Toward prediction of class II mouse major histocompatibility complex peptide binding affinity:in silico bioinformatic evaluation using partial least squares, a robust multivariate statistical technique

The accurate identification of T-cell epitopes remains a principal goal of bioinformatics within immunology. As the immunogenicity of peptide epitopes is dependent on their binding to major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecules, the prediction of binding affinity is a prerequisite to the reliable prediction of epitopes. The iterative self-consistent (ISC) partial-least-squares (PLS)-based additive method is a recently developed bioinformatic approach for predicting class II peptide−MHC binding affinity. The ISC−PLS method overcomes many of the conceptual difficulties inherent in the prediction of class II peptide−MHC affinity, such as the binding of a mixed population of peptide lengths due to the open-ended class II binding site. The method has applications in both the accurate prediction of class II epitopes and the manipulation of affinity for heteroclitic and competitor peptides. The method is applied here to six class II mouse alleles (I-Ab, I-Ad, I-Ak, I-As, I-Ed, and I-Ek) and included peptides up to 25 amino acids in length. A series of regression equations highlighting the quantitative contributions of individual amino acids at each peptide position was established. The initial model for each allele exhibited only moderate predictivity. Once the set of selected peptide subsequences had converged, the final models exhibited a satisfactory predictive power. Convergence was reached between the 4th and 17th iterations, and the leave-one-out cross-validation statistical terms - q2, SEP, and NC - ranged between 0.732 and 0.925, 0.418 and 0.816, and 1 and 6, respectively. The non-cross-validated statistical terms r2 and SEE ranged between 0.98 and 0.995 and 0.089 and 0.180, respectively. The peptides used in this study are available from the AntiJen database (http://www.jenner.ac.uk/AntiJen). The PLS method is available commercially in the SYBYL molecular modeling software package. The resulting models, which can be used for accurate T-cell epitope prediction, will be made freely available online (http://www.jenner.ac.uk/MHCPred).

Prediction of Klason lignin and lignin thermal degradation products by Py-GC/MS in a collection of Lolium and Festuca grasses

A rapid method for the analysis of biomass feedstocks was established to identify the quality of the pyrolysis products likely to impact on bio-oil production. A total of 15 Lolium and Festuca grasses known to exhibit a range of Klason lignin contents were analysed by pyroprobe-GC/MS (Py-GC/MS) to determine the composition of the thermal degradation products of lignin. The identification of key marker compounds which are the derivatives of the three major lignin subunits (G, H, and S) allowed pyroprobe-GC/MS to be statistically correlated to the Klason lignin content of the biomass using the partial least-square method to produce a calibration model. Data from this multivariate modelling procedure was then applied to identify likely "key marker" ions representative of the lignin subunits from the mass spectral data. The combined total abundance of the identified key markers for the lignin subunits exhibited a linear relationship with the Klason lignin content. In addition the effect of alkali metal concentration on optimum pyrolysis characteristics was also examined. Washing of the grass samples removed approximately 70% of the metals and changed the characteristics of the thermal degradation process and products. Overall the data indicate that both the organic and inorganic specification of the biofuel impacts on the pyrolysis process and that pyroprobe-GC/MS is a suitable analytical technique to asses lignin composition. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting class I major histocompatibility complex (MHC) binders using multivariate statistics:comparison of discriminant analysis and multiple linear regression

The accurate in silico identification of T-cell epitopes is a critical step in the development of peptide-based vaccines, reagents, and diagnostics. It has a direct impact on the success of subsequent experimental work. Epitopes arise as a consequence of complex proteolytic processing within the cell. Prior to being recognized by T cells, an epitope is presented on the cell surface as a complex with a major histocompatibility complex (MHC) protein. A prerequisite therefore for T-cell recognition is that an epitope is also a good MHC binder. Thus, T-cell epitope prediction overlaps strongly with the prediction of MHC binding. In the present study, we compare discriminant analysis and multiple linear regression as algorithmic engines for the definition of quantitative matrices for binding affinity prediction. We apply these methods to peptides which bind the well-studied human MHC allele HLA-A*0201. A matrix which results from combining results of the two methods proved powerfully predictive under cross-validation. The new matrix was also tested on an external set of 160 binders to HLA-A*0201; it was able to recognize 135 (84%) of them.

BPROMPT:a consensus server for membrane protein prediction

Protein structure prediction is a cornerstone of bioinformatics research. Membrane proteins require their own prediction methods due to their intrinsically different composition. A variety of tools exist for topology prediction of membrane proteins, many of them available on the Internet. The server described in this paper, BPROMPT (Bayesian PRediction Of Membrane Protein Topology), uses a Bayesian Belief Network to combine the results of other prediction methods, providing a more accurate consensus prediction. Topology predictions with accuracies of 70% for prokaryotes and 53% for eukaryotes were achieved. BPROMPT can be accessed at http://www.jenner.ac.uk/BPROMPT.

Quantitative online prediction of peptide binding to the major histocompatibility complex

With its implications for vaccine discovery, the accurate prediction of T cell epitopes is one of the key aspirations of computational vaccinology. We have developed a robust multivariate statistical method, based on partial least squares, for the quantitative prediction of peptide binding to major histocompatibility complexes (MHC), the principal checkpoint on the antigen presentation pathway. As a service to the immunobiology community, we have made a Perl implementation of the method available via a World Wide Web server. We call this server MHCPred. Access to the server is freely available from the URL: http://www.jenner.ac.uk/MHCPred. We have exemplified our method with a model for peptides binding to the common human MHC molecule HLA-B*3501.

MHCPred : a server for quantitative prediction of peptide-MHC binding

Accurate T-cell epitope prediction is a principal objective of computational vaccinology. As a service to the immunology and vaccinology communities at large, we have implemented, as a server on the World Wide Web, a partial least squares-base multivariate statistical approach to the quantitative prediction of peptide binding to major histocom-patibility complexes (MHC), the key checkpoint on the antigen presentation pathway within adaptive,cellular immunity. MHCPred implements robust statistical models for both Class I alleles (HLA-A*0101, HLA-A*0201, HLA-A*0202, HLA-A*0203,HLA-A*0206, HLA-A*0301, HLA-A*1101, HLA-A*3301, HLA-A*6801, HLA-A*6802 and HLA-B*3501) and Class II alleles (HLA-DRB*0401, HLA-DRB*0401and HLA-DRB* 0701).

Wind power forecasts using Gaussian processes and numerical weather prediction

Since wind at the earth's surface has an intrinsically complex and stochastic nature, accurate wind power forecasts are necessary for the safe and economic use of wind energy. In this paper, we investigated a combination of numeric and probabilistic models: a Gaussian process (GP) combined with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model was applied to wind-power forecasting up to one day ahead. First, the wind-speed data from NWP was corrected by a GP, then, as there is always a defined limit on power generated in a wind turbine due to the turbine controlling strategy, wind power forecasts were realized by modeling the relationship between the corrected wind speed and power output using a censored GP. To validate the proposed approach, three real-world datasets were used for model training and testing. The empirical results were compared with several classical wind forecast models, and based on the mean absolute error (MAE), the proposed model provides around 9% to 14% improvement in forecasting accuracy compared to an artificial neural network (ANN) model, and nearly 17% improvement on a third dataset which is from a newly-built wind farm for which there is a limited amount of training data. © 2013 IEEE.

Deconstructing phonological tasks:the contribution of stimulus and response type to the prediction of early decoding skills

Abstract Phonological tasks are highly predictive of reading development but their complexity obscures the underlying mechanisms driving this association. There are three key components hypothesised to drive the relationship between phonological tasks and reading; (a) the linguistic nature of the stimuli, (b) the phonological complexity of the stimuli, and (c) the production of a verbal response. We isolated the contribution of the stimulus and response components separately through the creation of latent variables to represent specially designed tasks that were matched for procedure. These tasks were administered to 570 6 to 7-year-old children along with standardised tests of regular word and non-word reading. A structural equation model, where tasks were grouped according to stimulus, revealed that the linguistic nature and the phonological complexity of the stimulus predicted unique variance in decoding, over and above matched comparison tasks without these components. An alternative model, grouped according to response mode, showed that the production of a verbal response was a unique predictor of decoding beyond matched tasks without a verbal response. In summary, we found that multiple factors contributed to reading development, supporting multivariate models over those that prioritize single factors. More broadly, we demonstrate the value of combining matched task designs with latent variable modelling to deconstruct the components of complex tasks.