Quantifying simulator discrepancy in discrete-time dynamical simulators

When making predictions with complex simulators it can be important to quantify the various sources of uncertainty. Errors in the structural specification of the simulator, for example due to missing processes or incorrect mathematical specification, can be a major source of uncertainty, but are often ignored. We introduce a methodology for inferring the discrepancy between the simulator and the system in discrete-time dynamical simulators. We assume a structural form for the discrepancy function, and show how to infer the maximum-likelihood parameter estimates using a particle filter embedded within a Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCEM) algorithm. We illustrate the method on a conceptual rainfall-runoff simulator (logSPM) used to model the Abercrombie catchment in Australia. We assess the simulator and discrepancy model on the basis of their predictive performance using proper scoring rules. This article has supplementary material online. © 2011 International Biometric Society.

Determinants of civil society influence:the case of international development and humanitarian NGOs in the Czech Republic and Hungary

Accession to the EU has had ambiguous effects on civil society organizations (CSOs) in the East Central European countries. A general observation is that accession has not led to the systematic empowerment of CSOs in terms of growing influence on national policy making. This article investigates the determinants of successful CSO advocacy by looking at international development and humanitarian NGOs (NGDOs) in the Czech Republic and Hungary. Reforms in the past decade in the Czech Republic have created an international development policy largely in line with NGDO interests, while Hungary’s ministry of foreign affairs seems to have been unresponsive to reform demands from civil society. The article argues that there is clear evidence of NGDO influence in the Czech Republic on international development policy, which is because of the fact that Czech NGDOs have been able solve problems of collective actions, while the Hungarian NGDO sector remains fragmented. They also have relatively stronger capacities, can rely on greater public support and can thus present more legitimate demands towards their government.

International human resource management:review and critique

The research agenda for the field of international human resource management (IHRM) is clear. For a better understanding and to benefit substantially, management scholars must study IHRM in context (Jackson, S.E. and Schuler, R.S. 1995. Understanding human resource management in the context of organizations and their environment. Annual Review of Psychology, 46: 237–264; Geringer, J.M., Frayne, C.A. and Milliman, J.F. 2002. In search of 'best practices' in international human resource management: research design and methodology. Human Resource Management, forthcoming). IHRM should be studied within the context of changing economic and business conditions. The dynamics of both the local/regional and international/global business context in which the firm operates should be given serious consideration. Further, it could be beneficial to study IHRM within the context of the industry and the firm's strategy and its other functional areas and operations. In taking these perspectives, one needs to use multiple levels of analysis when studying IHRM: the external social, political, cultural and economic environment; the industry, the firm, the sub-unit, the group, and the individual. Research in contextual isolation is misleading: it fails to advance understanding in any significant way (Adler, N.J. and Ghadar, E. 1990. Strategic human resource management: a global perspective. Human Resource Management in International Comparison. Berlin: de Gruyter; Locke, R. and Thelen, K. 1995. Apples and oranges revisited: contextualized comparisons and the study of comparative labor politics. Politics & Society, 23, 337–367). In this paper, we attempt to review the existing state of academic work in IHRM and illustrate how it incorporates the content and how it might be expanded to do so.

Strategic and operational risk in an international collaboration agency: a knowledge management solution

The International Cooperation Agency (identified in this article as IDEA) working in Colombia is one of the most important in Colombian society with programs that support gender rights, human rights, justice and peace, scholarships, aboriginal population, youth, afro descendants population, economic development in communities, and environmental development. The identified problem is based on the diversified offer of services, collaboration and social intervention which requires diverse groups of people with multiple agendas, ways to support their mandates, disciplines, and professional competences. Knowledge creation and the growth and sustainability of the organization can be in danger because of a silo culture and the resulting reduced leverage of the separate group capabilities. Organizational memory is generally formed by the tacit knowledge of the organization members, given the value of accumulated experience that this kind of social work implies. Its loss is therefore a strategic and operational risk when most problem interventions rely on direct work in the socio-economic field and living real experiences with communities. The knowledge management solution presented in this article starts first, with the identification of the people and groups concerned and the creation of a knowledge map as a means to strengthen the ties between organizational members; second, by introducing a content management system designed to support the documentation process and knowledge sharing process; and third, introducing a methodology for the adaptation of a Balanced Scorecard based on the knowledge management processes. These three main steps lead to a knowledge management “solution” that has been implemented in the organization, comprising three components: a knowledge management system, training support and promotion of cultural change.

Sustainable development, shock and awe? London 2012 and Civil Society

There is a disconnection between the top-down, elite, nature of sports mega-events and the ostensible redistributive and participatory sustainable development agendas staked out by BINGOs (Business-based International Non-Governmental Organizations) such as the contemporary International Olympic Committee (IOC). Focusing specifically on the London 2012 Summer Olympic and Paralympic Games, we argue that, for all the environmental technology advances offered by sports mega-events, their dominant model remains one of a hollowed-out form of sustainable development. Despite significant technical and methodological innovations in environmental stewardship, the development model of the London Olympics remains predicated on the satisfaction of transnational investment flows. We discuss what this means for claims about the staging of a ‘green’ Olympic Games.

Global electrification:multinational enterprise and international finance in the history of light and power, 1878-2007

William J. Hausman, Peter Hertner, and Mira Wilkins. Global Electrification: Multinational Enterprise and International Finance in the History of Light and Power, 1878–2007. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2008. xxiv + 487 pp. ISBN 978-0-521-88035-0, $80 (hardcover).

CSR and the "underserving":a role for the state, civil society and business?

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how the conceptual lens of corporate social responsibility (CSR), business and civil society can be used to explore “less popular causes” (in this case, a community-based public sector empirical study of initiatives with offenders) and, in particular, respond to the question used by Walzer “In which society can lives be best led?” Design/methodology/approach – This is a formative and summative evaluation study of a National Offender Management “community payback” offender scheme based in the UK using a mixed method, predominantly qualitative approach that integrates theory and practice. Findings – The paper finds that citizenship actions of front-line public sector employees, working in partnership with other agencies in the community, embody the essence of Walzer's notion of CSR and civil society by going beyond the call of duty to provide additional training and moral support for the community offenders. Originality/value – The paper contributes towards an understanding of how CSR and civil society debates can inform wider aspects of public policy and business through its application to areas of society that are perceived to be “challenging” and “undeserving”.

The global audit profession and the international financial architecture:understanding regulatory relationships at a time of financial crisis

This paper explores how regulatory relationships in the global audit arena are being affected by the current financial crisis. Key policy initiatives and debates are analyzed, along with institutional interactions, in particular between the International Federation of Accountants (IFAC), international regulators and the large audit firms. The events are placed in the context of the new international financial architecture which has developed over the last decade. Using the illustrative lens of bank auditing, questions are asked of the nature and status of audit practice and the regulatory arrangements governing such practice. The paper shows the active nature of the regulatory responses to the crisis and the shifting and competing influences among key regulatory and professional participants in the global audit arena. Emphasis is placed on the need for audit researchers to be sensitive to the developing global financial architecture, and its potential implications for the study of audit practice in different national and international contexts.

Measuring information society with linear programming

The measurement of different aspects of information society has been problematic over along time, and the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) is spearheading in developing a single ICT index. In Geneva during the first World Summit on Information Society (WSIS) in December 2003, the heads of states declared their commitment to the importance of benchmarking and measuring progress toward the information society. Consequently, they re-affirmed their Geneva commitments in their second summit held in Tunis in 2005. In this paper, we propose a multiplicative linear programming model to measure Opportunity Index. We also compared our results with the common measure of ICT opportunity index and we found that the two indices are consistent in their measurement of digital opportunity though differences still exist among regions.

Specialist business skills of international students

This paper follows on from that presented at the last BEST conference in Edinburgh (Higson & Hamilton-Jones(2004)). At that stage, the authors outlined their initial research work with students studying on the yearlong International Foundation programmes. at three local FE Colleges allied to Aston University. The research (funded by the University's Teaching Quality Enhancement Funds (TQEF) involved questionnaires and interviews with staff and students (the latter all from overseas). it aimed to identify ways to improve the learning experience of students on the International Foundation programmes, to aid their smooth transition to full degree programmes in Business and Management and to improve the progression rates of such students while studying at Aston. The initial research findings were used to design a module for those students' progress to degree programmes in Aston Business School. This paper discusses how the module was designed, its content and the assessment methods used to help determine whether students are achieving the learning outcomes. The basic principle was to identify areas of study where the International Foundation Programme students needed help in order to improve their learning styles to assist them with the requirements of other modules that they would be studying during their time at Aston. Particular emphasis was put on the need to develop active learners who were not disadvantaged by their lack of awareness of UK culture and society and who were as comfortable performing written work under examination conditions or presenting orally as their UK counterparts. An additional aim was to prepare these students for the placement year which was a compulsory part of their degree. The module, therefore, comprises a range of inputs for a number of staff, a company visit, weekly reflective learning leading to Personal Development Plan (PDP) work, formal examinations, presentations, group work •and individual case studies. This paper also reports on the initial reaction of the students and tutors to the new learning experience with currently 30 participants undertaking the module. Provisional findings suggest that the International Foundation programme has prepared the students well for degree-level work and that as a group of international students they are much more analytical and, after studying the module interactive than their counterparts who have come directly onto Aston degrees. It has shown them still to be quite passive learners, comfortable with facts and lecture-style learning environments, but less comfortable when asked to use their own initiatives. Continuing progress needs to be made in terms of encouraging them to develop a reflective approach to learning with the students taking some time to feel comfortable with an analytical approach to learning. In addition, im account of the students' reactions to having to work through a formal (PDP) and the results of their first assessments will be provided. At Aston, this work is being used as a pilot to recognise good practice with regards to work with further groups of international students. it is hoped that this would have widespread application across the sector.

Hungarian international development cooperation:context, stakeholders and performance

This paper explores the domestic and international context of Hungary's emerging international development policy. Specifically, it looks at three factors that may influence how this policy operates: membership in the European Union (EU) and potential ‘Europeanization’, Hungary's wider foreign policy strategy, and the influence of domestic stakeholders. In order to uncover how these factors affect the country's international development policy, semi-structured interviews were carried out with the main stakeholders. The main conclusions are: (1) While accession to the EU did play a crucial role in restarting Hungary's international development policy, the integration has had little effect since then; (2) international development policy seems to serve mainly Hungary's regional strategic foreign policy and economic interests, and not its global development goals; and (3) although all the domestic development stakeholders are rather weak, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) still seems to play a dominating role. Convergence with European requirements and best practices is, therefore, clearly hindered by foreign policy interests and also by the weakness of non- governmental stakeholders.

Transformation through translation:translation policies at Amnesty International

International non-governmental organisations (NGOs) are powerful political players who aim to influence global society. In order to be effective on a global scale, they must communicate their goals and achievements in different languages. Translation and translation policy play an essential role here. Despite NGOs’ important position in politics and society, not much is known about how these organisations, who often have limited funds available, organise their translation work. This study aims to contribute to Translation Studies, and more specifically to investigating institutional translation, by exploring translation policies at Amnesty International, one of the most successful and powerful human rights NGOs around the world. Translation policy is understood as comprising three components: translation management, translation practices, and translation beliefs, based on Spolsky’s study of language policy (2004). The thesis investigates how translation is organised and what kind of policies different Amnesty offices have in place, and how this is reflected in their translation products. The thesis thus also pursues how translation and translation policy impact on the organisation’s message and voice as it is spread around the world. An ethnographic approach is used for the analysis of various data sets that were collected during fieldwork. These include policy documents, guidelines on writing and translation, recorded interviews, e-mail correspondence, and fieldnotes. The thesis at first explores Amnesty’s global translation policy, and then presents the results of a comparative analysis of local translation policies at two concrete institutions: Amnesty International Language Resource Centre in Paris (AILRC-FR) and Amnesty International Vlaanderen (AIVL). A corpus of English source texts and Dutch (AIVL) and French (AILRC-FR) target texts are analysed. The findings of the analysis of translation policies and of the translation products are then combined to illustrate how translation impacts on Amnesty’s message and voice. The research results show that there are large differences in how translation is organised depending on the local office and the language(s), and that this also influences the way in which Amnesty’s message and voice are represented. For Dutch and French specifically, translation policies and translation products differ considerably. The thesis describes how these differences are often the result of different beliefs and assumptions relating to translation, and that staff members within Amnesty are not aware of the different conceptions of translation that exist within Amnesty International as a formal institution. Organising opportunities where translation can be discussed (meetings, workshops, online platforms) can help in reducing such differences. The thesis concludes by suggesting that an increased awareness of these issues will enable Amnesty to make more effective use of translation in its fight against human rights violations.

[Review of] Ivo Mijnssen, The Quest for an Ideal Youth in Putin’s Russia I. Back to Our Future! History, Modernity and Patriotism According to Nashi, 2005–2012. Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society, Stuttgart: Ibidem Verlag, 2012, 202pp., e 34.90 p/b

THE YOUTH MOVEMENT NASHI (OURS) WAS FOUNDED IN THE SPRING of 2005 against the backdrop of Ukraine’s ‘Orange Revolution’. Its aim was to stabilise Russia’s political system and take back the streets from opposition demonstrators. Personally loyal to Putin and taking its ideological orientation from Surkov’s concept of ‘sovereign democracy’, Nashi has sought to turn the tide on ‘defeatism’ and develop Russian youth into a patriotic new elite that ‘believes in the future of Russia’ (p. 15). Combining a wealth of empirical detail and the application of insights from discourse theory, Ivo Mijnssen analyses the organisation’s development between 2005 and 2012. His analysis focuses on three key moments—the organisation’s foundation, the apogee of its mobilisation around the Bronze Soldier dispute with Estonia, and the 2010 Seliger youth camp—to help understand Nashi’s organisation, purpose and ideational outlook as well as the limitations and challenges it faces. As such,the book is insightful both for those with an interest in post-Soviet Russian youth culture, and for scholars seeking a rounded understanding of the Kremlin’s initiatives to return a sense of identity and purpose to Russian national life.The first chapter, ‘Background and Context’, outlines the conceptual toolkit provided by Ernesto Laclau and Chantal Mouffe to help make sense of developments on the terrain of identity politics. In their terms, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has experienced acute dislocation of its identity. With the tangible loss of great power status, Russian realities have become unfixed from a discourse enabling national life to be constructed, albeit inherently contingently, as meaningful. The lack of a Gramscian hegemonic discourse to provide a unifying national idea was securitised as an existential threat demanding special measures. Accordingly, the identification of those who are ‘notUs’ has been a recurrent theme of Nashi’s discourse and activity. With the victory in World War II held up as a foundational moment, a constitutive other is found in the notion of ‘unusual fascists’. This notion includes not just neo-Nazis, but reflects a chain of equivalence that expands to include a range of perceived enemies of Putin’s consolidation project such as oligarchs and pro-Western liberals.The empirical background is provided by the second chapter, ‘Russia’s Youth, the Orange Revolution, and Nashi’, which traces the emergence of Nashi amid the climate of political instability of 2004 and 2005. A particularly note-worthy aspect of Mijnssen’s work is the inclusion of citations from his interviews with Nashicommissars; the youth movement’s cadres. Although relatively few in number, such insider conversations provide insight into the ethos of Nashi’s organisation and the outlook of those who have pledged their involvement. Besides the discussion of Nashi’s manifesto, the reader thus gains insight into the motivations of some participants and behind-the-scenes details of Nashi’s activities in response to the perceived threat of anti-government protests. The third chapter, ‘Nashi’s Bronze Soldier’, charts Nashi’s role in elevating the removal of a World War II monument from downtown Tallinn into an international dispute over the interpretation of history. The events subsequent to this securitisation of memory are charted in detail, concluding that Nashi’s activities were ultimately unsuccessful as their demands received little official support.The fourth chapter, ‘Seliger: The Foundry of Modernisation’, presents a distinctive feature of Mijnssen’s study, namely his ethnographic account as a participant observer in the Youth International Forum at Seliger. In the early years of the camp (2005–2007), Russian participants received extensive training, including master classes in ‘methods of forestalling mass unrest’ (p. 131), and the camp served to foster a sense of group identity and purpose among activists. After 2009 the event was no longer officially run as a Nashi camp, and its role became that of a forum for the exchange of ideas about innovation, although camp spirit remained a central feature. In 2010 the camp welcomed international attendees for the first time. As one of about 700 international participants in that year the author provides a fascinating account based on fieldwork diaries.Despite the polemical nature of the topic, Mijnssen’s analysis remains even-handed, exemplified in his balanced assessment of the Seliger experience. While he details the frustrations and disappointments of the international participants with regard to the unaccustomed strict camp discipline, organisational and communication failures, and the controlled format of many discussions,he does not neglect to note the camp’s successes in generating a gratifying collective dynamic between the participants, even among the international attendees who spent only a week there.In addition to the useful bibliography, the book is back-ended by two appendices, which provide the reader with important Russian-language primary source materials. The first is Nashi’s ‘Unusual Fascism’ (Neobyknovennyi fashizm) brochure, and the second is the booklet entitled ‘Some Uncomfortable Questions to the Russian Authorities’ (Neskol’ko neudobnykh voprosov rossiiskoivlasti) which was provided to the Seliger 2010 instructors to guide them in responding to probing questions from foreign participants. Given that these are not readily publicly available even now, they constitute a useful resource from the historical perspective.

Women and peace in a divided society:peace-building potentials of feminist advocacy and reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Despite an improving international rhetoric highlighting the necessity of women’s participation in postwar settings, women still tend to be disadvantaged in peace-building processes (Chinkin and Charlesworth, 2006; United Nations, 2002). This chapter argues that women’s struggles for rights entail important potentials for peace-building in divided postwar societies. Women frequently are among the first who cooperate across ethnic divisions established and hardened during ethno-political wars. Feminist policy reforms often strengthen common state structures and their legitimacy, contributing to the overcoming of ethnic divisions. Women’s participation and contributions should, therefore, be much more recognized and promoted in peace-building processes. However, it is feminist advocacy that is key, not women’s participation per se. Women have often promoted nationalistic and violent agendas; yet, only if they champion the rights of women independent of their ethnic and political differences can peace-building potentials come into effect.