A knowledge-based system for process planning in a seamless steel tube plant

The thesis describes the work carried out to develop a prototype knowledge-based system 'KBS-SETUPP' to generate process plans for the manufacture of seamless tubes. The work is specifically related to a plant in which hollows are made from solid billets using a rotary piercing process and then reduced to required size and finished properties using the fixed plug cold drawing process. The thesis first discusses various methods of tube production in order to give a general background of tube manufacture. Then a review of the automation of the process planning function is presented in terms of its basic sub-tasks and the techniques and suitability of a knowledge-based system is established. In the light of such a review and a case study, the process planning problem is formulated in the domain of seamless tube manufacture, its basic sub-tasks are identified and capabilities and constraints of the available equipment in the specific plant are established. The task of collecting and collating the process planning knowledge in seamless tube manufacture is discussed and is mostly fulfilled from domain experts, analysing of existing manufacturing records specific to plant, textbooks and applicable Standards. For the cold drawing mill, tube-drawing schedules have been rationalised to correspond with practice. The validation of such schedules has been achieved by computing the process parameters and then comparing these with the drawbench capacity to avoid over-loading. The existing models cannot be simulated in the computer program as such, therefore a mathematical model has been proposed which estimates the process parameters which are in close agreement with experimental values established by other researchers. To implement the concepts, a Knowledge-Based System 'KBS- SETUPP' has been developed on Personal Computer using Turbo- Prolog. The system is capable of generating process plans, production schedules and some additional capabilities to supplement process planning. The system generated process plans have been compared with the actual plans of the company and it has been shown that the results are satisfactory and encouraging and that the system has the capabilities which are useful.

Knowledge-based system for casting process selection

Design of casting entails the knowledge of various interacting factors that are unique to casting process, and, quite often, product designers do not have the required foundry-specific knowledge. Casting designers normally have to liaise with casting experts in order to ensure the product designed is castable and the optimum casting method is selected. This two-way communication results in long design lead times, and lack of it can easily lead to incorrect casting design. A computer-based system at the discretion of a design engineer can, however, alleviate this problem and enhance the prospect of casting design for manufacture. This paper proposes a knowledge-based expert system approach to assist casting product designers in selecting the most suitable casting process for specified casting design requirements, during the design phase of product manufacture. A prototype expert system has been developed, based on production rules knowledge representation technique. The proposed system consists of a number of autonomous but interconnected levels, each dealing with a specific group of factors, namely, casting alloy, shape and complexity parameters, accuracy requirements and comparative costs, based on production quantity. The user interface has been so designed to allow the user to have a clear view of how casting design parameters affect the selection of various casting processes at each level; if necessary, the appropriate design changes can be made to facilitate the castability of the product being designed, or to suit the design to a preferred casting method.

We know what you want to buy:a demographic-based system for product recommendation on microblogs

Product recommender systems are often deployed by e-commerce websites to improve user experience and increase sales. However, recommendation is limited by the product information hosted in those e-commerce sites and is only triggered when users are performing e-commerce activities. In this paper, we develop a novel product recommender system called METIS, a MErchanT Intelligence recommender System, which detects users' purchase intents from their microblogs in near real-time and makes product recommendation based on matching the users' demographic information extracted from their public profiles with product demographics learned from microblogs and online reviews. METIS distinguishes itself from traditional product recommender systems in the following aspects: 1) METIS was developed based on a microblogging service platform. As such, it is not limited by the information available in any specific e-commerce website. In addition, METIS is able to track users' purchase intents in near real-time and make recommendations accordingly. 2) In METIS, product recommendation is framed as a learning to rank problem. Users' characteristics extracted from their public profiles in microblogs and products' demographics learned from both online product reviews and microblogs are fed into learning to rank algorithms for product recommendation. We have evaluated our system in a large dataset crawled from Sina Weibo. The experimental results have verified the feasibility and effectiveness of our system. We have also made a demo version of our system publicly available and have implemented a live system which allows registered users to receive recommendations in real time. © 2014 ACM.

Privacy and the City:user identification and location semantics in location-based social networks

With the advent of GPS enabled smartphones, an increasing number of users is actively sharing their location through a variety of applications and services. Along with the continuing growth of Location-Based Social Networks (LBSNs), security experts have increasingly warned the public of the dangers of exposing sensitive information such as personal location data. Most importantly, in addition to the geographical coordinates of the user’s location, LBSNs allow easy access to an additional set of characteristics of that location, such as the venue type or popularity. In this paper, we investigate the role of location semantics in the identification of LBSN users. We simulate a scenario in which the attacker’s goal is to reveal the identity of a set of LBSN users by observing their check-in activity. We then propose to answer the following question: what are the types of venues that a malicious user has to monitor to maximize the probability of success? Conversely, when should a user decide whether to make his/her check-in to a location public or not? We perform our study on more than 1 million check-ins distributed over 17 urban regions of the United States. Our analysis shows that different types of venues display different discriminative power in terms of user identity, with most of the venues in the “Residence” category providing the highest re-identification success across the urban regions. Interestingly, we also find that users with a high entropy of their check-ins distribution are not necessarily the hardest to identify, suggesting that it is the collective behaviour of the users’ population that determines the complexity of the identification task, rather than the individual behaviour.

It's the way you check-in:identifying users in location-based social networks

In recent years, the rapid spread of smartphones has led to the increasing popularity of Location-Based Social Networks (LBSNs). Although a number of research studies and articles in the press have shown the dangers of exposing personal location data, the inherent nature of LBSNs encourages users to publish information about their current location (i.e., their check-ins). The same is true for the majority of the most popular social networking websites, which offer the possibility of associating the current location of users to their posts and photos. Moreover, some LBSNs, such as Foursquare, let users tag their friends in their check-ins, thus potentially releasing location information of individuals that have no control over the published data. This raises additional privacy concerns for the management of location information in LBSNs. In this paper we propose and evaluate a series of techniques for the identification of users from their check-in data. More specifically, we first present two strategies according to which users are characterized by the spatio-temporal trajectory emerging from their check-ins over time and the frequency of visit to specific locations, respectively. In addition to these approaches, we also propose a hybrid strategy that is able to exploit both types of information. It is worth noting that these techniques can be applied to a more general class of problems where locations and social links of individuals are available in a given dataset. We evaluate our techniques by means of three real-world LBSNs datasets, demonstrating that a very limited amount of data points is sufficient to identify a user with a high degree of accuracy. For instance, we show that in some datasets we are able to classify more than 80% of the users correctly.

Integrating service user and practitioner expertise within a web-based system for collaborative mental-health risk and safety management

Objectives: To develop a decision support system (DSS), myGRaCE, that integrates service user (SU) and practitioner expertise about mental health and associated risks of suicide, self-harm, harm to others, self-neglect, and vulnerability. The intention is to help SUs assess and manage their own mental health collaboratively with practitioners. Methods: An iterative process involving interviews, focus groups, and agile software development with 115 SUs, to elicit and implement myGRaCE requirements. Results: Findings highlight shared understanding of mental health risk between SUs and practitioners that can be integrated within a single model. However, important differences were revealed in SUs' preferred process of assessing risks and safety, which are reflected in the distinctive interface, navigation, tool functionality and language developed for myGRaCE. A challenge was how to provide flexible access without overwhelming and confusing users. Conclusion: The methods show that practitioner expertise can be reformulated in a format that simultaneously captures SU expertise, to provide a tool highly valued by SUs. A stepped process adds necessary structure to the assessment, each step with its own feedback and guidance. Practice Implications: The GRiST web-based DSS (www.egrist.org) links and integrates myGRaCE self-assessments with GRiST practitioner assessments for supporting collaborative and self-managed healthcare.

A knowledge based system of principled negotiation for complex business contract

Automated negotiation systems can do better than human being in many aspects, and thus are applied into many domains ranging from business to computer science. However, little work about automating negotiation of complex business contract has been done so far although it is a kind of the most important negotiation in business. In order to address this issue, in this paper we developed an automated system for this kind of negotiation. This system is based on the principled negotiation theory, which is the most effective method of negotiation in the domain of business. The system is developed as a knowledge-based one because a negotiating agent in business has to be economically intelligent and capable of making effective decisions based on business experiences and knowledge. Finally, the validity of the developed system is shown in a real negotiation scenario where on behalf of human users, the system successfully performed a negotiation of a complex business contract between a wholesaler and a retailer. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Achieving cost competitiveness with an agent based integrated process planning and production scheduling system

From a manufacturing perspective, the efficiency of manufacturing operations (such as process planning and production scheduling) are the key element for enhancing manufacturing competence. Process planning and production scheduling functions have been traditionally treated as two separate activities, and have resulted in a range of inefficiencies. These include infeasible process plans, non-available/overloaded resources, high production costs, long production lead times, and so on. Above all, it is unlikely that the dynamic changes can be efficiently dealt with. Despite much research has been conducted to integrate process planning and production scheduling to generate optimised solutions to improve manufacturing efficiency, there is still a gap to achieve the competence required for the current global competitive market. In this research, the concept of multi-agent system (MAS) is adopted as a means to address the aforementioned gap. A MAS consists of a collection of intelligent autonomous agents able to solve complex problems. These agents possess their individual objectives and interact with each other to fulfil the global goal. This paper describes a novel use of an autonomous agent system to facilitate the integration of process planning and production scheduling functions to cope with unpredictable demands, in terms of uncertainties in product mix and demand pattern. The novelty lies with the currency-based iterative agent bidding mechanism to allow process planning and production scheduling options to be evaluated simultaneously, so as to search for an optimised, cost-effective solution. This agent based system aims to achieve manufacturing competence by means of enhancing the flexibility and agility of manufacturing enterprises.

A DEA-based incentives system for centrally managed multi-unit organisations

In multi-unit organisations such as a bank and its branches or a national body delivering publicly funded health or education services through local operating units, the need arises to incentivize the units to operate efficiently. In such instances, it is generally accepted that units found to be inefficient can be encouraged to make efficiency savings. However, units which are found to be efficient need to be incentivized in a different manner. It has been suggested that efficient units could be incentivized by some reward compatible with the level to which their attainment exceeds that of the best of the rest, normally referred to as “super-efficiency”. A recent approach to this issue (Varmaz et. al. 2013) has used Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models to measure the super-efficiency of the whole system of operating units with and without the involvement of each unit in turn in order to provide incentives. We identify shortcomings in this approach and use it as a starting point to develop a new DEA-based system for incentivizing operating units to operate efficiently for the benefit of the aggregate system of units. Data from a small German retail bank is used to illustrate our method.

Developing a categorisation system for rapists' speech

Case linkage, the linking of crimes into series, is used in policing in the UK and other countries. Previous researchers have proposed using rapists' speech in this practice; however, researching this application requires the development of a reliable coding system for rapists' speech. A system was developed based on linguistic theories of pragmatics which allowed for the categorization of an utterance into a speech act type (e.g. directive). Following this classification, the qualitative properties of the utterances (e.g. the degree of threat it carried) could be captured through the use of rating scales. This system was tested against a previously developed system using 188 rapists' utterances taken from victims' descriptions of rape. The pragmatics-based system demonstrated higher inter-rater reliability whilst enabling the classification of a greater number of rapists' utterances. Inter-rater reliability for the subscales was also tested using a sub-sample of 50 rapists' utterances and inter-item correlations were calculated. Seventy-six per cent of the subscales had satisfactory to high inter-rater reliability. Based on these findings and the inter-item correlations, the classification system was revised. The potential use of this system for the practices of case linkage and offender profiling is discussed.

Web based expert elicitation of uncertainties in environmental model inputs

When constructing and using environmental models, it is typical that many of the inputs to the models will not be known perfectly. In some cases, it will be possible to make observations, or occasionally physics-based uncertainty propagation, to ascertain the uncertainty on these inputs. However, such observations are often either not available or even possible, and another approach to characterising the uncertainty on the inputs must be sought. Even when observations are available, if the analysis is being carried out within a Bayesian framework then prior distributions will have to be specified. One option for gathering or at least estimating this information is to employ expert elicitation. Expert elicitation is well studied within statistics and psychology and involves the assessment of the beliefs of a group of experts about an uncertain quantity, (for example an input / parameter within a model), typically in terms of obtaining a probability distribution. One of the challenges in expert elicitation is to minimise the biases that might enter into the judgements made by the individual experts, and then to come to a consensus decision within the group of experts. Effort is made in the elicitation exercise to prevent biases clouding the judgements through well-devised questioning schemes. It is also important that, when reaching a consensus, the experts are exposed to the knowledge of the others in the group. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project (http://www.uncertweb.org/), there is a requirement to build a Webbased tool for expert elicitation. In this paper, we discuss some of the issues of building a Web-based elicitation system - both the technological aspects and the statistical and scientific issues. In particular, we demonstrate two tools: a Web-based system for the elicitation of continuous random variables and a system designed to elicit uncertainty about categorical random variables in the setting of landcover classification uncertainty. The first of these examples is a generic tool developed to elicit uncertainty about univariate continuous random variables. It is designed to be used within an application context and extends the existing SHELF method, adding a web interface and access to metadata. The tool is developed so that it can be readily integrated with environmental models exposed as web services. The second example was developed for the TREES-3 initiative which monitors tropical landcover change through ground-truthing at confluence points. It allows experts to validate the accuracy of automated landcover classifications using site-specific imagery and local knowledge. Experts may provide uncertainty information at various levels: from a general rating of their confidence in a site validation to a numerical ranking of the possible landcover types within a segment. A key challenge in the web based setting is the design of the user interface and the method of interacting between the problem owner and the problem experts. We show the workflow of the elicitation tool, and show how we can represent the final elicited distributions and confusion matrices using UncertML, ready for integration into uncertainty enabled workflows.We also show how the metadata associated with the elicitation exercise is captured and can be referenced from the elicited result, providing crucial lineage information and thus traceability in the decision making process.

Dynamic QoS management and optimisation in service-based systems

Service-based systems that are dynamically composed at run time to provide complex, adaptive functionality are currently one of the main development paradigms in software engineering. However, the Quality of Service (QoS) delivered by these systems remains an important concern, and needs to be managed in an equally adaptive and predictable way. To address this need, we introduce a novel, tool-supported framework for the development of adaptive service-based systems called QoSMOS (QoS Management and Optimisation of Service-based systems). QoSMOS can be used to develop service-based systems that achieve their QoS requirements through dynamically adapting to changes in the system state, environment and workload. QoSMOS service-based systems translate high-level QoS requirements specified by their administrators into probabilistic temporal logic formulae, which are then formally and automatically analysed to identify and enforce optimal system configurations. The QoSMOS self-adaptation mechanism can handle reliability- and performance-related QoS requirements, and can be integrated into newly developed solutions or legacy systems. The effectiveness and scalability of the approach are validated using simulations and a set of experiments based on an implementation of an adaptive service-based system for remote medical assistance.

Quasi-lossless data transmission with ultra-long Raman fibre laser based amplification

The project consists of an experimental and numerical modelling study of the applications of ultra-long Raman fibre laser (URFL) based amplification techniques for high-speed multi-wavelength optical communications systems. The research is focused in telecommunications C-band 40 Gb/s transmission data rates with direct and coherent detection. The optical transmission performance of URFL based systems in terms of optical noise, gain bandwidth and gain flatness for different system configurations is evaluated. Systems with different overall span lengths, transmission fibre types and data modulation formats are investigated. Performance is compared with conventional Erbium doped fibre amplifier based system to evaluate system configurations where URFL based amplification provide performance or commercial advantages.