Quantitative risk assessment of groundwater quality utilizing GIS technology and coupled groundwater models

The thesis presents a two-dimensional Risk Assessment Method (RAM) where the assessment of risk to the groundwater resources incorporates both the quantification of the probability of the occurrence of contaminant source terms, as well as the assessment of the resultant impacts. The approach emphasizes the need for a greater dependency on the potential pollution sources, rather than the traditional approach where assessment is based mainly on the intrinsic geo-hydrologic parameters. The risk is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation methods whereby random pollution events were generated to the same distribution as historically occurring events or a priori potential probability distribution. Integrated mathematical models then simulate contaminant concentrations at the predefined monitoring points within the aquifer. The spatial and temporal distributions of the concentrations were calculated from repeated realisations, and the number of times when a user defined concentration magnitude was exceeded is quantified as a risk. The method was setup by integrating MODFLOW-2000, MT3DMS and a FORTRAN coded risk model, and automated, using a DOS batch processing file. GIS software was employed in producing the input files and for the presentation of the results. The functionalities of the method, as well as its sensitivities to the model grid sizes, contaminant loading rates, length of stress periods, and the historical frequencies of occurrence of pollution events were evaluated using hypothetical scenarios and a case study. Chloride-related pollution sources were compiled and used as indicative potential contaminant sources for the case study. At any active model cell, if a random generated number is less than the probability of pollution occurrence, then the risk model will generate synthetic contaminant source term as an input into the transport model. The results of the applications of the method are presented in the form of tables, graphs and spatial maps. Varying the model grid sizes indicates no significant effects on the simulated groundwater head. The simulated frequency of daily occurrence of pollution incidents is also independent of the model dimensions. However, the simulated total contaminant mass generated within the aquifer, and the associated volumetric numerical error appear to increase with the increasing grid sizes. Also, the migration of contaminant plume advances faster with the coarse grid sizes as compared to the finer grid sizes. The number of daily contaminant source terms generated and consequently the total mass of contaminant within the aquifer increases in a non linear proportion to the increasing frequency of occurrence of pollution events. The risk of pollution from a number of sources all occurring by chance together was evaluated, and quantitatively presented as risk maps. This capability to combine the risk to a groundwater feature from numerous potential sources of pollution proved to be a great asset to the method, and a large benefit over the contemporary risk and vulnerability methods.

Hand somatosensory subcortical and cortical sources assessed by functional source separation:an EEG study

We propose a novel electroencephalographic application of a recently developed cerebral source extraction method (Functional Source Separation, FSS), which starts from extracranial signals and adds a functional constraint to the cost function of a basic independent component analysis model without requiring solutions to be independent. Five ad-hoc functional constraints were used to extract the activity reflecting the temporal sequence of sensory information processing along the somatosensory pathway in response to the separate left and right median nerve galvanic stimulation. Constraints required only the maximization of the responsiveness at specific latencies following sensory stimulation, without taking into account that any frequency or spatial information. After source extraction, the reliability of identified FS was assessed based on the position of single dipoles fitted on its retroprojected signals and on a discrepancy measure. The FS positions were consistent with previously reported data (two early subcortical sources localized in the brain stem and thalamus, the three later sources in cortical areas), leaving negligible residual activity at the corresponding latencies. The high-frequency component of the oscillatory activity (HFO) of the extracted component was analyzed. The integrity of the low amplitude HFOs was preserved for each FS. On the basis of our data, we suggest that FSS can be an effective tool to investigate the HFO behavior of the different neuronal pools, recruited at successive times after median nerve galvanic stimulation. As FSs are reconstructed along the entire experimental session, directional and dynamic HFO synchronization phenomena can be studied.

Development of a conceptual model of the soil-moisture-plant sub-system of the hydrological cycle

The soil-plant-moisture subsystem is an important component of the hydrological cycle. Over the last 20 or so years a number of computer models of varying complexity have represented this subsystem with differing degrees of success. The aim of this present work has been to improve and extend an existing model. The new model is less site specific thus allowing for the simulation of a wide range of soil types and profiles. Several processes, not included in the original model, are simulated by the inclusion of new algorithms, including: macropore flow; hysteresis and plant growth. Changes have also been made to the infiltration, water uptake and water flow algorithms. Using field data from various sources, regression equations have been derived which relate parameters in the suction-conductivity-moisture content relationships to easily measured soil properties such as particle-size distribution data. Independent tests have been performed on laboratory data produced by Hedges (1989). The parameters found by regression for the suction relationships were then used in equations describing the infiltration and macropore processes. An extensive literature review produced a new model for calculating plant growth from actual transpiration, which was itself partly determined by the root densities and leaf area indices derived by the plant growth model. The new infiltration model uses intensity/duration curves to disaggregate daily rainfall inputs into hourly amounts. The final model has been calibrated and tested against field data, and its performance compared to that of the original model. Simulations have also been carried out to investigate the effects of various parameters on infiltration, macropore flow, actual transpiration and plant growth. Qualitatively comparisons have been made between these results and data given in the literature.

Language independent on-off voice over IP source model with lognormal transitions

The recent explosive growth of voice over IP (VoIP) solutions calls for accurate modelling of VoIP traffic. This study presents measurements of ON and OFF periods of VoIP activity from a significantly large database of VoIP call recordings consisting of native speakers speaking in some of the world's most widely spoken languages. The impact of the languages and the varying dynamics of caller interaction on the ON and OFF period statistics are assessed. It is observed that speaker interactions dominate over language dependence which makes monologue-based data unreliable for traffic modelling. The authors derive a semi-Markov model which accurately reproduces the statistics of composite dialogue measurements. © The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2013.

Tensile properties of as fabricated, aged, and stretched SiC whisker and particle reinforced 2009 aluminium alloy

Tensile tests were carried out using specimens of 2009 aluminium alloy reinforced by either SiC whiskers or particles. The size distributions of the whiskers and particles in the matrix were obtained by image analysis. It was found that failure was a result of uniform void nucleation and coalescence in the as fabricated composites, or a result of fast crack propagation initiated by a flaw developed at clusters of SiC in the aged or stretched and aged composites. The strengths of the as fabricated composites were estimated based on the results of image analysis using continuum mechanics and dislocation theories. The estimation indicated that the tensile strengths are largely contributed to by composite strengthening, supplemented by residual dislocation strengthening and work hardening. Owing to the flaw controlled failure, the tensile strengths of the aged or stretched and aged composites were independent of aging time, aging temperature, and the amount of stretching. The elastic moduli of the composites were estimated using the Halpin-Tsai model and a good correlation was found between the measured and estimated moduli. © 1996 The Institute of Materials.