The use of counterfactual scenarios as a means to assess policy deadweight:an Irish case study

The evaluation of industrial policy interventions has attracted increasing policy and academic attention in recent years. Despite the widespread consensus regarding the need for evaluation, the issue of how to evaluate, and the associated methodological considerations, continue to be issues of considerable debate. The authors develop an approach to estimate the net additionality of financial assistance from Enterprise Ireland to indigenously owned firms in Ireland for the period 2000 to 2002. With a sample of Enterprise Ireland assisted firms, an innovative, self-assessment, in-depth, face-to-face, interview methodology was adopted. The authors also explore a way of incorporating the indirect benefits of assistance into derived deadweight estimate issue which is seldom discussed in the context of deadweight estimates. They conclude by reflecting on the key methodological lessons learned from the evaluation process, and highlight some pertinent evaluation issues which should form the focus of much future discussion in this field of research.

An investigation of the retail marketing mix and its effectiveness in small shops

The recent history of small shop and independent retailing has been one of decline. The most desirable form of assistance is the provision of information which will increase the efficiency model of marketing mix effeciveness which may be applied in small scale retailing. A further aim is to enhance theoretical development in the marketing field. Recent changes in retailing have affected location, product range, pricing and promotion practices. Although a large number of variables representing aspects of the marketing mix may be identified, it is not possible, on the basis of currently available information, to quantify or rank them according to their effect on sales performance. In designing a suitable study a major issue is that of access to a suitable representative sample of small retailers. The publish nature of the retail activities involved facilitates the use of a novel observation approach to data collection. A cross-sectional survey research design was used focussing on a clustered random sample of greengrocers and gent's fashion outfitters in the West Midlands. Linear multiple regression was the main analytical technique. Powerful regression models were evolved for both types of retailing. For greengrocers the major influences on trade are pedestrian traffic and shelf display space. For gent's outfitters they are centrality-to-other shopping, advertising and shelf display space. The models may be utilised by retailers to determine the relative strength of marketing mix variables. The level of precision is not sufficient to permit cost benefit analysis. Comparison of the findings for the two distinct kinds of business studied suggests an overall model of marketing mix effectiveness might be based on frequency of purchase, homogeneity of the shopping environment, elasticity of demand and bulk characteristics of the good sold by a shop.

The Long-Term impact of Business Support? - Exploring the Role of Evaluation Timing using Micro Data

The original contribution of this work is threefold. Firstly, this thesis develops a critical perspective on current evaluation practice of business support, with focus on the timing of evaluation. The general time frame applied for business support policy evaluation is limited to one to two, seldom three years post intervention. This is despite calls for long-term impact studies by various authors, concerned about time lags before effects are fully realised. This desire for long-term evaluation opposes the requirements by policy-makers and funders, seeking quick results. Also, current ‘best practice’ frameworks do not refer to timing or its implications, and data availability affects the ability to undertake long-term evaluation. Secondly, this thesis provides methodological value for follow-up and similar studies by using data linking of scheme-beneficiary data with official performance datasets. Thus data availability problems are avoided through the use of secondary data. Thirdly, this thesis builds the evidence, through the application of a longitudinal impact study of small business support in England, covering seven years of post intervention data. This illustrates the variability of results for different evaluation periods, and the value in using multiple years of data for a robust understanding of support impact. For survival, impact of assistance is found to be immediate, but limited. Concerning growth, significant impact centres on a two to three year period post intervention for the linear selection and quantile regression models – positive for employment and turnover, negative for productivity. Attribution of impact may present a problem for subsequent periods. The results clearly support the argument for the use of longitudinal data and analysis, and a greater appreciation by evaluators of the factor time. This analysis recommends a time frame of four to five years post intervention for soft business support evaluation.

The long-term impact of business support? - Exploring the role of evaluation timing using micro data

The original contribution of this work is threefold. Firstly, this thesis develops a critical perspective on current evaluation practice of business support, with focus on the timing of evaluation. The general time frame applied for business support policy evaluation is limited to one to two, seldom three years post intervention. This is despite calls for long-term impact studies by various authors, concerned about time lags before effects are fully realised. This desire for long-term evaluation opposes the requirements by policy-makers and funders, seeking quick results. Also, current ‘best practice’ frameworks do not refer to timing or its implications, and data availability affects the ability to undertake long-term evaluation. Secondly, this thesis provides methodological value for follow-up and similar studies by using data linking of scheme-beneficiary data with official performance datasets. Thus data availability problems are avoided through the use of secondary data. Thirdly, this thesis builds the evidence, through the application of a longitudinal impact study of small business support in England, covering seven years of post intervention data. This illustrates the variability of results for different evaluation periods, and the value in using multiple years of data for a robust understanding of support impact. For survival, impact of assistance is found to be immediate, but limited. Concerning growth, significant impact centres on a two to three year period post intervention for the linear selection and quantile regression models – positive for employment and turnover, negative for productivity. Attribution of impact may present a problem for subsequent periods. The results clearly support the argument for the use of longitudinal data and analysis, and a greater appreciation by evaluators of the factor time. This analysis recommends a time frame of four to five years post intervention for soft business support evaluation.

When moving information online diminishes change:advisory services to SMEs

Improving the performance of private sector small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in a cost effective manner is a major concern for government. Governments have saved costs by moving information online rather than through more expensive face-to-face exchanges between advisers and clients. Building on previous work that distinguished between types of advice, this article evaluates whether these changes to delivery mechanisms affect the type of advice received. Using a multinomial logit model of 1334 cases of business advice to small firms collected in England, the study found that advice to improve capabilities was taken by smaller firms who were less likely to have limited liability or undertake business planning. SMEs sought word-of-mouth referrals before taking internal, capability-enhancing advice. This is also the case when that advice was part of a wider package of assistance involving both internal and external aspects. Only when firms took advice that used extant capabilities did they rely on the Internet. Therefore, when the Internet is privileged over face-to-face advice the changes made by each recipient of advice are likely to diminish causing less impact from advice within the economy. It implies that fewer firms will adopt the sorts of management practices that would improve their productivity. © 2014 Taylor & Francis.

Evaluating the additionality of public sector assistance to Irish firms: a question of ownership?

This article presents an innovative approach to estimating the additionality of financial assistance awarded to firms by an Irish regional development agency. The 'self assessment approach' is used to derive estimates of deadweight and displacement for firms in the Shannon region of Ireland. Irish studies have derived high estimates of deadweight by international standards. In light of this, and the fact that successive Irish governments have placed emphasis on Foreign Direct Investment as an engine for growth, the primary objective here is to address the question of whether the type of firm ownership matters with respect to resulting deadweight and/or displacement estimates. The latter question is addressed using logistic regression analysis to test whether, ceteris paribus, firm ownership is a key-determining factor for estimates of deadweight and/or displacement. The results show that ownership does not matter in the case of deadweight, but regarding displacement there are differences between indigenous and foreign-owned firms albeit at very low levels. More precisely, as expected, indigenously owned firms are more likely to lead to higher estimates of displacement.

Firm-level productivity growth in Northern Ireland:the impact of exporting, innovation and public financial assistance

Motivated by the historically poor productivity performance of Northern Ireland firms and the longstanding productivity gap with the UK, the aim of this thesis is to examine, through the use of firm-level data, how exporting, innovation and public financial assistance impact on firm productivity growth. These particular activities are investigated due to the continued policy focus on their link to productivity growth and the theoretical claims of a direct positive relationship. In order to undertake these analyses a newly constructed dataset is used which links together cross-sectional and longitudinal data over the 1998-2008 period from the Annual Business Survey, the Manufacturing Sales and Export Survey; the Community Innovation Survey and Invest NI Selective Financial Assistance (SFA) payment data. Econometric methodologies are employed to estimate each of the relationships with regards to productivity growth, making use in particular of Heckman selection techniques and propensity score matching to take account of critical issues of endogeneity and selection bias. The results show that more productive firms self-select into exporting but there is no resulting productivity effect from starting to export; contesting the argument for learning-by-exporting. Product innovation is also found to have no impact on productivity growth over a four year period but there is evidence of a negative process innovation impact, likely to reflect temporary learning effects. Finally SFA assistance, including the amount of the payment, is found to have no short term impact on productivity growth suggesting substantial deadweight effects and/or targeting of inefficient firms. The results provide partial evidence as to why Northern Ireland has failed to narrow the productivity gap with the rest of the UK. The analyses further highlight the need for access to comprehensive firm-level data for research purposes, not least to underpin robust evidence-based policymaking.