Risk homeostasis theory in simulated environments

This thesis has two aims. First, it sets out to develop an alternative methodology for the investigation of risk homeostasis theory (RHT). It is argued that the current methodologies of the pseudo-experimental design and post hoc analysis of road-traffic accident data both have their limitations, and that the newer 'game' type simulation exercises are also, but for different reasons, incapable of testing RHT predictions. The alternative methodology described here is based on the simulation of physical risk with intrinsic reward rather than a 'points pay-off'. The second aim of the thesis is to examine a number of predictions made by RHT through the use of this alternative methodology. Since the pseudo-experimental design and post hoc analysis of road-traffic data are both ill-suited to the investigation of that part of RHT which deals with the role of utility in determining risk-taking behaviour in response to a change in environmental risk, and since the concept of utility is critical to RHT, the methodology reported here is applied to the specific investigation of utility. Attention too is given to the question of which behavioural pathways carry the homeostasis effect, and whether those pathways are 'local' to the nature of the change in environmental risk. It is suggested that investigating RHT through this new methodology holds a number of advantages and should be developed further in an attempt to answer the RHT question. It is suggested too that the methodology allows RHT to be seen in a psychological context, rather than the statistical context that has so far characterised its investigation. The experimental findings reported here are in support of hypotheses derived from RHT and would therefore seem to argue for the importance of the individual and collective target level of risk, as opposed to the level of environmental risk, as the major determinant of accident loss.

Influence of personal mobile phone ringing and usual intention to answer on driver error

Given evidence of effects of mobile phone use on driving, and also legislation, many careful drivers refrain from answering their phones when driving. However, the distracting influence of a call on driving, even in the context of not answering, has not been examined. Furthermore, given that not answering may be contrary to an individual’s normal habits, this study examined whether distraction caused by the ignored call varies according to normal intention to answer whilst driving. That is, determining whether the effect is more than a simple matter of noise distraction. Participants were 27 young drivers (18-29 years), all regular mobile users. A Theory of Planned Behaviour questionnaire examined predictors of intention to refrain from answering calls whilst driving. Participants provided their mobile phone number and were instructed not to answer their phone if it were to ring during a driving simulation. The simulation scenario had seven hazards (e.g. car pulling out, pedestrian crossing) with three being immediately preceded by a call. Infractions (e.g. pedestrian collisions, vehicle collisions, speed exceedances) were significantly greater when distracted by call tones than with no distraction. Lower intention to ignore calls whilst driving correlated with a larger effect of distraction, as was feeling unable to control whether one answered whilst driving (Perceived Behavioural Control). The study suggests that even an ignored call can cause significantly increased infractions in simulator driving, with pedestrian collisions and speed exceedances being striking examples. Results are discussed in relation to cognitive demands of inhibiting normal behaviour and to drivers being advised to switch phones off whilst driving.

Theory of parabolic pulse generation in tapered fiber

We examine similarities and differences between high-power parabolic pulse generation in an active medium and in tapered fiber with decreasing normal dispersion. Using a realistic tapered fiber design, we demonstrate the possibility of parabolic pulse generation without an external pump and determine the limitations of this approach. © 2007 Optical Society of America.

A world full of surprises:Bayesian theory of surprise to quantify degrees of uncertainty

In the specific area of software engineering (SE) for self-adaptive systems (SASs) there is a growing research awareness about the synergy between SE and artificial intelligence (AI). However, just few significant results have been published so far. In this paper, we propose a novel and formal Bayesian definition of surprise as the basis for quantitative analysis to measure degrees of uncertainty and deviations of self-adaptive systems from normal behavior. A surprise measures how observed data affects the models or assumptions of the world during runtime. The key idea is that a "surprising" event can be defined as one that causes a large divergence between the belief distributions prior to and posterior to the event occurring. In such a case the system may decide either to adapt accordingly or to flag that an abnormal situation is happening. In this paper, we discuss possible applications of Bayesian theory of surprise for the case of self-adaptive systems using Bayesian dynamic decision networks. Copyright © 2014 ACM.