Implications of bank ownership for the credit channel of monetary policy transmission:evidence from India

Using bank-level data from India, we examine the impact of ownership on the reaction of banks to monetary policy, and also test whether the reaction of different types of banks to monetary policy changes is different in easy and tight policy regimes. Our results suggest that there are considerable differences in the reactions of different types of banks to monetary policy initiatives of the central bank, and that the bank lending channel of monetary policy is likely to be much more effective in a tight money period than in an easy money period. We also find differences in impact of monetary policy changes on less risky short-term and more risky medium-term lending. We discuss the policy implications of the findings.

UK industrial firms' dept decision under monetary policy transmission

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Monetary policy preferences of the EMU and the UK

We estimate the central bank policy preferences for the European Monetary Union and for the UK. In doing so, we extend the theoretical framework suggested by Cecchetti etal. (TheManchesterSchool, Vol. 70 (2002), pp. 596-618), by assuming that policy preferences change across different regimes. Our empirical results suggest that the weight that policy makers put on inflation is typically profound. Furthermore, it appears that volatility shifts of the economic disturbances are the main factor, which generates variation in policy preferences.

Monetary variability and monetary variables in the Franc zone

Failure to detect or account for structural changes in economic modelling can lead to misleading policy inferences, which can be perilous, especially for the more fragile economies of developing countries. Using three potential monetary policy instruments (Money Base, M0, and Reserve Money) for 13 member-states of the CFA Franc zone over the period 1989:11-2002:09, we investigate the magnitude of information extracted by employing data-driven techniques when analyzing breaks in time-series, rather than the simplifying practice of imposing policy implementation dates as break dates. The paper also tests Granger's (1980) aggregation theory and highlights some policy implications of the results.

Connectionist-based rules describing the pass-through of individual goods prices into trend inflation in the United States

This paper demonstrates a mechanism whereby rules can be extracted from a feedforward neural network trained to characterize the inflation "pass-through" problem in American monetary policy, defined as the relationship between changes in the growth rate(s) of individual commodities and the economy-wide rate of growth of consumer prices. Monthly price data are encoded and used to train a group of candidate connectionist architectures. One candidate is selected for rule extraction, using a custom decompositional extraction algorithm that generates rules in human-readable and machine-executable form. Rule and network accuracy are compared, and comments are made on the relationships expressed within the discovered rules. The types of discovered relationships could be used to guide monetary policy decisions.

A Markov switching unobserved component analysis of the CDX index term premium

Using a Markov switching unobserved component model we decompose the term premium of the North American CDX index into a permanent and a stationary component. We establish that the inversion of the CDX term premium is induced by sudden changes in the unobserved stationary component, which represents the evolution of the fundamentals underpinning the probability of default in the economy. We find evidence that the monetary policy response from the Fed during the crisis period was effective in reducing the volatility of the term premium. We also show that equity returns make a substantial contribution to the term premium over the entire sample period.

Monetary models of exchange rates and sweep programs

Numerous studies find that monetary models of exchange rates cannot beat a random walk model. Such a finding, however, is not surprising given that such models are built upon money demand functions and traditional money demand functions appear to have broken down in many developed countries. In this article, we investigate whether using a more stable underlying money demand function results in improvements in forecasts of monetary models of exchange rates. More specifically, we use a sweep-adjusted measure of US monetary aggregate M1 which has been shown to have a more stable money demand function than the official M1 measure. The results suggest that the monetary models of exchange rates contain information about future movements of exchange rates, but the success of such models depends on the stability of money demand functions and the specifications of the models.

Monetary models of exchange rates and sweep programs

Numerous studies find that monetary models of exchange rates cannot beat a random walk model. Such a finding, however, is not surprising given that such models are built upon money demand functions and traditional money demand functions appear to have broken down in many developed countries. In this paper we investigate whether using a more stable underlying money demand function results in improvements in forecasts of monetary models of exchange rates. More specifically, we use a sweepadjusted measure of US monetary aggregate M1 which has been shown to have a more stable money demand function than the official M1 measure. The results suggest that the monetary models of exchange rates contain information about future movements of exchange rates but the success of such models depends on the stability of money demand functions and the specifications of the models.

Can psychometric testing be used to explain, predict and measure behavioural competences and the funding resource orchestration of the entrepreneur?

Financing is a critical entrepreneurial activity (Shane et al. 2003) and within the study of entrepreneurship, behaviour has been identified as an area requiring further exploration (Bird et al. 2012). Since 2008 supply side conditions for SMEs have been severe and increasingly entrepreneurs have to bundle or ‘orchestrate’ funding from a variety of sources in order to successfully finance the firm (Wright and Stigliani 2013: p.15). This longitudinal study uses psychometric testing to measure the behavioural competences of a panel of sixty entrepreneurs in the Creative Industries sector. Interviews were conducted over a 3 year period to identify finance finding behaviour. The research takes a pragmatic realism perspective to examine process and the different behavioural competences of entrepreneurs. The predictive qualities of this behaviour are explored in a funding context. The research confirmed a strong behavioural characteristic as validated through interviews and psychometric testing, was an orientation towards engagement and working with other organisations. In a funding context, this manifested itself in entrepreneurs using networks, seeking advice and sharing equity to fund growth. These co-operative, collaborative characteristics are different to the classic image of the entrepreneur as a risk-taker or extrovert. Leadership and achievement orientation were amongst the lowest scores. Three distinctive groups were identified and also shown by subsequent analysis to be a positive contribution to how entrepreneurial behavioural competences can be considered. Belonging to one of these three clusters is a strong predictive indicator of entrepreneurial behaviour – in this context, how entrepreneurs access finance. These Clusters were also proven to have different characteristics in relation to funding outcomes. The study seeks to make a contribution through the development of a methodology for entrepreneurs, policy makers and financial institutions to identify competencies in finding finance and overcome problems in information asymmetry.

Standardised tobacco packaging:a health policy case study of corporate conflict expansion and adaptation

Objectives: To investigate opposition to standardised tobacco packaging in the UK. To increase understanding of how transnational corporations are adapting to changes in their access to policymakers precipitated by Article 5.3 of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). Design: Case study web-based documentary analysis, using NVivo V.10. Examination of relationships between opponents of standardised packaging and transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) and of the volume, nature, transparency and timing of their activities. Setting: UK standardised packaging policy debate 2011-2013. Participants: Organisations selected on basis of opposition to, or facilitation thereof, standardised tobacco packaging in the UK; 422 associated documents. Results: Excluding tobacco manufacturing and packaging companies (n=12), 109 organisations were involved in opposing standardised packaging, 82 (75%) of which had a financial relationship with 1 or more TTC. These 82 organisations (43 actively opposing the measure, 39 facilitating opposition) were responsible for 60% of the 404 activities identified, including the majority of public communications and research production. TTCs were directly responsible for 28% of total activities, predominantly direct lobbying, but also financially underwrote third party research, communication, mass recruitment and lobbying. Active organisations rarely reported any financial relationship with TTCs when undertaking opposition activities. Conclusions: The multifaceted opposition to standardised packaging was primarily undertaken by third parties with financial relationships with major tobacco manufacturers. Low levels of transparency regarding these links created a misleading impression of diverse and widespread opposition. Countries should strengthen implementation of Article 5.3 of the FCTC by systematically requiring conflict of interest declarations from all organisations participating in political or media debates on tobacco control.