4 resultados para Long cycles

em Aston University Research Archive


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This doctoral thesis originates from an observational incongruence between the perennial aims and aspirations of economic endeavour and actually recorded outcomes, which frequently seem contrary to those intended and of a recurrent, cyclical type. The research hypothesizes parallel movement between unstable business environments through time, as expressed by periodically fluctuating levels of economic activity, and the precipitation rates of industrial production companies. A major problem arose from the need to provide theoretical and empirical cohesion from the conflicting, partial and fragmented interpretations of several hundred historians and economists, without which the research question would remain unanswerable. An attempt to discover a master cycle, or superimposition theorem, failed, but was replaced by minute analysis of both the concept of cycles and their underlying data-bases. A novel technique of congregational analysis emerged, resulting in an integrated matrix of numerical history. Two centuries of industrial revolution history in England and Wales was then explored and recomposed for the first time in a single account of change, thereby providing a factual basis for the matrix. The accompanying history of the Birmingham area provided the context of research into the failure rates and longevities of firms in the city's staple metal industries. Sample specific results are obtained for company longevities in the Birmingham area. Some novel presentational forms are deployed for results of a postal questionnaire to surviving firms. Practical demonstration of the new index of national economic activity (INEA) in relation to company insolvencies leads to conclusions and suggestions for further applications of research into the tempo of change, substantial Appendices support the thesis and provide a compendium of information covering immediately contiguous domains.

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We present a novel apodisation scheme for photo-induced waveguide gratings. The apodisation is implemented with double exposures that have reversely varying duty cycles. We have successfully applied the proposed scheme to remove the sidelobes of long period gratings (LPGs). We also observed for the first time super strong sidelobes in LPGs when creating them with only a single varying-duty-cycle exposure. The strong sidelobes can be well explained with a Mach-Zehnder interference model.

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We present a novel apodisation scheme for photo-induced waveguide gratings. The apodisation is implemented with double exposures that have reversely varying duty cycles. We have successfully applied the proposed scheme to remove the sidelobes of long period gratings (LPGs). We also observed for the first time super strong sidelobes in LPGs when creating them with only a single varying-duty-cycle exposure. The strong sidelobes can be well explained with a Mach-Zehnder interference model.

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The authors conduct a systematic investigation into the cyclical sensitivity of advertising expenditures in 37 countries, covering four key media: magazines, newspapers, radio, and television. They show that advertising is considerably more sensitive to business-cycle fluctuations than the economy as a whole. Advertising behaves less cyclically in countries high in long-term orientation and power distance, but it is more cyclical in countries high in uncertainty avoidance. Furthermore, advertising is more sensitive to the business cycle in countries characterized by significant stock market pressure and few foreign-owned multinational corporations. The authors provide initial evidence on the long-term social and managerial losses incurred when companies tie ad spending too tightly to business cycles. Countries in which advertising behaves more cyclically exhibit slower growth of the advertising industry. Moreover, private-label growth is higher in countries characterized by more cyclical advertising spending, implying significant losses for brand manufacturers. Finally, an examination of 26 global companies shows that stock price performance is lower for companies that exhibit stronger procyclical advertising spending patterns.