Application of Naïve Bayesian sequential analysis to primary care optometry

The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of circularity, comorbidity, prevalence and presentation variation on the accuracy of differential diagnoses made in optometric primary care using a modified form of naïve Bayesian sequential analysis. No such investigation has ever been reported before. Data were collected for 1422 cases seen over one year. Positive test outcomes were recorded for case history (ethnicity, age, symptoms and ocular and medical history) and clinical signs in relation to each diagnosis. For this reason only positive likelihood ratios were used for this modified form of Bayesian analysis that was carried out with Laplacian correction and Chi-square filtration. Accuracy was expressed as the percentage of cases for which the diagnoses made by the clinician appeared at the top of a list generated by Bayesian analysis. Preliminary analyses were carried out on 10 diagnoses and 15 test outcomes. Accuracy of 100% was achieved in the absence of presentation variation but dropped by 6% when variation existed. Circularity artificially elevated accuracy by 0.5%. Surprisingly, removal of Chi-square filtering increased accuracy by 0.4%. Decision tree analysis showed that accuracy was influenced primarily by prevalence followed by presentation variation and comorbidity. Analysis of 35 diagnoses and 105 test outcomes followed. This explored the use of positive likelihood ratios, derived from the case history, to recommend signs to look for. Accuracy of 72% was achieved when all clinical signs were entered. The drop in accuracy, compared to the preliminary analysis, was attributed to the fact that some diagnoses lacked strong diagnostic signs; the accuracy increased by 1% when only recommended signs were entered. Chi-square filtering improved recommended test selection. Decision tree analysis showed that accuracy again influenced primarily by prevalence, followed by comorbidity and presentation variation. Future work will explore the use of likelihood ratios based on positive and negative test findings prior to considering naïve Bayesian analysis as a form of artificial intelligence in optometric practice.

Improved methodology to evaluate fracture properties of warm-mix asphalt using overlay test

This study developed a reliable and repeatable methodology to evaluate the fracture properties of asphalt mixtures with an overlay test (OT). In the proposed methodology, first, a two-step OT protocol was used to characterize the undamaged and damaged behaviors of asphalt mixtures. Second, a new methodology combining the mechanical analysis of viscoelastic force equilibrium in the OT specimen and finite element simulations was used to determine the undamaged properties and crack growth function of asphalt mixtures. Third, a modified Paris's law replacing the stress intensity factor by the pseudo J-integral was employed to characterize the fracture behavior of asphalt mixtures. Theoretical equations were derived to calculate the parameters A and n (defined as the fracture properties) in the modified Paris's law. The study used a detailed example to calculate A and n from the OT data. The proposed methodology was successfully applied to evaluate the impact of warm-mix asphalt (WMA) technologies on fracture properties. The results of the tested specimens showed that Evotherm WMA technology slightly improved the cracking resistance of asphalt mixtures, while foaming WMA technology provided comparable fracture properties. In addition, the study found that A decreased with the increase in n in general. A linear relationship between 2log(A) and n was established.

Added luminance ramp alters perceived edge blur and contrast:A critical test for derivative-based models of edge coding

In many models of edge analysis in biological vision, the initial stage is a linear 2nd derivative operation. Such models predict that adding a linear luminance ramp to an edge will have no effect on the edge's appearance, since the ramp has no effect on the 2nd derivative. Our experiments did not support this prediction: adding a negative-going ramp to a positive-going edge (or vice-versa) greatly reduced the perceived blur and contrast of the edge. The effects on a fairly sharp edge were accurately predicted by a nonlinear multi-scale model of edge processing [Georgeson, M. A., May, K. A., Freeman, T. C. A., & Hesse, G. S. (in press). From filters to features: Scale-space analysis of edge and blur coding in human vision. Journal of Vision], in which a half-wave rectifier comes after the 1st derivative filter. But we also found that the ramp affected perceived blur more profoundly when the edge blur was large, and this greater effect was not predicted by the existing model. The model's fit to these data was much improved when the simple half-wave rectifier was replaced by a threshold-like transducer [May, K. A. & Georgeson, M. A. (2007). Blurred edges look faint, and faint edges look sharp: The effect of a gradient threshold in a multi-scale edge coding model. Vision Research, 47, 1705-1720.]. This modified model correctly predicted that the interaction between ramp gradient and edge scale would be much larger for blur perception than for contrast perception. In our model, the ramp narrows an internal representation of the gradient profile, leading to a reduction in perceived blur. This in turn reduces perceived contrast because estimated blur plays a role in the model's estimation of contrast. Interestingly, the model predicts that analogous effects should occur when the width of the window containing the edge is made narrower. This has already been confirmed for blur perception; here, we further support the model by showing a similar effect for contrast perception. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of thermal neutron radiography for the mass transport of moisture through freezing soil

This thesis reports on the development of a technique to evaluate hydraulic conductivities in a soil (Snowcal) subject to freezing conditions. The technique draws on three distinctly different disciplines, Nuclear Physics, Soil Physics and Remote Sensing to provide a non-destructive and reliable evaluation of hydraulic conductivity throughout a freezing test. Thermal neutron radiography is used to provide information on local water/ice contents at anytime throughout the test. The experimental test rig is designed so that the soil matrix can be radiated by a neutron beam, from a nuclear reactor, to obtain radiographs. The radiographs can then be interpreted, following a process of remote sensing image enhancement, to yield information on relative water/ice contents. Interpretation of the radiographs is accommodated using image analysis equipment capable of distinguishing between 256 shades of grey. Remote sensing image enhancing techniques are then employed to develop false colour images which show the movement of water and development of ice lenses in the soil. Instrumentation is incorporated in the soil in the form of psychrometer/thermocouples, to record water potential, electrical resistance probes to enable ice and water to be differentiated on the radiographs and thermocouples to record the temperature gradient. Water content determinations are made from the enhanced images and plotted against potential measurements to provide the moisture characteristic for the soil. With relevant mathematical theory pore water distributions are obtained and combined with water content data to give hydraulic conductivities. The values for hydraulic conductivity in the saturated soil and at the frozen fringe are compared with established values for silts and silty-sands. The values are in general agreement and, with refinement, this non-destructive technique could afford useful information on a whole range of soils. The technique is of value over other methods because ice lenses are actually seen forming in the soil, supporting the accepted theories of frost action. There are economic and experimental restraints to the work which are associated with the use of a nuclear facility, however, the technique is versatile and has been applied to the study of moisture transfer in porous building materials and could be further developed into other research areas.

Statnote 34 : the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test

The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test is a non-parametric test which can be used in two different circumstances. First, it can be used as an alternative to chi-square (?2) as a ‘goodness-of-fit’ test to compare whether a given ‘observed’ sample of observations conforms to an ‘expected’ distribution of results (KS, one-sample test). An example of the use of the one-sample test to determine whether a sample of observations was normally distributed was described previously. Second, it can be used as an alternative to the Mann-Whitney test to compare two independent samples of observations (KS, two-sample test). Hence, this statnote describes the use of the KS test with reference to two scenarios: (1) to compare the observed frequency (Fo) of soil samples containing cysts of the protozoan Naegleria collected each month for a year with an expected equal frequency (Fe) across months (one-sample test), and (2) to compare the abundance of bacteria on cloths and sponges sampled in a domestic kitchen environment (two-sample test).

A pre-post test evaluation of the impact of the PELICAN MDT-TME development programme on the working lives of colorectal cancer team members

Background - The PELICAN Multidisciplinary Team Total Mesorectal Excision (MDT-TME) Development Programme aimed to improve clinical outcomes for rectal cancer by educating colorectal cancer teams in precision surgery and related aspects of multidisciplinary care. The Programme reached almost all colorectal cancer teams across England. We took the opportunity to assess the impact of participating in this novel team-based Development Programme on the working lives of colorectal cancer team members. Methods - The impact of participating in the programme on team members' self-reported job stress, job satisfaction and team performance was assessed in a pre-post course study. 333/568 (59%) team members, from the 75 multidisciplinary teams who attended the final year of the Programme, completed questionnaires pre-course, and 6-8 weeks post-course. Results - Across all team members, the main sources of job satisfaction related to working in multidisciplinary teams; whilst feeling overloaded was the main source of job stress. Surgeons and clinical nurse specialists reported higher levels of job satisfaction than team members who do not provide direct patient care, whilst MDT coordinators reported the lowest levels of job satisfaction and job stress. Both job stress and satisfaction decreased after participating in the Programme for all team members. There was a small improvement in team performance. Conclusions - Participation in the Development Programme had a mixed impact on the working lives of team members in the immediate aftermath of attending. The decrease in team members' job stress may reflect the improved knowledge and skills conferred by the Programme. The decrease in job satisfaction may be the consequence of being unable to apply these skills immediately in clinical practice because of a lack of required infrastructure and/or equipment. In addition, whilst the Programme raised awareness of the challenges of teamworking, a greater focus on tackling these issues may have improved working lives further.

False recognition of objects in visual scenes:findings from a combined direct and indirect memory test

We report an extension of the procedure devised by Weinstein and Shanks (Memory & Cognition 36:1415-1428, 2008) to study false recognition and priming of pictures. Participants viewed scenes with multiple embedded objects (seen items), then studied the names of these objects and the names of other objects (read items). Finally, participants completed a combined direct (recognition) and indirect (identification) memory test that included seen items, read items, and new items. In the direct test, participants recognized pictures of seen and read items more often than new pictures. In the indirect test, participants' speed at identifying those same pictures was improved for pictures that they had actually studied, and also for falsely recognized pictures whose names they had read. These data provide new evidence that a false-memory induction procedure can elicit memory-like representations that are difficult to distinguish from "true" memories of studied pictures. © 2012 Psychonomic Society, Inc.