A two-factor model of the U.K. yield curve

I model the forward premium in the U.K. gilt-edged market over the period 1982–96 using a two-factor general equilibrium model of the term structure of interest rates. The model permits the decomposition of the forward premium into separate components representing interest rate expectations, the risk premia associated with each of the underlying factors, and terms capturing the direct impact of the variances of the factors on the shape of the forward curve.

The effect of flow regimes in the distillation of systems containing two liquid phases

Single phase solutions containing three components have been observed to exhibit foaminess near a single to two liquid phase boundary. It was seen, in a sintered plate column under mass transfer conditions, that distillation systems where the liquid appeared as one phase in one part of a column and two phases in another part, exhibited foaminess when the liquid concentration was near the one phase to two phase boundary. Various ternary systems have been studied in a 50 plate. 30mm i.d. Oldershaw column and it was observed that severe foaming occurred in the middle section of the column near the one liquid phase to two liquid phase boundary and no foaming occurred at the end of the column where liquid was either one phase or two phase. This is known as Ross type foam. Mass transfer experiments with Ross type ternary systems have been carried out in a perspex simulator with small and large hole diameter trays. It was observed that by removal of the more volatile component, Ross type foam did not build up on the tray. Severe entrainment of liquid was observed in all cases leading to a 'dry' tray, even with a low free area small diameter hole tray which was expected to produce a bubbly mixture. Entrainment was more severe for high gas superficial velocities and large hole diameters. This behaviour is quite different from the build up of foam observed when one liquid phase/two liquid phase Ross systems were contacted with air above a small sintered disc or with vapour in an Oldershaw distillation column. This observation explains why distillation columns processing mixtures which change from one liquid phase to two liquid phases (or vice versa) must be severely derated to avoid flooding. Single liquid phase holdups at the spray to bubbly transition were measured using a perspex simulator similar to that of Porter & Wong (17). i.e. with no liquid cross flow. A light transmission technique was used to measure the transition from spray regime to bubbly regime. The effect of tray thickness and the ratio of hole diameter to tray thickness on the transition was evaluated using trays of the same hole diameter and free area but having thickness of 2.38 mm, 4 mm, and 6.35 mm. The liquid holdup at the transition was less with the thin metal trays. This result may be interpreted by the theory of Lockett (101), which predicts the transition liquid holdup in terms of the angle of the gas iet leaving the holes in the sieve plate. All the existing correlations have been compared and none were found to be satisfactory and these correlations have been modified in view of the experimental results obtained. A new correlation has been proposed which takes into account the effect of the hole diameter to tray thickness ratio on the transition and good agreement was obtained between the experimental results and the correlated values of the liquid holdup at the transition. Results have been obtained for two immiscible liquids [kerosene and water] on trays to determine whether foaming can be eliminated by operating in the spray regime. Kerosene was added to a fixed volume of water or water was added to a fixed volume of kerosene. In both cases, there was a transition from spray to bubbly. In the water fixed system. the liquid holdup at the transition was slightly less than the pure kerosene system. Whilst for the kerosene fixed system, the transition occurred at much lower liquid holdups. Trends In the results were similar to those for single liquid phase. New correlations have been proposed for the two cases. It has been found that Ross type foams, observed in a sintered plate column and in the Oldershaw column can be eliminated by either carrying out the separation in a packed column or by the addition of defoaming additives.

A two-stage model of orientation integration for Battenberg-modulated micropatterns

The visual system pools information from local samples to calculate textural properties. We used a novel stimulus to investigate how signals are combined to improve estimates of global orientation. Stimuli were 29 × 29 element arrays of 4 c/deg log Gabors, spaced 1° apart. A proportion of these elements had a coherent orientation (horizontal/vertical) with the remainder assigned random orientations. The observer's task was to identify the global orientation. The spatial configuration of the signal was modulated by a checkerboard pattern of square checks containing potential signal elements. The other locations contained either randomly oriented elements (''noise check'') or were blank (''blank check''). The distribution of signal elements was manipulated by varying the size and location of the checks within a fixed-diameter stimulus. An ideal detector would only pool responses from potential signal elements. Humans did this for medium check sizes and for large check sizes when a signal was presented in the fovea. For small check sizes, however, the pooling occurred indiscriminately over relevant and irrelevant locations. For these check sizes, thresholds for the noise check and blank check conditions were similar, suggesting that the limiting noise is not induced by the response to the noise elements. The results are described by a model that filters the stimulus at the potential target orientations and then combines the signals over space in two stages. The first is a mandatory integration of local signals over a fixed area, limited by internal noise at each location. The second is a taskdependent combination of the outputs from the first stage. © 2014 ARVO.

Mass transfer characteristics of two-aqueous-phase liquid-liquid mixtures

Mass transfer rates were studied using the falling drop method. Cibacron Blue 3 GA dye was the transferring solute from the salt phase to the PEG phase. Measurements were undertaken for several concentrations of the dye and the phase-forming solutes and with a range of different drop sizes, e.g. 2.8, 3.0 and 3.7 mm. The dye was observed to be present in the salt phase as finely dispersed solids but a model confirmed that the mass transfer process could still be described by an equation based upon the Whitman two-film model. The overall mass transfer coefficient increased with increasing concentration of the dye. The apparent mass transfer coefficient ranged from 1 x 10-5 to 2 x 10 -4 m/s. Further experiments suggested that mass transfer was enhanced at high concentration by several mechanisms. The dye was found to change the equilibrium composition of the two phases, leading to transfer of salt between the drop and continuous phases. It also lowered the interfacial tension (i.e. from 1.43 x 10-4 N/m for 0.01% w/w dye concentration to 1.07 x 10-4 N/m for 0.2% w/w dye concentration) between the two phases, which could have caused interfacial instabilities (Marangoni effects). The largest drops were deformable, which resulted in a significant increase in the mass transfer rate. Drop size distribution and Sauter mean drop diameter were studied on-line in a 1 litre agitated vessel using a laser diffraction technique. The effects of phase concentration, dispersed phase hold-up and impeller speed were investigated for the salt-PEG system. An increase in agitation speed in the range 300 rpm to 1000 rpm caused a decrease in mean drop diameter, e.g. from 50 m to 15 m. A characteristic bimodal drop size distribution was established within a very short time. An increase in agitation rate caused a shift of the larger drop size peak to a smaller size.

Binocular interaction:Contrast matching and contrast discrimination are predicted by the same model

How do signals from the 2 eyes combine and interact? Our recent work has challenged earlier schemes in which monocular contrast signals are subject to square-law transduction followed by summation across eyes and binocular gain control. Much more successful was a new 'two-stage' model in which the initial transducer was almost linear and contrast gain control occurred both pre- and post-binocular summation. Here we extend that work by: (i) exploring the two-dimensional stimulus space (defined by left- and right-eye contrasts) more thoroughly, and (ii) performing contrast discrimination and contrast matching tasks for the same stimuli. Twenty-five base-stimuli made from 1 c/deg patches of horizontal grating, were defined by the factorial combination of 5 contrasts for the left eye (0.3-32%) with five contrasts for the right eye (0.3-32%). Other than in contrast, the gratings in the two eyes were identical. In a 2IFC discrimination task, the base-stimuli were masks (pedestals), where the contrast increment was presented to one eye only. In a matching task, the base-stimuli were standards to which observers matched the contrast of either a monocular or binocular test grating. In the model, discrimination depends on the local gradient of the observer's internal contrast-response function, while matching equates the magnitude (rather than gradient) of response to the test and standard. With all model parameters fixed by previous work, the two-stage model successfully predicted both the discrimination and the matching data and was much more successful than linear or quadratic binocular summation models. These results show that performance measures and perception (contrast discrimination and contrast matching) can be understood in the same theoretical framework for binocular contrast vision. © 2007 VSP.

Interocular masking and summation indicate two stages of divisive contrast gain control

Our understanding of early spatial vision owes much to contrast masking and summation paradigms. In particular, the deep region of facilitation at low mask contrasts is thought to indicate a rapidly accelerating contrast transducer (eg a square-law or greater). In experiment 1, we tapped an early stage of this process by measuring monocular and binocular thresholds for patches of 1 cycle deg-1 sine-wave grating. Threshold ratios were around 1.7, implying a nearly linear transducer with an exponent around 1.3. With this form of transducer, two previous models (Legge, 1984 Vision Research 24 385 - 394; Meese et al, 2004 Perception 33 Supplement, 41) failed to fit the monocular, binocular, and dichoptic masking functions measured in experiment 2. However, a new model with two-stages of divisive gain control fits the data very well. Stage 1 incorporates nearly linear monocular transducers (to account for the high level of binocular summation and slight dichoptic facilitation), and monocular and interocular suppression (to fit the profound 42 Oral presentations: Spatial vision Thursday dichoptic masking). Stage 2 incorporates steeply accelerating transduction (to fit the deep regions of monocular and binocular facilitation), and binocular summation and suppression (to fit the monocular and binocular masking). With all model parameters fixed from the discrimination thresholds, we examined the slopes of the psychometric functions. The monocular and binocular slopes were steep (Weibull ߘ3-4) at very low mask contrasts and shallow (ߘ1.2) at all higher contrasts, as predicted by all three models. The dichoptic slopes were steep (ߘ3-4) at very low contrasts, and very steep (ß>5.5) at high contrasts (confirming Meese et al, loco cit.). A crucial new result was that intermediate dichoptic mask contrasts produced shallow slopes (ߘ2). Only the two-stage model predicted the observed pattern of slope variation, so providing good empirical support for a two-stage process of binocular contrast transduction. [Supported by EPSRC GR/S74515/01]

Population pharmacokinetics of single-dose intravenous paracetamol in children

Background To determine the pharmacokinetics (PK) of a new i.v. formulation of paracetamol (Perfalgan) in children ≤15 yr of age. Methods After obtaining written informed consent, children under 16 yr of age were recruited to this study. Blood samples were obtained at 0, 15, 30 min, 1, 2, 4, 6, and 8 h after administration of a weight-dependent dose of i.v. paracetamol. Paracetamol concentration was measured using a validated high-performance liquid chromatographic assay with ultraviolet detection method, with a lower limit of quantification (LLOQ) of 900 pg on column and an intra-day coefficient of variation of 14.3% at the LLOQ. Population PK analysis was performed by non-linear mixed-effect modelling using NONMEM. Results One hundred and fifty-nine blood samples from 33 children aged 1.8–15 yr, weight 13.7–56 kg, were analysed. Data were best described by a two-compartment model. Only body weight as a covariate significantly improved the goodness of fit of the model. The final population models for paracetamol clearance (CL), V1 (central volume of distribution), Q (inter-compartmental clearance), and V2 (peripheral volume of distribution) were: 16.51×(WT/70)0.75, 28.4×(WT/70), 11.32×(WT/70)0.75, and 13.26×(WT/70), respectively (CL, Q in litres per hour, WT in kilograms, and V1 and V2 in litres). Conclusions In children aged 1.8–15 yr, the PK parameters for i.v. paracetamol were not influenced directly by age but were by total body weight and, using allometric size scaling, significantly affected the clearances (CL, Q) and volumes of distribution (V1, V2).

The enantioselective population pharmacokinetics of intravenous ketorolac in children using a stereoselective assay suitable for microanalysis

Objective: To describe the effect of age and body size on enantiomer selective pharmacokinetic (PK) of intravenous ketorolac in children using a microanalytical assay. Methods: Blood samples were obtained at 0, 15 and 30 min and at 1, 2, 4, 6, 8 and 12 h after a weight-dependent dose of ketorolac. Enantiomer concentration was measured using a liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry method. Non-linear mixed-effect modelling was used to assess PK parameters. Key findings: Data from 11 children (1.7–15.6 years, weight 10.7–67.4 kg) were best described by a two-compartment model for R(+), S(−) and racemic ketorolac. Only weight (WT) significantly improved the goodness of fit. The final population models were CL = 1.5 × (WT/46)0.75, V1 = 8.2 × (WT/46), Q = 3.4 × (WT/46)0.75, V2 = 7.9 × (WT/46), CL = 2.98 × (WT/46), V1 = 13.2 × (WT/46), Q = 2.8 × (WT/46)0.75, V2 = 51.5 × (WT/46), and CL = 1.1 × (WT/46)0.75, V1 = 4.9 × (WT/46), Q = 1.7 × (WT/46)0.75 and V2 = 6.3 × (WT/46)for R(+), S(−) and racemic ketorolac. Conclusions: Only body weight influenced the PK parameters for R(+) and S(−) ketorolac. Using allometric size scaling significantly affected the clearances (CL, Q) and volumes of distribution (V1, V2).

Effects of solid poly (ethylene glycols) addition to the solutions of aniline or N,N-dimethylaniline with water:experimental measurements and modelling

In this work, the liquid-liquid and solid-liquid phase behaviour of ten aqueous pseudo-binary and three binary systems containing polyethylene glycol (PEG) 2050, polyethylene glycol 35000, aniline, N,N-dimethylaniline and water, in the temperature range 298.15-350.15 K and at ambient pressure of 0.1 MPa, was studied. The obtained temperature-composition phase diagrams showed that the only functional co-solvent was PEG2050 for aniline in water, while PEG35000 even showed a clear anti-solvent effect in the N,N-dimethylaniline aqueous system. The experimental solid-liquid equilibria (SLE) data have been correlated by the non-random two-liquid (NRTL) model, and the correlation results are in accordance with the experimental results.

Binocular contrast vision at and above threshold

A fundamental problem for any visual system with binocular overlap is the combination of information from the two eyes. Electrophysiology shows that binocular integration of luminance contrast occurs early in visual cortex, but a specific systems architecture has not been established for human vision. Here, we address this by performing binocular summation and monocular, binocular, and dichoptic masking experiments for horizontal 1 cycle per degree test and masking gratings. These data reject three previously published proposals, each of which predict too little binocular summation and insufficient dichoptic facilitation. However, a simple development of one of the rejected models (the twin summation model) and a completely new model (the two-stage model) provide very good fits to the data. Two features common to both models are gently accelerating (almost linear) contrast transduction prior to binocular summation and suppressive ocular interactions that contribute to contrast gain control. With all model parameters fixed, both models correctly predict (1) systematic variation in psychometric slopes, (2) dichoptic contrast matching, and (3) high levels of binocular summation for various levels of binocular pedestal contrast. A review of evidence from elsewhere leads us to favor the two-stage model. © 2006 ARVO.

Contrast masking in strabismic amblyopia: attenuation, noise, interocular suppression and binocular summation

To investigate amblyopic contrast vision at threshold and above we performed pedestal-masking (contrastdiscrimination) experiments with a group of eight strabismic amblyopes using horizontal sinusoidal gratings (mainly 3 c/deg) in monocular, binocular and dichoptic configurations balanced across eye (i.e. five conditions). With some exceptions in some observers, the four main results were as follows. (1) For the monocular and dichoptic conditions, sensitivity was less in the amblyopic eye than in the good eye at all mask contrasts. (2) Binocular and monocular dipper functions superimposed in the good eye. (3) Monocular masking functions had a normal dipper shape in the good eye, but facilitation was diminished in the amblyopic eye. (4) A less consistent result was normal facilitation in dichoptic masking when testing the good eye, but a loss of this when testing the amblyopic eye. This pattern of amblyopic results was replicated in a normal observer by placing a neutral density filter in front of one eye. The two-stage model of binocular contrast gain control [Meese, T.S., Georgeson, M.A. & Baker, D.H. (2006). Binocular contrast vision at and above threshold. Journal of Vision 6, 1224--1243.] was `lesioned' in several ways to assess the form of the amblyopic deficit. The most successful model involves attenuation of signal and an increase in noise in the amblyopic eye, and intact stages of interocular suppression and binocular summation. This implies a behavioural influence from monocular noise in the amblyopic visual system as well as in normal observers with an ND filter over one eye.

Binocular contrast interactions:Dichoptic masking is not a single process

To decouple interocular suppression and binocular summation we varied the relative phase of mask and target in a 2IFC contrast-masking paradigm. In Experiment I, dichoptic mask gratings had the same orientation and spatial frequency as the target. For in-phase masking, suppression was strong (a log-log slope of ∼1) and there was weak facilitation at low mask contrasts. Anti-phase masking was weaker (a log-log slope of ∼0.7) and there was no facilitation. A two-stage model of contrast gain control [Meese, T.S., Georgeson, M.A. and Baker, D.H. (2006). Binocular contrast vision at and above threshold. Journal of Vision, 6: 1224-1243] provided a good fit to the in-phase results and fixed its free parameters. It made successful predictions (with no free parameters) for the anti-phase results when (A) interocular suppression was phase-indifferent but (B) binocular summation was phase sensitive. Experiments II and III showed that interocular suppression comprised two components: (i) a tuned effect with an orientation bandwidth of ∼±33° and a spatial frequency bandwidth of >3 octaves, and (ii) an untuned effect that elevated threshold by a factor of between 2 and 4. Operationally, binocular summation was more tightly tuned, having an orientation bandwidth of ∼±8°, and a spatial frequency bandwidth of ∼0.5 octaves. Our results replicate the unusual shapes of the in-phase dichoptic tuning functions reported by Legge [Legge, G.E. (1979). Spatial frequency masking in human vision: Binocular interactions. Journal of the Optical Society of America, 69: 838-847]. These can now be seen as the envelope of the direct effects from interocular suppression and the indirect effect from binocular summation, which contaminates the signal channel with a mask that has been suppressed by the target. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The innovation decision:an economic analysis

Studies of the determinants and effects of innovation commonly make an assumption about the way in which firms make the decision to innovate, but rarely test this assumption. Using a panel of Irish manufacturing firms we test the performance of two alternative models of the innovation decision, and find that a two-stage model (the firm decides whether to innovate, then whether to perform product only, process only or both) outperforms a one-stage, simultaneous model. We also find that external knowledge sourcing affects the innovation decision and the type of innovation undertaken in a way not previously recognised in the literature. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors affecting human reliability in the chemical process industry

This research was concerned with identifying factors which may influence human reliability within chemical process plants - these factors are referred to as Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs). Following a period of familiarization within the industry, a number of case studies were undertaken covering a range of basic influencing factors. Plant records and site `lost time incident reports' were also used as supporting evidence for identifying and classifying PSFs. In parallel to the investigative research, the available literature appertaining to human reliability assessment and PSFs was considered in relation to the chemical process plan environment. As a direct result of this work, a PSF classification structure has been produced with an accompanying detailed listing. Phase two of the research considered the identification of important individual PSFs for specific situations. Based on the experience and data gained during phase one, it emerged that certain generic features of a task influenced PSF relevance. This led to the establishment of a finite set of generic task groups and response types. Similarly, certain PSFs influence some human errors more than others. The result was a set of error type key words, plus the identification and classification of error causes with their underlying error mechanisms. By linking all these aspects together, a comprehensive methodology has been forwarded as the basis of a computerized aid for system designers. To recapitulate, the major results of this research have been: One, the development of a comprehensive PSF listing specifically for the chemical process industries with a classification structure that facilitates future updates; and two, a model of identifying relevant SPFs and their order of priority. Future requirements are the evaluation of the PSF listing and the identification method. The latter must be considered both in terms of `useability' and its success as a design enhancer, in terms of an observable reduction in important human errors.

Foreign direct investment and economic development:an interactive relationship

With the increasing importance of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), there have been substantial studies on this issue, both empirically and theoretically. However, most existing studies focus on either the impacts of FDI presence or the determinants of FDI inflows, ignoring the fact that inward FDI and economic development may simultaneously affect each other. This thesis sets out to examine the interactive effects between FDI and economic development. The whole thesis is composed of five chapters. Chapter One is an overall introduction to the thesis. Chapter Two presents a theoretical study and chapter Two and Three provide two empirical studies. Chapter Five concludes. Chapter Two presents a theoretical two-sector model that features the importance of human capital in attracting foreign investment. This model theoretically explains why FDI is more likely to occur among countries that are similar in terms of human capital and technology. On the other hand, MNCs must train local employees to work with firm-specific technology and hence improve the technological skills of local workers. In Chapter Two, an empirical model is constructed to detect whether the productivities of foreign and local firms impact each other. The model is tested on China’s data at the industry level. The results indicate that productivity growth of local and foreign firms are jointly determined. Evidence also suggests that the extent to which spillovers occur varies with difference technology levels of local firms. Chapter Four investigates the relationship between FDI and economic grown based on a panel of data for 84 countries over the period 1970-1999. Both equations of FDI inflow and GDP growth are examined. The results indicate that FDI not only directly promotes economic growth by itself, but also indirectly does so via its interaction terms. There is a strong positive interaction effect of FDI with human capital and a strong negative interaction effect of FDI with technology gap on economic growth in developing countries.