Using non-parametric search algorithms to forecast daily excess stock returns

Are the learning procedures of genetic algorithms (GAs) able to generate optimal architectures for artificial neural networks (ANNs) in high frequency data? In this experimental study,GAs are used to identify the best architecture for ANNs. Additional learning is undertaken by the ANNs to forecast daily excess stock returns. No ANN architectures were able to outperform a random walk,despite the finding of non-linearity in the excess returns. This failure is attributed to the absence of suitable ANN structures and further implies that researchers need to be cautious when making inferences from ANN results that use high frequency data.

Breaking down the non-normality of daily stock returns

This paper investigates whether the non-normality typically observed in daily stock-market returns could arise because of the joint existence of breaks and GARCH effects. It proposes a data-driven procedure to credibly identify the number and timing of breaks and applies it on the benchmark stock-market indices of 27 OECD countries. The findings suggest that a substantial element of the observed deviations from normality might indeed be due to the co-existence of breaks and GARCH effects. However, the presence of structural changes is found to be the primary reason for the non-normality and not the GARCH effects. Also, there is still some remaining excess kurtosis that is unlikely to be linked to the specification of the conditional volatility or the presence of breaks. Finally, an interesting sideline result implies that GARCH models have limited capacity in forecasting stock-market volatility.

Anyone for non-scalarity?

This paper examines the status of scalarity in the analysis of the meaning of the English determiner any. The latter’s position as a prime exemplar of the category of polarity-sensitive items has led it to be generally assumed to have scalar meaning. Scalar effects are absent however from a number of common uses of this word. This suggests that any does not involve scales as part of its core meaning, but produces them as a derived interpretative property. The role of three factors in the derivation of the expressive effect of scalarity is explored: grammatical number, stress and the presence of gradable concepts in the NP. The general conclusions point to the importance of developing a causal semantic analysis in which the contributions of each of the various meaningful components of an utterance to the overall message expressed are carefully distinguished.

Non-aqueous silicone elastomer gels as a vaginal microbicide delivery system for the HIV-1 entry inhibitor maraviroc

Aqueous semi-solid polymeric gels, such as those based on hydroxyethylcellulose (HEC) and polyacrylic acid (e.g. Carbopol®), have a long history of use in vaginal drug delivery. However, despite their ubiquity, they often provide sub-optimal clinical performance, due to poor mucosal retention and limited solubility for poorly water-soluble actives. These issues are particularly pertinent for vaginal HIV microbicides, since many lead candidates are poorly water-soluble and where a major goal is the development of a coitally independent, once daily gel product. In this study, we report the use of a non-aqueous silicone elastomer gel for vaginal delivery of the HIV-1 entry inhibitor maraviroc. In vitro rheological, syringeability and retention studies demonstrated enhanced performance for silicone gels compared with a conventional aqueous HEC gel, while testing of the gels in the slug model confirmed a lack of mucosal irritancy. Pharmacokinetic studies following single dose vaginal administration of a maraviroc silicone gel in rhesus macaques showed higher and sustained MVC levels in vaginal fluid, vaginal tissue and plasma compared with a HEC gel containing the same maraviroc loading. The results demonstrate that non-aqueous silicone gels have potential as a formulation platform for coitally independent vaginal HIV microbicides.

Distinctive manufacturing competence or core competence:which is more relevant in non-corporate organizations?

This paper addresses the issues of what core competencies mean in the light of the earlier existing concept of distinctive manufacturing competencies (or manufacturing competencies). The apparent parallels bel ween these two concepts are highlighted and considered. The results of empirical research comlucled via a survey of UK non-corporate organizations is presented and then analyzed. The results from the investigation lead directly to conclusions about the relevance of these competency concepts to non-corporate, non-multinational organizations.

Analysis of constructivist, network-based discourses:concepts, prospects, and illustrations

The authors propose a new approach to discourse analysis which is based on meta data from social networking behavior of learners who are submerged in a socially constructivist e-learning environment. It is shown that traditional data modeling techniques can be combined with social network analysis - an approach that promises to yield new insights into the largely uncharted domain of network-based discourse analysis. The chapter is treated as a non-technical introduction and is illustrated with real examples, visual representations, and empirical findings. Within the setting of a constructivist statistics course, the chapter provides an illustration of what network-based discourse analysis is about (mainly from a methodological point of view), how it is implemented in practice, and why it is relevant for researchers and educators.

“I didn’t mean to steal someone else’s words!”:a forensic linguistic approach to detecting intentional plagiarism

The concept of plagiarism is not uncommonly associated with the concept of intellectual property, both for historical and legal reasons: the approach to the ownership of ‘moral’, nonmaterial goods has evolved to the right to individual property, and consequently a need was raised to establish a legal framework to cope with the infringement of those rights. The solution to plagiarism therefore falls most often under two categories: ethical and legal. On the ethical side, education and intercultural studies have addressed plagiarism critically, not only as a means to improve academic ethics policies (PlagiarismAdvice.org, 2008), but mainly to demonstrate that if anything the concept of plagiarism is far from being universal (Howard & Robillard, 2008). Even if differently, Howard (1995) and Scollon (1994, 1995) argued, and Angèlil-Carter (2000) and Pecorari (2008) later emphasised that the concept of plagiarism cannot be studied on the grounds that one definition is clearly understandable by everyone. Scollon (1994, 1995), for example, claimed that authorship attribution is particularly a problem in non-native writing in English, and so did Pecorari (2008) in her comprehensive analysis of academic plagiarism. If among higher education students plagiarism is often a problem of literacy, with prior, conflicting social discourses that may interfere with academic discourse, as Angèlil-Carter (2000) demonstrates, we then have to aver that a distinction should be made between intentional and inadvertent plagiarism: plagiarism should be prosecuted when intentional, but if it is part of the learning process and results from the plagiarist’s unfamiliarity with the text or topic it should be considered ‘positive plagiarism’ (Howard, 1995: 796) and hence not an offense. Determining the intention behind the instances of plagiarism therefore determines the nature of the disciplinary action adopted. Unfortunately, in order to demonstrate the intention to deceive and charge students with accusations of plagiarism, teachers necessarily have to position themselves as ‘plagiarism police’, although it has been argued otherwise (Robillard, 2008). Practice demonstrates that in their daily activities teachers will find themselves being required a command of investigative skills and tools that they most often lack. We thus claim that the ‘intention to deceive’ cannot inevitably be dissociated from plagiarism as a legal issue, even if Garner (2009) asserts that generally plagiarism is immoral but not illegal, and Goldstein (2003) makes the same severance. However, these claims, and the claim that only cases of copyright infringement tend to go to court, have recently been challenged, mainly by forensic linguists, who have been actively involved in cases of plagiarism. Turell (2008), for instance, demonstrated that plagiarism is often connoted with an illegal appropriation of ideas. Previously, she (Turell, 2004) had demonstrated by comparison of four translations of Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar to Spanish that the use of linguistic evidence is able to demonstrate instances of plagiarism. This challenge is also reinforced by practice in international organisations, such as the IEEE, to whom plagiarism potentially has ‘severe ethical and legal consequences’ (IEEE, 2006: 57). What plagiarism definitions used by publishers and organisations have in common – and which the academia usually lacks – is their focus on the legal nature. We speculate that this is due to the relation they intentionally establish with copyright laws, whereas in education the focus tends to shift from the legal to the ethical aspects. However, the number of plagiarism cases taken to court is very small, and jurisprudence is still being developed on the topic. In countries within the Civil Law tradition, Turell (2008) claims, (forensic) linguists are seldom called upon as expert witnesses in cases of plagiarism, either because plagiarists are rarely taken to court or because there is little tradition of accepting linguistic evidence. In spite of the investigative and evidential potential of forensic linguistics to demonstrate the plagiarist’s intention or otherwise, this potential is restricted by the ability to identify a text as being suspect of plagiarism. In an era with such a massive textual production, ‘policing’ plagiarism thus becomes an extraordinarily difficult task without the assistance of plagiarism detection systems. Although plagiarism detection has attracted the attention of computer engineers and software developers for years, a lot of research is still needed. Given the investigative nature of academic plagiarism, plagiarism detection has of necessity to consider not only concepts of education and computational linguistics, but also forensic linguistics. Especially, if intended to counter claims of being a ‘simplistic response’ (Robillard & Howard, 2008). In this paper, we use a corpus of essays written by university students who were accused of plagiarism, to demonstrate that a forensic linguistic analysis of improper paraphrasing in suspect texts has the potential to identify and provide evidence of intention. A linguistic analysis of the corpus texts shows that the plagiarist acts on the paradigmatic axis to replace relevant lexical items with a related word from the same semantic field, i.e. a synonym, a subordinate, a superordinate, etc. In other words, relevant lexical items were replaced with related, but not identical, ones. Additionally, the analysis demonstrates that the word order is often changed intentionally to disguise the borrowing. On the other hand, the linguistic analysis of linking and explanatory verbs (i.e. referencing verbs) and prepositions shows that these have the potential to discriminate instances of ‘patchwriting’ and instances of plagiarism. This research demonstrates that the referencing verbs are borrowed from the original in an attempt to construct the new text cohesively when the plagiarism is inadvertent, and that the plagiarist has made an effort to prevent the reader from identifying the text as plagiarism, when it is intentional. In some of these cases, the referencing elements prove being able to identify direct quotations and thus ‘betray’ and denounce plagiarism. Finally, we demonstrate that a forensic linguistic analysis of these verbs is critical to allow detection software to identify them as proper paraphrasing and not – mistakenly and simplistically – as plagiarism.

COOPER-framework:a unified process for non-parametric projects

Practitioners assess performance of entities in increasingly large and complicated datasets. If non-parametric models, such as Data Envelopment Analysis, were ever considered as simple push-button technologies, this is impossible when many variables are available or when data have to be compiled from several sources. This paper introduces by the 'COOPER-framework' a comprehensive model for carrying out non-parametric projects. The framework consists of six interrelated phases: Concepts and objectives, On structuring data, Operational models, Performance comparison model, Evaluation, and Result and deployment. Each of the phases describes some necessary steps a researcher should examine for a well defined and repeatable analysis. The COOPER-framework provides for the novice analyst guidance, structure and advice for a sound non-parametric analysis. The more experienced analyst benefits from a check list such that important issues are not forgotten. In addition, by the use of a standardized framework non-parametric assessments will be more reliable, more repeatable, more manageable, faster and less costly. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clinical performance of daily disposable soft contact lenses using sustained release technology

Purpose: Polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) is a successful tear film stabiliser and is widely used in comfort drops and some soft contact lens materials. A PVA-containing lens, nelfilcon A has been modified to include additional (non-functional) PVA in order to provide improved comfort. This study aims to examine the clinical performance of this nelfilcon A lens with AquaRelease™ (AquaRelease). Methods: Two contralateral, investigator masked, open label, subjective and objective evaluations were conducted. The first examined the effect of adding increased molecular weight PVA to nelfilcon A (n = 5), and the second compared this AquaRelease lens to ocufilcon B (n = 34). The principal measures were non-invasive break-up time (NIBUT) and subjective comfort, which were assessed at the beginning and end of a week of daily wear, and three times throughout 1 day at 8, 12 and 16 h. Results: All subjects successfully completed the daily wearing schedule of 16 h. On initial insertion, subjective comfort and NIBUT improved for AquaRelease than original nelfilcon A lenses (p < 0.05). Initial comfort was better for AquaRelease compared to ocufilcon B lenses (p = 0.01); however, NIBUT was not statistically different (11.7 ± 15.6 s versus 8.4 ± 6.8 s; p = 0.26). Subjective comfort decreased with time (p < 0.001), but there was no significant difference between AquaRelease and ocufilcon B lenses (p = 0.16). NIBUT was not significantly affected by time (p = 0.56) or between lenses (p = 0.33). At the end of a weeks' wear, subjective initial, end-of-day, overall comfort and vision were rated significantly better with AquaRelease than ocufilcon B (p < 0.01). Conclusions: Release of additional non-functionalised PVA from the nelfilcon A lenses appears to enhance comfortable contact lens wear. © 2006 British Contact Lens Association.

Customer loyalty among daily disposable contact lens wearers

Background: Optometric practices offer contact lenses as cash sale items or as part of monthly payment plans. With the contact lens market becoming increasingly competitive, patients are opting to purchase lenses from supermarkets and Internet suppliers. Monthly payment plans are often implemented to improve loyalty. This study aimed to compare behavioural loyalty between monthly payment plan members and non-members. Methods: BBR Optometry Ltd offers a monthly payment plan (Eyelife™) to their contact lens wearers. A retrospective audit of 38 Eyelife™ members (mean. ±. SD: 42.7. ±. 15.0 years) and 30 non-members (mean. ±. SD: 40.8. ±. 16.7 years) was conducted. Revenue and profits generated, service uptake and product sales between the two groups were compared over a fixed period of 18 months. Results: Eyelife™ members generated significantly higher professional fee revenue ( P<. 0.001), £153.96 compared to £83.50, and profits ( P<. 0.001). Eyelife™ members had a higher uptake of eye examinations ( P<. 0.001). The 2 groups demonstrated no significant difference in spectacle sales by volume ( P= 0.790) or value ( P= 0.369). There were also no significant differences in contact lens revenue ( P= 0.337), although Eyelife™ members did receive a discount. The Eyelife™ group incurred higher contact lens costs ( P= 0.037), due to a greater volume of contact lens purchases, 986 units compared to 582. Conclusions: Monthly payment plans improve loyalty among contact lens wearers, particularly service uptake and volume of lens purchases. Additionally the greater professional fees generated, render monthly payment plans an attractive business model and practice builder.

The influence of end of day silicone hydrogel daily disposable contact lens fit on ocular comfort, physiology and lens wettability

Purpose: To quantify the end-of-day silicone-hydrogel daily disposable contact lens fit and its influence of on ocular comfort, physiology and lens wettability. Methods: Thirty-nine subjects (22.1. ±. 3.5 years) were randomised to wear each of 3 silicone-hydrogel daily-disposable contact lenses (narafilcon A, delefilcon A and filcon II 3), bilaterally, for one week. Lens fit was assessed objectively using a digital video slit-lamp at 8, 12 and 16. h after lens insertion. Hyperaemia, non-invasive tear break-up time, tear meniscus height and comfort were also evaluated at these timepoints, while corneal and conjunctival staining were assessed on lens removal. Results: Lens fit assessments were not different between brands (P > 0.05), with the exception of the movement at blink where narafilcon A was more mobile. Overall, lag reduced but push-up speed increased from 8 to 12. h (P <. 0.05), but remained stable from 12 to 16. h (P > 0.05). Movement-on-blink was unaffected by wear-time (F = 0.403, P = 0.670). A more mobile lens fit with one brand did not indicate that person would have a more mobile fit with another brand (r = -0.06 to 0.63). Lens fit was not correlated with comfort, ocular physiology or lens wettability (P > 0.01). Conclusions: Among the lenses tested, objective lens fit changed between 8. h and 12. h of lens wear. The weak correlation in individual lens fit between brands indicates that fit is dependent on more than ocular shape. Consequently, substitution of a different lens brand with similar parameters will not necessarily provide comparable lens fit.

Temporal solitonic crystals and non-Hermitian informational lattices

Clusters of temporal optical solitons—stable self-localized light pulses preserving their form during propagation—exhibit properties characteristic of that encountered in crystals. Here, we introduce the concept of temporal solitonic information crystals formed by the lattices of optical pulses with variable phases. The proposed general idea offers new approaches to optical coherent transmission technology and can be generalized to dispersion-managed and dissipative solitons as well as scaled to a variety of physical platforms from fiber optics to silicon chips. We discuss the key properties of such dynamic temporal crystals that mathematically correspond to non-Hermitian lattices and examine the types of collective mode instabilities determining the lifetime of the soliton train. This transfer of techniques and concepts from solid state physics to information theory promises a new outlook on information storage and transmission.

Health beliefs affect the correct replacement of daily disposable contact lenses:predicting compliance with the Health Belief Model and the Theory of Planned Behaviour

Purpose: To assess the compliance of Daily Disposable Contact Lenses (DDCLs) wearers with replacing lenses at a manufacturer-recommended replacement frequency. To evaluate the ability of two different Health Behavioural Theories (HBT), The Health Belief Model (HBM) and The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), in predicting compliance. Method: A multi-centre survey was conducted using a questionnaire completed anonymously by contact lens wearers during the purchase of DDCLs. Results: Three hundred and fifty-four questionnaires were returned. The survey comprised 58.5% females and 41.5% males (mean age 34. ±. 12. years). Twenty-three percent of respondents were non-compliant with manufacturer-recommended replacement frequency (re-using DDCLs at least once). The main reason for re-using DDCLs was "to save money" (35%). Predictions of compliance behaviour (past behaviour or future intentions) on the basis of the two HBT was investigated through logistic regression analysis: both TPB factors (subjective norms and perceived behavioural control) were significant (p. <. 0.01); HBM was less predictive with only the severity (past behaviour and future intentions) and perceived benefit (only for past behaviour) as significant factors (p. <. 0.05). Conclusions: Non-compliance with DDCLs replacement is widespread, affecting 1 out of 4 Italian wearers. Results from the TPB model show that the involvement of persons socially close to the wearers (subjective norms) and the improvement of the procedure of behavioural control of daily replacement (behavioural control) are of paramount importance in improving compliance. With reference to the HBM, it is important to warn DDCLs wearers of the severity of a contact-lens-related eye infection, and to underline the possibility of its prevention.