Project risk management:a combined analytic hierarchy process and decision tree approach

Time, cost and quality achievements on large-scale construction projects are uncertain because of technological constraints, involvement of many stakeholders, long durations, large capital requirements and improper scope definitions. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can effectively be managed with the application of risk management throughout the project life cycle. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively poses the danger of non-achievement of project goals. Moreover, risk analysis of the overall project also poses the danger of developing inappropriate responses. This article demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and decision tree analysis. The entire project is classified to form a few work packages. With the involvement of project stakeholders, risky work packages are identified. As all the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability (using AHP) and severity (guess estimate). Various alternative responses are generated, listing the cost implications of mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis helps to make the right decision in managing risks. In this article, the entire methodology is explained by using a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India. The case study demonstrates the project management effectiveness of using AHP and DTA.

Whole life performance assessment: critical success factors

Whole life costing (WLC) has become the best practice in construction procurement and it is likely to be a major issue in predicting whole life costs of a construction project accurately. However, different expectations from different organizations throughout a project's life and the lack of data, monitoring targets, and long-term interest for many key players are obstacles to be overcome if WLC is to be implemented. A questionnaire survey was undertaken to investigate a set of ten common factors and 188 individual factors. These were grouped into eight critical categories (project scope, time, cost, quality, contract/administration, human resource, risk, and health and safety) by project phase, as perceived by the clients, contractors and subcontractors in order to identify critical success factors for whole life performance assessment (WLPA). Using a relative importance index, the top ten critical factors for each category, from the perspective of project participants, were analyzed and ranked. Their agreement on those categories and factors were analyzed using Spearman's rank correlation. All participants identify “Type of Project” as the most common critical factor in the eight categories for WLPA. Using the relative index ranking technique and weighted average methods, it was found that the most critical individual factors in each category were: “clarity of contract” (scope); “fixed construction period” (time); “precise project budget estimate” (cost); “material quality” (quality); “mutual/trusting relationships” (contract/administration); “leadership/team management” (human resource); and “management of work safety on site” (health and safety). There was relatively a high agreement on these categories among all participants. Obviously, with 80 critical factors of WLPA, there is a stronger positive relationship between client and contactor rather than contractor and subcontractor, client and subcontractor. Putting these critical factors into a criteria matrix can facilitate an initial framework of WLPA in order to aid decision making in the public sector in South Korea for evaluation/selection process of a construction project at the bid stage.

Accommodating energy price volatility in life cycle cost analysis of asphalt pavements

Energy price is related to more than half of the total life cycle cost of asphalt pavements. Furthermore, the fluctuation related to price of energy has been much higher than the general inflation and interest rate. This makes the energy price inflation an important variable that should be addressed when performing life cycle cost (LCC) studies re- garding asphalt pavements. The present value of future costs is highly sensitive to the selected discount rate. Therefore, the choice of the discount rate is the most critical element in LCC analysis during the life time of a project. The objective of the paper is to present a discount rate for asphalt pavement projects as a function of interest rate, general inflation and energy price inflation. The discount rate is defined based on the portion of the energy related costs during the life time of the pavement. Consequently, it can reflect the financial risks related to the energy price in asphalt pavement projects. It is suggested that a discount rate sensitivity analysis for asphalt pavements in Sweden should range between –20 and 30%.

Managing project risk using combined analytic hierarchy process and risk map

The main purpose of the study is to develop an integrated framework for managing project risks by analyzing risk across project, work package and activity levels, and developing responses. Design/methodology/approach: The study first reviews the literature of various contemporary risk management frameworks in order to identify gaps in project risk management knowledge. Then it develops a conceptual risk management framework using combined analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and risk map for managing project risks. The proposed framework has then been applied to a 1500 km oil pipeline construction project in India in order to demonstrate its effectiveness. The concerned project stakeholders were involved through focus group discussions for applying the proposed risk management framework in the project under study. Findings: The combined AHP and risk map approach is very effective to manage project risks across project, work package and activity levels. The risk factors in project level are caused because of external forces such as business environment (e.g. customers, competitors, technological development, politics, socioeconomic environment). The risk factors in work package and activity levels are operational in nature and created due to internal causes such as lack of material and labor productivity, implementation issues, team ineffectiveness, etc. Practical implications: The suggested model can be applied to any complex project and helps manage risk throughout the project life cycle. Originality/value: Both business and operational risks constitute project risks. In one hand, the conventional project risk management frameworks emphasize on managing business risks and often ignore operational risks. On the other hand, the studies that deal with operational risk often do not link them with business risks. However, they need to be addressed in an integrated way as there are a few risks that affect only the specific level. Hence, this study bridges the gaps. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Project financing 8th edition

The eighth edition is a fundamental and essential update to the seventh edition published in 2000. This new edition examines a comprehensive range of existing and newer topics that are relevant to project financing in 2012 and explores current trends in the project finance and leasing industries. Contributors are experienced academics and practitioners. Since the first edition was published, the financial markets have undergone tremendous upheavals and many new structures and instruments have been created to meet the financing needs of business. This edition considers the wider world of project finance, applicable to such diverse situations as venture capital and leveraged buyouts, and using new approaches such as Islamic finance techniques. The eighth edition is an essential and over-due update to the previous edition published in 2000. The eighth edition updates a comprehensive review of financial and related topics which are relevant to project financing in 2012 and explores current trends in financial modelling of a project, risk management and the private finance initiatives. This is a comprehensive and practical book full of advice and tips for successful project financing, including leasing, offering a clear, easy to understand guide to a complex area with examples. The topic coverage is well organized and complete moving from the fundamentals to the more complex issues. There is an extensive glossary to support readers. Finally the use of 12 practitioner case studies brings many of these complex issues to life. This is the new edition of the clear, easy-to-understand industry-standard text on project financing. With a good overview of a broad area and using principles of project financing to explain complex structures, this book includes lots of examples and case studies (including Eurotunnel, Dabhol, multiple Paiton deals and other recent deals along with subsequent developments) to show the concepts in use, examine outcomes and to ensure you understand important issues such as effective project structuring and financing, financial modelling for project valuation, and risk management. Substantially updated and expanded to provide the latest developments in all aspects of project financing. An important manual reference, this book is a must-have for every project financier's desk. The text unites the domain of project financing with a wealth of project management techniques, supported by diagrams and charts and other pictorial features, where appropriate. All these supporting features facilitate a better understanding of the accompanying text for the reader. In many chapters there are diagrams to clarify the specific transaction structure discussed in the accompanying text. These diagrams enable the reader to get a very clear idea of the transaction structure, which is particularly useful where it is complex or unusual. There are also a number of checklists to assist stakeholders in the project and resource management of complex project financings. The new financial modelling chapters allow exploration of some of the pitfalls project models encounter, challenging the accurate replication of the project cash flows for stakeholders to evaluate. In the later new risk management chapters, worked examples are included to illustrate the techniques in practice. The new public private partnership/private finance initiatives chapter introduces readers to this new approach to public projects. References are made to useful websites throughout the text. Cases are included at the end of the main text to encourage examination of real-life examples of project financing in practice and also highlight specific issues of current interest. The book will be helpful to project finance sponsors, lawyers, host governments, bankers and providers of capital

Hierarchical approach to project planning:the case of a petroleum pipeline construction

Projects exposed to an uncertain environment must be adapted to deal with the effective integration of various planning elements and the optimization of project parameters. Time, cost, and quality are the prime objectives of a project that need to be optimized to fulfill the owner's goal. In an uncertain environment, there exist many other conflicting objectives that may also need to be optimized. These objectives are characterized by varying degrees of conflict. Moreover, an uncertain environment also causes several changes in the project plan throughout its life, demanding that the project plan be totally flexible. Goal programming (GP), a multiple criteria decision making technique, offers a good solution for this project planning problem. There the planning problem is considered from the owner's perspective, which leads to classifying the project up to the activity level. GP is applied separately at each level, and the formulated models are integrated through information flow. The flexibility and adaptability of the models lies in the ease of updating the model parameters at the required level through changing priorities and/or constraints and transmitting the information to other levels. The hierarchical model automatically provides integration among various element of planning. The proposed methodology is applied in this paper to plan a petroleum pipeline construction project, and its effectiveness is demonstrated.

Project management system for a concurrent engineering framework

Completing projects faster than normal is always a challenge as it often demands many paradigm shifts. Globalization opportunities and competition from private sectors and multinationals are forcing the management of public sector organizations in India's petroleum industry to take various aggressive strategies to maintain profitability. These projects are required to be completed sooner than with a typical schedule to remain competitive, get faster return on investment and give longer project life.

Estimation of transportation battery second life for use in electricity grid systems

This paper presents research from part of a larger project focusing on the potential development of commercial opportunities for the reuse of batteries on the electricity grid system, subsequent to their primary use in low and ultra-low carbon vehicles, and investigating the life cycle issues surrounding the batteries. The work has three main areas; examination of electric vehicle fleet data in detail to investigate usage in first life. Batteries that have passed through a battery recycler at the end of their first life have been tested within the laboratory to confirm the general assumption that remaining capacity of 80% after use in transportation is a reasonable assumption as a basis for second-life applications. The third aspect of the paper is an investigation of the equivalent usage for three different second-life applications based on connection to the electricity grid. Additionally, the paper estimates the time to cell failure of the batteries within their second-life application to estimate lifespan for use within commercial investigations. © 2014 IEEE.

Modular ESS with second life batteries operating in grid independent mode

This work is part of a bigger project which aims to research the potential development of commercial opportunities for the re-use of batteries after their use in low carbon vehicles on an electricity grid or microgrid system. There are three main revenue streams (peak load lopping on the distribution Network to allow for network re-enforcement deferral, National Grid primary/ secondary/ high frequency response, customer energy management optimization). These incomes streams are dependent on the grid system being present. However, there is additional opportunity to be gained from also using these batteries to provide UPS backup when the grid is no longer present. Most UPS or ESS on the market use new batteries in conjunction with a two level converter interface. This produces a reliable backup solution in the case of loss of mains power, but may be expensive to implement. This paper introduces a modular multilevel cascade converter (MMCC) based ESS using second-life batteries for use on a grid independent industrial plant without any additional onsite generator as a potentially cheaper alternative. The number of modules has been designed for a given reliability target and these modules could be used to minimize/eliminate the output filter. An appropriate strategy to provide voltage and frequency control in a grid independent system is described and simulated under different disturbance conditions such as load switching, fault conditions or a large motor starting. A comparison of the results from the modular topology against a traditional two level converter is provided to prove similar performance criteria. The proposed ESS and control strategy is an acceptable way of providing backup power in the event of loss of grid. Additional financial benefit to the customer may be obtained by using a second life battery in this way.

Reliability estimation of second life battery system power electronic topologies for grid frequency response applications

This paper is part of a project which aims to research the opportunities for the re-use of batteries after their primary use in low and ultra low carbon vehicles on the electricity grid system. One potential revenue stream is to provide primary/secondary/high frequency response to National Grid through market mechanisms via DNO's or Energy service providers. Some commercial battery energy storage systems (BESS) already exist on the grid system, but these tend to use costly new or high performance batteries. Second life batteries should be available at lower cost than new batteries but reliability becomes an important issue as individual batteries may suffer from degraded performance or failure. Therefore converter topology design could be used to influence the overall system reliability. A detailed reliability calculation of different single phase battery-to-grid converter interfacing schemes is presented. A suitable converter topology for robust and reliable BESS is recommended.

The Post-Growth Project:how the end of economic growth could bring a fairer and happier society

This book challenges the assumption that it is bad news when the economy doesn’t grow. For decades, it has been widely recognized that there are ecological limits to continuing economic growth and that different ways of living, working and organizing our economies are urgently required. This urgency has increased since the financial crash of 2007–2008, but mainstream economists and politicians are unable to think differently. The authors of this book demonstrate why our economic system demands ecologically unsustainable growth and the pursuit of more ‘stuff’. They believe that what matters is quality, not quantity – a better life based on having fewer material possessions, less production and less work. Such a way of life will emphasize well‑being, community, security and ‘conviviality’. That is, more real wealth. The book will therefore appeal to everyone curious as to how a new post-growth economics can be conceived and enacted. It will be of particular interest to policy makers, politicians, businesspeople, trade unionists, academics, students, journalists and a wide range of people working in the not-for-profit sector. All of the contributors are leading thinkers on green issues and members of the new think-tank Green House.

FOCUS : frailty management optimisation through EIPAHA commitments and utilisation of stakeholders’ input – an innovative European project in elderly care

The goal of FOCUS, which stands for Frailty Management Optimization through EIPAHA Commitments and Utilization of Stakeholders’ Input, is to reduce the burden of frailty in Europe. The partners are working on advancing knowledge of frailty detection, assessment, and management, including biological, clinical, cognitive and psychosocial markers, in order to change the paradigm of frailty care from acute intervention to prevention. FOCUS partners are working on ways to integrate the best available evidence from frailty-related screening tools, epidemiological and interventional studies into the care of frail people and their quality of life. Frail citizens in Italy, Poland and the UK and their caregivers are being called to express their views and their experiences with treatments and interventions aimed at improving quality of life. The FOCUS Consortium is developing pathways to leverage the knowledge available and to put it in the service of frail citizens. In order to reach out to the broadest audience possible, the FOCUS Platform for Knowledge Exchange and the platform for Scaling Up are being developed with the collaboration of stakeholders. The FOCUS project is a development of the work being done by the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing (EIPAHA), which aims to increase the average healthy lifespan in Europe by 2020 while fostering sustainability of health/social care systems and innovation in Europe. The knowledge and tools developed by the FOCUS project, with input from stakeholders, will be deployed to all EIPAHA participants dealing with frail older citizens to support activities and optimize performance.