Neural network-based wind vector retrieval from satellite scatterometer data

Obtaining wind vectors over the ocean is important for weather forecasting and ocean modelling. Several satellite systems used operationally by meteorological agencies utilise scatterometers to infer wind vectors over the oceans. In this paper we present the results of using novel neural network based techniques to estimate wind vectors from such data. The problem is partitioned into estimating wind speed and wind direction. Wind speed is modelled using a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and a sum of squares error function. Wind direction is a periodic variable and a multi-valued function for a given set of inputs; a conventional MLP fails at this task, and so we model the full periodic probability density of direction conditioned on the satellite derived inputs using a Mixture Density Network (MDN) with periodic kernel functions. A committee of the resulting MDNs is shown to improve the results.

Neural network-based wind vector retrieval from satellite scatterometer data

Obtaining wind vectors over the ocean is important for weather forecasting and ocean modelling. Several satellite systems used operationally by meteorological agencies utilise scatterometers to infer wind vectors over the oceans. In this paper we present the results of using novel neural network based techniques to estimate wind vectors from such data. The problem is partitioned into estimating wind speed and wind direction. Wind speed is modelled using a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and a sum of squares error function. Wind direction is a periodic variable and a multi-valued function for a given set of inputs; a conventional MLP fails at this task, and so we model the full periodic probability density of direction conditioned on the satellite derived inputs using a Mixture Density Network (MDN) with periodic kernel functions. A committee of the resulting MDNs is shown to improve the results.

Real-time control of a Tokamak plasma using neural networks

This paper presents results from the first use of neural networks for the real-time feedback control of high temperature plasmas in a Tokamak fusion experiment. The Tokamak is currently the principal experimental device for research into the magnetic confinement approach to controlled fusion. In the Tokamak, hydrogen plasmas, at temperatures of up to 100 Million K, are confined by strong magnetic fields. Accurate control of the position and shape of the plasma boundary requires real-time feedback control of the magnetic field structure on a time-scale of a few tens of microseconds. Software simulations have demonstrated that a neural network approach can give significantly better performance than the linear technique currently used on most Tokamak experiments. The practical application of the neural network approach requires high-speed hardware, for which a fully parallel implementation of the multi-layer perceptron, using a hybrid of digital and analogue technology, has been developed.

Estimating conditional volatility with neural networks

It is well known that one of the obstacles to effective forecasting of exchange rates is heteroscedasticity (non-stationary conditional variance). The autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) model and its variants have been used to estimate a time dependent variance for many financial time series. However, such models are essentially linear in form and we can ask whether a non-linear model for variance can improve results just as non-linear models (such as neural networks) for the mean have done. In this paper we consider two neural network models for variance estimation. Mixture Density Networks (Bishop 1994, Nix and Weigend 1994) combine a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and a mixture model to estimate the conditional data density. They are trained using a maximum likelihood approach. However, it is known that maximum likelihood estimates are biased and lead to a systematic under-estimate of variance. More recently, a Bayesian approach to parameter estimation has been developed (Bishop and Qazaz 1996) that shows promise in removing the maximum likelihood bias. However, up to now, this model has not been used for time series prediction. Here we compare these algorithms with two other models to provide benchmark results: a linear model (from the ARIMA family), and a conventional neural network trained with a sum-of-squares error function (which estimates the conditional mean of the time series with a constant variance noise model). This comparison is carried out on daily exchange rate data for five currencies.

Globally optimal on-line learning rules for multi-layer neural networks

We present a method for determining the globally optimal on-line learning rule for a soft committee machine under a statistical mechanics framework. This rule maximizes the total reduction in generalization error over the whole learning process. A simple example demonstrates that the locally optimal rule, which maximizes the rate of decrease in generalization error, may perform poorly in comparison.

Structured neural network modelling of multi-valued functions for wind retrieval from scatterometer measurements

A conventional neural network approach to regression problems approximates the conditional mean of the output vector. For mappings which are multi-valued this approach breaks down, since the average of two solutions is not necessarily a valid solution. In this article mixture density networks, a principled method to model conditional probability density functions, are applied to retrieving Cartesian wind vector components from satellite scatterometer data. A hybrid mixture density network is implemented to incorporate prior knowledge of the predominantly bimodal function branches. An advantage of a fully probabilistic model is that more sophisticated and principled methods can be used to resolve ambiguities.

First year qualifying report: neural networks for extracting wind vectors from satellite scatterometer data

The ERS-1 Satellite was launched in July 1991 by the European Space Agency into a polar orbit at about km800, carrying a C-band scatterometer. A scatterometer measures the amount of radar back scatter generated by small ripples on the ocean surface induced by instantaneous local winds. Operational methods that extract wind vectors from satellite scatterometer data are based on the local inversion of a forward model, mapping scatterometer observations to wind vectors, by the minimisation of a cost function in the scatterometer measurement space.par This report uses mixture density networks, a principled method for modelling conditional probability density functions, to model the joint probability distribution of the wind vectors given the satellite scatterometer measurements in a single cell (the `inverse' problem). The complexity of the mapping and the structure of the conditional probability density function are investigated by varying the number of units in the hidden layer of the multi-layer perceptron and the number of kernels in the Gaussian mixture model of the mixture density network respectively. The optimal model for networks trained per trace has twenty hidden units and four kernels. Further investigation shows that models trained with incidence angle as an input have results comparable to those models trained by trace. A hybrid mixture density network that incorporates geophysical knowledge of the problem confirms other results that the conditional probability distribution is dominantly bimodal.par The wind retrieval results improve on previous work at Aston, but do not match other neural network techniques that use spatial information in the inputs, which is to be expected given the ambiguity of the inverse problem. Current work uses the local inverse model for autonomous ambiguity removal in a principled Bayesian framework. Future directions in which these models may be improved are given.

Improved multi-beam neural network scatterometer forward models

Current methods for retrieving near surface winds from scatterometer observations over the ocean surface require a foward sensor model which maps the wind vector to the measured backscatter. This paper develops a hybrid neural network forward model, which retains the physical understanding embodied in ¸mod, but incorporates greater flexibility, allowing a better fit to the observations. By introducing a separate model for the mid-beam and using a common model for the fore- and aft-beams, we show a significant improvement in local wind vector retrieval. The hybrid model also fits the scatterometer observations more closely. The model is trained in a Bayesian framework, accounting for the noise on the wind vector inputs. We show that adding more high wind speed observations in the training set improves wind vector retrieval at high wind speeds without compromising performance at medium or low wind speeds.

Structured neural network modelling of multi-valued functions for wind retrieval from scatterometer measurements

A conventional neural network approach to regression problems approximates the conditional mean of the output vector. For mappings which are multi-valued this approach breaks down, since the average of two solutions is not necessarily a valid solution. In this article mixture density networks, a principled method to model conditional probability density functions, are applied to retrieving Cartesian wind vector components from satellite scatterometer data. A hybrid mixture density network is implemented to incorporate prior knowledge of the predominantly bimodal function branches. An advantage of a fully probabilistic model is that more sophisticated and principled methods can be used to resolve ambiguities.

The impact of architecture on the performance of artificial neural networks

A number of researchers have investigated the impact of network architecture on the performance of artificial neural networks. Particular attention has been paid to the impact on the performance of the multi-layer perceptron of architectural issues, and the use of various strategies to attain an optimal network structure. However, there are still perceived limitations with the multi-layer perceptron and networks that employ a different architecture to the multi-layer perceptron have gained in popularity in recent years, particularly, networks that implement a more localised solution, where the solution in one area of the problem space does not impact, or has a minimal impact, on other areas of the space. In this study, we discuss the major architectural issues affecting the performance of a multi-layer perceptron, before moving on to examine in detail the performance of a new localised network, namely the bumptree. The work presented here examines the impact on the performance of artificial neural networks of employing alternative networks to the long established multi-layer perceptron. In particular, networks that impose a solution where the impact of each parameter in the final network architecture has a localised impact on the problem space being modelled are examined. The alternatives examined are the radial basis function and bumptree neural networks, and the impact of architectural issues on the performance of these networks is examined. Particular attention is paid to the bumptree, with new techniques for both developing the bumptree structure and employing this structure to classify patterns being examined.

Probabilistic multiple model neural network based leak detection system:experimental study

This paper presents an effective decision making system for leak detection based on multiple generalized linear models and clustering techniques. The training data for the proposed decision system is obtained by setting up an experimental pipeline fully operational distribution system. The system is also equipped with data logging for three variables; namely, inlet pressure, outlet pressure, and outlet flow. The experimental setup is designed such that multi-operational conditions of the distribution system, including multi pressure and multi flow can be obtained. We then statistically tested and showed that pressure and flow variables can be used as signature of leak under the designed multi-operational conditions. It is then shown that the detection of leakages based on the training and testing of the proposed multi model decision system with pre data clustering, under multi operational conditions produces better recognition rates in comparison to the training based on the single model approach. This decision system is then equipped with the estimation of confidence limits and a method is proposed for using these confidence limits for obtaining more robust leakage recognition results.

On the k-anonymization of time-varying and multi-layer social graphs

The popularity of online social media platforms provides an unprecedented opportunity to study real-world complex networks of interactions. However, releasing this data to researchers and the public comes at the cost of potentially exposing private and sensitive user information. It has been shown that a naive anonymization of a network by removing the identity of the nodes is not sufficient to preserve users’ privacy. In order to deal with malicious attacks, k -anonymity solutions have been proposed to partially obfuscate topological information that can be used to infer nodes’ identity. In this paper, we study the problem of ensuring k anonymity in time-varying graphs, i.e., graphs with a structure that changes over time, and multi-layer graphs, i.e., graphs with multiple types of links. More specifically, we examine the case in which the attacker has access to the degree of the nodes. The goal is to generate a new graph where, given the degree of a node in each (temporal) layer of the graph, such a node remains indistinguishable from other k-1 nodes in the graph. In order to achieve this, we find the optimal partitioning of the graph nodes such that the cost of anonymizing the degree information within each group is minimum. We show that this reduces to a special case of a Generalized Assignment Problem, and we propose a simple yet effective algorithm to solve it. Finally, we introduce an iterated linear programming approach to enforce the realizability of the anonymized degree sequences. The efficacy of the method is assessed through an extensive set of experiments on synthetic and real-world graphs.

Numerical analysis of artificial neural network and volterra-based nonlinear equalizers for coherent optical OFDM

One major drawback of coherent optical orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (CO-OFDM) that hitherto remains unsolved is its vulnerability to nonlinear fiber effects due to its high peak-to-average power ratio. Several digital signal processing techniques have been investigated for the compensation of fiber nonlinearities, e.g., digital back-propagation, nonlinear pre- and post-compensation and nonlinear equalizers (NLEs) based on the inverse Volterra-series transfer function (IVSTF). Alternatively, nonlinearities can be mitigated using nonlinear decision classifiers such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) based on a multilayer perceptron. In this paper, ANN-NLE is presented for a 16QAM CO-OFDM system. The capability of the proposed approach to compensate the fiber nonlinearities is numerically demonstrated for up to 100-Gb/s and over 1000km and compared to the benchmark IVSTF-NLE. Results show that in terms of Q-factor, for 100-Gb/s at 1000km of transmission, ANN-NLE outperforms linear equalization and IVSTF-NLE by 3.2dB and 1dB, respectively.

A new unsupervised convolutional neural network model for Chinese scene text detection

As one of the most popular deep learning models, convolution neural network (CNN) has achieved huge success in image information extraction. Traditionally CNN is trained by supervised learning method with labeled data and used as a classifier by adding a classification layer in the end. Its capability of extracting image features is largely limited due to the difficulty of setting up a large training dataset. In this paper, we propose a new unsupervised learning CNN model, which uses a so-called convolutional sparse auto-encoder (CSAE) algorithm pre-Train the CNN. Instead of using labeled natural images for CNN training, the CSAE algorithm can be used to train the CNN with unlabeled artificial images, which enables easy expansion of training data and unsupervised learning. The CSAE algorithm is especially designed for extracting complex features from specific objects such as Chinese characters. After the features of articficial images are extracted by the CSAE algorithm, the learned parameters are used to initialize the first CNN convolutional layer, and then the CNN model is fine-Trained by scene image patches with a linear classifier. The new CNN model is applied to Chinese scene text detection and is evaluated with a multilingual image dataset, which labels Chinese, English and numerals texts separately. More than 10% detection precision gain is observed over two CNN models.

The time dimension of neural network models

This review attempts to provide an insightful perspective on the role of time within neural network models and the use of neural networks for problems involving time. The most commonly used neural network models are defined and explained giving mention to important technical issues but avoiding great detail. The relationship between recurrent and feedforward networks is emphasised, along with the distinctions in their practical and theoretical abilities. Some practical examples are discussed to illustrate the major issues concerning the application of neural networks to data with various types of temporal structure, and finally some highlights of current research on the more difficult types of problems are presented.