On the relationship between Bayesian error bars and the input data density

We investigate the dependence of Bayesian error bars on the distribution of data in input space. For generalized linear regression models we derive an upper bound on the error bars which shows that, in the neighbourhood of the data points, the error bars are substantially reduced from their prior values. For regions of high data density we also show that the contribution to the output variance due to the uncertainty in the weights can exhibit an approximate inverse proportionality to the probability density. Empirical results support these conclusions.

Regression with input-dependent noise: A Gaussian process treatment

Gaussian processes provide natural non-parametric prior distributions over regression functions. In this paper we consider regression problems where there is noise on the output, and the variance of the noise depends on the inputs. If we assume that the noise is a smooth function of the inputs, then it is natural to model the noise variance using a second Gaussian process, in addition to the Gaussian process governing the noise-free output value. We show that prior uncertainty about the parameters controlling both processes can be handled and that the posterior distribution of the noise rate can be sampled from using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Our results on a synthetic data set give a posterior noise variance that well-approximates the true variance.

Regression with input-dependent noise: A Bayesian treatment

In most treatments of the regression problem it is assumed that the distribution of target data can be described by a deterministic function of the inputs, together with additive Gaussian noise having constant variance. The use of maximum likelihood to train such models then corresponds to the minimization of a sum-of-squares error function. In many applications a more realistic model would allow the noise variance itself to depend on the input variables. However, the use of maximum likelihood to train such models would give highly biased results. In this paper we show how a Bayesian treatment can allow for an input-dependent variance while overcoming the bias of maximum likelihood.

A scatterometer neural network sensor model with input noise

The ERS-1 satellite carries a scatterometer which measures the amount of radiation scattered back toward the satellite by the ocean's surface. These measurements can be used to infer wind vectors. The implementation of a neural network based forward model which maps wind vectors to radar backscatter is addressed. Input noise cannot be neglected. To account for this noise, a Bayesian framework is adopted. However, Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling is too computationally expensive. Instead, gradient information is used with a non-linear optimisation algorithm to find the maximum em a posteriori probability values of the unknown variables. The resulting models are shown to compare well with the current operational model when visualised in the target space.

Neural network regression with input uncertainty

It is generally assumed when using Bayesian inference methods for neural networks that the input data contains no noise or corruption. For real-world (errors in variable) problems this is clearly an unsafe assumption. This paper presents a Bayesian neural network framework which allows for input noise given that some model of the noise process exists. In the limit where this noise process is small and symmetric it is shown, using the Laplace approximation, that there is an additional term to the usual Bayesian error bar which depends on the variance of the input noise process. Further, by treating the true (noiseless) input as a hidden variable and sampling this jointly with the network's weights, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, it is demonstrated that it is possible to infer the unbiassed regression over the noiseless input.

A scatterometer neural network sensor model with input noise

The ERS-1 satellite carries a scatterometer which measures the amount of radiation scattered back toward the satellite by the ocean's surface. These measurements can be used to infer wind vectors. The implementation of a neural network based forward model which maps wind vectors to radar backscatter is addressed. Input noise cannot be neglected. To account for this noise, a Bayesian framework is adopted. However, Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling is too computationally expensive. Instead, gradient information is used with a non-linear optimisation algorithm to find the maximum em a posteriori probability values of the unknown variables. The resulting models are shown to compare well with the current operational model when visualised in the target space.

Foreign direct investment and local input linkages in Malaysia

This article examines variations in local input linkages in foreign transnational corporations in Malaysia. The extent to which transnational corporations foster such linkages, particularly in a developing host economy, has become an important issue for policy makers and others concerned with the long-term benefits associated with foreign direct investment. This article employs a unique data set, covering inward investors in the electrical and electronics industry, and analyzes in detail the determinants of variations in local input uses. The article develops a model of local input linkages, based on a transaction-cost framework using firm-specific factors, such as nationality of ownership, the age of the plant and its technology, and the extent to which firms employ locally recruited managers and engineers. In addition, the impacts of various policy measures on local input levels are discussed, and also the importance of the original motivation for investing in Malaysia. The article demonstrates that policy initiatives that target particular outcomes, such as stimulating exports or technology transfer, will result in a greater beneficial impact on the host country economy than more generic subsidies.

Using a group support system to aid input-output identification in DEA

In data envelopment analysis (DEA), operating units are compared on their outputs relative to their inputs. The identification of an appropriate input-output set is of decisive significance if assessment of the relative performance of the units is not to be biased. This paper reports on a novel approach used for identifying a suitable input-output set for assessing central administrative services at universities. A computer-supported group support system was used with an advisory board to enable the analysts to extract information pertaining to the boundaries of the unit of assessment and the corresponding input-output variables. The approach provides for a more comprehensive and less inhibited discussion of input-output variables to inform the DEA model. © 2005 Operational Research Society Ltd. All rights reserved.

Motion, flash, and flicker:A unified spatiotemporal model of perceived edge sharpening

Blurred edges appear sharper in motion than when they are stationary. We proposed a model of this motion sharpening that invokes a local, nonlinear contrast transducer function (Hammett et al, 1998 Vision Research 38 2099-2108). Response saturation in the transducer compresses or 'clips' the input spatial waveform, rendering the edges as sharper. To explain the increasing distortion of drifting edges at higher speeds, the degree of nonlinearity must increase with speed or temporal frequency. A dynamic contrast gain control before the transducer can account for both the speed dependence and approximate contrast invariance of motion sharpening (Hammett et al, 2003 Vision Research, in press). We show here that this model also predicts perceived sharpening of briefly flashed and flickering edges, and we show that the model can account fairly well for experimental data from all three modes of presentation (motion, flash, and flicker). At moderate durations and lower temporal frequencies the gain control attenuates the input signal, thus protecting it from later compression by the transducer. The gain control is somewhat sluggish, and so it suffers both a slow onset, and loss of power at high temporal frequencies. Consequently, brief presentations and high temporal frequencies of drift and flicker are less protected from distortion, and show greater perceptual sharpening.

Carrier lifetime and exciton saturation in a strain-balanced InGaAs/InAsP multiple-quantum-well

The bleaching of the n = 1 heavy-hole and light-hole exciton absorption has been studied at room temperature and zero bias in a strain-balanced InGaAs/InAsP multiple quantum well. Pump-probe spectroscopy was used to measure the decay of the light-hole absorption saturation, giving a hole lifetime of only 280 ps. As only 16 meV separates the light- and heavy-hole bands, the short escape time can be explained by thermalization between these bands followed by thermionic emission over the heavy-hole barrier. The saturation density was estimated to be 1 × 1016 cm-3; this is much lower than expected for tensile-strained wells where both heavy and light holes have large in-plane masses. © 1998 American Institute of Physics.

Simulation and control of a stepping motor

Open-loop operatlon of the stepping motor exploits the inherent advantages of the machine. For near optimum operation: in this mode, however, an accurate system model is required to facilitate controller design. Such a model must be comprehensive and take account of the non-linearities inherent in the system. The result is a complex formulation which can be made manageable with a computational aid. A digital simulation of a hybrid type stepping motor and its associated drive circuit is proposed. The simulation is based upon a block diagram model which includes reasonable approximations to the major non-linearities. The simulation is shown to yield accurate performance predictions. The determination of the transfer functions is based upon the consideration of the physical processes involved rather than upon direct input-outout measurements. The effects of eddy currents, saturation, hysteresis, drive circuit characteristics and non-linear torque displacement characteristics are considered and methods of determining transfer functions, which take account of these effects, are offered. The static torque displacement characteristic is considered in detail and a model is proposed which predicts static torque for any combination of phase currents and shaft position. Methods of predicting the characteristic directly from machine geometry are investigated. Drive circuit design for high efficiency operation is considered and a model of a bipolar, bilevel circuit is proposed. The transfers between stator voltage and stator current and between stator current and air gap flux are complicated by the effects of eddy currents, saturation and hysteresis. Frequency response methods, combined with average inductance measurements, are shown to yield reasonable transfer functions. The modelling procedure and subsequent digital simulation is concluded to be a powerful method of non-linear analysis.

Neural Network Modelling with Input Uncertainty: Theory and Application

It is generally assumed when using Bayesian inference methods for neural networks that the input data contains no noise. For real-world (errors in variable) problems this is clearly an unsafe assumption. This paper presents a Bayesian neural network framework which accounts for input noise provided that a model of the noise process exists. In the limit where the noise process is small and symmetric it is shown, using the Laplace approximation, that this method adds an extra term to the usual Bayesian error bar which depends on the variance of the input noise process. Further, by treating the true (noiseless) input as a hidden variable, and sampling this jointly with the network’s weights, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, it is demonstrated that it is possible to infer the regression over the noiseless input. This leads to the possibility of training an accurate model of a system using less accurate, or more uncertain, data. This is demonstrated on both the, synthetic, noisy sine wave problem and a real problem of inferring the forward model for a satellite radar backscatter system used to predict sea surface wind vectors.