Derivations of variational gaussian process approximation framework

Recently, within the VISDEM project (EPSRC funded EP/C005848/1), a novel variational approximation framework has been developed for inference in partially observed, continuous space-time, diffusion processes. In this technical report all the derivations of the variational framework, from the initial work, are provided in detail to help the reader better understand the framework and its assumptions.

The design of a real-time nowcasting system for localised weather

National meteorological offices are largely concerned with synoptic-scale forecasting where weather predictions are produced for a whole country for 24 hours ahead. In practice, many local organisations (such as emergency services, construction industries, forestry, farming, and sports) require only local short-term, bespoke, weather predictions and warnings. This thesis shows that the less-demanding requirements do not require exceptional computing power and can be met by a modern, desk-top system which monitors site-specific ground conditions (such as temperature, pressure, wind speed and direction, etc) augmented with above ground information from satellite images to produce `nowcasts'. The emphasis in this thesis has been towards the design of such a real-time system for nowcasting. Local site-specific conditions are monitored using a custom-built, stand alone, Motorola 6809 based sub-system. Above ground information is received from the METEOSAT 4 geo-stationary satellite using a sub-system based on a commercially available equipment. The information is ephemeral and must be captured in real-time. The real-time nowcasting system for localised weather handles the data as a transparent task using the limited capabilities of the PC system. Ground data produces a time series of measurements at a specific location which represents the past-to-present atmospheric conditions of the particular site from which much information can be extracted. The novel approach adopted in this thesis is one of constructing stochastic models based on the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) technique. The satellite images contain features (such as cloud formations) which evolve dynamically and may be subject to movement, growth, distortion, bifurcation, superposition, or elimination between images. The process of extracting a weather feature, following its motion and predicting its future evolution involves algorithms for normalisation, partitioning, filtering, image enhancement, and correlation of multi-dimensional signals in different domains. To limit the processing requirements, the analysis in this thesis concentrates on an `area of interest'. By this rationale, only a small fraction of the total image needs to be processed, leading to a major saving in time. The thesis also proposes an extention to an existing manual cloud classification technique for its implementation in automatically classifying a cloud feature over the `area of interest' for nowcasting using the multi-dimensional signals.

A new variational radial basis function approximation for inference in multivariate diffusions

In this paper we present a radial basis function based extension to a recently proposed variational algorithm for approximate inference for diffusion processes. Inference, for state and in particular (hyper-) parameters, in diffusion processes is a challenging and crucial task. We show that the new radial basis function approximation based algorithm converges to the original algorithm and has beneficial characteristics when estimating (hyper-)parameters. We validate our new approach on a nonlinear double well potential dynamical system.

A simulation study of a localised computer network

An investigation is carried out into the design of a small local computer network for eventual implementation on the University of Aston campus. Microprocessors are investigated as a possible choice for use as a node controller for reasons of cost and reliability. Since the network will be local, high speed lines of megabit order are proposed. After an introduction to several well known networks, various aspects of networks are discussed including packet switching, functions of a node and host-node protocol. Chapter three develops the network philosophy with an introduction to microprocessors. Various organisations of microprocessors into multicomputer and multiprocessor systems are discussed, together with methods of achieving reliabls computing. Chapter four presents the simulation model and its implentation as a computer program. The major modelling effort is to study the behaviour of messages queueing for access to the network and the message delay experienced on the network. Use is made of spectral analysis to determine the sampling frequency while Sxponentially Weighted Noving Averages are used for data smoothing.

Behaviour of concrete frame structures under localised fire scenarios

This thesis encompasses an investigation of the behaviour of concrete frame structure under localised fire scenarios by implementing a constitutive model using finite-element computer program. The investigation phase included properties of material at elevated temperature, description of computer program, thermal and structural analyses. Transient thermal properties of material have been employed in this study to achieve reasonable results. The finite-element computer package of ANSYS is utilized in the present analyses to examine the effect of fire on the concrete frame under five various fire scenarios. In addition, a report of full-scale BRE Cardington concrete building designed to Eurocode2 and BS8110 subjected to realistic compartment fire is also presented. The transient analyses of present model included additional specific heat to the base value of dry concrete at temperature 100°C and 200°C. The combined convective-radiation heat transfer coefficient and transient thermal expansion have also been considered in the analyses. For the analyses with the transient strains included, the constitutive model based on empirical formula in a full thermal strain-stress model proposed by Li and Purkiss (2005) is employed. Comparisons between the models with and without transient strains included are also discussed. Results of present study indicate that the behaviour of complete structure is significantly different from the behaviour of individual isolated members based on current design methods. Although the current tabulated design procedures are conservative when the entire building performance is considered, it should be noted that the beneficial and detrimental effects of thermal expansion in complete structures should be taken into account. Therefore, developing new fire engineering methods from the study of complete structures rather than from individual isolated member behaviour is essential.

Approximation of photonic crystal fibres with large air holes by the step index fibre model

An equivalent step index fibre with a silica core and air cladding is used to model photonic crystal fibres with large air holes. We model this fibre for linear polarisation (we focus on the lowest few transverse modes of the electromagnetic field). The equivalent step index radius is obtained by equating the lowest two eigenvalues of the model to those calculated numerically for the photonic crystal fibres. The step index parameters thus obtained can then be used to calculate nonlinear parameters like the nonlinear effective area of a photonic crystal fibre or to model nonlinear few-mode interactions using an existing model.

Numerical approximation of the one-dimensional inverse Cauchy–Stefan problem using a method of fundamental solutions

We investigate an application of the method of fundamental solutions (MFS) to the one-dimensional parabolic inverse Cauchy–Stefan problem, where boundary data and the initial condition are to be determined from the Cauchy data prescribed on a given moving interface. In [B.T. Johansson, D. Lesnic, and T. Reeve, A method of fundamental solutions for the one-dimensional inverse Stefan Problem, Appl. Math Model. 35 (2011), pp. 4367–4378], the inverse Stefan problem was considered, where only the boundary data is to be reconstructed on the fixed boundary. We extend the MFS proposed in Johansson et al. (2011) and show that the initial condition can also be simultaneously recovered, i.e. the MFS is appropriate for the inverse Cauchy-Stefan problem. Theoretical properties of the method, as well as numerical investigations, are included, showing that accurate results can be efficiently obtained with small computational cost.

Generalized mean field approximation for parallel dynamics of the Ising model

The dynamics of the non-equilibrium Ising model with parallel updates is investigated using a generalized mean field approximation that incorporates multiple two-site correlations at any two time steps, which can be obtained recursively. The proposed method shows significant improvement in predicting local system properties compared to other mean field approximation techniques, particularly in systems with symmetric interactions. Results are also evaluated against those obtained from Monte Carlo simulations. The method is also employed to obtain parameter values for the kinetic inverse Ising modeling problem, where couplings and local field values of a fully connected spin system are inferred from data. © 2014 IOP Publishing Ltd and SISSA Medialab srl.

A survey of methods of numerical approximation to functions

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Generation and performance of localised surface plasmons utilising nano-scale structured multi-layered thin films deposited upon D-shaped optical fiber

A new generation of surface plasmonic optical fibre sensors is fabricated using multiple coatings deposited on a lapped section of a single mode fibre. Post-deposition UV laser irradiation using a phase mask produces a nano-scaled surface relief grating structure, resembling nano-wires. The overall length of the individual corrugations is approximately 14 μm with an average full width half maximum of 100 nm. Evidence is presented to show that these surface structures result from material compaction created by the silicon dioxide and germanium layers in the multi-layered coating and the surface topology is capable of supporting localised surface plasmons. The coating compaction induces a strain gradient into the D-shaped optical fibre that generates an asymmetric periodic refractive index profile which enhances the coupling of the light from the core of the fibre to plasmons on the surface of the coating. Experimental data are presented that show changes in spectral characteristics after UV processing and that the performance of the sensors increases from that of their pre-UV irradiation state. The enhanced performance is illustrated with regards to change in external refractive index and demonstrates high spectral sensitivities in gaseous and aqueous index regimes ranging up to 4000 nm/RIU for wavelength and 800 dB/RIU for intensity. The devices generate surface plasmons over a very large wavelength range, (visible to 2 μm) depending on the polarization state of the illuminating light. © 2013 SPIE.

An ultra-sensitive localised surface plasmon resonance fibre device for environmental sensing based upon a structured bi-metal coating

We demonstrate a bi-metal coating (platinum and gold or silver) localised surface plasmon resonance fibre device that produces an index spectral sensitivity of over 11,000 nm/RIU, yielding an index resolution of 5×10-6in the aqueous index regime, consisting of a structured multi-layered thin film on D-shaped fibre. © 2014 SPIE.

Cardiac induced localised motion of the human torso detected by a long period grating fibre optic sensing scheme

Cardiovascular health of the human population is a major concern for medical clinicians, with cardiovascular diseases responsible for 48% of all deaths worldwide, according to the World Health Organisation. Therefore the development of new practicable and economical diagnostic tools to scrutinise the cardiovascular health of humans is a major driver for clinicians. We offer a new technique to obtain seismocardiographic signals covering both ballistocardiography (below 20Hz) and audible heart sounds (20Hz upwards). The detection scheme is based upon an array of curvature/displacement sensors using fibre optic long period gratings interrogated using a variation of the derivative spectroscopy interrogation technique. © 2014 SPIE.

Hierarchized block wise image approximation by greedy pursuit strategies

An approach for effective implementation of greedy selection methodologies, to approximate an image partitioned into blocks, is proposed. The method is specially designed for approximating partitions on a transformed image. It evolves by selecting, at each iteration step, i) the elements for approximating each of the blocks partitioning the image and ii) the hierarchized sequence in which the blocks are approximated to reach the required global condition on sparsity. © 2013 IEEE.

Hierarchized block wise image approximation by greedy pursuit strategies

An approach for effective implementation of greedy selection methodologies, to approximate an image partitioned into blocks, is proposed. The method is specially designed for approximating partitions on a transformed image. It evolves by selecting, at each iteration step, i) the elements for approximating each of the blocks partitioning the image and ii) the hierarchized sequence in which the blocks are approximated to reach the required global condition on sparsity. © 2013 IEEE.