Quantitative risk assessment of groundwater quality utilizing GIS technology and coupled groundwater models

The thesis presents a two-dimensional Risk Assessment Method (RAM) where the assessment of risk to the groundwater resources incorporates both the quantification of the probability of the occurrence of contaminant source terms, as well as the assessment of the resultant impacts. The approach emphasizes the need for a greater dependency on the potential pollution sources, rather than the traditional approach where assessment is based mainly on the intrinsic geo-hydrologic parameters. The risk is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation methods whereby random pollution events were generated to the same distribution as historically occurring events or a priori potential probability distribution. Integrated mathematical models then simulate contaminant concentrations at the predefined monitoring points within the aquifer. The spatial and temporal distributions of the concentrations were calculated from repeated realisations, and the number of times when a user defined concentration magnitude was exceeded is quantified as a risk. The method was setup by integrating MODFLOW-2000, MT3DMS and a FORTRAN coded risk model, and automated, using a DOS batch processing file. GIS software was employed in producing the input files and for the presentation of the results. The functionalities of the method, as well as its sensitivities to the model grid sizes, contaminant loading rates, length of stress periods, and the historical frequencies of occurrence of pollution events were evaluated using hypothetical scenarios and a case study. Chloride-related pollution sources were compiled and used as indicative potential contaminant sources for the case study. At any active model cell, if a random generated number is less than the probability of pollution occurrence, then the risk model will generate synthetic contaminant source term as an input into the transport model. The results of the applications of the method are presented in the form of tables, graphs and spatial maps. Varying the model grid sizes indicates no significant effects on the simulated groundwater head. The simulated frequency of daily occurrence of pollution incidents is also independent of the model dimensions. However, the simulated total contaminant mass generated within the aquifer, and the associated volumetric numerical error appear to increase with the increasing grid sizes. Also, the migration of contaminant plume advances faster with the coarse grid sizes as compared to the finer grid sizes. The number of daily contaminant source terms generated and consequently the total mass of contaminant within the aquifer increases in a non linear proportion to the increasing frequency of occurrence of pollution events. The risk of pollution from a number of sources all occurring by chance together was evaluated, and quantitatively presented as risk maps. This capability to combine the risk to a groundwater feature from numerous potential sources of pollution proved to be a great asset to the method, and a large benefit over the contemporary risk and vulnerability methods.

Foreign direct investment and local input linkages in Malaysia

This article examines variations in local input linkages in foreign transnational corporations in Malaysia. The extent to which transnational corporations foster such linkages, particularly in a developing host economy, has become an important issue for policy makers and others concerned with the long-term benefits associated with foreign direct investment. This article employs a unique data set, covering inward investors in the electrical and electronics industry, and analyzes in detail the determinants of variations in local input uses. The article develops a model of local input linkages, based on a transaction-cost framework using firm-specific factors, such as nationality of ownership, the age of the plant and its technology, and the extent to which firms employ locally recruited managers and engineers. In addition, the impacts of various policy measures on local input levels are discussed, and also the importance of the original motivation for investing in Malaysia. The article demonstrates that policy initiatives that target particular outcomes, such as stimulating exports or technology transfer, will result in a greater beneficial impact on the host country economy than more generic subsidies.

From national innovation systems to national innovation capacity:internationalisation and technology transfer perspectives

The last decade or so has witnessed the emergence of the national innovation system (NIS) phenomenon. Since then, many scholars have investigated NIS and its implementation in different countries. However, there are very few investigations into the relationship between the NIS of a country and its national innovation capacity. This paper aims to make a contribution in this area by examining the link that currently exists between these two topics. Whilst examining this relationship, we also explore internationalisation and technology transfer, being cognate areas that have been investigated during the same period. This follows our assertion that the link between NIS and national innovation capacity is the mechanism of internationalisation and technology transfer. The NIS approach was introduced in the late 1980s (see Freeman, 1987; Dosi et al., 1988) and further elaborated later (see Lundvall, 1992; Nelson, 1993; Edquist, 1997). In essence, a country?s NIS is a historically grown subsystem of the entire national economy consisting of organisations and institutions which play a major role in the innovative activity in the country. In the NIS approach, interactions within organisations as well as the interplay between organisations and institutions are of central importance. The NIS approach has been used to reveal the structure of the innovation processes and the main actors involved in them in industrialised and emerging countries. Although the national focus remains strong, it has been accompanied by studies seeking to analyse the notion of systems of innovation at an international level and at a sub-national scale (Archibugi et al., 1999). Dosi in the edition of Archibugi et al. (1999) argues that the general background of the discussion of national systems is the observation of non-random distributions across countries of: corporate capabilities; organisational forms; strategies; and ultimately revealed performances, in terms of production efficiency and inputs productivities, rates of innovation, rates of adoption/diffusion of innovation themselves, dynamics of market shares on the world markets, growth of income and employment. They also mention that there are several approaches to NIS. Nelson (1993) focuses upon the specificities of national institutions and policies supporting directly or indirectly innovation, diffusion and skills accumulation. Patel and Pavitt (1991) have stressed the links between the national patterns of technological accumulation and the competencies and innovative strategies of a few major national companies. Amable et al (1997) and Soskice (1993) and Zysman (1994) focus on the specifics of national institutions including, for example, the forms of organization, financial and labour markets, training institutions, forms of state intervention in the economy etc. However, the most common reference is by Lundvall (1992) who argues that the focus on the national level is associated with the fact that national economies vary according to their production system and their institutional framework and these differences are in turn strengthened by different historical experiences, language and culture. On the other hand, the national innovation capability consists of abilities to create and carry new technological possibilities through to economic practice. The term covers a wide range of activities from capability to invent to capability to innovate and to capability to improve existing technology beyond the original design parameters (Kim, 1997). The term innovation is often associated by many with technological change at international frontiers. However, technological capability is not the same as innovation capability. Technological capability refers to assimilation, use, adaptation, and change to existing technologies. It also enables the creation of new technologies and development of new products and processes in response to changing economic environments. It denotes operational command over knowledge (Kim, 1997). It is manifested not merely by the knowledge possessed, but, more important, by the uses to which that knowledge can be put and by the proficiency with which it is applied in the activities of investment and production and in the creation of new knowledge (Westphal et al., 1985). Therefore, the analytical framework that is used in this paper is based on the way a country derives from its NIS a national innovation capacity. There are two perspectives that are identified on this way. These are internationalisation and technology transfer. Even though NIS is not directly related to national innovation capacity, to achieve national innovation capacity from NIS, the country should have the ability for technology transfer. Technology transfer is a link between these two phenomena. On the other hand, internationalisation can be either the input or the output of the relationship between NIS and national innovation capability. If a company is investing in a country because of its national innovation capacity, this can be regarded as an input to the relationship between NIS and national innovation capacity. If this company is investigating the national innovation capacity of a country then, for its internationalisation, the national innovation capacity should be important, which in turn means this company is active in innovation and innovation is also an important success factor. The interrelationship between the investment of the company and the NIS of the country (assuming that the country is competent and competitive in technology transfer) will generate and improve that country?s national innovation capacity. This is the output of internationalisation from the relationship between NIS and national innovation capacity. When companies are evaluating whether to internationalise, they investigate certain factors in the countries in which they are considering to invest. The ability to transfer technology is dependent on ability to adopt a new technology and also on the learning derived from this technology. If countries wish to attract innovation related investment they need to show their ability to have a NIS and also the capability to transfer technology. Without the technology transfer capability, the NIS is not functioning. Therefore, companies that internationalise will investigate the factors common to NIS, technology transfer, and their business needs. Through this paper we will demonstrate this link though its mechanisms. Our research will be through extensive literature review and identifying relevant aspects of previous research carried out by the authors. It will investigate certain factors of different countries that are successful in attracting innovation related foreign direct investment. Through these, we will point out the factors that are important for the link and mechanisms of NIS and national innovation capability.

Neural Network Modelling with Input Uncertainty: Theory and Application

It is generally assumed when using Bayesian inference methods for neural networks that the input data contains no noise. For real-world (errors in variable) problems this is clearly an unsafe assumption. This paper presents a Bayesian neural network framework which accounts for input noise provided that a model of the noise process exists. In the limit where the noise process is small and symmetric it is shown, using the Laplace approximation, that this method adds an extra term to the usual Bayesian error bar which depends on the variance of the input noise process. Further, by treating the true (noiseless) input as a hidden variable, and sampling this jointly with the network’s weights, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, it is demonstrated that it is possible to infer the regression over the noiseless input. This leads to the possibility of training an accurate model of a system using less accurate, or more uncertain, data. This is demonstrated on both the, synthetic, noisy sine wave problem and a real problem of inferring the forward model for a satellite radar backscatter system used to predict sea surface wind vectors.

Comparison of frequency symmetric signal generation from a BPSK input using fiber and semiconductor-based nonlinear elements

This letter compares two nonlinear media for simultaneous carrier recovery and generation of frequency symmetric signals from a 42.7-Gb/s nonreturn-to-zero binary phase-shift-keyed input by exploiting four-wave mixing in a semiconductor optical amplifier and a highly nonlinear optical fiber for use in a phase-sensitive amplifier.

Novel input-output prediction approach for biomass pyrolysis

Biomass pyrolysis to bio-oil is one of the promising sustainable fuels. In this work, relation between biomass feedstock element characteristic and pyrolysis process outputs was explored. The element characteristics considered in this study include moisture, ash, fix carbon, volatile matter, carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen, oxygen, and sulphur. A semi-batch fixed bed reactor was used for biomass pyrolysis with heating rate of 30 °C/min from room temperature to 600 °C and the reactor was held at 600 °C for 1 h before cooling down. Constant nitrogen flow rate of 5 L/min was provided for anaerobic condition. Rice husk, Sago biomass and Napier grass were used in the study to form different element characteristic of feedstock by altering mixing ratio. Comparison between each element characteristic to total produced bio-oil yield, aqueous phase bio-oil yield, organic phase bio-oil yield, higher heating value of organic phase bio-oil, and organic bio-oil compounds was conducted. The results demonstrate that process performance is associated with feedstock properties, which can be used as a platform to access the process feedstock element acceptance range to estimate the process outputs. Ultimately, this work evaluated the element acceptance range for proposed biomass pyrolysis technology to integrate alternative biomass species feedstock based on element characteristic to enhance the flexibility of feedstock selection.