Risk-based maintenance model for offshore oil and gas pipelines:a case study

Offshore oil and gas pipelines are vulnerable to environment as any leak and burst in pipelines cause oil/gas spill resulting in huge negative Impacts on marine lives. Breakdown maintenance of these pipelines is also cost-intensive and time-consuming resulting in huge tangible and intangible loss to the pipeline operators. Pipelines health monitoring and integrity analysis have been researched a lot for successful pipeline operations and risk-based maintenance model is one of the outcomes of those researches. This study develops a risk-based maintenance model using a combined multiple-criteria decision-making and weight method for offshore oil and gas pipelines in Thailand with the active participation of experienced executives. The model's effectiveness has been demonstrated through real life application on oil and gas pipelines in the Gulf of Thailand. Practical implications. Risk-based inspection and maintenance methodology is particularly important for oil pipelines system, as any failure in the system will not only affect productivity negatively but also has tremendous negative environmental impact. The proposed model helps the pipelines operators to analyze the health of pipelines dynamically, to select specific inspection and maintenance method for specific section in line with its probability and severity of failure.

Models of gas-liquid solubilities

A recent method for phase equilibria, the AGAPE method, has been used to predict activity coefficients and excess Gibbs energy for binary mixtures with good accuracy. The theory, based on a generalised London potential (GLP), accounts for intermolecular attractive forces. Unlike existing prediction methods, for example UNIFAC, the AGAPE method uses only information derived from accessible experimental data and molecular information for pure components. Presently, the AGAPE method has some limitations, namely that the mixtures must consist of small, non-polar compounds with no hydrogen bonding, at low moderate pressures and at conditions below the critical conditions of the components. Distinction between vapour-liquid equilibria and gas-liquid solubility is rather arbitrary and it seems reasonable to extend these ideas to solubility. The AGAPE model uses a molecular lattice-based mixing rule. By judicious use of computer programs a methodology was created to examine a body of experimental gas-liquid solubility data for gases such as carbon dioxide, propane, n-butane or sulphur hexafluoride which all have critical temperatures a little above 298 K dissolved in benzene, cyclo-hexane and methanol. Within this methodology the value of the GLP as an ab initio combining rule for such solutes in very dilute solutions in a variety of liquids has been tested. Using the GLP as a mixing rule involves the computation of rotationally averaged interactions between the constituent atoms, and new calculations have had to be made to discover the magnitude of the unlike pair interactions. These numbers have been seen as significant in their own right in the context of the behaviour of infinitely-dilute solutions. A method for extending this treatment to "permanent" gases has also been developed. The findings from the GLP method and from the more general AGAPE approach have been examined in the context of other models for gas-liquid solubility, both "classical" and contemporary, in particular those derived from equations-of-state methods and from reference solvent methods.

Energy forward price prediction with a hybrid adaptive model

This paper presents a forecasting technique for forward electricity/gas prices, one day ahead. This technique combines a Kalman filter (KF) and a generalised autoregressive conditional heteroschedasticity (GARCH) model (often used in financial forecasting). The GARCH model is used to compute next value of a time series. The KF updates parameters of the GARCH model when the new observation is available. This technique is applied to real data from the UK energy markets to evaluate its performance. The results show that the forecasting accuracy is improved significantly by using this hybrid model. The methodology can be also applied to forecasting market clearing prices and electricity/gas loads.

Error-correcting codes on a Bethe-like lattice

We analyse Gallager codes by employing a simple mean-field approximation that distorts the model geometry and preserves important interactions between sites. The method naturally recovers the probability propagation decoding algorithm as a minimization of a proper free-energy. We find a thermodynamical phase transition that coincides with information theoretical upper-bounds and explain the practical code performance in terms of the free-energy landscape.

Lattice approach to the dynamics of phase-coded soliton trains

We address the collective dynamics of a soliton train propagating in a medium described by the nonlinear Schrödinger equation. Our approach uses the reduction of train dynamics to the discrete complex Toda chain (CTC) model for the evolution of parameters for each train constituent: such a simplification allows one to carry out an approximate analysis of the dynamics of positions and phases of individual interacting pulses. Here, we employ the CTC model to the problem which has relevance to the field of fibre optics communications where each binary digit of transmitted information is encoded via the phase difference between the two adjacent solitons. Our goal is to elucidate different scenarios of the train distortions and the subsequent information garbling caused solely by the intersoliton interactions. First, we examine how the structure of a given phase pattern affects the initial stage of the train dynamics and explain the general mechanisms for the appearance of unstable collective soliton modes. Then we further discuss the nonlinear regime concentrating on the dependence of the Lax scattering matrix on the input phase distribution; this allows one to classify typical features of the train evolution and determine the distance where the soliton escapes from its slot. In both cases, we demonstrate deep mathematical analogies with the classical theory of crystal lattice dynamics.

Gas distribution in shallow large diameter packed beds

It is important to maintain a uniform distribution of gas and liquid in large diameter packed columns to maintain mass transfer efficiency on scaling up. This work presents measurements and methods of evaluating maldistributed gas flow in packed columns. Little or no previous work has been done in this field. A gas maldistribution number, F, was defined, based on point to point velocity variations in the gas emerging from the top of packed beds. f has a minimum value for a uniformly distributed flow and much larger values for maldistributed flows. A method of testing the quality of vapour distributors is proposed, based on "the variation of f with packed height. A good gas distributor requires a short packed depth to give a good gas distribution. Measurements of gas maldistribution have shown that the principle of dynamic similarity is satisfied if two geometrically similar beds are operated at the same Reynold's number. The validity of f as a good measure of gas maldistribution, and the principle of dynamic similarity are tested statistically by Multi-Factor Analysis of the variance, and visually by the response "surfaces technique. Pressure distribution has been measured in a model of a large diameter packed bed, and shown to be associated with the velocity of the gas in a tangential feed pipe. Two simplified theoretical models are proposed to describe the flow of gases through packed beds and to support the principle of dynamic similarity. These models explain why the packed bed itself causes the flow of gas to become more uniformly distributed. A 1.2m. diameter scaled-down model was constructed geometrically similar to a 7.3m. diameter vacuum crude distillation column. The previously known internal cylinder gas distributor was tested. Three new distributors suitable for use in a large diameter column were developed and tested, these are: Internal Cylinder with Slots and Cross Baffles, Internal Cylinder with Guides in the Annulus, Internal Cylinder with Internal Cross Baffles - It has been shown that this is an excellent distributor.

Application of CFD to model fast pyrolysis of biomass

The article deals with the CFD modelling of fast pyrolysis of biomass in an Entrained Flow Reactor (EFR). The Lagrangian approach is adopted for the particle tracking, while the flow of the inert gas is treated with the standard Eulerian method for gases. The model includes the thermal degradation of biomass to char with simultaneous evolution of gases and tars from a discrete biomass particle. The chemical reactions are represented using a two-stage, semi-global model. The radial distribution of the pyrolysis products is predicted as well as their effect on the particle properties. The convective heat transfer to the surface of the particle is computed using the Ranz-Marshall correlation.

Gas distribution in shallow packed beds

Packed beds have many industrial applications and are increasingly used in the process industries due to their low pressure drop. With the introduction of more efficient packings, novel packing materials (i.e. adsorbents) and new applications (i.e. flue gas desulphurisation); the aspect ratio (height to diameter) of such beds is decreasing. Obtaining uniform gas distribution in such beds is of crucial importance in minimising operating costs and optimising plant performance. Since to some extent a packed bed acts as its own distributor the importance of obtaining uniform gas distribution has increased as aspect ratios (bed height to diameter) decrease. There is no rigorous design method for distributors due to a limited understanding of the fluid flow phenomena and in particular of the effect of the bed base / free fluid interface. This study is based on a combined theoretical and modelling approach. The starting point is the Ergun Equation which is used to determine the pressure drop over a bed where the flow is uni-directional. This equation has been applied in a vectorial form so it can be applied to maldistributed and multi-directional flows and has been realised in the Computational Fluid Dynamics code PHOENICS. The use of this equation and its application has been verified by modelling experimental measurements of maldistributed gas flows, where there is no free fluid / bed base interface. A novel, two-dimensional experiment has been designed to investigate the fluid mechanics of maldistributed gas flows in shallow packed beds. The flow through the outlet of the duct below the bed can be controlled, permitting a rigorous investigation. The results from this apparatus provide useful insights into the fluid mechanics of flow in and around a shallow packed bed and show the critical effect of the bed base. The PHOENICS/vectorial Ergun Equation model has been adapted to model this situation. The model has been improved by the inclusion of spatial voidage variations in the bed and the prescription of a novel bed base boundary condition. This boundary condition is based on the logarithmic law for velocities near walls without restricting the velocity at the bed base to zero and is applied within a turbulence model. The flow in a curved bed section, which is three-dimensional in nature, is examined experimentally. The effect of the walls and the changes in gas direction on the gas flow are shown to be particularly significant. As before, the relative amounts of gas flowing through the bed and duct outlet can be controlled. The model and improved understanding of the underlying physical phenomena form the basis for the development of new distributors and rigorous design methods for them.

Short-term electricity demand and gas price forecasts using wavelet transforms and adaptive models

This paper presents some forecasting techniques for energy demand and price prediction, one day ahead. These techniques combine wavelet transform (WT) with fixed and adaptive machine learning/time series models (multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis functions, linear regression, or GARCH). To create an adaptive model, we use an extended Kalman filter or particle filter to update the parameters continuously on the test set. The adaptive GARCH model is a new contribution, broadening the applicability of GARCH methods. We empirically compared two approaches of combining the WT with prediction models: multicomponent forecasts and direct forecasts. These techniques are applied to large sets of real data (both stationary and non-stationary) from the UK energy markets, so as to provide comparative results that are statistically stronger than those previously reported. The results showed that the forecasting accuracy is significantly improved by using the WT and adaptive models. The best models on the electricity demand/gas price forecast are the adaptive MLP/GARCH with the multicomponent forecast; their MSEs are 0.02314 and 0.15384 respectively.

Flowback of solids through distribution plates of gas fluidized beds and associated phenomena

This work is concerned with a study of certain phenomena related to the performance and design of distributors in gas fluidized beds with particular regard to flowback of solid particles. The work to be described is divided into two parts. I. In Part one, a review of published material pertaining to distribution plates, including details from the patent specifications, has been prepared. After a chapter on the determination of the incipient fluidizing velocity, the following aspects of multi-orifice distributor plates in gas fluidized beds have been studied: (i) The effect of the distributor on bubble formation related to the way in which even distribution of bubbles on the top surface of the fluidized bed is obtained, e.g. the desirable pressure drop ratio ?PD/?PB for the even distribution of gas across the bed. Ratios of distributor pressure drop ?PD to bed pressure drop at which stable fluidization occurs show reasonable agreement with industrial practice. There is evidence that larger diameter beds tend to be less stable than smaller diameter beds when these are operated with shallow beds. Experiments show that in the presence of the bed the distributor pressure drop is reduced relative to the pressure drop without the bed, and this pressure drop in the former condition is regarded as the appropriate parameter for the design of the distributor. (ii) Experimental measurements of bubble distribution at the surface has been used to indicate maldistribution within the bed. Maldistribution is more likely at low gas flow rates and with distributors having large fractional free area characteristics (i.e. with distributors having low pressure drops). Bubble sizes obtained from this study, as well as those of others, have been successfully correlated. The correlation produced implies the existence of a bubble at the surface of an orifice and its growth by the addition of excess gas from the fluidized bed. (iii) For a given solid system, the amount of defluidized particles stagnating on the distributor plate is influenced by the orifice spacing, bed diameter and gas flow rate, but independent of the initial bed height and the way the orifices are arranged on the distributor plate. II. In Part two, solids flowback through single and multi-orifice distributors in two-dimensional and cylindrical beds of solids fluidized with air has been investigated. Distributors equipped with long cylindrical nozzles have also been included in the study. An equation for the prediction of free flowback of solids through multi-orifice distributors has been derived. Under fluidized conditions two regimes of flowback have been differentiated, namely Jumping and weeping. Data in the weeping regime have been successfully correlated. The limiting gas velocity through the distributor orifices at which flowback is completely excluded is found to be indepnndent of bed height, but a function of distributor design and physical properties of gas and solid used. A criterion for the prediction of this velocity has been established. The decisive advantage of increasing the distributor thickness or using nozzles to minimize solids flowback in fluidized beds has been observed and the opportunity taken to explore this poorly studied subject area. It has been noted, probably for the first time, that with long nozzles, there exists a critical nozzle length above which uncontrollable downflow of solids occurs. A theoretical model for predicting the critical length of a bundle of nozzles in terms of gas velocity through the nozzles has been set up. Theoretical calculations compared favourably with experiments.

Studies of the effects of molecular encounters on N.M.R. spin-lattice relaxation times

This thesis is concerned with investigations of the effects of molecular encounters on nuclear magnetic resonance spin-lattice relaxation times, with particular reference to mesitylene in mixtures with cyclohexane and TMS. The purpose of the work was to establish the best theoretical description of T1 and assess whether a recently identified mechanism (buffeting), that influences n.m.r. chemical shifts, governs Tl also. A set of experimental conditions are presented that allow reliable measurements of Tl and the N. O. E. for 1H and 13C using both C. W. and F.T. n.m.r. spectroscopy. Literature data for benzene, cyclohexane and chlorobenzene diluted by CC14 and CS2 are used to show that the Hill theory affords the best estimation of their correlation times but appears to be mass dependent. Evaluation of the T1 of the mesitylene protons indicates that a combined Hill-Bloembergen-Purcell-Pound model gives an accurate estimation of T1; subsequently this was shown to be due to cancellation of errors in the calculated intra and intemolecular components. Three experimental methods for the separation of the intra and intermolecular relaxation times are described. The relaxation times of the 13C proton satellite of neat bezene, 1,4 dioxane and mesitylene were measured. Theoretical analyses of the data allow the calculation of Tl intra. Studies of intermolecular NOE's were found to afford a general method of separating observed T1's into their intra and intermolecular components. The aryl 1H and corresponding 13C T1 values and the NOE for the ring carbon of mesitylene in CC14 and C6H12-TMS have been used in combination to determine T1intra and T1inter. The Hill and B.P.P. models are shown to predict similarly inaccurate values for T1linter. A buffeting contribution to T1inter is proposed which when applied to the BPP model and to the Gutowsky-Woessner expression for T1inter gives an inaccuracy of 12% and 6% respectively with respect to theexperimentally based T1inter.

Ground cracking and frost heaving associated with chilled gas pipeline operations in Britain

This thesis investigates the soil-pipeline interactions associated with the operation of large-diameter chilled gas pipelines in Britain, these are frost/pipe heave and ground cracking. The investigation was biased towards the definition of the mechanism of ground cracking and, the parameters which influence its generation and subsequent development, especially its interaction with frost heave. The study involved a literature review, questionnaire, large-scale test and small-scale laboratory model experiments. The literature review concentrated on soil-pipeline interactions and frost action, with frost/pipe heave often reported but ground cracking was seldom reported. A questionnaire was circulated within British Gas to gain further information on these interactions. The replies indicated that if frost/pipe heave was reported, ground cracking was also likely to be observed. These soil-pipeline interactions were recorded along 19% of pipelines in the survey and were more likely along the larger diameter, higher flow pipelines. A large-scale trial along a 900 mm pipeline was undertaken to assess the soil thermal, hydraulic and stress regimes, together with pipe and ground movements. Results indicated that cracking occurred intermittently along the pipeline during periods of rapid frost/pipe heave and ground movement and, that frozen annulus growth produced a ground surface profile was approximated by a normal probability distribution curve. This curve indicates maximum tensile strain directly over the pipe centre. Finally a small-scale laboratory model was operated to further define the ground cracking mechanism. Ground cracking was observed at small upward ground surface movement, and with continued movement the ground crack increased in width and depth. At the end of the experiments internal soil failure planes slanting upwards and away from the frozen annulus were noted. The suggested mechanism for ground cracking involved frozen annulus growth producing tensile strain in the overlying unfrozen soil, which when sufficient produced a crack.

EEC energy policy and the UK:the Birmingham energy model

This paper examines the implications of the EEC common energy policy for the UK energy sector as represented by a long-term programming model. The model suggests that the UK will be a substantial net exporter of energy in 1985 and will therefore make an important contribution towards the EEC's efforts to meet its import dependency target of 50% or less of gross inland consumption. Furthermore, the UK energy sector could operate within the 1985 EEC energy policy constraints with relatively low extra cost up to the year 2020 (the end of the period covered by the model). The main effect of the constraints would be to bring forward the production of synthetic gas and oil from coal.