Inflation forecasting, relative price variability and skewness

This article presents out-of-sample inflation forecasting results based on relative price variability and skewness. It is demonstrated that forecasts on long horizons of 1.5-2 years are significantly improved if the forecast equation is augmented with skewness. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.

The fallacy of integration:work and non-work in professional services

Many organisations are encouraging their staff to integrate work and non-work, but a qualitative study of young professionals found that many crave greater segregation rather than more integration. Most wished to build boundaries to separate the two and simplify a complex world. Where working practices render traditional boundaries of time and space ineffective, this population seems to create new idiosyncratic boundaries to segregate work from non-work. These idiosyncratic boundaries depended on age, culture and life-stage though for most of this population there was no appreciable gender difference in attitudes to segregating work and non-work. Gender differences only became noticeable for parents. A matrix defining the dimensions to these boundaries is proposed that may advance understanding of how individuals separate their work and personal lives. In turn, this may facilitate the development of policies and practices to integrate work and non-work that meet individual as well as organisational needs.

Momentum profits in alternative stock market structures

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between momentum profitability and the stock market trading mechanism and is motivated by recent changes to the trading systems that have taken place on the London Stock Exchange. Since 1975 the London stock market has employed three different trading systems: a floor based system, a computerized dealer system called SEAQ and the automated auction system SETS. Since each new trading system has reduced the level of execution costs, one might expect, a priori, the magnitude of momentum profits to decline with each amendment to the trading system. However, the opposite empirical result is found showing that shares trading on the automated system generate higher momentum profits than those trading on the floor system and companies trading on the SETS system display greater momentum profitability than those trading on SEAQ. Our empirical results concur with the theoretical findings of the trader’s hesitation model of Du [Du, J., 2002. Heterogeneity in investor confidence and asset market under- and overreaction. Working paper] and the empirical findings of Arena et al. [Arena, M., Haggard, S., Yan, X., Price momentum and idiosyncratic volatility. Financial Review, in press].

Sharpening the edge of market driven intangibles and innovations

A review of the extant literature concludes that market-driven intangibles and innovations are increasingly considered to be the most critical firm-specific resources, but also finds a lack of elaboration of which types of these resources are most important. In this paper, we incorporate these observations into a conceptual model and link it to highly developed institutional settings for the model evaluation. From the point of view of firm revenue management, we can anticipate that performance advantages created through deployment of intellectual and relational capital in marketing and innovation are more likely to be superior. In essence, they constitute the integration of organisational intangibles both in cognitive and behavioural level to create an idiosyncratic combination for each firm. Our research findings show feasible paths for sharpening the edge of market-driven intangibles and innovations. We discuss the key results for research and practice.

An examination of the management of Russian civil society

This thesis begins by examining the concepts of civil society and social capital. Specifically, it outlines the role of health and education third sector organisations (TSOs) in building civil society and generating social capital which is conducive to democratisation. Following this, the thesis presents literature on civil society development in the context of the Russian Federation, highlighting a void in our understanding of health and education TSOs in this context. The literature review examines cultural-historic antecedents and their impact on civil society development. These antecedents result in three constraints which limit TSOs ability to establish civil society as an autonomous space. In light of these constraints, the thesis explores the present day realities faced by Russian TSOs and proposes that the all-dominant nature of the Russian state leads to managed civil society arrangements. Consequently the thesis addresses the question of how a managed civil society manifests itself in the context of the Russian Federation. Using a qualitative research design, the thesis investigates the control mechanisms created by legislative framework, the ability of third sector organisations to substitute for the state, and the organisational characteristics of TSOs within a managed civil society space. Based on interview data from 82 TSOs across three geographical regions, the empirical chapters explore these three aspects in-depth. Firstly, the thesis demonstrates how a specific legislative framework is used as a legally mandated method to manage civil society. Secondly, the thesis explores more subtle attempts by the state to manage civil society. And thirdly, the thesis highlights ways in which the state controls TSOs and coerces them to mimic marionette organisations. Overall, the evidence presented throughout the thesis highlights the idiosyncratic nature of managed civil society arrangements in Russia in which the state is able to control and direct civil society

The development of a market orientation in a turbulent, transitional environment:the case of Ukraine

This research is concerned with the case of Ukraine where there has been a fundamental change in the economic environment engendered by the transition from a centrally planned to a market economy and the resulting conditions of economic crisis. The way that Ukrainian marketers and consumers are reacting to this environmental change is the principal concern of the research together with the basic linkages between critical environmental elements and strategic marketing decisions. This research analyses the way in which marketing evolves in a turbulent, transitional environment. The study is based on eight case analyses within the retail sector of the Ukrainian market. The process of transition to a free market economy leads a researcher to question the validity of existing theories that have been based on empirical data that has been collected in the stable marketing environment of the West. For this reason an in-depth, theory building methodology is preferred. A number of broad research objectives were set. Firstly, to establish whether the sales - production - marketing stages model of marketing evolution, derived from empirical data collected in stable Western environments, is relevant in the context of the turbulent, transitional environment of Ukraine. Secondly, to establish if, in this turbulent, transitional environment, idiosyncratic approaches to marketing are emerging and thirdly to assess the development of attitudes to marketing, organisation for marketing and the development of marketing strategy in Ukraine. The main conclusions of this thesis are firstly, that the stages model of marketing orientation is not relevant in the context of Ukraine, secondly that there are idiosyncratic approaches to marketing emerging in the turbulent, transitional environment of Ukraine and finally that the above developments have a profound impact on the development of attitudes to marketing, organisation for marketing and the development of marketing strategy in Ukraine.

Computer based monitoring in U.K. service organizations : a comparative study

The majority of the literature about CBM is American in origin, and (inter alia) notes that there were differing uses of similar technology, indicating that context has an important role to play in the use of CBM. The literature maps the psychological effects of CBM in considerable detail, but only two published studies examine the context of CBM. These grounded results provide scant support for any systematic, quantitative, large scale analysis of computer based monitoring in the UK context. This thesis thus aims to systemically examine the context of CBM using discourse analysis. Forty four interviewees were theoretically sampled using a structured sample technique in four organizations. All were national or multinational enterprises. The interviews were semi structured in nature and divided into three sections. The first addressed the respondents' thoughts and perceptions about CBM, the second elicited talk about the departmental context (focusing the management - worker relationship), and the final section addressed the organizational context. The cases demonstrated variation in the use of CBM, measured according to the criteria of Westin (1987, 1988) and according to the interpretive repertoires used by the respondents in each case. Seven analytical categories of talk emerged from the data: three at the organizational level and four at the departmental level of analysis. Discourse analysis revealed two discrete interpretive repertories - the procedural and the substantive repertoires - in respondents' talk whose main variation occurred at the departmental level of analysis. Furthermore, patterns were found in the use of these repertories within cases and between categories. Between the cases, variation in the use of the repertories matched the between case variation according to the criteria of Westin. It would thus appear that the source of variation in the use of CBM lies in its context, more specifically in the relative emphasis of humanistic, interpersonal and idiosyncratic values within the management worker relationship.

A study of the effects of orally administered female hormones on the volume and composition of lacrimal fluid related to the toleration of corneal contact lenses

This study was designed to evaluate the effects of certain orally active contraceptive steroids on the eye, related to the tolerance of a corneal contact lens. An oestrogen, ethinyloestradiol BP. 0.05 mg, a progestogen, norethisterone acetate BP. 2.50 mg and a control tablet (vitamin C, 50 mg) were utilised. The effect of these preparations on corneal curvature, lacrimal fluid volume and protein composition and directly on corneal lens tolerance was monitored in a group of 23 volunteer patients. The progestogen was found to produce a significant (P≥ 0.05) decrease in tear volume as measured by a 3 minute Schirmer test. A smaller volume reduction was observed with ethinyloestradiol. A normal cornea appears unaffected, within the measurement limits available, by the use of either hormone. However, in the presence of a corneal lens, oestrogen was found to induce substantial corneal steepening, indicative of tissue oedema, during the initial 2-3 weeks of medication. Progestogen occasionally produced a similar effect, which could recur with either hormone shortly after the end of the treatment period. A new method of acrylamide gel electrophoresis was developed for examination of the protein concentration and composition of lacrimal fluid. This allowed much greater resolution of microquantities of unconcentrated fluid than anything previously reported. Quantitation by densitometry has permitted the recording of medication and lens-induced changes in the protein pattern. Tear albumin has been shown to differ from serum albumin and to consist of up to 3 subfractions, 7 further protein fractions may also be resolved. The concentration and probable origin of these proteins have been established and the overall effects of hormone administration described. Individual idiosyncratic responses are also discussed. The study has established tbenature of some effects of contraceptive steroids on the anterior eye, and the probable reasons for resultant corneal lens intolerance.

Calcitonin and calcitonin receptor-like receptors:common themes with family B GPCRs?

The calcitonin receptor (CTR) and calcitonin receptor-like receptor (CLR) are two of the 15 human family B (or Secretin-like) GPCRs. CTR and CLR are of considerable biological interest as their pharmacology is moulded by interactions with receptor activity-modifying proteins. They also have therapeutic relevance for many conditions, such as osteoporosis, diabetes, obesity, lymphatic insufficiency, migraine and cardiovascular disease. In light of recent advances in understanding ligand docking and receptor activation in both the family as a whole and in CLR and CTR specifically, this review reflects how applicable general family B GPCR themes are to these two idiosyncratic receptors. We review the main functional domains of the receptors; the N-terminal extracellular domain, the juxtamembrane domain and ligand interface, the transmembrane domain and the intracellular C-terminal domain. Structural and functional findings from the CLR and CTR along with other family B GPCRs are critically appraised to gain insight into how these domains may function. The ability for CTR and CLR to interact with receptor activity-modifying proteins adds another level of sophistication to these receptor systems but means careful consideration is needed when trying to apply generic GPCR principles. This review encapsulates current thinking in the realm of family B GPCR research by highlighting both conflicting and recurring themes and how such findings relate to two unusual but important receptors, CTR and CLR.

Using empirical evidence of variations in worker performance to extend the capabilities of discrete event simulations in manufacturing

Discrete event simulation of manufacturing systems has become widely accepted as an important tool to aid the design of such systems. Often, however, it is applied by practitioners in a manner which largely ignores an important element of industry; namely, the workforce. Workers are usually represented as simple resources, often with deterministic performance values. This approach ignores the potentially large effect that human performance variation can have on a system. A long-term data collection exercise is described with the aim of quantifying the performance variation of workers in a typical automotive assembly plant. The data are presented in a histogram form which is immediately usable in simulations to improve the accuracy of design assessment. The results show levels of skewness and range which are far larger than anticipated by current researchers and practitioners in the field.

Why do firms invest in consumer advertising with limited sales response? A shareholder perspective

Marketing managers increasingly recognize the need to measure and communicate the impact of their actions on shareholder returns. This study focuses on the shareholder value effects of pharmaceutical direct-to-consumer advertising (DTCA) and direct-to-physician (DTP) marketing efforts. Although DTCA has moderate effects on brand sales and market share, companies invest vast amounts of money in it. Relying on Kalman filtering, the authors develop a methodology to assess the effects from DTCA and DTP on three components of shareholder value: stock return, systematic risk, and idiosyncratic risk. Investors value DTCA positively because it leads to higher stock returns and lower systematic risk. Furthermore, DTCA increases idiosyncratic risk, which does not affect investors who maintain well-diversified portfolios. In contrast, DTP marketing has modest positive effects on stock returns and idiosyncratic risk. The outcomes indicate that evaluations of marketing expenditures should include a consideration of the effects of marketing on multiple stakeholders, not just the sales effects on consumers.

Margetinggeschichte:Die Genese einer modernen Sozialtechnik, Hartmut Berghoff

Book revew: Marketinggeschichte: die Genese einer modernen Sozialtechnik [Marketing history: The genesis of a modern social technique], edited by Hartmut Berghoff, Frankfurt/Main, Campus Verlag, 2007, 409 pp., illus., [euro]30.00 (paperback), ISBN 978-3-593-38323-1. This edited volume is the result of a workshop at Göttingen University in 2006 and combines a number of different approaches to the research into the history of marketing in Germany's economy and society. The majority of contributions loosely focus around the occurrence of a ‘marketing revolution’ in the 1970s, which ties in with interpretations of the Americanisation of German business. This revolution replaced the indigenous German idea of Absatzwirtschaft (the economics of sales) with the American-influenced idea of Marketing, which was less functionally oriented and more strategic, and which aimed to connect processes within the firm in order to allow a greater focus on the consumer. The entire volume is framed by Hartmut Berghoff's substantial and informative introduction, which introduces a number of actors and trends beyond the content of the volume. Throughout the various contributions, authors provide explanations of the timing and nature of marketing revolutions. Alexander Engel identifies an earlier revolution in the marketing of dyes, which undergoes major change with the emergence of chemical dyes. While the natural dyestuff had been a commodity, with producers removed from consumers via a global network of traders, chemical dyes were products and were branded at an early stage. This was a fundamental change in the nature of production and sales. As Roman Rossfeld shows in his contribution on the Swiss chocolate industry (which focuses almost exclusively on Suchard), even companies that produced non-essential consumer goods which had always required some measure of labelling grappled for years with the need to develop fewer and higher impact brands, as well as an efficient sales operation. A good example for the classical ‘marketing revolution’ of the 1970s is the German automobile industry. Ingo Köhler convincingly argues that the crisis situation of German car manufacturers – the change from a seller's to a buyer's market, appreciation of the German mark which undermines exports, the oil crises coupled with higher inflation and greater frugality of consumers and the emergence of new competitors – lead companies to refocus from production to the demands of the consumer. While he highlights the role of Ford in responding most rapidly to these problems, he does not address whether the multinational was potentially transferring American knowledge to the German market. Similarly, Paul Erker illustrates that a marketing revolution in transport and logistics happened much later, because the market remained highly regulated until the 1980s. Both Paul Erker and Uwe Spiekermann in their contribution, present comparisons of two different sectors or companies (the tire manufacturer Continental and the logistics company Dachser, and agriculture and trade, respectively). In both cases, however, it remains unclear why these examples were chosen for comparison, as both seem to have little in common and are not always effectively used to demonstrate differences. The weakest section of the book is the development of marketing as an academic discipline. The attempt at sketching the phases in the evolution of marketing as an academic discipline by Ursula Hansen and Matthias Bode opens with an undergraduate-level explanation on the methodology of historical periodisation that seems extraneous. Considerably stronger is the section on the wider societal impact of marketing, and Anja Kruke shows how the new techniques of opinion research was accepted by politics and business – surprisingly more readily by politicians than their commercial counterparts. In terms of contemporary personalities, Hans Domizlaff emerges as one fascinating figure of German marketing history, which several contributors refer to and whose career as the German cigarette manufacturer Reemtsma is critically analysed by Tino Jacobs. Domizlaff was Germany's own ‘marketing guru’, whose successful campaigns led to the wide-ranging reception of his ideas about the nature of good branding and marketing. These are variously described as intuitive, elitist, and sachlich, a German concept of a sober, fact-based, and ‘no frills’ approach. Domizlaff did not believe in market research. Rather, he saw the genius of the individual advertiser as key to intuitively ascertaining the people's moods, wishes, and desires. This seems to have made him peculiarly suited to the tastes of the German middle class, according to Thomas Mergel's contribution on the nature of political marketing in the republic. Especially in politics, any form of hard sales tactics were severely frowned upon and considered to demean the citizen as incapable of making an informed choice, a mentality that he dates back to the traditions of nineteenth-century liberalism. Part of this disdain of ‘selling politics like toothpaste’ was also founded on the highly effective use of branding by the National Socialists, who identified their party through the use of an increasingly standardised image of Adolf Hitler and the swastika. Alexander Schug extends on previous research that criticised the simplistic notion of Hitler's charisma as the only explanation of the popular success and distances his approach from those who see it in terms of propaganda and demagogy. He argues that the NSDAP used the tools of advertising and branding precisely because they had to introduce their new ideology into a political marketplace dominated by more established parties. In this they were undoubtedly successful, more so than they intended: as bakers sold swastika cookies and butchers formed Führer heads out of lard, the NSDAP sought to regain control over the now effectively iconic images that constituted their brand, which was in danger of being trivialised and devalued. Key to understanding the history of marketing in Germany is on the one hand the exchange of ideas with the United States, and on the other the impact of national-socialist policies, and the question whether they were a force of modernisation or retardation. The general argument in the volume appears to favour the latter explanation. In the 1930s, some of the leading marketing experts emigrated to the USA, leaving German academia and business isolated. The aftermath of the Second World War left a country that needed to increase production to satisfy consumer demand, and there was little interest in advanced sales techniques. Although the Nazis were progressive in applying new marketing methods to their political campaign, this retarded the adoption of sales techniques in politics for a long time. Germany saw the development of idiosyncratic approaches by people like Domizlaff in the 1930s and 1940s, when it lost some leading thinkers, and only engaged with American marketing conceptions in the 1960s and 1970s, when consumers eventually became more important than producers.

A tale of two analyses: the use of archived qualitative data

This article provides a unique contribution to the debates about archived qualitative data by drawing on two uses of the same data - British Migrants in Spain: the Extent and Nature of Social Integration, 2003-2005 - by Jones (2009) and Oliver and O'Reilly (2010), both of which utilise Bourdieu's concepts analytically and produce broadly similar findings. We argue that whilst the insights and experiences of those researchers directly involved in data collection are important resources for developing contextual knowledge used in data analysis, other kinds of critical distance can also facilitate credible data use. We therefore challenge the assumption that the idiosyncratic relationship between context, reflexivity and interpretation limits the future use of data. Moreover, regardless of the complex genealogy of the data itself, given the number of contingencies shaping the qualitative research process and thus the potential for partial or inaccurate interpretation, contextual familiarity need not be privileged over other aspects of qualitative praxis such as sustained theoretical insight, sociological imagination and methodological rigour. © Sociological Research Online, 1996-2012.

Spillovers from FDI and local networks:the importance of transactional linkages and vertical keiretsu in Japan

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the importance of host country networks and organisation of production in the context of international technology transfer that accompanies foreign direct investment (FDI). Design/methodology/approach – The empirical analysis is based on unbalanced panel data covering Japanese firms active in two-digit manufacturing sectors over a seven-year period. Given the self-selection problem affecting past sectoral-level studies, using firm-level panel data is a prerequisite to provide robust empirical evidence. Findings – While Japan is thought of as being a technologically advanced country, the results show that vertical productivity spillovers from FDI occur in Japan, but they are sensitive to technological differences between domestic firms and the idiosyncratic Japanese institutional network. FDI in vertically organised keiretsu sectors generates inter-industry spillovers through backward and forward linkages, while FDI within sectors linked to vertical keiretsu activities adversely affects domestic productivity. Overall, our results suggest that the role of vertical keiretsu is more prevalent than that of horizontal keiretsu. Originality/value – Japan’s industrial landscape has been dominated by institutional clusters or networks of inter-firm organisations through reciprocated, direct and indirect ties. However, interactions between inward investors and such institutionalised networks in the host economy are seldom explored. The role and characteristics of local business groups, in the form of keiretsu networks, have been investigated to determine the scale and scope of spillovers from inward FDI to Japanese establishments. This conceptualisation depends on the institutional mechanism and the market structure through which host economies absorb and exploit FDI.

Troglitazone

Troglitazone was the first thiazolidinedione antihyperglycemic agent to be introduced for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus. It was introduced in 1997, but withdrawn almost immediately (UK) or by 2000 (USA) as evidence emerged of fatal idiosyncratic hepatotoxicity... © 2007 Copyright © 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.