A path-dependent contingent-claims approach to capacity investments

This note presents a contingent-claims approach to strategic capacity planning. We develop models for capacity choice and expansion decisions in a single firm environment where investment is irreversible and demand is uncertain. These models illustrate specifically the relevance of path-dependent options analysis to planning capacity investments when the firm adopts demand tracking or average capacity strategies. It is argued that Asian/average type real options can explain hysteresis phenomena in addition to providing superior control of assets in place.

Keeping in step:measuring the effect of promotional investments ensures strategies stay in line with the market

It is an old adage that "you cannot manage what you cannot measure", yet pharmaceutical managers annually commit 30 per cent of turnover to the promotion of their products without measuring the effect of their investment. This unsatisfactory state of affairs has persisted for over 20 years and, judging by comments at the recent Sales Force Effectiveness conference, seems set to continue.

Capital markets and the market structure of foreign investments

Contrary to the long-received theory of FDI, interest rates or rates of return can motivate foreign direct investment (FDI) in concert with the benefits of direct ownership. Thus, access to investor capital and capital markets is a vital component of the multinational’s competitive market structure. Moreover, multinationals can use their superior financial capacity as a competitive advantage in exploiting FDI opportunities in dynamic markets. They can also mitigate higher levels of foreign business risks under dynamic conditions by shifting more financial risk to creditors in the host economy. Furthermore, the investor’s expectation of foreign business risk necessarily commands a risk premium for exposing their equity to foreign market risk. Multinationals can modify the profit maximization strategy of their foreign subsidiaries to maximize growth or profits to generate this risk premium. In this context, we investigate how foreign subsidiaries manage their capital funding, business risk, and profit strategies with a diverse sample of 8,000 matched parents and foreign subsidiary accounts from multiple industries in 38 countries.We find that interest rates, asset prices, and expectations in capital markets have a significant effect on the capital movements of foreign subsidiaries. We also find that foreign subsidiaries mitigate their exposure to foreign business risk by modifying their capital structure and debt maturity. Further, we show how the operating strategy of foreign subsidiaries affects their preference for growth or profit maximization. We further show that superior shareholder value, which is a vital link for access to capital for funding foreign expansion in open market economies, is achieved through maintaining stability in the rate of growth and good asset utilization.

Portfolio diversification and filter rule profits

Previously, it has been shown that the profits from a simple market timing trading rule applied to a portfolio of shares can be affected by the inter-relationships between the returns of the component securities. In this short letter, the results from applying a more sophisticated 'filter' rule to the same data are reported. Unlike the simple trading rule, the filter rule does produce some evidence of economic profits.

The impact of portfolio diversification on trading rule profits:some evidence for UK share portfolios

This paper demonstrates how the autocorrelation structure of UK portfolio returns is linked to dynamic interrelationships among the component securities of that portfolio. Moreover, portfolio return autocorrelation is shown to be an increasing function of the number of securities in the portfolio. Since the security interrelationships seemed to be more a product of their history of non-synchronous trading than of systematic industry-related phenomena, it should not be possible to exploit the high levels of return persistence using trading rules. We show that rules designed to exploit this portfolio autocorrelation structure do not produce economic profits.

Real options and multinational investments : an empirical study of risk, performance and organisational awareness

DUE TO COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SERVICES WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT This thesis is a cross-disciplinary study of the empirical impact of real options theory in the fields of decision sciences and performance management. Borrowing from the economics, strategy and operations research literature, the research examines the risk and performance implications of real options in firms’ strategic investments and multinational operations. An emphasis is placed on the flexibility potential and competitive advantage of multinational corporations to explore the extent to which real options analysis can be classified as best practice in management research. Using a combination of qualitative and quantitative techniques the evidence suggests that, if real options are explored and exploited appropriately, real options management can result in superior performance for multinational companies. The qualitative findings give an overview of the practical advantages and disadvantages of real options and the statistical results reveal that firms which have developed a high awareness of their real options are, as predicted by the theory, able to reduce their downside risk and increase profits through flexibility, organisational slack and multinationality. Although real options awareness does not systematically guarantee higher returns from operations, supplementary findings indicate that firms with evidence of significant investments in the acquisition of real options knowledge tend to outperform competitors which are unaware of their real options. There are three contributions of this research. First, it extends the real options and capacity planning literature to path-dependent contingent-claims analysis to underline the benefits of average type options in capacity allocation. Second, it is thought to be the first to explicitly examine the performance effects of real options on a sample of firms which have developed partial capabilities in real options analysis suggesting that real options diffusion can be key to value creation. Third, it builds a new decision-aiding framework to facilitate the use of real options in projects appraisal and strategic planning.

Liquidity and portfolio optimisation

This thesis presents research within empirical financial economics with focus on liquidity and portfolio optimisation in the stock market. The discussion on liquidity is focused on measurement issues, including TAQ data processing and measurement of systematic liquidity factors (FSO). Furthermore, a framework for treatment of the two topics in combination is provided. The liquidity part of the thesis gives a conceptual background to liquidity and discusses several different approaches to liquidity measurement. It contributes to liquidity measurement by providing detailed guidelines on the data processing needed for applying TAQ data to liquidity research. The main focus, however, is the derivation of systematic liquidity factors. The principal component approach to systematic liquidity measurement is refined by the introduction of moving and expanding estimation windows, allowing for time-varying liquidity co-variances between stocks. Under several liability specifications, this improves the ability to explain stock liquidity and returns, as compared to static window PCA and market average approximations of systematic liquidity. The highest ability to explain stock returns is obtained when using inventory cost as a liquidity measure and a moving window PCA as the systematic liquidity derivation technique. Systematic factors of this setting also have a strong ability in explaining a cross-sectional liquidity variation. Portfolio optimisation in the FSO framework is tested in two empirical studies. These contribute to the assessment of FSO by expanding the applicability to stock indexes and individual stocks, by considering a wide selection of utility function specifications, and by showing explicitly how the full-scale optimum can be identified using either grid search or the heuristic search algorithm of differential evolution. The studies show that relative to mean-variance portfolios, FSO performs well in these settings and that the computational expense can be mitigated dramatically by application of differential evolution.

International business research and risky investments, an analysis of FDI in conflict zones

The purpose of this paper is to examine the determinants of a firm's strategy to invest in a conflict location. To the best of our knowledge, this has not been done before. We examine this using a standard model of international business, overlaid with the fundamental approach to corporate social responsibility. We start with the population of multinationals who have chosen to invest in low income countries with weak institutions. We then split this sample in order to distinguish between firms that have invested in conflict regions compared to those that have not. Our analysis then proceeds to explain the decision of those firms to invest in conflict locations using a simple Probit model. We find that countries with weaker institutions and less concern about corporate social responsibility (CSR) are more likely to invest in conflict regions. Finally, firms with more concentrated ownership are more likely to invest in such locations. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Portfolio analysis

DUE TO COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SERVICES WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT

Integrating skills profiling and purchasing portfolio management:an opportunity for building purchasing capability

Kralijc’s (1983) purchasing portfolio approach holds that different types of purchases need different sourcing strategies, underpinned by distinct sets of resources and practices. The approach is widely deployed in business and extensively researched, and yet little research has been conducted on how knowledge and skills vary across a portfolio of purchases. This study extends the body of knowledge on purchasing portfolio management, and its application in the strategic development of purchasing in an organization, and on human resource management in the purchasing function. A novel approach to profiling purchasing skills is proposed, which is well suited to dynamic environments which require flexibility. In a survey, experienced purchasing personnel described a specific purchase and profiled the skills required for effective performance in purchasing that item. Purchases were categorized according to their importance to the organization (internally-oriented evaluation of cost and production factors) and to the supply market (externally-oriented evaluation of commercial risk and uncertainty). Through cluster analysis three key types of purchase situations were identified. The skills required for effective purchasing vary significantly across the three clusters (for 22 skills, p<0.01). Prior research shows that global organizations use the purchasing portfolio approach to develop sourcing strategies, but also aggregate analyses to inform the design of purchasing arrangements (local vs global) and to develop their improvement plans. Such organizations would also benefit from profiling skills by purchase type. We demonstrate how the survey can be adapted to provide a management tool for global firms seeking to improve procurement capability, flexibility and performance.

Portfolio size, non-trading frequency and portfolio return autocorrelation

In this paper we re-examine the relationship between non-trading frequency and portfolio return autocorrelation. We show that in portfolios where security specific effects have not been completely diversified, portfolio autocorrelation will not increase monotonically with increasing non-trading, as indicated in Lo and MacKinlay (1990). We show that at high levels of non-trading, portfolio autocorrelation will become a decreasing function of non-trading probability and may take negative values. We find that heterogeneity among the means, variances and betas of the component securities in a portfolio can act to increase the induced autocorrelation, particularly in portfolios containing fewer stocks. Security specific effects remain even when the number of securities in the portfolio is far in excess of that considered necessary to diversify security risk. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

Joining the dots:using structured e-portfolio assignments to enhance reflection

Although there has been an increased interest in the use of electronic portfolios in higher education over the last five years, relatively little is known about the potential of such tools to support the development of higher order abilities for students, such as reflection, in a structured way that is suitable for assessment. This paper reports the findings from a small-scale research which sets out to compare the outcomes of reflective assignments in two cohorts of participants in a Postgraduate Certificate in Professional Practice in Higher Education in the UK. Participants in the programme were asked to submit reflective accounts using an e-portfolio system as part of their formal assessment. One cohort completed the assessment using some generic guidelines of how to reflect and construct an e-portfolio page without a given template or structure, whereas another cohort was given a specific template with clear assessment criteria to gauge the assembly of their reflections. The authors, who are also tutors in the programme, analysed the submitted reflections following open coding procedures. The analysis found a tendency for the reflection in the first cohort to be merely descriptive without progressing to speculating objectively about answers to relevant analytical questions about the process involved in the ability under scrutiny. In contrast the assignments of cohort two were found to be more insightful in terms of assimilating random bits of materials, thoughts and self-questions into complete reflective accounts. These findings bring some evidence to support and indeed promote a more structured approach to reflective practice, which can be further enhanced through a carefully created e-portfolio template and associated assessment criteria.