Between global ambitions and local change:how multi-level cooperation advances norm implementation in weak states

The purpose of this article is to investigate in which ways multi-level actor cooperation advances national and local implementation processes of human rights norms in weak-state contexts. Examining the cases of women’s rights in Bosnia and Herzegovina and children’s rights in Bangladesh, we comparatively point to some advantages and disadvantages cooperative relations between international organisations, national governments and local NGOs can entail. Whereas these multi-level actor constellations (MACs) usually initiate norm implementation processes reliably and compensate governmental deficits, they are not always sustainable in the long run. If international organisations withdraw support from temporary missions or policy projects, local NGOs are not able to perpetuate implementation activities if state capacities have not been strengthened by MACs. Our aim is to highlight functions of local agency within multi-level cooperation and to critically raise sustainability issues in human rights implementation to supplement norm research in International Relations.

Modelling foreign direct investment in China

This thesis consists of three empirical and one theoretical studies. While China has received an increasing amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) and become the second largest host country for FDI in recent years, the absence of comprehensive studies on FDI inflows into this country drives this research. In the first study, an econometric model is developed to analyse the economic, political, cultural and geographic determinants of both pledged and realised FDI in China. The results of this study suggest that China's relatively cheaper labour force, high degree of international integration with the outside world (represented by its exports and imports) and bilateral exchange rates are the important economic determinants of both pledged FDI and realised FDI in China. The second study analyses the regional distribution of both pledged and realised FDI within China. The econometric properties of the panel data set are examined using a standardised 't-bar' test. The empirical results indicate that provinces with higher level of international trade, lower wage rates, more R&D manpower, more preferential policies and closer ethnic links with overseas Chinese attract relatively more FDI. The third study constructs a dynamic equilibrium model to study the interactions among FDI, knowledge spillovers and long run economic growth in a developing country. The ideas of endogenous product cycles and trade-related international knowledge spillovers are modified and extended to FDI. The major conclusion is that, in the presence of FDI, economic growth is determined by the stock of human capital, the subjective discount rate and knowledge gap, while unskilled labour can not sustain growth. In the fourth study, the role of FDI in the growth process of the Chinese economy is investigated by using a panel of data for 27 provinces across China between 1986 and 1995. In addition to FDI, domestic R&D expenditure, international trade and human capital are added to the standard convergence regressions to control for different structural characteristics in each province. The empirical results support endogenous innovation growth theory in which regional per capita income can converge given technological diffusion, transfer and imitation.

Some further empirical evidence on the impact of oil price changes on petrol prices

This paper analyses the asymmetries in the response of petrol prices to oil price shocks. We show that previous work, based on the determination of asymmetric responses, can be improved upon by allowing for asymmetries in short term dynamics. The paper shows that a significant determinant of the response of petrol prices to oil price changes, is the extent to which petrol price can be seen to have departed from its long run equilibrium level.

Information and Communication Technology (ICT) international spillovers

As information and communications technology (ICT) involves both traditional capital and knowledge capital, potential spillovers through various mechanisms can occur. Having tried to confirm the existence of ICT spillovers across country borders as Park et al. (Inf. Syst. Res., vol. 18, pp. 86-102, 2007), we investigate the patterns and mechanisms of international ICT spillovers. We use panel data on 37 countries from 1996 to 2004. We find that developing countries could reap more benefits from ICT spillovers than developed countries. We also find that the higher the Internet penetration rate in recipient countries, the more international ICT spillovers there might exist. Our findings are important for policy decisions regarding national trade liberalization and economic integration. Developing economies that are more open to foreign trade may have an economic advantage and may develop knowledge-intensive activities, which will lead to economic development in the long run.

‘O convergence, where art thou?’ Regional growth and industrialization in Italy

This paper shows that the Italian economy has two long-run equilibria, which are due to the different level of industrialization between the centre-north and the south of the country. These equilibria converge until 1971 but diverge afterwards; the end of the convergence process coincides with the slowing down of Italy's industrialization policy in the South. In this paper we argue that to address this problem effectively, an economic policy completely different from that in place in needed. However, such a policy is unlikely to be implemented given the scarcity of resources and the short run nature of the political cycle.

Public capital and total factor productivity:new evidence from the Italian regions, 1970-98

This paper analyses the relationship between industrial total factor productivity and public capital across the 20 Italian administrative regions. It adds upon the existing literature in a number of ways: it analyses a longer period (1970-98); it allows for the role of human capital accumulation; it tests for the existence of a long-run relationship between total factor productivity and public capital (through previously suggested panel techniques) and for weak exogeneity of public capital; and it assesses the significance of public capital within a non-parametric set-up based on the Free Disposal Hull. The results confirm that public capital has a significant impact on the evolution of total factor productivity, particularly in the Southern regions. This impact is mainly ascribed to the core infrastructures (road and airports, harbours, railroads, water and electricity, telecommunications). Also, core infrastructures are weakly exogenous. © 2005 Regional Studies Association.

Where next for PSMs - a grass-roots revolution?

Over the last 30 years, the field of problem structuring methods (PSMs) has been pioneered by a handful of 'gurus'—the most visible of whom have contributed other viewpoints to this special issue. As this generation slowly retires, it is opportune to survey the field and their legacy. We focus on the progress the community has made up to 2000, as work that started afterwards is ongoing and its impact on the field will probably only become apparent in 5–10 years time. We believe that up to 2000, research into PSMs was stagnating. We believe that this was partly due to a lack of new researchers penetrating what we call the 'grass-roots community'—the community which takes an active role in developing the theory and application of problem structuring. Evidence for this stagnation (or lack of development) is that, in 2000, many PSMs still relied heavily on the same basic methods proposed by the originators nearly 30 years earlier—perhaps only supporting those methods with computer software as a sign of development. Furthermore, no new methods had been integrated into the literature which suggests that revolutionary development, at least by academics, has stalled. We are pleased to suggest that from papers in this double special issue on PSMs this trend seems over because new authors report new PSMs and extend existing PSMs in new directions. Despite these recent developments of the methods, it is important to examine why this apparent stagnation took place. In the following sections, we identify and elaborate a number of reasons for it. We also consider the trends, challenges and opportunities that the PSM community will continue to face. Our aim is to evaluate the pre-2000 PSM community to encourage its revolutionary development post-2006 and offer directions for the long term sustainability of the field.

Profitability of a sample of Portuguese bank branches and its decomposition into technical and allocative components

The efficiency literature, both using parametric and non-parametric methods, has been focusing mainly on cost efficiency analysis rather than on profit efficiency. In for-profit organisations, however, the measurement of profit efficiency and its decomposition into technical and allocative efficiency is particularly relevant. In this paper a newly developed method is used to measure profit efficiency and to identify the sources of any shortfall in profitability (technical and/or allocative inefficiency). The method is applied to a set of Portuguese bank branches first assuming long run and then a short run profit maximisation objective. In the long run most of the scope for profit improvement of bank branches is by becoming more allocatively efficient. In the short run most of profit gain can be realised through higher technical efficiency. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trade balance and real exchange rate:new evidence from Mauritius-UK trade

In this study we investigate whether there exists a relationship between the exchange rate and the trade balance using bilateral data for the Mauritius/UK trade. We also investigate whether following depreciation or a devaluation the trade balance initially worsens due to contractual agreements and subsequently improves when new contracts for international trade are signed. Using a variety of econometric techniques we are able to establish that there exists a long-run relationship between the trade balance and the real exchange rate. The existence of such a relationship signifies that the authorities would be able to use the exchange rate to steer the trade balance. We also find following a depreciation or devaluation the trade balance initially worsens due to contractual agreements but the trade balance subsequently improves when new contracts are signed. This signifies that if the authorities want to devalue their currency to improve the trade balance, the desired effect does not occur immediately but it occurs with a lag, in this particular case after approximately a year.

Externality effects of information and communication technologies across country Borders

As information and communications technology (ICT) involves both traditional capital and knowledge capital, potential spillovers through various mechanisms can occur. We posit that ICT capital may boost productivity growth, not only in the home country, but also in other countries. In this paper, we provide empirical evidence of such spillovers using panel data on 37 countries from 1996 to 2004. Our results support the existence of ICT spillovers across country borders. Furthermore, we find that developing countries could reap more benefits from ICT spillovers than developed countries. This is particularly important for policy decisions regarding national trade liberalization and economic integration. Developing economies that are more open to foreign trade may have an economic advantage and may develop knowledge-intensive activities, which will lead to economic development in the long run.

An econometric analysis of international tourism demand in Hong Kong : a cointegration and error correction approach

The purpose of this study is to develop econometric models to better understand the economic factors affecting inbound tourist flows from each of six origin countries that contribute to Hong Kong’s international tourism demand. To this end, we test alternative cointegration and error correction approaches to examine the economic determinants of tourist flows to Hong Kong, and to produce accurate econometric forecasts of inbound tourism demand. Our empirical findings show that permanent income is the most significant determinant of tourism demand in all models. The variables of own price, weighted substitute prices, trade volume, the share price index (as an indicator of changes in wealth in origin countries), and a dummy variable representing the Beijing incident (1989) are also found to be important determinants for some origin countries. The average long-run income and own price elasticity was measured at 2.66 and – 1.02, respectively. It was hypothesised that permanent income is a better explanatory variable of long-haul tourism demand than current income. A novel approach (grid search process) has been used to empirically derive the weights to be attached to the lagged income variable for estimating permanent income. The results indicate that permanent income, estimated with empirically determined relatively small weighting factors, was capable of producing better results than the current income variable in explaining long-haul tourism demand. This finding suggests that the use of current income in previous empirical tourism demand studies may have produced inaccurate results. The share price index, as a measure of wealth, was also found to be significant in two models. Studies of tourism demand rarely include wealth as an explanatory forecasting long-haul tourism demand. However, finding a satisfactory proxy for wealth common to different countries is problematic. This study indicates with the ECM (Error Correction Models) based on the Engle-Granger (1987) approach produce more accurate forecasts than ECM based on Pesaran and Shin (1998) and Johansen (1988, 1991, 1995) approaches for all of the long-haul markets and Japan. Overall, ECM produce better forecasts than the OLS, ARIMA and NAÏVE models, indicating the superiority of the application of a cointegration approach for tourism demand forecasting. The results show that permanent income is the most important explanatory variable for tourism demand from all countries but there are substantial variations between countries with the long-run elasticity ranging between 1.1 for the U.S. and 5.3 for U.K. Price is the next most important variable with the long-run elasticities ranging between -0.8 for Japan and -1.3 for Germany and short-run elasticities ranging between – 0.14 for Germany and -0.7 for Taiwan. The fastest growing market is Mainland China. The findings have implications for policies and strategies on investment, marketing promotion and pricing.

Household sector money demand for the UK

We test for the existence of a long-run money demand relationship for the UK involving household-sector Divisia and simple sum monetary indexes for the period from 1977 to 2008. We construct our Divisia index using non-break-adjusted levels and break-adjusted flows following the Bank of England. We test for cointegration between the real Divisia and simple sum indexes, their corresponding opportunity cost measures, real income and real share prices. Our results support the existence of a long-run money demand relationship for both the Divisia and simple sum indexes.

Manufacturing organisation in developing countries with particular reference to Iraq

Industrially developed countries are able to absorb modern techniques of science and technology quite readily; this is not the case for less-developed countries. Attempts made by developing countries have been ineffective due to factors not readily admitted. This thesis highlights the areas that need to be developed by under-developed countries, and covers economic, scientific and technological, and social aspects as well as technology transfer. Economic areas considered acknowledge that within any one country there should be proper procedures for planning economic and industrial projects (plant design) supported by efficient economic development strategy. Scientific and technological factors considered include the major areas that need to be developed in order to produce and/or deal with scientific and technological issues for the interest of the national development. Technology transfer areas considered include the necessity of building up a national body (system) responsible for dealing with activities and tasks of transferring foreign-made technology so that it can be employed effectively within the environment of the country. Social factors considered include the need to develop human resources which can be employed efficiently into the whole process of development, and particularly for the above proposed systems. Education and training are the major elements that ought to be tackled to produce skilled manpower and to overcome the social and cultural values and traditions that are inherited by the society. This thesis highlights the above areas in an attempt to plan and organise the development of science and technology, and their implementation into the development as a whole. Whilst recognising the problems of creating this sort of development in developing countries, the author considers the benefits to be obtained are much greater in the long run.

Public sector investment appraisal:the place of flexibility in the decision making process

This thesis reviews the main methodological developments in public sector investment appraisal and finds growing evidence that appraisal techniques are not fulfilling their earlier promise. It is suggested that an important reason for this failure lies in the inability of these techniques to handle uncertainty except in a highly circumscribed fashion. It is argued that a more fruitful approach is to strive for flexibility. Investment projects should be formulated with a view to making them responsive to a wide range of possible future events, rather than embodying a solution which is optimal for one configuration of circumstances only. The distinction drawn in economics between the short and the long run is used to examine the nature of flexibility. The concept of long run flexibility is applied to the pre-investment range of choice open to the decisionmaker. It is demonstrated that flexibility is reduced at a very early stage of decisionmaking by the conventional system of appraisal which evaluates only a small number of options. The pre-appraisal filtering process is considered further in relation to decisionmaking models. It is argued that for public sector projects the narrowing down of options is best understood in relation to an amended mixed scanning model which places importance on the process by which the 'national interest ' is determined. Short run flexibility deals with operational characteristics, the degree to which particular projects may respond to changing demands when the basic investment is already in place. The tension between flexibility and cost is noted. A short case study on the choice of electricity generating plant is presented. The thesis concludes with a brief examination of the approaches used by successive British governments to public sector investment, particularly in relation to the nationalised industries

Modeling foreign exchange rate pass-through using the exponential GARCH

In this chapter, the authors use an EGARCH-ECM to estimate the pass-through effects of Foreign Exchange (FX) rate changes and changes in producers' prices for 20 U.K. export sectors. The long-run adjustments of export prices to FX rate changes and changes in producers' prices are within the range of -1.02% (for the Textiles sector) and -17.22% (for the Meat sector). The contemporaneous Pricing-To-Market (PTM) coefficients are within the range of -72.84% (for the Fuels sector) and -8.05% (for the Textiles sector). Short-run FX rate pass-through is not complete even after several months. Rolling EGARCH-ECMs show that the short and long-run effects of changes in FX rate and producers' prices vary substantially, as do asymmetry and volatility estimates before equilibrium is achieved.