Energy forward price prediction with a hybrid adaptive model

This paper presents a forecasting technique for forward electricity/gas prices, one day ahead. This technique combines a Kalman filter (KF) and a generalised autoregressive conditional heteroschedasticity (GARCH) model (often used in financial forecasting). The GARCH model is used to compute next value of a time series. The KF updates parameters of the GARCH model when the new observation is available. This technique is applied to real data from the UK energy markets to evaluate its performance. The results show that the forecasting accuracy is improved significantly by using this hybrid model. The methodology can be also applied to forecasting market clearing prices and electricity/gas loads.

Collaborative filtering and deep learning based hybrid recommendation for cold start problem

Recommender systems (RS) are used by many social networking applications and online e-commercial services. Collaborative filtering (CF) is one of the most popular approaches used for RS. However traditional CF approach suffers from sparsity and cold start problems. In this paper, we propose a hybrid recommendation model to address the cold start problem, which explores the item content features learned from a deep learning neural network and applies them to the timeSVD++ CF model. Extensive experiments are run on a large Netflix rating dataset for movies. Experiment results show that the proposed hybrid recommendation model provides a good prediction for cold start items, and performs better than four existing recommendation models for rating of non-cold start items.

Early design verification of complex assembly variability using a hybrid - model based and physical testing - methodology

Design verification in the digital domain, using model-based principles, is a key research objective to address the industrial requirement for reduced physical testing and prototyping. For complex assemblies, the verification of design and the associated production methods is currently fragmented, prolonged and sub-optimal, as it uses digital and physical verification stages that are deployed in a sequential manner using multiple systems. This paper describes a novel, hybrid design verification methodology that integrates model-based variability analysis with measurement data of assemblies, in order to reduce simulation uncertainty and allow early design verification from the perspective of satisfying key assembly criteria.

A new VRPPD model and a hybrid heuristic solution approach for e-tailing

We analyze a business model for e-supermarkets to enable multi-product sourcing capacity through co-opetition (collaborative competition). The logistics aspect of our approach is to design and execute a network system where “premium” goods are acquired from vendors at multiple locations in the supply network and delivered to customers. Our specific goals are to: (i) investigate the role of premium product offerings in creating critical mass and profit; (ii) develop a model for the multiple-pickup single-delivery vehicle routing problem in the presence of multiple vendors; and (iii) propose a hybrid solution approach. To solve the problem introduced in this paper, we develop a hybrid metaheuristic approach that uses a Genetic Algorithm for vendor selection and allocation, and a modified savings algorithm for the capacitated VRP with multiple pickup, single delivery and time windows (CVRPMPDTW). The proposed Genetic Algorithm guides the search for optimal vendor pickup location decisions, and for each generated solution in the genetic population, a corresponding CVRPMPDTW is solved using the savings algorithm. We validate our solution approach against published VRPTW solutions and also test our algorithm with Solomon instances modified for CVRPMPDTW.

Challenges for expatriate managers:an exploration of cross-cultural management, adjustment, and training issues faced by Anglo-American managers in Hong Kong

This field work study furthers understanding about expatriate management, in particular, the nature of cross-cultural management in Hong Kong involving Anglo-American expatriate and Chinese host national managers, the important features of adjustment for expatriates living and working there, and the type of training which will assist them to adjust and to work successfully in this Asian environment. Qualitative and quantitative data on each issue was gathered during in-depth interviews in Hong Kong, using structured interview schedules, with 39 expatriate and 31 host national managers drawn from a cross-section of functional areas and organizations. Despite the adoption of Western technology and the influence of Western business practices, micro-level management in Hong Kong retains a cultural specificity which is consistent with the norms and values of Chinese culture. There are differences in how expatriates and host nationals define their social roles, and Hong Kong's recent colonial history appears to influence cross-cultural interpersonal interactions. The inability of the spouse and/or family to adapt to Hong Kong is identified as a major reason for expatriate assignments to fail, though the causes have less to do with living away from family and friends, than with Hong Kong's highly urbanized environment and the heavy demands of work. Culture shock is not identified as a major problem, but in Hong Kong micro-level social factors require greater adjustment than macro-level societal factors. The adjustment of expatriate managers is facilitated by a strong orientation towards career development and hard work, possession of technical/professional expertise, and a willingness to engage in a process of continuous 'active learning' with respect to the host national society and culture. A four-part model of manager training suitable for Hong Kong is derived from the study data. It consists of a pre-departure briefing, post-arrival cross-cultural training, language training in basic Cantonese and in how to communicate more effectively in English with non-native speakers, and the assignment of a mentor to newly arrived expatriate managers.

Modelling and control of a hybrid stepping motor

The integration of a microprocessor and a medium power stepper motor in one control system brings together two quite different disciplines. Various methods of interfacing are examined and the problems involved in both hardware and software manipulation are investigated. Microprocessor open-loop control of the stepper motor is considered. The possible advantages of microprocessor closed-loop control are examined and the development of a system is detailed. The system uses position feedback to initiate each motor step. Results of the dynamic response of the system are presented and its performance discussed. Applications of the static torque characteristic of the stepper motor are considered followed by a review of methods of predicting the characteristic. This shows that accurate results are possible only when the effects of magnetic saturation are avoided or when the machine is available for magnetic circuit tests to be carried out. A new method of predicting the static torque characteristic is explained in detail. The method described uses the machine geometry and the magnetic characteristics of the iron types used in the machine. From this information the permeance of each iron component of the machine is calculated and by using the equivalent magnetic circuit of the machine, the total torque produced is predicted. It is shown how this new method is implemented on a digital computer and how the model may be used to investigate further aspects of the stepper motor in addition to the static torque.

The language of business interviewing:a study in cross-cultural communication

The study examines the concept of cultural determinism in relation to the business interview, analysing differences in language use between English, French and West German native speakers. The approach is multi- and inter-disciplinary combining linguistic and business research methodologies. An analytical model based on pragmatic and speech act theory is developed to analyse language use in telephone market research interviews. The model aims to evaluate behavioural differences between English, French and West German respondents in the interview situation. The empirical research is based on a telephone survey of industrial managers, conducted in the three countries in the national language of each country. The telephone interviews are transcribed and compared across languages to discover how managers from each country use different language functions to reply to questions and requests. These differences are assessed in terms of specific cultural parameters: politeness, self-assuredness and fullness of response. Empirical and descriptive studies of national character are compared with the survey results, providing the basis for an evaluation of the relationship between management culture and national culture on a contrastive and comparative cross-cultural basis. The project conclusions focus on the implications of the findings both for business interviewing and for language teaching.

Determinants of sales performance in insurance industry:a cross-cultural comparison between the UK and Malaysia

This thesis is concerned with an empirical investigation of the factors that predict a successful salesperson, using a cross-cultural comparison of two countries: the UK and Malaysia. Besides collecting quantitative data, qualitative data on organisational, environmental and cultural factors were also collected through interviews, personal and case observations. The quantitative data consist of sixteen independent factors and three dependent factors. The independent variables include self-efficacy, self-esteem, locus of control, self-monitoring, extrinsic motivation, intrinsic motivation, experience, training perception, role ambiguity, role conflict, role inaccuracy, gender, age, education, race and religion. The dependent variables are performance target achieved, performance earnings and performance ratings. Questionnaires were distributed to about 500 salespersons in each country, from three insurance companies in the UK and two insurance companies in Malaysia. Response rates were 75 and 50 percent from the UK and Malaysia respectively. The survey results indicated that a salesperson's performance in the UK is predicted by self-efficacy, internal locus of control, self-esteem, extrinsic motivation, experience, training perceptions, role conflict and gender. In Malaysia, a salesperson's performance is predicted by self-efficacy, self-monitoring, experience, role conflict, role ambiguity, education, gender, race and religion. Self-efficacy, experience, role conflict and gender are common predictors of salespersons' performance in both cultures. The likely explanation for these results is culture differences, i.e. UK has a homogeneous culture, while Malaysia has a heterogeneous one. Results from the case observations, such as organisational and environmental factors, give supporting evidence in explaining the empirical results. Implications from the findings are discussed from two aspects: (1) theoretical implications for divergence/convergence theory, Hofstede's model, Churchill's model, and (2) managerial implications for selection, training, motivation and appraisal.

Metrics and models to support the development of hybrid information systems

The research described here concerns the development of metrics and models to support the development of hybrid (conventional/knowledge based) integrated systems. The thesis argues from the point that, although it is well known that estimating the cost, duration and quality of information systems is a difficult task, it is far from clear what sorts of tools and techniques would adequately support a project manager in the estimation of these properties. A literature review shows that metrics (measurements) and estimating tools have been developed for conventional systems since the 1960s while there has been very little research on metrics for knowledge based systems (KBSs). Furthermore, although there are a number of theoretical problems with many of the `classic' metrics developed for conventional systems, it also appears that the tools which such metrics can be used to develop are not widely used by project managers. A survey was carried out of large UK companies which confirmed this continuing state of affairs. Before any useful tools could be developed, therefore, it was important to find out why project managers were not using these tools already. By characterising those companies that use software cost estimating (SCE) tools against those which could but do not, it was possible to recognise the involvement of the client/customer in the process of estimation. Pursuing this point, a model of the early estimating and planning stages (the EEPS model) was developed to test exactly where estimating takes place. The EEPS model suggests that estimating could take place either before a fully-developed plan has been produced, or while this plan is being produced. If it were the former, then SCE tools would be particularly useful since there is very little other data available from which to produce an estimate. A second survey, however, indicated that project managers see estimating as being essentially the latter at which point project management tools are available to support the process. It would seem, therefore, that SCE tools are not being used because project management tools are being used instead. The issue here is not with the method of developing an estimating model or tool, but; in the way in which "an estimate" is intimately tied to an understanding of what tasks are being planned. Current SCE tools are perceived by project managers as targetting the wrong point of estimation, A model (called TABATHA) is then presented which describes how an estimating tool based on an analysis of tasks would thus fit into the planning stage. The issue of whether metrics can be usefully developed for hybrid systems (which also contain KBS components) is tested by extending a number of "classic" program size and structure metrics to a KBS language, Prolog. Measurements of lines of code, Halstead's operators/operands, McCabe's cyclomatic complexity, Henry & Kafura's data flow fan-in/out and post-release reported errors were taken for a set of 80 commercially-developed LPA Prolog programs: By re~defining the metric counts for Prolog it was found that estimates of program size and error-proneness comparable to the best conventional studies are possible. This suggests that metrics can be usefully applied to KBS languages, such as Prolog and thus, the development of metncs and models to support the development of hybrid information systems is both feasible and useful.

Delegation and employee work outcome:an examination of the cultural context of mediating processes in China

We used cultural self-representation theory to develop a model of the processes linking delegation to work outcomes. We tested this model with data from a sample of 171 subordinate-supervisor dyads from the People's Republic of China. Regression results revealed that organization-based self-esteem and perceived insider status fully mediated the influence of delegation on affective organizational commitment, task performance, and innovative behavior and partially mediated delegation's influence on job satisfaction. Furthermore, traditionality moderated the relationships between delegation and the mediators in such a way that the relationships were stronger for individuals lower rather than higher in traditionality. © Academy of Management Journal.

A dynamic bandwidth reservation scheme for hybrid IEEE 802.16 wireless networks

A dynamic bandwidth reservation (DBR) scheme for hybrid IEEE 802.16 wireless networks is investigated, in which 802.16 networks serve as the backhaul for client networks, such as WiFi hotspots and cellular networks. The DBR scheme implemented in the subscription stations (SSs) (co-locating with access pointers) consists of two components: connection admission controller (CAC), and bandwidth controller (BC). The CAC processes the received connection set-up requests from the client networks connected to the SSs. The BC manages the request and release of bandwidth from the base station (BS). It dynamically changes the reserved bandwidth between a small number of values. Hysteresis is incorporated in bandwidth release to reduce bandwidth request signalling load and connection blocking probability. An analytical model is proposed to evaluate the performances of reserved bandwidth, connection blocking probability and signalling load. The impacts of hysteresis mechanism and probability of reservation request blocking are taken into account. Simulation verifies the analytical model. ©2008 IEEE.

A hybrid generative/discriminative framework to train a semantic parser from an un-annotated corpus

We propose a hybrid generative/discriminative framework for semantic parsing which combines the hidden vector state (HVS) model and the hidden Markov support vector machines (HM-SVMs). The HVS model is an extension of the basic discrete Markov model in which context is encoded as a stack-oriented state vector. The HM-SVMs combine the advantages of the hidden Markov models and the support vector machines. By employing a modified K-means clustering method, a small set of most representative sentences can be automatically selected from an un-annotated corpus. These sentences together with their abstract annotations are used to train an HVS model which could be subsequently applied on the whole corpus to generate semantic parsing results. The most confident semantic parsing results are selected to generate a fully-annotated corpus which is used to train the HM-SVMs. The proposed framework has been tested on the DARPA Communicator Data. Experimental results show that an improvement over the baseline HVS parser has been observed using the hybrid framework. When compared with the HM-SVMs trained from the fully-annotated corpus, the hybrid framework gave a comparable performance with only a small set of lightly annotated sentences. © 2008. Licensed under the Creative Commons.

The idea of the hybrid text in translation revisited

This concluding chapter provides responses to some of the issues raised in the individual chapters, highlighting similarities and differences in the interpretation of the concept of the hybrid text. The questions dealt with here concern the notion of hybridity and the definition of hybrid text; the contexts in which hybrid texts emerge; the functions of hybrid texts; the various levels at which hybrid phenomena manifest themselves; the genres to which the notion of the hybrid text applies; the effects of hybrid texts; and the status of a hybrid text in Translation Studies. It is concluded that the phenomenon of the hybrid text involves greater complexity than had initially been defined in the discussion paper. There-fore, the original hypothesis is reformulated to account for the fact that hybrid texts are not only the product of a translation process but that they can also be produced as original texts in a specific cultural space, which is often in itself an intersection of different cultures.

Bridging large and small scales of water models using hybrid Molecular Dynamics/Fluctuating Hydrodynamics framework

This thesis presents a two-dimensional water model investigation and development of a multiscale method for the modelling of large systems, such as virus in water or peptide immersed in the solvent. We have implemented a two-dimensional ‘Mercedes Benz’ (MB) or BN2D water model using Molecular Dynamics. We have studied its dynamical and structural properties dependence on the model’s parameters. For the first time we derived formulas to calculate thermodynamic properties of the MB model in the microcanonical (NVE) ensemble. We also derived equations of motion in the isothermal–isobaric (NPT) ensemble. We have analysed the rotational degree of freedom of the model in both ensembles. We have developed and implemented a self-consistent multiscale method, which is able to communicate micro- and macro- scales. This multiscale method assumes, that matter consists of the two phases. One phase is related to micro- and the other to macroscale. We simulate the macro scale using Landau Lifshitz-Fluctuating Hydrodynamics, while we describe the microscale using Molecular Dynamics. We have demonstrated that the communication between the disparate scales is possible without introduction of fictitious interface or approximations which reduce the accuracy of the information exchange between the scales. We have investigated control parameters, which were introduced to control the contribution of each phases to the matter behaviour. We have shown, that microscales inherit dynamical properties of the macroscales and vice versa, depending on the concentration of each phase. We have shown, that Radial Distribution Function is not altered and velocity autocorrelation functions are gradually transformed, from Molecular Dynamics to Fluctuating Hydrodynamics description, when phase balance is changed. In this work we test our multiscale method for the liquid argon, BN2D and SPC/E water models. For the SPC/E water model we investigate microscale fluctuations which are computed using advanced mapping technique of the small scales to the large scales, which was developed by Voulgarakisand et. al.