Designing a safety management support system using open architecture databases: the requirements of information representation in the support of managers' risk-related decision-making

This research was conducted at the Space Research and Technology Centre o the European Space Agency at Noordvijk in the Netherlands. ESA is an international organisation that brings together a range of scientists, engineers and managers from 14 European member states. The motivation for the work was to enable decision-makers, in a culturally and technologically diverse organisation, to share information for the purpose of making decisions that are well informed about the risk-related aspects of the situations they seek to address. The research examined the use of decision support system DSS) technology to facilitate decision-making of this type. This involved identifying the technology available and its application to risk management. Decision-making is a complex activity that does not lend itself to exact measurement or precise understanding at a detailed level. In view of this, a prototype DSS was developed through which to understand the practical issues to be accommodated and to evaluate alternative approaches to supporting decision-making of this type. The problem of measuring the effect upon the quality of decisions has been approached through expert evaluation of the software developed. The practical orientation of this work was informed by a review of the relevant literature in decision-making, risk management, decision support and information technology. Communication and information technology unite the major the,es of this work. This allows correlation of the interests of the research with European public policy. The principles of communication were also considered in the topic of information visualisation - this emerging technology exploits flexible modes of human computer interaction (HCI) to improve the cognition of complex data. Risk management is itself an area characterised by complexity and risk visualisation is advocated for application in this field of endeavour. The thesis provides recommendations for future work in the fields of decision=making, DSS technology and risk management.

Information geometric measurements of generalisation

Neural networks can be regarded as statistical models, and can be analysed in a Bayesian framework. Generalisation is measured by the performance on independent test data drawn from the same distribution as the training data. Such performance can be quantified by the posterior average of the information divergence between the true and the model distributions. Averaging over the Bayesian posterior guarantees internal coherence; Using information divergence guarantees invariance with respect to representation. The theory generalises the least mean squares theory for linear Gaussian models to general problems of statistical estimation. The main results are: (1)~the ideal optimal estimate is always given by average over the posterior; (2)~the optimal estimate within a computational model is given by the projection of the ideal estimate to the model. This incidentally shows some currently popular methods dealing with hyperpriors are in general unnecessary and misleading. The extension of information divergence to positive normalisable measures reveals a remarkable relation between the dlt dual affine geometry of statistical manifolds and the geometry of the dual pair of Banach spaces Ld and Ldd. It therefore offers conceptual simplification to information geometry. The general conclusion on the issue of evaluating neural network learning rules and other statistical inference methods is that such evaluations are only meaningful under three assumptions: The prior P(p), describing the environment of all the problems; the divergence Dd, specifying the requirement of the task; and the model Q, specifying available computing resources.

Sparse representation for Gaussian process models

We develop an approach for a sparse representation for Gaussian Process (GP) models in order to overcome the limitations of GPs caused by large data sets. The method is based on a combination of a Bayesian online algorithm together with a sequential construction of a relevant subsample of the data which fully specifies the prediction of the model. Experimental results on toy examples and large real-world datasets indicate the efficiency of the approach.

Envisioning innovation : the communication of technological change through graphic representation

Graphic depiction is an established method for academics to present concepts about theories of innovation. These expressions have been adopted by policy-makers, the media and businesses. However, there has been little research on the extent of their usage or effectiveness ex-academia. In addition, innovation theorists have ignored this area of study, despite the communication of information about innovation being acknowledged as a major determinant of success for corporate enterprise. The thesis explores some major themes in the theories of innovation and compares how graphics are used to represent them. The thesis examines the contribution of visual sociology and graphic theory to an investigation of a sample of graphics. The methodological focus is a modified content analysis. The following expressions are explored: check lists, matrices, maps and mapping in the management of innovation; models, flow charts, organisational charts and networks in the innovation process; and curves and cycles in the representation of performance and progress. The main conclusion is that academia is leading the way in usage as well as novelty. The graphic message is switching from prescription to description. The computerisation of graphics has created a major role for the information designer. It is recommended that use of the graphic representation of innovation should be increased in all domains, though it is conceded that its content and execution need to improve, too. Education of graphic 'producers', 'intermediaries' and 'consumers' will play a part in this, as will greater exploration of diversity, novelty and convention. Work has begun to tackle this and suggestions for future research are made.

Representation and parameterisation issues in genetic algorithms

A multi-chromosome GA (Multi-GA) was developed, based upon concepts from the natural world, allowing improved flexibility in a number of areas including representation, genetic operators, their parameter rates and real world multi-dimensional applications. A series of experiments were conducted, comparing the performance of the Multi-GA to a traditional GA on a number of recognised and increasingly complex test optimisation surfaces, with promising results. Further experiments demonstrated the Multi-GA's flexibility through the use of non-binary chromosome representations and its applicability to dynamic parameterisation. A number of alternative and new methods of dynamic parameterisation were investigated, in addition to a new non-binary 'Quotient crossover' mechanism. Finally, the Multi-GA was applied to two real world problems, demonstrating its ability to handle mixed type chromosomes within an individual, the limited use of a chromosome level fitness function, the introduction of new genetic operators for structural self-adaptation and its viability as a serious real world analysis tool. The first problem involved optimum placement of computers within a building, allowing the Multi-GA to use multiple chromosomes with different type representations and different operators in a single individual. The second problem, commonly associated with Geographical Information Systems (GIS), required a spatial analysis location of the optimum number and distribution of retail sites over two different population grids. In applying the Multi-GA, two new genetic operators (addition and deletion) were developed and explored, resulting in the definition of a mechanism for self-modification of genetic material within the Multi-GA structure and a study of this behaviour.

Multi-topic information filtering with a single user profile

In Information Filtering (IF) a user may be interested in several topics in parallel. But IF systems have been built on representational models derived from Information Retrieval and Text Categorization, which assume independence between terms. The linearity of these models results in user profiles that can only represent one topic of interest. We present a methodology that takes into account term dependencies to construct a single profile representation for multiple topics, in the form of a hierarchical term network. We also introduce a series of non-linear functions for evaluating documents against the profile. Initial experiments produced positive results.

The Application of Geographic Information Systems to climate change & land evaluation : a study of the effects of climate change upon crop productivity in a sub-tropical environment

This research investigates the contribution that Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can make to the land suitability process used to determine the effects of a climate change scenario. The research is intended to redress the severe under representation of Developing countries within the literature examining the impacts of climatic change upon crop productivity. The methodology adopts some of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates for regional climate variations, based upon General Circulation Model predictions (GCMs) and applies them to a baseline climate for Bangladesh. Utilising the United Nations Food & Agricultural Organisation's Agro-ecological Zones land suitability methodology and crop yield model, the effects of the scenario upon agricultural productivity on 14 crops are determined. A Geographic Information System (IDRISI) is adopted in order to facilitate the methodology, in conjunction with a specially designed spreadsheet, used to determine the yield and suitability rating for each crop. A simple optimisation routine using the GIS is incorporated to provide an indication of the 'maximum theoretical' yield available to the country, should the most calorifically significant crops be cultivated on each land unit both before and after the climate change scenario. This routine will provide an estimate of the theoretical population supporting capacity of the country, both now and in the future, to assist with planning strategies and research. The research evaluates the utility of this alternative GIS based methodology for the land evaluation process and determines the relative changes in crop yields that may result from changes in temperature, photosynthesis and flooding hazard frequency. In summary, the combination of a GIS and a spreadsheet was successful, the yield prediction model indicates that the application of the climate change scenario will have a deleterious effect upon the yields of the study crops. Any yield reductions will have severe implications for agricultural practices. The optimisation routine suggests that the 'theoretical maximum' population supporting capacity is well in excess of current and future population figures. If this agricultural potential could be realised however, it may provide some amelioration from the effects of climate change.

Recent developments in information retrieval:preface

This paper summarizes the scientific work presented at the 32nd European Conference on Information Retrieval. It demonstrates that information retrieval (IR) as a research area continues to thrive with progress being made in three complementary sub-fields, namely IR theory and formal methods together with indexing and query representation issues, furthermore Web IR as a primary application area and finally research into evaluation methods and metrics. It is the combination of these areas that gives IR its solid scientific foundations. The paper also illustrates that significant progress has been made in other areas of IR. The keynote speakers addressed three such subject fields, social search engines using personalization and recommendation technologies, the renewed interest in applying natural language processing to IR, and multimedia IR as another fast-growing area.

Clustering web documents using hierarchical representation with multi-granularity

Web document cluster analysis plays an important role in information retrieval by organizing large amounts of documents into a small number of meaningful clusters. Traditional web document clustering is based on the Vector Space Model (VSM), which takes into account only two-level (document and term) knowledge granularity but ignores the bridging paragraph granularity. However, this two-level granularity may lead to unsatisfactory clustering results with “false correlation”. In order to deal with the problem, a Hierarchical Representation Model with Multi-granularity (HRMM), which consists of five-layer representation of data and a twophase clustering process is proposed based on granular computing and article structure theory. To deal with the zero-valued similarity problemresulted from the sparse term-paragraphmatrix, an ontology based strategy and a tolerance-rough-set based strategy are introduced into HRMM. By using granular computing, structural knowledge hidden in documents can be more efficiently and effectively captured in HRMM and thus web document clusters with higher quality can be generated. Extensive experiments show that HRMM, HRMM with tolerancerough-set strategy, and HRMM with ontology all outperform VSM and a representative non VSM-based algorithm, WFP, significantly in terms of the F-Score.

LRD : Latent Relation Discovery for vector space expansion and information retrieval

In this paper, we propose a text mining method called LRD (latent relation discovery), which extends the traditional vector space model of document representation in order to improve information retrieval (IR) on documents and document clustering. Our LRD method extracts terms and entities, such as person, organization, or project names, and discovers relationships between them by taking into account their co-occurrence in textual corpora. Given a target entity, LRD discovers other entities closely related to the target effectively and efficiently. With respect to such relatedness, a measure of relation strength between entities is defined. LRD uses relation strength to enhance the vector space model, and uses the enhanced vector space model for query based IR on documents and clustering documents in order to discover complex relationships among terms and entities. Our experiments on a standard dataset for query based IR shows that our LRD method performed significantly better than traditional vector space model and other five standard statistical methods for vector expansion.

Immune-inspired adaptive information filtering

Adaptive information filtering is a challenging research problem. It requires the adaptation of a representation of a user’s multiple interests to various changes in them. We investigate the application of an immune-inspired approach to this problem. Nootropia, is a user profiling model that has many properties in common with computational models of the immune system that have been based on Franscisco Varela’s work. In this paper we concentrate on Nootropia’s evaluation. We define an evaluation methodology that uses virtual user’s to simulate various interest changes. The results show that Nootropia exhibits the desirable adaptive behaviour.

Building and applying a concept hierarchy representation of a user profile

Term dependence is a natural consequence of language use. Its successful representation has been a long standing goal for Information Retrieval research. We present a methodology for the construction of a concept hierarchy that takes into account the three basic dimensions of term dependence. We also introduce a document evaluation function that allows the use of the concept hierarchy as a user profile for Information Filtering. Initial experimental results indicate that this is a promising approach for incorporating term dependence in the way documents are filtered.

Sparse image representation with encryption

In this thesis we present an overview of sparse approximations of grey level images. The sparse representations are realized by classic, Matching Pursuit (MP) based, greedy selection strategies. One such technique, termed Orthogonal Matching Pursuit (OMP), is shown to be suitable for producing sparse approximations of images, if they are processed in small blocks. When the blocks are enlarged, the proposed Self Projected Matching Pursuit (SPMP) algorithm, successfully renders equivalent results to OMP. A simple coding algorithm is then proposed to store these sparse approximations. This is shown, under certain conditions, to be competitive with JPEG2000 image compression standard. An application termed image folding, which partially secures the approximated images is then proposed. This is extended to produce a self contained folded image, containing all the information required to perform image recovery. Finally a modified OMP selection technique is applied to produce sparse approximations of Red Green Blue (RGB) images. These RGB approximations are then folded with the self contained approach.

Three-dimensional capture, representation, and manipulation of Cuneiform tablets

This paper presents the digital imaging results of a collaborative research project working toward the generation of an on-line interactive digital image database of signs from ancient cuneiform tablets. An important aim of this project is the application of forensic analysis to the cuneiform symbols to identify scribal hands. Cuneiform tablets are amongst the earliest records of written communication, and could be considered as one of the original information technologies; an accessible, portable and robust medium for communication across distance and time. The earliest examples are up to 5,000 years old, and the writing technique remained in use for some 3,000 years. Unfortunately, only a small fraction of these tablets can be made available for display in museums and much important academic work has yet to be performed on the very large numbers of tablets to which there is necessarily restricted access. Our paper will describe the challenges encountered in the 2D image capture of a sample set of tablets held in the British Museum, explaining the motivation for attempting 3D imaging and the results of initial experiments scanning the smaller, more densely inscribed cuneiform tablets. We will also discuss the tractability of 3D digital capture, representation and manipulation, and investigate the requirements for scaleable data compression and transmission methods. Additional information can be found on the project website: www.cuneiform.net

Representation of some class of time frequency distributions towards their determination through remote sensing techniques

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