidelines recommended multidisciplinary teams (MDTs) for cancer services in order to bring specialists in relevant disciplines together, ensure clinical decisions are fully informed, and to coordinate care effectively. However, the effectiveness of cancer teams was not previously evaluated systematically. A random sample of 72 breast cancer teams in England was studied (548 members in six core disciplines), stratified by region and caseload. Information about team constitution, processes, effectiveness, clinical performance, and members' mental well-being was gathered using appropriate instruments. Two input variables, team workload (P=0.009) and the proportion of breast care nurses (P=0.003), positively predicted overall clinical performance in multivariate analysis using a two-stage regression model. There were significant correlations between individual team inputs, team composition variables, and clinical performance. Some disciplines consistently perceived their team's effectiveness differently from the mean. Teams with shared leadership of their clinical decision-making were most effective. The mental well-being of team members appeared significantly better than in previous studies of cancer clinicians, the NHS, and the general population. This study established that team composition, working methods, and workloads are related to measures of effectiveness, including the quality of clinical care. © 2003 Cancer Research UK.

An integrated scheduling problem of PCB components on sequential pick-and-place machines:mathematical models and heuristic solutions

This paper formulates several mathematical models for determining the optimal sequence of component placements and assignment of component types to feeders simultaneously or the integrated scheduling problem for a type of surface mount technology placement machines, called the sequential pick-andplace (PAP) machine. A PAP machine has multiple stationary feeders storing components, a stationary working table holding a printed circuit board (PCB), and a movable placement head to pick up components from feeders and place them to a board. The objective of integrated problem is to minimize the total distance traveled by the placement head. Two integer nonlinear programming models are formulated first. Then, each of them is equivalently converted into an integer linear type. The models for the integrated problem are verified by two commercial packages. In addition, a hybrid genetic algorithm previously developed by the authors is adopted to solve the models. The algorithm not only generates the optimal solutions quickly for small-sized problems, but also outperforms the genetic algorithms developed by other researchers in terms of total traveling distance.

A concise guide to market research:the process, data, and methods using IBM SPSS Statistics

This accessible, practice-oriented and compact text provides a hands-on introduction to the principles of market research. Using the market research process as a framework, the authors explain how to collect and describe the necessary data and present the most important and frequently used quantitative analysis techniques, such as ANOVA, regression analysis, factor analysis, and cluster analysis. An explanation is provided of the theoretical choices a market researcher has to make with regard to each technique, as well as how these are translated into actions in IBM SPSS Statistics. This includes a discussion of what the outputs mean and how they should be interpreted from a market research perspective. Each chapter concludes with a case study that illustrates the process based on real-world data. A comprehensive web appendix includes additional analysis techniques, datasets, video files and case studies. Several mobile tags in the text allow readers to quickly browse related web content using a mobile device.

Implicit leadership theories in applied settings:factor structure, generalizability, and stability over time

The present empirical investigation had a 3-fold purpose: (a) to cross-validate L. R. Offermann, J. K. Kennedy, and P. W. Wirtz's (1994) scale of Implicit Leadership Theories (ILTs) in several organizational settings and to further provide a shorter scale of ILTs in organizations; (b) to assess the generalizability of ILTs across different employee groups, and (c) to evaluate ILTs' change over time. Two independent samples were used for the scale validation (N 1 = 500 and N 2 = 439). A 6-factor structure (Sensitivity, Intelligence, Dedication, Dynamism, Tyranny, and Masculinity) was found to most accurately represent ILTs in organizational settings. Regarding the generalizability of ILTs, although the 6-factor structure was consistent across different employee groups, there was only partial support for total factorial invariance. Finally, evaluation of gamma, beta, and alpha change provided support for ILTs' stability over time.

Stakeholder performance measurement:general approaches and methods of economic evaluation

This paper begins by suggesting that when considering Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), even CSR as justified in terms of the business case, stakeholders are of great importance to corporations. In the UK the Company Law Review (DTI, 2002) has suggested that it is appropriate for UK companies to be managed upon the basis of an enlightened shareholder approach. Within this approach the importance of stakeholders, other than shareholders, is recognised as being instrumental in succeeding in providing shareholder value. Given the importance of these other stakeholders it is then important that corporate management measure and manage stakeholder performance. In order to do this there are two general approaches that could be adopted and these are the use of monetary values to reflect stakeholder value or cost and non-monetary values. In order to consider these approaches further this paper considered the possible use of these approaches for two stakeholder groups: namely employees and the environment. It concludes that there are ethical and practical difficulties with calculating economic values for stakeholder resources and so prefers a multi-dimensional approach to stakeholder performance measurement that does not use economic valuation.

Adaptation and gain pool summation:Alternative models and masking data

Foley [J. Opt. Soc. Am. A 11 (1994) 1710] has proposed an influential psychophysical model of masking in which mask components in a contrast gain pool are raised to an exponent before summation and divisive inhibition. We tested this summation rule in experiments in which contrast detection thresholds were measured for a vertical 1 c/deg (or 2 c/deg) sine-wave component in the presence of a 3 c/deg (or 6 c/deg) mask that had either a single component oriented at -45° or a pair of components oriented at ±45°. Contrary to the predictions of Foley's model 3, we found that for masks of moderate contrast and above, threshold elevation was predicted by linear summation of the mask components in the inhibitory stage of the contrast gain pool. We built this feature into two new models, referred to as the early adaptation model and the hybrid model. In the early adaptation model, contrast adaptation controls a threshold-like nonlinearity on the output of otherwise linear pathways that provide the excitatory and inhibitory inputs to a gain control stage. The hybrid model involves nonlinear and nonadaptable routes to excitatory and inhibitory stages as well as an adaptable linear route. With only six free parameters, both models provide excellent fits to the masking and adaptation data of Foley and Chen [Vision Res. 37 (1997) 2779] but unlike Foley and Chen's model, are able to do so with only one adaptation parameter. However, only the hybrid model is able to capture the features of Foley's (1994) pedestal plus orthogonal fixed mask data. We conclude that (1) linear summation of inhibitory components is a feature of contrast masking, and (2) that the main aftereffect of spatial adaptation on contrast increment thresholds can be assigned to a single site. © 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.