KEMNAD:a knowledge engineering methodology for negotiating agent development

Automated negotiation is widely applied in various domains. However, the development of such systems is a complex knowledge and software engineering task. So, a methodology there will be helpful. Unfortunately, none of existing methodologies can offer sufficient, detailed support for such system development. To remove this limitation, this paper develops a new methodology made up of: (1) a generic framework (architectural pattern) for the main task, and (2) a library of modular and reusable design pattern (templates) of subtasks. Thus, it is much easier to build a negotiating agent by assembling these standardised components rather than reinventing the wheel each time. Moreover, since these patterns are identified from a wide variety of existing negotiating agents (especially high impact ones), they can also improve the quality of the final systems developed. In addition, our methodology reveals what types of domain knowledge need to be input into the negotiating agents. This in turn provides a basis for developing techniques to acquire the domain knowledge from human users. This is important because negotiation agents act faithfully on the behalf of their human users and thus the relevant domain knowledge must be acquired from the human users. Finally, our methodology is validated with one high impact system.

R.A. Armstrong

Richard Armstrong was educated at King’s College London (1968-1971) and subsequently at St. Catherine’s College Oxford (1972-1976). His early research involved the application of statistical methods to problems in botany and ecology. For the last 34 years, he has been a lecturer in Botany, Microbiology, Ecology, Neuroscience, and Optometry at the University of Aston. His current research interests include the application of quantitative methods to the study of neuropathology of neurodegenerative diseases with special reference to vision and the visual system.

A two-stage win–win multiattribute negotiation model:optimization and then concession

Many automated negotiation models have been developed to solve the conflict in many distributed computational systems. However, the problem of finding win-win outcome in multiattribute negotiation has not been tackled well. To address this issue, based on an evolutionary method of multiobjective optimization, this paper presents a negotiation model that can find win-win solutions of multiple attributes, but needs not to reveal negotiating agents' private utility functions to their opponents or a third-party mediator. Moreover, we also equip our agents with a general type of utility functions of interdependent multiattributes, which captures human intuitions well. In addition, we also develop a novel time-dependent concession strategy model, which can help both sides find a final agreement among a set of win-win ones. Finally, lots of experiments confirm that our negotiation model outperforms the existing models developed recently. And the experiments also show our model is stable and efficient in finding fair win-win outcomes, which is seldom solved in the existing models. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Online trendy topics detection in microblogs with selective user monitoring under cost constraints

As microblog services such as Twitter become a fast and convenient communication approach, identification of trendy topics in microblog services has great academic and business value. However detecting trendy topics is very challenging due to huge number of users and short-text posts in microblog diffusion networks. In this paper we introduce a trendy topics detection system under computation and communication resource constraints. In stark contrast to retrieving and processing the whole microblog contents, we develop an idea of selecting a small set of microblog users and processing their posts to achieve an overall acceptable trendy topic coverage, without exceeding resource budget for detection. We formulate the selection operation of these subset users as mixed-integer optimization problems, and develop heuristic algorithms to compute their approximate solutions. The proposed system is evaluated with real-time test data retrieved from Sina Weibo, the dominant microblog service provider in China. It's shown that by monitoring 500 out of 1.6 million microblog users and tracking their microposts (about 15,000 daily) with our system, nearly 65% trendy topics can be detected, while on average 5 hours earlier before they appear in Sina Weibo official trends.

A Markov switching unobserved component analysis of the CDX index term premium

Using a Markov switching unobserved component model we decompose the term premium of the North American CDX index into a permanent and a stationary component. We establish that the inversion of the CDX term premium is induced by sudden changes in the unobserved stationary component, which represents the evolution of the fundamentals underpinning the probability of default in the economy. We find evidence that the monetary policy response from the Fed during the crisis period was effective in reducing the volatility of the term premium. We also show that equity returns make a substantial contribution to the term premium over the entire sample period.