An econometric analysis of international tourism demand in Hong Kong : a cointegration and error correction approach

The purpose of this study is to develop econometric models to better understand the economic factors affecting inbound tourist flows from each of six origin countries that contribute to Hong Kong’s international tourism demand. To this end, we test alternative cointegration and error correction approaches to examine the economic determinants of tourist flows to Hong Kong, and to produce accurate econometric forecasts of inbound tourism demand. Our empirical findings show that permanent income is the most significant determinant of tourism demand in all models. The variables of own price, weighted substitute prices, trade volume, the share price index (as an indicator of changes in wealth in origin countries), and a dummy variable representing the Beijing incident (1989) are also found to be important determinants for some origin countries. The average long-run income and own price elasticity was measured at 2.66 and – 1.02, respectively. It was hypothesised that permanent income is a better explanatory variable of long-haul tourism demand than current income. A novel approach (grid search process) has been used to empirically derive the weights to be attached to the lagged income variable for estimating permanent income. The results indicate that permanent income, estimated with empirically determined relatively small weighting factors, was capable of producing better results than the current income variable in explaining long-haul tourism demand. This finding suggests that the use of current income in previous empirical tourism demand studies may have produced inaccurate results. The share price index, as a measure of wealth, was also found to be significant in two models. Studies of tourism demand rarely include wealth as an explanatory forecasting long-haul tourism demand. However, finding a satisfactory proxy for wealth common to different countries is problematic. This study indicates with the ECM (Error Correction Models) based on the Engle-Granger (1987) approach produce more accurate forecasts than ECM based on Pesaran and Shin (1998) and Johansen (1988, 1991, 1995) approaches for all of the long-haul markets and Japan. Overall, ECM produce better forecasts than the OLS, ARIMA and NAÏVE models, indicating the superiority of the application of a cointegration approach for tourism demand forecasting. The results show that permanent income is the most important explanatory variable for tourism demand from all countries but there are substantial variations between countries with the long-run elasticity ranging between 1.1 for the U.S. and 5.3 for U.K. Price is the next most important variable with the long-run elasticities ranging between -0.8 for Japan and -1.3 for Germany and short-run elasticities ranging between – 0.14 for Germany and -0.7 for Taiwan. The fastest growing market is Mainland China. The findings have implications for policies and strategies on investment, marketing promotion and pricing.

Effects of pharmaceutical marketing:a re-analysis of the study of Windmeijer et al

Despite a growing body of scientific research, there is still much uncertainty about the effects of marketing expenditures on the demand for pharmaceuticals. Recently it was found that higher marketing expenditures for a brand may reduce the price elasticity of demand, and hence allow firms to charge higher prices (Windmeijer et al [1]). In this study we reconsider the study by Windmeijer et al. We find that their econometric models are based on an incorrect assumption of homogeneous parameters across brands. As a consequence, our conclusions concerning the effects of pharmaceutical marketing are different from theirs.

The impact of procurement-driven technological change on U.S. manufacturing productivity growth

As we enter the 21st Century, technologies originally developed for defense purposes such as computers and satellite communications appear to have become a driving force behind economic growth in the United States. Paradoxically, almost all previous econometric models suggest that the largely defense-oriented federal industrial R&D funding that helped create these technologies had no discernible effect on U.S. industrial productivity growth. This paper addresses this paradox by stressing that defense procurement as well as federal R&D expenditures were targeted to a few narrowly defined manufacturing sub-sectors that produced high tech weaponry. Analysis employing data from the NBER Manufacturing Productivity Database and the BEA' s Input Output tables then demonstrates that defense procurement policies did have significant effects on the productivity performance of disaggregated manufacturing industries because of a process of procurement-driven technological change.

Information systems, inter-functional collaboration and innovation in Taiwanese high-tech manufacturing firms

This article investigates whether (1) cross-functional integration within a firm and the use of information systems (IS) that support information sharing with external parties can enhance integration across the supply chain and wider networks and (2) whether collaboration with customers, suppliers and other external parties leads to increased supply chain performance in terms of new product development and introduction of new processes. Data from a high-quality survey carried out in Taiwan in 2009 were used, and appropriate econometric models were applied. Results show that the adoption of IS that enhance information sharing is vital not only for the effective communication with suppliers and with wider network members, but their adoption also has a direct effect across a firm's innovative effort. Cross-functional integration appears to matter only for the introduction of an innovative process. Collaboration with customers and suppliers affected a product's design and its overall features and functionality, respectively. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Degree of vertical integration and its buffering effects on political uncertainty

The focus of this study is on the governance decisions in a concurrent channels context, in the case of uncertainty. The study examines how a firm chooses to deploy its sales force in times of uncertainty, and the subsequent performance outcome of those deployment choices. The theoretical framework is based on multiple theories of governance, including transaction cost analysis (TCA), agency theory, and institutional economics. Three uncertainty variables are investigated in this study. The first two are demand and competitive uncertainty which are considered to be industry-level market uncertainty forms. The third uncertainty, political uncertainty, is chosen as it is an important dimension of institutional environments, capturing non-economic circumstances such as regulations and political systemic issues. The study employs longitudinal secondary data from a Thai hotel chain, comprising monthly observations from January 2007 – December 2012. This hotel chain has its operations in 4 countries, Thailand, the Philippines, United Arab Emirates – Dubai, and Egypt, all of which experienced substantial demand, competitive, and political uncertainty during the study period. This makes them ideal contexts for this study. Two econometric models, both deploying Newey-West estimations, are employed to test 13 hypotheses. The first model considers the relationship between uncertainty and governance. The second model is a version of Newey-West, using an Instrumental Variables (IV) estimator and a Two-Stage Least Squares model (2SLS), to test the direct effect of uncertainty on performance and the moderating effect of governance on the relationship between uncertainty and performance. The observed relationship between uncertainty and governance observed follows a core prediction of TCA; that vertical integration is the preferred choice of governance when uncertainty rises. As for the subsequent performance outcomes, the results corroborate that uncertainty has a negative effect on performance. Importantly, the findings show that becoming more vertically integrated cannot help moderate the effect of demand and competitive uncertainty, but can significantly moderate the effect of political uncertainty. These findings have significant theoretical and practical implications, and extend our knowledge of the impact on uncertainty significantly, as well as bringing an institutional perspective to TCA. Further, they offer managers novel insight into the nature of different types of uncertainty, their impact on performance, and how channel decisions can mitigate these impacts.

Brady et al.'s (2005) service evaluation models: A replication and extension in China

The research described in this study replicates and extends the Brady et al., [Brady, M. K., Knight, G. A., Cronin Jr. J. Toma, G., Hult, M. and Keillor, B. D. (2005), emoving the Contextual Lens: A Multinational, Mult-setting Comparison of Service Evaluation Models, Journal of Retailing, 81(3), pp. 215-230] study suggestion that future research in service evaluations should focus on emerging service economies such as China. The intent of the research was to examine the suitability of the models suggested by Brady and colleagues in the Chinese market. The replication somewhat successfully duplicated their finding as to the superiority of the comprehensive service evaluation model. Additionally, we also sought to examine as to whether the service evaluation model is gender invariant. Our findings indicate that there are significant differences between gender. These findings are discussed relative to the limitations associated with the study.

The feasibility of neuroimaging methods in marketing research

On July 17, 1990, President George Bush ssued “Proclamation #6158" which boldly declared the following ten years would be called the “Decade of the Brain” (Bush, 1990). Accordingly, the research mandates of all US federal biomedical institutions worldwide were redirected towards the study of the brain in general and cognitive neuroscience specifically. In 2008, one of the greatest legacies of this “Decade of the Brain” is the impressive array of techniques that can be used to study cortical activity. We now stand at a juncture where cognitive function can be mapped in the time, space and frequency domains, as and when such activity occurs. These advanced techniques have led to discoveries in many fields of research and clinical science, including psychology and psychiatry. Unfortunately, neuroscientific techniques have yet to be enthusiastically adopted by the social sciences. Market researchers, as specialized social scientists, have an unparalleled opportunity to adopt cognitive neuroscientific techniques and significantly redefine the field and possibly even cause substantial dislocations in business models. Following from this is a significant opportunity for more commercially-oriented researchers to employ such techniques in their own offerings. This report examines the feasibility of these techniques.

Management processes in marketing planning

There has been concern in the literature about the adequacy of the traditional model of marketing planning, which focuses on what decisions should be made and not on how to make them. The aim of this article is a new conceptualisation that proposes key management processes about how marketing planning decisions are made in a dynamic context. The motives for this conceptualisation are to contribute to understanding by advancing the traditional model of marketing planning, to stimulate academic and practitioner debate about how marketing planning decisions are made, and to initiate new directions in marketing planning research. Two new competing models of marketing planning are developed, which address key management processes about how marketing planning decisions are made in a dynamic context, and research directions are proposed.

Life with sheepdogs:alternative metaphorical models of the doctoral research process revisited

The doctoral research process is the entry path for the academic profession. Traditionally it is explained by reference to another professional entry path, the industrial apprenticeship. Revisiting a paper and discussion originally held at the Marketing Education Group conference in 1991, we explore the implications and limitations of this metaphorical model, suggest alternatives and consider the interaction between student characteristics and supervisory approach. Through this process we offer marketing academics a vast range of unflattering metaphors to employ in describing themselves, their students, their supervisors and their colleagues.

Differences in market-oriented behaviour levels across firms' domestic and export marketing operations:a study of antecedents and consequences

Researchers are beginning to recognise that organisations often have different levels of market orientation across different aspects of their operations. Focusing on firms involved in export marketing, this study examines how market-oriented behaviour differs across firms' domestic and export marketing operations. In this respect, the study is the first of its kind since it investigates three main issues: (1) to what extent do differences exist in firms' levels of market-oriented behaviour in their domestic markets (i.e., their domestic market-oriented behaviour) and in their export markets (i.e., their export market-oriented behaviour), (2) what are the key drivers of such differences, and (3) what are the performance implications for firms of having different levels of domestic and export market-oriented behaviour. To shed light on these research questions, data were collected from 225 British exporting firms using a mail questionnaire. Structural equation modelling techniques were used to develop and purify measures of all construct of interest, and to test the theoretical models developed. The results indicate that many of businesses sampled have very different levels of market orientation in their domestic and exporting operations: typically, firms tend to be more market-oriented in their domestic markets relative to their export markets. Several key factors were identified as drivers of differences in market orientation levels across firms' domestic and export markets. In particular, it was found that differences were more pronounced when: (i) interfunctional interactions between domestic marketing and export marketing are rare, (ii) when domestic and export marketing follow asymmetric business strategies, (iii) when mutual dependence between the functions is low, (iv) when one or other of the functions dominates the firm's sales, and (v) when there are pronounced differences in the degree to which the domestic and the export markets are experiencing environmental turbulence. The consequences of differences in market-oriented behaviour across firms' domestic and export markets were also studied. The results indicate that overall sales performance of firms (as determined by the composite of firms' domestic sales and export sales performance) is positively related to levels of domestic market-oriented behaviour under high levels of environmental turbulence in firms' domestic markets. However, as domestic market turbulence decreases, so to does the strength of this positive relationship. On the other hand, export market-oriented behaviour provides a positive contribution to firms' overall sales success under conditions of relatively low export market turbulence. As the turbulence in export markets increases, this positive relationship becomes weaker. These findings indicate that there are numerous situations in which it is sub-optimal for firms to have identical levels of market-oriented behaviour in their domestic and exporting operations. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.

Marketing in indigenous and Asian small firms in the West Midlands.

This study is concerned with examining the application of marketing during the start-up, development and growth of small firms in the West Midlands. As an exploratory study, it provides evidence to support the central hypothesis of the thesis that whilst many small firms have the potential to progress through to the successful growth stage of development, they fail to do so because of their owner-managers' orientation towards production and selling and because they do not apply formal marketing during the initial stages of business development. A comparative approach to studying marketing in indigenous and Asian firms is adopted in an attempt to fill a gap in the literature on the characteristics and differences in the formation and development processes of these two groups of enterprises. The study has three main objectives and is based on qualitative research techniques of in-depth interviews, case studies and longitudinal studies among sixty-six firms representing the key activities of the small firms sector of the local economy. Firstly, it investigates owner-managers' orientation in developing and managing new and established businesses and explores the sources of, and changes in their orientation during the various stages of development. Secondly, it assesses the owner-manager's awareness and understanding of what constitutes the marketing function and investigates what aspects of marketing are applied during the different stages of business development. Finally, the study monitors and evaluates the outcomes and implications of applying formal marketing techniques in a small sample of firms over a period of two years. The thesis concludes by using the findings of the study to contribute additions to existing models of growth and by proposing new models of evolution and application of marketing in small firms.

An investigation of the retail marketing mix and its effectiveness in small shops

The recent history of small shop and independent retailing has been one of decline. The most desirable form of assistance is the provision of information which will increase the efficiency model of marketing mix effeciveness which may be applied in small scale retailing. A further aim is to enhance theoretical development in the marketing field. Recent changes in retailing have affected location, product range, pricing and promotion practices. Although a large number of variables representing aspects of the marketing mix may be identified, it is not possible, on the basis of currently available information, to quantify or rank them according to their effect on sales performance. In designing a suitable study a major issue is that of access to a suitable representative sample of small retailers. The publish nature of the retail activities involved facilitates the use of a novel observation approach to data collection. A cross-sectional survey research design was used focussing on a clustered random sample of greengrocers and gent's fashion outfitters in the West Midlands. Linear multiple regression was the main analytical technique. Powerful regression models were evolved for both types of retailing. For greengrocers the major influences on trade are pedestrian traffic and shelf display space. For gent's outfitters they are centrality-to-other shopping, advertising and shelf display space. The models may be utilised by retailers to determine the relative strength of marketing mix variables. The level of precision is not sufficient to permit cost benefit analysis. Comparison of the findings for the two distinct kinds of business studied suggests an overall model of marketing mix effectiveness might be based on frequency of purchase, homogeneity of the shopping environment, elasticity of demand and bulk characteristics of the good sold by a shop.

A comparison of sales response predictions from demand models applied to store-level versus panel data

In order to generate sales promotion response predictions, marketing analysts estimate demand models using either disaggregated (consumer-level) or aggregated (store-level) scanner data. Comparison of predictions from these demand models is complicated by the fact that models may accommodate different forms of consumer heterogeneity depending on the level of data aggregation. This study shows via simulation that demand models with various heterogeneity specifications do not produce more accurate sales response predictions than a homogeneous demand model applied to store-level data, with one major exception: a random coefficients model designed to capture within-store heterogeneity using store-level data produced significantly more accurate sales response predictions (as well as better fit) compared to other model specifications. An empirical application to the paper towel product category adds additional insights. This article has supplementary material online.