Dimensionality reduction in complex models

As a part of the Managing Uncertainty in Complex Models (MUCM) project, research at Aston University will develop methods for dimensionality reduction of the input and/or output spaces of models, as seen within the emulator framework. Towards this end this report describes a framework for generating toy datasets, whose underlying structure is understood, to facilitate early investigations of dimensionality reduction methods and to gain a deeper understanding of the algorithms employed, both in terms of how effective they are for given types of models / situations, and also their speed in applications and how this scales with various factors. The framework, which allows the evaluation of both screening and projection approaches to dimensionality reduction, is described. We also describe the screening and projection methods currently under consideration and present some preliminary results. The aim of this draft of the report is to solicit feedback from the project team on the dataset generation framework, the methods we propose to use, and suggestions for extensions that should be considered.

Investigating the modulation of oral drug absorption using in vitro models

Dipeptides can be absorbed into cells via the dipeptide transporter (which also transported tripeptides and dipeptide derivatives). The optimum conditions for measuring the inhibition of Gly-Pro uptake in Caco-2 cells were identified. A number of structure-activity relationships were identified. These included the effects of increasing the amino-acid chain-length, and the presence of a thiol or hydroxyl group in the side-chain increased IC50 while the presence of a hydroxyl group did not. The benzyl esters had lower or equal IC50 values compared to the parent dipeptides while the methyl esters had higher values. These results indicated that while molecular properties did affect IC50, the size, charge and composition of three particular groups caused the most significant effects, supporting the structure-activity relationship identified. An assay was developed using calcein-AM to show the inhibition of p-glycoprotein activity. There was no significant change due to the presence of mannitol but there was in the presence of clyclosporin A (p<0.01). Incubating the cells with the test solution for 30 minutes before the addition of the ester resulted in a significant (p<0.001) difference. The assay was specific for p-glycoprotein, as the presence MRP inhibitors had no effect (p>0.05). The modified protocol allowed the identification of p-glycoprotein inhibitors quickly and simply using a cell suspension of unmodified cells. The clinically relevant buffering of grapefruit juice to pH 7 led to a four-fold increase in intracellular calcein and hence significant inhibition of p-glycoprotein. Buffered orange and lemon juices had no effect on the assay. Flavone derivatives had previously been found to be inhibitors of CYP3A4 yet neither naringin nor naringenin had any significant effect at concentrations found in grapefruit juice. Of the other (non-grapefruit) flavone derivatives tested, hesperidin, found in orange juice, had no significant effect, kaempferol and rutin also had no effect while genistein significantly inhibited p-glycoprotein (results that support previous studies). Hydroxycinnamic acids had no effect on p-glycoprotein. Studies on other compounds found that the balance between inhibiting p-glycoprotein and disrupting cell membranes depends on the compound containing an oxygen atom and the size of the negative charge on it, as well as three-dimensional arrangement of the atoms.

Effects of some 5-hydroxytryptamine and related ligands in anxiety models

Drugs acting at 5-HT receptors were evaluated on three animal models of anxiety. On the elevated X-maze test the majority of 5-HT1 agonists were found to be anxiogenic. However, ipsapirone was anxiolytic and buspirone and gepirone were inactive. The 5-HT2 agonist DOI and the 5-HT2 antagonist ritanserin were anxiolytic while ICI 169,369, a 5-HT2 antagonist was inactive. All 5-HT3 antagonists tested were inactive in this test, while the indirect serotomimetics zimeldine and fenfluramine were anxiogenic. Neither beta-adrenoceptor agonists nor antagonists had reproducible effects on anxiety in this model. Combined beta-1/beta-2 adrenoceptor antagonists reversed the anxiogenic effects of 8-OH-DPAT while selective beta-1 or beta-2 antagonists did not. On the social interaction model the 5-HT1 agonists 8-OH-DPAT, RU 24969 and 5-MeODMT were anxiogenic and ipsapirone was anxiolytic. The 5-HT2 agonist DOI and the beta-adrenoceptor- and 5-HT- antagonist pindolol were anxiolytic, while the 5-HT2 and 5-HT3 antagonists were inactive. In the marble burying test, the 5-HT upake inhibitors zimeldine, fluvoxamine, indalpine and citalopram, the 5-HT1B/5-HT1C agonists mCPP and TFMPP and the 5-HT2/5-HT1C agonist DOI reduced marble burying without affecting locomotor activity. 5-HT1A agonists and the 5-HT2 and 5-HT3 antagonists were without effect. Lesions of the dorsal raphe nucleus reversed the anxiogenic effects of 8-OH-DPAT in the X-maze model. The implication of these results for the understanding of the pharmacology of 5-HT in anxiety is discussed.

On the modulation of the effects of some 5 - HT - related agents in axiety models

The results of an investigation into how stressors interact with the action of serotonergic agents in animal models of anxiety are presented. Water deprivation and restraint both increased plasma corticosterone concentrations and elevated 5-HT turnover. In the elevated X-maze, water deprivation had a duration-dependent "anxiolytic" effect. The effect of restraint was dependent on the duration of restraint and was to inhibit maze exploration. Water-deprivation did not influence the action of diazepam or any 5-HT1A ligand in the X-maze. Restraint switched the "anxiogenic" effect of 8-0H-DPAT to either "anxiolytic" or inactive, depending on the time after the restraint when testing was performed. The Vogel conflict test detected an "anxiolytic" "anxiolytic"V"anxiolytic""anxiolytic" effect of buspirone which was additive with "anxiolytic" effects of pindolol and propranolol. Diazepam and fluoxetine were also active, but 8-0H-DPAT, ipsapirone, gepirone and yohimbine were inactive. In the elevated X-maze, "anxiogenic" responses to picrotoxin, flumazenil, RU 24969, CGS 12066B, fluoxetine and 8-0H-DPAT were detected. Other 5-HT1A ligands were inactive. Diazepam and corticosterone had "anxiolytic" effects. Increasing light intensity did not change behaviour on the elevated X-maze, but was able to reverse the effect of 8- OH-DPAT to an "anxiolytic" action. This effect was attributed to a presynaptic mechanism, because it was abolished by pCPA. The occurence of different behaviours in different reglons of the maze was shown to be susceptible to modulation by "anxiolytic" and "anxiogenic" drugs. These results are discussed in the context of there being at least two separate 5-HT mechanisms which are involved in the control of anxiety.

Assessment of different formulations of oral Mycobacterium bovis Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine in rodent models for immunogenicity and protection against aerosol challenge with M-bovis

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) caused by infection with Mycobacterium bovis is causing considerable economic loss to farmers and Government in the United Kingdom as its incidence is increasing. Efforts to control bTB in the UK are hampered by the infection in Eurasian badgers (Metes metes) that represent a wildlife reservoir and source of recurrent M. bovis exposure to cattle. Vaccination of badgers with the human TB vaccine, M. bovis Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG), in oral bait represents a possible disease control tool and holds the best prospect for reaching badger populations over a wide geographical area. Using mouse and guinea pig models, we evaluated the immunogenicity and protective efficacy, respectively, of candidate badger oral vaccines based on formulation of BCG in lipid matrix, alginate beads, or a novel microcapsular hybrid of both lipid and alginate. Two different oral doses of BCG were evaluated in each formulation for their protective efficacy in guinea pigs, while a single dose was evaluated in mice. In mice, significant immune responses (based on lymphocyte proliferation and expression of IFN-gamma) were only seen with the lipid matrix and the lipid in alginate microcapsular formulation, corresponding to the isolation of viable BCG from alimentary tract lymph nodes. In guinea pigs, only BCG formulated in lipid matrix conferred protection to the spleen and lungs following aerosol route challenge with M. bovis. Protection was seen with delivery doses in the range 10(6)-10(7) CFU, although this was more consistent in the spleen at the higher dose. No protection in terms of organ CFU was seen with BCG administered in alginate beads or in lipid in alginate microcapsules, although 10(7) in the latter formulation conferred protection in terms of increasing body weight after challenge and a smaller lung to body weight ratio at necropsy. These results highlight the potential for lipid, rather than alginate, -based vaccine formulations as suitable delivery vehicles for an oral BCG vaccine in badgers.

Reducing suffering in animal models and procedures involving seizures, convulsions and epilepsy

This report is based on discussions and submissions from an expert working group consisting of veterinarians, animal care staff and scientists with expert knowledge relevant to the field and aims to facilitate the implementation of the Three Rs (replacement, reduction and refinement) in the use of animal models or procedures involving seizures, convulsions and epilepsy. Each of these conditions will be considered, the specific welfare issues discussed, and practical measures to reduce animal use and suffering suggested. The emphasis is on refinement since this has the greatest potential for immediate implementation, and some general issues for refinement are summarised to help achieve this, with more detail provided on a range of specific refinements.

Self-sustained clusters and ergodicity breaking in spin models

Self-sustained spin clusters are analytically linked to ergodicity breaking in fully connected Ising and Sherrington-Kirkpatick (SK) models, relating the less understood spin space to the well understood state space. This correspondence is established through the absence of clusters in the paramagnetic phase, the presence of one dominant cluster in the Ising ferromagnet, and the formation of nontrivial clusters in SK spin glass. Yet unobserved phenomena are also revealed such as a first order phase transition in cluster sizes in the SK ferromagnet. The method could be adapted to investigate other spin models. © 2013 American Physical Society.

Role of fluctuations in membrane models:thermal versus nonthermal

We study the comparative importance of thermal to nonthermal fluctuations for membrane-based models in the linear regime. Our results, both in 1+1 and 2+1 dimensions, suggest that nonthermal fluctuations dominate thermal ones only when the relaxation time τ is large. For moderate to small values of τ, the dynamics is defined by a competition between these two forces. The results are expected to act as a quantitative benchmark for biological modeling in systems involving cytoskeletal and other nonthermal fluctuations. © 2011 American Physical Society.

Integrating OpenMI and Uncertweb:managing uncertainty in OpenMI models

OpenMI is a widely used standard allowing exchange of data between integrated models, which has mostly been applied to dynamic, deterministic models. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project we are developing mechanisms and tools to support the management of uncertainty in environmental models. In this paper we explore the integration of the UncertWeb framework with OpenMI, to assess the issues that arise when propagating uncertainty in OpenMI model compositions, and the degree of integration possible with UncertWeb tools. In particular we develop an uncertainty-enabled model for a simple Lotka-Volterra system with an interface conforming to the OpenMI standard, exploring uncertainty in the initial predator and prey levels, and the parameters of the model equations. We use the Elicitator tool developed within UncertWeb to identify the initial condition uncertainties, and show how these can be integrated, using UncertML, with simple Monte Carlo propagation mechanisms. The mediators we develop for OpenMI models are generic and produce standard Web services that expose the OpenMI models to a Web based framework. We discuss what further work is needed to allow a more complete system to be developed and show how this might be used practically.

Comparison of the anticatabolic effects of leucine and Ca-β-hydroxy-β-methylbutyrate in experimental models of cancer cachexia

Objective: Loss of skeletal muscle is the most debilitating feature of cancer cachexia, and there are few treatments available. The aim of this study was to compare the anticatabolic efficacy of L-leucine and the leucine metabolite β-hydroxy-β-methylbutyrate (Ca-HMB) on muscle protein metabolism, both invitro and invivo. Methods: Studies were conducted in mice bearing the cachexia-inducing murine adenocarcinoma 16 tumor, and in murine C2 C12 myotubes exposed to proteolysis-inducing factor, lipopolysaccharide, and angiotensin II. Results: Both leucine and HMB were found to attenuate the increase in protein degradation and the decrease in protein synthesis in murine myotubes induced by proteolysis-inducing factor, lipopolysaccharide, and angiotensin II. However, HMB was more potent than leucine, because HMB at 50 μM produced essentially the same effect as leucine at 1 mM. Both leucine and HMB reduced the activity of the ubiquitin-proteasome pathway as measured by the functional (chymotrypsin-like) enzyme activity of the proteasome in muscle lysates, as well as Western blot quantitation of protein levels of the structural/enzymatic proteasome subunits (20 S and 19 S) and the ubiquitin ligases (MuRF1 and MAFbx). Invivo studies in mice bearing the murine adenocarcinoma 16 tumor showed a low dose of Ca-HMB (0.25 g/kg) tobe 60% more effective than leucine (1 g/kg) in attenuating loss of body weight over a 4-d period. Conclusion: These results favor the clinical feasibility of using Ca-HMB over high doses of leucine for the treatment of cancer cachexia. © 2014 Elsevier Inc.

The challenges of representing human behaviour in simulation models:some case examples from supply chain, evacuation modelling and rail disruption

As more of the economy moves from traditional manufacturing to the service sector, the nature of work is becoming less tangible and thus, the representation of human behaviour in models is becoming more important. Representing human behaviour and decision making in models is challenging, both in terms of capturing the essence of the processes, and also the way that those behaviours and decisions are or can be represented in the models themselves. In order to advance understanding in this area, a useful first step is to evaluate and start to classify the various types of behaviour and decision making that are required to be modelled. This talk will attempt to set out and provide an initial classification of the different types of behaviour and decision making that a modeller might want to represent in a model. Then, it will be useful to start to assess the main methods of simulation in terms of their capability in representing these various aspects. The three main simulation methods, System Dynamics, Agent Based Modelling and Discrete Event Simulation all achieve this to varying degrees. There is some evidence that all three methods can, within limits, represent the key aspects of the system being modelled. The three simulation approaches are then assessed for their suitability in modelling these various aspects. Illustration of behavioural modelling will be provided from cases in supply chain management, evacuation modelling and rail disruption.

Detection and quantification of protein oxidation in sarcopenic models:a mass spectrometry study

Oxidised biomolecules in aged tissue could potentially be used as biomarkers for age-related diseases; however, it is still unclear whether they causatively contribute to ageing or are consequences of the ageing process. To assess the potential of using protein oxidation as markers of ageing, mass spectrometry (MS) was employed for the identification and quantification of oxidative modifications in obese (ob/ob) mice. Lean muscle mass and strength is reduced in obesity, representing a sarcopenic model in which the levels of oxidation can be evaluated for different muscular systems including calcium homeostasis, metabolism and contractility. Several oxidised residues were identified by tandem MS (MS/MS) in both muscle homogenate and isolated sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR), an organelle that regulates intracellular calcium levels in muscle. These modifications include oxidation of methionine, cysteine, tyrosine, and tryptophan in several proteins such as sarcoplasmic reticulum calcium ATPase (SERCA), glycogen phosphorylase, and myosin. Once modifications had been identified, multiple reaction monitoring MS (MRM) was used to quantify the percentage modification of oxidised residues within the samples. Preliminary data suggests proteins in ob/ob mice are more oxidised than the controls. For example SERCA, which constitutes 60-70% of the SR, had approximately a 2-fold increase in cysteine trioxidation of Cys561 in the obese model when compared to the control. Other obese muscle proteins have also shown a similar increase in oxidation for various residues. Further analysis with complex protein mixtures will determine the potential diagnostic use of MRM experiments for analysing protein oxidation in small biological samples such as muscle needle biopsies.

Novel, isoform-selective, cholecystokinin A receptor antagonist inhibits colon and pancreatic cancers in preclinical models through novel mechanism of action

Colon and pancreatic cancers contribute to 90,000 deaths each year in the USA. These cancers lack targeted therapeutics due to heterogeneity of the disease and multiple causative factors. One important factor that contributes to increased colon and pancreatic cancer risk is gastrin. Gastrin mediates its actions through two G-protein coupled receptors (GPCRs): cholecystokinin receptor A (CCK-A) and CCK-B/gastrin receptor. Previous studies have indicated that colon cancer predominantly expresses CCK-A and responds to CCK-A isoform antagonists. However, many CCK-A antagonists have failed in the clinic due to poor pharmacokinetic properties or lack of efficacy. In the present study, we synthesized a library of CCK-A isoform-selective antagonists and tested them in various colon and pancreatic cancer preclinical models. The lead CCK-A isoform, selective antagonist PNB-028, bound to CCK-A at 12 nM with a 60-fold selectivity towards CCK-A over CCK-B. Furthermore, it inhibited the proliferation of CCK-A-expressing colon and pancreatic cancer cells without affecting the proliferation of non-cancerous cells. PNB-028 was also extremely effective in inhibiting the growth of MAC-16 and LoVo colon cancer and MIA PaCa pancreatic cancer xenografts in immune-compromised mice. Genomewide microarray and kinase-array studies indicate that PNB-028 inhibited oncogenic kinases and angiogenic factors to inhibit the growth of colon cancer xenografts. Safety pharmacology and toxicology studies have indicated that PNB-028 is extremely safe and has a wide safety margin. These studies suggest that targeting CCK-A selectively renders promise to treat colon and pancreatic cancers and that PNB-028 could become the next-generation treatment option.

An econometric analysis of international tourism demand in Hong Kong : a cointegration and error correction approach

The purpose of this study is to develop econometric models to better understand the economic factors affecting inbound tourist flows from each of six origin countries that contribute to Hong Kong’s international tourism demand. To this end, we test alternative cointegration and error correction approaches to examine the economic determinants of tourist flows to Hong Kong, and to produce accurate econometric forecasts of inbound tourism demand. Our empirical findings show that permanent income is the most significant determinant of tourism demand in all models. The variables of own price, weighted substitute prices, trade volume, the share price index (as an indicator of changes in wealth in origin countries), and a dummy variable representing the Beijing incident (1989) are also found to be important determinants for some origin countries. The average long-run income and own price elasticity was measured at 2.66 and – 1.02, respectively. It was hypothesised that permanent income is a better explanatory variable of long-haul tourism demand than current income. A novel approach (grid search process) has been used to empirically derive the weights to be attached to the lagged income variable for estimating permanent income. The results indicate that permanent income, estimated with empirically determined relatively small weighting factors, was capable of producing better results than the current income variable in explaining long-haul tourism demand. This finding suggests that the use of current income in previous empirical tourism demand studies may have produced inaccurate results. The share price index, as a measure of wealth, was also found to be significant in two models. Studies of tourism demand rarely include wealth as an explanatory forecasting long-haul tourism demand. However, finding a satisfactory proxy for wealth common to different countries is problematic. This study indicates with the ECM (Error Correction Models) based on the Engle-Granger (1987) approach produce more accurate forecasts than ECM based on Pesaran and Shin (1998) and Johansen (1988, 1991, 1995) approaches for all of the long-haul markets and Japan. Overall, ECM produce better forecasts than the OLS, ARIMA and NAÏVE models, indicating the superiority of the application of a cointegration approach for tourism demand forecasting. The results show that permanent income is the most important explanatory variable for tourism demand from all countries but there are substantial variations between countries with the long-run elasticity ranging between 1.1 for the U.S. and 5.3 for U.K. Price is the next most important variable with the long-run elasticities ranging between -0.8 for Japan and -1.3 for Germany and short-run elasticities ranging between – 0.14 for Germany and -0.7 for Taiwan. The fastest growing market is Mainland China. The findings have implications for policies and strategies on investment, marketing promotion and pricing.

Influence of birth cohort on age of onset cluster analysis in bipolar I disorder

PURPOSE: Two common approaches to identify subgroups of patients with bipolar disorder are clustering methodology (mixture analysis) based on the age of onset, and a birth cohort analysis. This study investigates if a birth cohort effect will influence the results of clustering on the age of onset, using a large, international database. METHODS: The database includes 4037 patients with a diagnosis of bipolar I disorder, previously collected at 36 collection sites in 23 countries. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used to adjust the data for country median age, and in some models, birth cohort. Model-based clustering (mixture analysis) was then performed on the age of onset data using the residuals. Clinical variables in subgroups were compared. RESULTS: There was a strong birth cohort effect. Without adjusting for the birth cohort, three subgroups were found by clustering. After adjusting for the birth cohort or when considering only those born after 1959, two subgroups were found. With results of either two or three subgroups, the youngest subgroup was more likely to have a family history of mood disorders and a first episode with depressed polarity. However, without adjusting for birth cohort (three subgroups), family history and polarity of the first episode could not be distinguished between the middle and oldest subgroups. CONCLUSION: These results using international data confirm prior findings using single country data, that there are subgroups of bipolar I disorder based on the age of onset, and that there is a birth cohort effect. Including the birth cohort adjustment altered the number and characteristics of subgroups detected when clustering by age of onset. Further investigation is needed to determine if combining both approaches will identify subgroups that are more useful for research.