An application of decision process modelling to manufacturing system design

As levels of investment in advanced manufacturing systems increase, effective project management becomes ever more critical. This paper demonstrates how the model proposed by Mintzberg, Raisinghani and Theoret in 1976, which structures complicated strategic decision processes, can be applied to the design of new production systems for both descriptive and analytical research purposes. This paper sets a detailed case study concerning the design and development of an advanced manufacturing system within the Mintzberg decision model and so breaks down the decision sequence into constituent parts. It thus shows how a structured model can provide a framework for the researcher who wishes to study decision episodes in the design of manufacturing facilities in greater depth.

Strategic positioning:an integrated decision process for manufacturers

Purpose – This paper describes research that has sought to create a formal and rational process that guides manufacturers through the strategic positioning decision. Design/methodology/approach – The methodology is based on a series of case studies to develop and test the decision process. Findings – A decision process that leads the practitioner through an analytical process to decide which manufacturing activities they should carryout themselves. Practical implications – Strategic positioning is concerned with choosing those production related activities that an organisations should carry out internally, and those that should be external and under the ownership and control of suppliers, partners, distributors and customers. Originality/value – This concept extends traditional decision paradigms, such as those associated with “make versus buy” and “outsourcing”, by looking at the interactions between manufacturing operations and the wider supply chain networks associated with the organisation.

Decision support system for risk management:a case study

This study demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through analytic hierarchy process and decision tree analysis. All the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability and severity, and various alternative responses are generated with cost implication for mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are then derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis aids the decision process in managing risks. The entire methodology is explained through a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in project management is demonstrated.

A longitudinal study of Chinese managerial behaviour:an inside view of decision-making under the economic reform

This research compared decision making processes in six Chinese state-owned enterprises during the period 1985 to 1988. The research objectives were: a) To examine changes in the managerial behaviour over a period of 1985 to 1988 with a focus on decision-making; b) Through this examination, to throw light on the means by which government policies on economic reform were implemented at the enterprise level; c) To illustrate problems encountered in the decentralization programme which was a major part of China's economic reform. The research was conducted by means of intensive interviews with more than eighty managers and a survey of documents relating to specific decisions. A total of sixty cases of decision-making were selected from five decision topics: purchasing of inputs, pricing of outputs, recruitment of labour, organizational change and innovation, which occurred in 1985 (or before) and in 1988/89. Data from the interviews were used to investigate environmental conditions, relations between the enterprise and its higher authority, interactions between management and the party system, the role of information, and effectiveness of regulations and government policies on enterprise management. The analysis of the data indicates that the decision processes in the different enterprises have some similarities in regard to actor involvement, the flow of decision activities, interactions with the authorities, information usage and the effect of regulations. Comparison of the same or similar decision contents over time indicates that the achievement of decentralization varied according to the topic of decision. Managerial authority was delegated to enterprises when the authorities relaxed their control over resource allocation. When acquisition of necessary resources is dependent upon the planning system or the decision matter is sensitive, because it involves change to the institutional framework (e.g. the Party), then a high degree of centralization was retained, resulting in a marginal change in managerial behaviour. The economic reform failed to increase decision efficiency and effectiveness of decision-making. The prevailing institutional frameworks were regarded as negative to the change. The research argues that the decision process is likely to be more contingent on the decision content than the organization. Three types of decision process have been conceptualized, each of them related to a certain type of decision content. This argument gives attention to the perspectives of institution and power in a way which facilitates an elaboration of organizational analysis. The problems encountered in the reform of China's industrial enterprises are identified and discussed. General recommendations for policies of further reform are offered, based on the analysis of decision process and managerial behaviour.

An integrated process for forming manufacturing technology acquisition decisions

The right manufacturing technology at the right time can enable an organisation to produce products that are cheaper, better, and made faster than those of the competition. Paradoxically, the wrong technology, or even the right technology poorly implemented, can be disastrous. The decision process through which practitioners acquire manufacturing technologies can significantly impact on their eventual capabilities and performance. This complete process has unfortunately received limited attention in previous studies. Therefore, the work presented in this paper has investigated leading research and industrial practices to create a formal and rational decision process, and then evaluated this through an extended and in-depth case study of a manufacturing technology acquisition. An analysis of previous literature, industrial practices, and the resulting decision process are all presented in this paper.

A review of multi-factor capacity expansion models for manufacturing plants:searching for a holistic decision aid

Investment in capacity expansion remains one of the most critical decisions for a manufacturing organisation with global production facilities. Multiple factors need to be considered making the decision process very complex. The purpose of this paper is to establish the state-of-the-art in multi-factor models for capacity expansion of manufacturing plants within a corporation. The research programme consisting of an extensive literature review and a structured assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the current research is presented. The study found that there is a wealth of mathematical multi-factor models for evaluating capacity expansion decisions however no single contribution captures all the different facets of the problem.

Distributed control of computer communication systems

Flow control in Computer Communication systems is generally a multi-layered structure, consisting of several mechanisms operating independently at different levels. Evaluation of the performance of networks in which different flow control mechanisms act simultaneously is an important area of research, and is examined in depth in this thesis. This thesis presents the modelling of a finite resource computer communication network equipped with three levels of flow control, based on closed queueing network theory. The flow control mechanisms considered are: end-to-end control of virtual circuits, network access control of external messages at the entry nodes and the hop level control between nodes. The model is solved by a heuristic technique, based on an equivalent reduced network and the heuristic extensions to the mean value analysis algorithm. The method has significant computational advantages, and overcomes the limitations of the exact methods. It can be used to solve large network models with finite buffers and many virtual circuits. The model and its heuristic solution are validated by simulation. The interaction between the three levels of flow control are investigated. A queueing model is developed for the admission delay on virtual circuits with end-to-end control, in which messages arrive from independent Poisson sources. The selection of optimum window limit is considered. Several advanced network access schemes are postulated to improve the network performance as well as that of selected traffic streams, and numerical results are presented. A model for the dynamic control of input traffic is developed. Based on Markov decision theory, an optimal control policy is formulated. Numerical results are given and throughput-delay performance is shown to be better with dynamic control than with static control.

Strategic positioning of manufacturing operations within global supply chains

In global environment, a company has to make many decisions that impact upon its position in global supply chain networks such as outsourcing, offshoring, joint venture, vertical/horizontal integration, etc. All these decisions impact on the company’s strategic position, and hence on competitive space and performance. Therefore, it is important for a company to carefully manage strategic positioning by making careful decisions about the adoption of alternative manufacturing and supply chain activities. Unfortunately, there is no complete process studied in strategic positioning of manufacturing operations within global supply chain. Therefore, the work presented in this paper has investigated leading research and industrial practices to create a formal and rational decision process. An analysis of previous literature, industrial practices, and the resulting decision process are all presented in this paper.

Integrated strategic supply chain positioning for SME's:an empirical study

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to report on an investigation into the selection and evaluation of a suitable strategic positioning methodology for SMEs in Singapore. Design/methodology/approach – The research methodology is based on critical review of the literature to identify the potentially most suitable strategic positioning methodology, evaluation and testing of the methodology within the context of SME's in Singapore, and analysis to determine the strengths and weaknesses of the methodology and opportunities for further research. Findings – This paper illustrates a leading integrated strategic positioning decision making process, which has been found to be potentially suitable for SMEs in Singapore, and the process is then applied and evaluated in two industrial case studies. Results in the form of strengths, weaknesses and opportunities are evaluated and discussed in detail, and further research to improve the process has been identified. Practical implications – A practical and integrated strategic supply chain positioning methodology for SMEs to define their own competitive space, among other companies in the manufacturing supply chain, so as to maximize business competitiveness. Originality/value – This paper contributes to the knowledge of the strategic positioning decision process as well as identifies further research to adapt the process for SMEs in Singapore.

The right time and place:strategic positioning for competitive manufacture

Increasingly in the UK, companies that have traditionally considered themselves as manufacturers are being advised to now see themselves as service providers and to reconsider whether to have any production capability. A key challenge is to translate this strategy into a selection of product and service-centred activities within the company's supply chain networks. Strategic positioning is concerned with the choice of business activities a company carries out itself, compared to those provided by suppliers, partners, distributors and even customers. In practice, strategic positioning is directly impacted by such decisions as outsourcing, off-shoring, partnering, technology innovation, acquisition and exploitation. If companies can better understand their strategic positioning, they can make more informed decisions about the adoption of alternative manufacturing and supply chain activities. Similarly, they are more likely to reject those that, like off-shoring, are currently en vogue but are highly likely to erode competitive edge and business success. Our research has developed a new concept we call 'competitive space' as a means of appreciating the strategic positioning of companies, along with a structured decision process for managing competitive space. Our ideas about competitive space, along with the decision process itself, have been developed and tested on a range of manufacturers. As more and more manufacturers are encouraged to move towards system integration and a serviceable business model, the challenge is to identify the appropriate strategic position for their organisations, or in other words, to identify their optimum competitive space for manufacture.

Optimising market share and profit margin:SMDP-based tariff pricing under the smart grid paradigm

Smart grid technologies have given rise to a liberalised and decentralised electricity market, enabling energy providers and retailers to have a better understanding of the demand side and its response to pricing signals. This paper puts forward a reinforcement-learning-powered tool aiding an electricity retailer to define the tariff prices it offers, in a bid to optimise its retail strategy. In a competitive market, an energy retailer aims to simultaneously increase the number of contracted customers and its profit margin. We have abstracted the problem of deciding on a tariff price as faced by a retailer, as a semi-Markov decision problem (SMDP). A hierarchical reinforcement learning approach, MaxQ value function decomposition, is applied to solve the SMDP through interactions with the market. To evaluate our trading strategy, we developed a retailer agent (termed AstonTAC) that uses the proposed SMDP framework to act in an open multi-agent simulation environment, the Power Trading Agent Competition (Power TAC). An evaluation and analysis of the 2013 Power TAC finals show that AstonTAC successfully selects sell prices that attract as many customers as necessary to maximise the profit margin. Moreover, during the competition, AstonTAC was the only retailer agent performing well across all retail market settings.

An intelligent broker agent for energy trading:an MDP approach

This paper details the development and evaluation of AstonTAC, an energy broker that successfully participated in the 2012 Power Trading Agent Competition (Power TAC). AstonTAC buys electrical energy from the wholesale market and sells it in the retail market. The main focus of the paper is on the broker’s bidding strategy in the wholesale market. In particular, it employs Markov Decision Processes (MDP) to purchase energy at low prices in a day-ahead power wholesale market, and keeps energy supply and demand balanced. Moreover, we explain how the agent uses Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHHMM) to forecast energy demand and price. An evaluation and analysis of the 2012 Power TAC finals show that AstonTAC is the only agent that can buy energy at low price in the wholesale market and keep energy imbalance low.

A template for externalisation-internalisation decisions in virtual enterprises

Recognising the importance of alliance decision making in a virtual enterprise (VE), this paper proposes an analysis template to facilitate this process. The existing transaction-cost and resource-based theories in the literature are first reviewed, showing some deficiencies in both type of theories, and the potential of the resource based explanations. The paper then goes on to propose a resource-based analysis template, integrating both the motives of using certain business forms and the factors why different forms help achieve different objectives, Resource-combination effectiveness, management complexity and flexibility are identified as the three factors providing fundamental explanations of an organization's alliance making decision process. The template provides a comprehensive and generic approach for analysing alliance decisions.

Specification and quantitative analysis of probabilistic cloud deployment patterns

Cloud computing is a new technological paradigm offering computing infrastructure, software and platforms as a pay-as-you-go, subscription-based service. Many potential customers of cloud services require essential cost assessments to be undertaken before transitioning to the cloud. Current assessment techniques are imprecise as they rely on simplified specifications of resource requirements that fail to account for probabilistic variations in usage. In this paper, we address these problems and propose a new probabilistic pattern modelling (PPM) approach to cloud costing and resource usage verification. Our approach is based on a concise expression of probabilistic resource usage patterns translated to Markov decision processes (MDPs). Key costing and usage queries are identified and expressed in a probabilistic variant of temporal logic and calculated to a high degree of precision using quantitative verification techniques. The PPM cost assessment approach has been implemented as a Java library and validated with a case study and scalability experiments. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Project risk management:a combined analytic hierarchy process and decision tree approach

Time, cost and quality achievements on large-scale construction projects are uncertain because of technological constraints, involvement of many stakeholders, long durations, large capital requirements and improper scope definitions. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can effectively be managed with the application of risk management throughout the project life cycle. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively poses the danger of non-achievement of project goals. Moreover, risk analysis of the overall project also poses the danger of developing inappropriate responses. This article demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and decision tree analysis. The entire project is classified to form a few work packages. With the involvement of project stakeholders, risky work packages are identified. As all the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability (using AHP) and severity (guess estimate). Various alternative responses are generated, listing the cost implications of mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis helps to make the right decision in managing risks. In this article, the entire methodology is explained by using a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India. The case study demonstrates the project management effectiveness of using AHP and DTA.