Task classification and decision processes in monitoring behaviour

Task classification is introduced as a method for the evaluation of monitoring behaviour in different task situations. On the basis of an analysis of different monitoring tasks, a task classification system comprising four task 'dimensions' is proposed. The perceptual speed and flexibility of closure categories, which are identified with signal discrimination type, comprise the principal dimension in this taxonomy, the others being sense modality, the time course of events, and source complexity. It is also proposed that decision theory provides the most complete method for the analysis of performance in monitoring tasks. Several different aspects of decision theory in relation to monitoring behaviour are described. A method is also outlined whereby both accuracy and latency measures of performance may be analysed within the same decision theory framework. Eight experiments and an organizational study are reported. The results show that a distinction can be made between the perceptual efficiency (sensitivity) of a monitor and his criterial level of response, and that in most monitoring situations, there is no decrement in efficiency over the work period, but an increase in the strictness of the response criterion. The range of tasks exhibiting either or both of these performance trends can be specified within the task classification system. In particular, it is shown that a sensitivity decrement is only obtained for 'speed' tasks with a high stimulation rate. A distinctive feature of 'speed' tasks is that target detection requires the discrimination of a change in a stimulus relative to preceding stimuli, whereas in 'closure' tasks, the information required for the discrimination of targets is presented at the same point In time. In the final study, the specification of tasks yielding sensitivity decrements is shown to be consistent with a task classification analysis of the monitoring literature. It is also demonstrated that the signal type dimension has a major influence on the consistency of individual differences in performance in different tasks. The results provide an empirical validation for the 'speed' and 'closure' categories, and suggest that individual differences are not completely task specific but are dependent on the demands common to different tasks. Task classification is therefore shovn to enable improved generalizations to be made of the factors affecting 1) performance trends over time, and 2) the consistencv of performance in different tasks. A decision theory analysis of response latencies is shown to support the view that criterion shifts are obtained in some tasks, while sensitivity shifts are obtained in others. The results of a psychophysiological study also suggest that evoked potential latency measures may provide temporal correlates of criterion shifts in monitoring tasks. Among other results, the finding that the latencies of negative responses do not increase over time is taken to invalidate arousal-based theories of performance trends over a work period. An interpretation in terms of expectancy, however, provides a more reliable explanation of criterion shifts. Although the mechanisms underlying the sensitivity decrement are not completely clear, the results rule out 'unitary' theories such as observing response and coupling theory. It is suggested that an interpretation in terms of the memory data limitations on information processing provides the most parsimonious explanation of all the results in the literature relating to sensitivity decrement. Task classification therefore enables the refinement and selection of theories of monitoring behaviour in terms of their reliability in generalizing predictions to a wide range of tasks. It is thus concluded that task classification and decision theory provide a reliable basis for the assessment and analysis of monitoring behaviour in different task situations.

An intelligent broker agent for energy trading:an MDP approach

This paper details the development and evaluation of AstonTAC, an energy broker that successfully participated in the 2012 Power Trading Agent Competition (Power TAC). AstonTAC buys electrical energy from the wholesale market and sells it in the retail market. The main focus of the paper is on the broker’s bidding strategy in the wholesale market. In particular, it employs Markov Decision Processes (MDP) to purchase energy at low prices in a day-ahead power wholesale market, and keeps energy supply and demand balanced. Moreover, we explain how the agent uses Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHHMM) to forecast energy demand and price. An evaluation and analysis of the 2012 Power TAC finals show that AstonTAC is the only agent that can buy energy at low price in the wholesale market and keep energy imbalance low.

Specification and quantitative analysis of probabilistic cloud deployment patterns

Cloud computing is a new technological paradigm offering computing infrastructure, software and platforms as a pay-as-you-go, subscription-based service. Many potential customers of cloud services require essential cost assessments to be undertaken before transitioning to the cloud. Current assessment techniques are imprecise as they rely on simplified specifications of resource requirements that fail to account for probabilistic variations in usage. In this paper, we address these problems and propose a new probabilistic pattern modelling (PPM) approach to cloud costing and resource usage verification. Our approach is based on a concise expression of probabilistic resource usage patterns translated to Markov decision processes (MDPs). Key costing and usage queries are identified and expressed in a probabilistic variant of temporal logic and calculated to a high degree of precision using quantitative verification techniques. The PPM cost assessment approach has been implemented as a Java library and validated with a case study and scalability experiments. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

An application of decision process modelling to manufacturing system design

As levels of investment in advanced manufacturing systems increase, effective project management becomes ever more critical. This paper demonstrates how the model proposed by Mintzberg, Raisinghani and Theoret in 1976, which structures complicated strategic decision processes, can be applied to the design of new production systems for both descriptive and analytical research purposes. This paper sets a detailed case study concerning the design and development of an advanced manufacturing system within the Mintzberg decision model and so breaks down the decision sequence into constituent parts. It thus shows how a structured model can provide a framework for the researcher who wishes to study decision episodes in the design of manufacturing facilities in greater depth.

A longitudinal study of Chinese managerial behaviour:an inside view of decision-making under the economic reform

This research compared decision making processes in six Chinese state-owned enterprises during the period 1985 to 1988. The research objectives were: a) To examine changes in the managerial behaviour over a period of 1985 to 1988 with a focus on decision-making; b) Through this examination, to throw light on the means by which government policies on economic reform were implemented at the enterprise level; c) To illustrate problems encountered in the decentralization programme which was a major part of China's economic reform. The research was conducted by means of intensive interviews with more than eighty managers and a survey of documents relating to specific decisions. A total of sixty cases of decision-making were selected from five decision topics: purchasing of inputs, pricing of outputs, recruitment of labour, organizational change and innovation, which occurred in 1985 (or before) and in 1988/89. Data from the interviews were used to investigate environmental conditions, relations between the enterprise and its higher authority, interactions between management and the party system, the role of information, and effectiveness of regulations and government policies on enterprise management. The analysis of the data indicates that the decision processes in the different enterprises have some similarities in regard to actor involvement, the flow of decision activities, interactions with the authorities, information usage and the effect of regulations. Comparison of the same or similar decision contents over time indicates that the achievement of decentralization varied according to the topic of decision. Managerial authority was delegated to enterprises when the authorities relaxed their control over resource allocation. When acquisition of necessary resources is dependent upon the planning system or the decision matter is sensitive, because it involves change to the institutional framework (e.g. the Party), then a high degree of centralization was retained, resulting in a marginal change in managerial behaviour. The economic reform failed to increase decision efficiency and effectiveness of decision-making. The prevailing institutional frameworks were regarded as negative to the change. The research argues that the decision process is likely to be more contingent on the decision content than the organization. Three types of decision process have been conceptualized, each of them related to a certain type of decision content. This argument gives attention to the perspectives of institution and power in a way which facilitates an elaboration of organizational analysis. The problems encountered in the reform of China's industrial enterprises are identified and discussed. General recommendations for policies of further reform are offered, based on the analysis of decision process and managerial behaviour.

Investigative framework for research into the design of manufacturing processes

This paper is based a major research project run by a team from the Innovation, Design and Operations Management Research Unit at the Aston Business School under SERC funding. International Computers Limited (!CL), the UK's largest indigenous manufacturer of mainframe computer products, was the main industrial collaborator in the research. During the period 1985-89 an integrated production system termed the "Modular Assembly Cascade'' was introduced to the Company's mainframe assembly plant at Ashton-under-Lyne near Manchester. Using a methodology primarily based upon 'participative observation', the researchers developed a model for analysing this manufacturing system design called "DRAMA". Following a critique of the existing literature on Manufacturing Strategy, this paper will describe the basic DRAMA model and its development from an industry specific design methodology to DRAMA II, a generic model for studying organizational decision processes in the design and implementation of production systems. From this, the potential contribution of the DRAMA model to the existing knowledge on the process of manufacturing system design will be apparent.

Classifying clinical decision making:interpreting nursing intuition, heuristics and medical diagnosis

This is the second of two linked papers exploring decision making in nursing. The first paper, 'Classifying clinical decision making: a unifying approach' investigated difficulties with applying a range of decision-making theories to nursing practice. This is due to the diversity of terminology and theoretical concepts used, which militate against nurses being able to compare the outcomes of decisions analysed within different frameworks. It is therefore problematic for nurses to assess how good their decisions are, and where improvements can be made. However, despite the range of nomenclature, it was argued that there are underlying similarities between all theories of decision processes and that these should be exposed through integration within a single explanatory framework. A proposed solution was to use a general model of psychological classification to clarify and compare terms, concepts and processes identified across the different theories. The unifying framework of classification was described and this paper operationalizes it to demonstrate how different approaches to clinical decision making can be re-interpreted as classification behaviour. Particular attention is focused on classification in nursing, and on re-evaluating heuristic reasoning, which has been particularly prone to theoretical and terminological confusion. Demonstrating similarities in how different disciplines make decisions should promote improved multidisciplinary collaboration and a weakening of clinical elitism, thereby enhancing organizational effectiveness in health care and nurses' professional status. This is particularly important as nurses' roles continue to expand to embrace elements of managerial, medical and therapeutic work. Analysing nurses' decisions as classification behaviour will also enhance clinical effectiveness, and assist in making nurses' expertise more visible. In addition, the classification framework explodes the myth that intuition, traditionally associated with nurses' decision making, is less rational and scientific than other approaches.

Exchange fairness and employee performance:An examination of the relationship between organizational politics and procedural justice

Data obtained from a manufacturing firm and a newspaper firm in India were used to examine the relationship between organizational politics and procedural justice in three separate studies. Study 1 constructively replicated research on the distinctiveness of the two constructs. Confirmatory factor analyses in which data from the manufacturing firm served as the development sample and data from the newspaper firm served as the validation sample demonstrated the distinctiveness of organizational politics and procedural justice. Study 2 examined the antecedents of the two constructs using data from the manufacturing firm. Structural equation modeling (SEM) results revealed formalization and participation in decision making to be positively related to procedural justice but negatively related to organizational politics. Further, authority hierarchy and spatial distance were positively related to organizational politics but unrelated to procedural justice. Study 3 examined the consequences of the two constructs in terms of task and contextual performance using data from the newspaper firm. Results of SEM analysis revealed procedural justice but not organizational politics to be related to task performance and the contextual performance dimensions of interpersonal facilitation and job dedication. © 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The DRAMA methodology for analysing strategy and its links with production system design

This paper describes a methodology: 'decision rules for analyzing manufacturing activities', which is designed to be a practical system of enquiry linking a strategic analysis to the design of production systems. The paper describes the development of the system, an industry specific design methodology, into DRAMA II which is a model that serves as an analytical tool for studying decision processes and implementation of production systems.

Distributed control of computer communication systems

Flow control in Computer Communication systems is generally a multi-layered structure, consisting of several mechanisms operating independently at different levels. Evaluation of the performance of networks in which different flow control mechanisms act simultaneously is an important area of research, and is examined in depth in this thesis. This thesis presents the modelling of a finite resource computer communication network equipped with three levels of flow control, based on closed queueing network theory. The flow control mechanisms considered are: end-to-end control of virtual circuits, network access control of external messages at the entry nodes and the hop level control between nodes. The model is solved by a heuristic technique, based on an equivalent reduced network and the heuristic extensions to the mean value analysis algorithm. The method has significant computational advantages, and overcomes the limitations of the exact methods. It can be used to solve large network models with finite buffers and many virtual circuits. The model and its heuristic solution are validated by simulation. The interaction between the three levels of flow control are investigated. A queueing model is developed for the admission delay on virtual circuits with end-to-end control, in which messages arrive from independent Poisson sources. The selection of optimum window limit is considered. Several advanced network access schemes are postulated to improve the network performance as well as that of selected traffic streams, and numerical results are presented. A model for the dynamic control of input traffic is developed. Based on Markov decision theory, an optimal control policy is formulated. Numerical results are given and throughput-delay performance is shown to be better with dynamic control than with static control.

The process of strategic change:a management perspective

This thesis is concerned with the management processes concerned with complex strategic decision in organisations. The research has sought to explore these processes by taking as its focus the reconstruction of decision processes a) on the basis of an historical study of an industry and in particular a major company in that industry; and b) the perception and understanding of strategic decision processes and change by managers involved in companies in that industry. The main body of analysis and theoretical contributions arise from the detailed analysis of extended depth interviews with managers carried out in 1980 and 1983 which trace thirteen years of the strategic development of a firm. In so doing, extensive use is made of verbatim accounts by managers of events and their interpretation of events. This is then compared with data gathered from.similar interviews with managers of two other companies and examined in the light of existing research and theory in the field. The thesis both provides a detailed insight into the processes associated with the identification and resolution of complex strategic issues and also generates a body of theory concerning the mechanisms by which strategic decisions and the processes of strategic change are interwoven with the cultural and political fabric of organisations. The thesis is divided into four parts. The first part deals with the background to the research, provid1ng a fuller summary of the purpose, structure and content of the thesis and a discussion of relevant previous research and the methodology employed herein. The second part mainly provides case studies of the industry and the main company studied. The third part is a detailed presentation and analysis of data. The fourth part is a synthesis of the findings and consolidation of the theoretical interpretation advanced in the thesis.

An investigation of managerial skills:Implications for personnel policy

This research explores the conceptual basis in adopting a skills approach to management development. The literature reveals a number of development approaches but only a limited appreciation of how the manager does his job i.e. of the skills that he needs. An investigation of managerial skills was conducted with 10 manager s mainly occupying middle and senior positions. The principal source of evidence was the manager's thoughts on what he did and how he did it, although the interviews were supplemented by formal and informal observation. There was also a dialectic value from discussions with other analysts/managers and empathy between analyst and practitioner also played a part. Each manager was invited to comment upon his own skills analysis as a check upon validity. The study supports the view that the manager similar to other skilled practitioners, is conceptually a model builder and operationally a navigator (Singleton 1978b) . The manager variously holds enactive, pictorial, symbolic and hybrid models that enable him to understand his world and act in it. The universal managerial function is decision making and the study presents a preliminary nomenclature in classifying decision processes or perceptual skills. Managerial skills are also reflected in interpersonal interaction where the hallmark is mutual construction and attribution and in 'self-management’ where the requirement is to cope with the inner rather than the outer world. Differences between the managers are most evident in perceptual skills, the more senior manager requiring increasing ability to process abstract information and take account of environmental uncertainty. He will also make greater use of 'off- line’ information. The practical purpose in studying managerial skills is to facilitate the improvement of managerial performance and the implications of the research for training, selection and appraisal are explored.

Supply chain strategies for competitive manufacture

Few people would argue that there is one single solution to the design of a manufacturing supply chain. Relatively recent concepts such as strategic outsourcing and partnership sourcing are extremely valuable to some manufacturing organisations. This paper presents the findings of a comprehensive survey of manufacturing sourcing practices in the UK. This study has set out to understand current and intended practices that manufacturing companies have with their key suppliers, and also the decision processes and circumstances that have caused these relationships to occur.

Modelling the behaviour of engine assembly workers

Presents a prototype modelling methodology that provides a generic approach to the creation of quantitative models of the relationships between a working environment, the direct workers and their subsequent performance. Once created for an organisation, such models can provide a prediction of how the behaviour of their workers will alter in response to changes in their working environment. The goal of this work is to improve the decision processes used in the design of the working environment. Through improving such processes, companies will gain better performance from their direct workers, and so improve business competitiveness. This paper first presents the need to model the behaviour of direct workers in manufacturing environments. To begin to address this need, a simplistic modelling framework is developed, and then this is expanded to provide a detailed modelling methodology. There then follows a description of an industrial evaluation of this methodology at Ford Motor Company. This modelling methodology has been assessed in this case study and has been found to be valid in this case. There are many challenges that this theme of research needs to address. The work described in this paper has made an important first step in this area, having gone some way to establishing a generic methodology and illustrating its potential value. Our future work will build on this foundation.