Mathematical modelling of patient risks in a hospital environment, using multiple regression analysis

The aim of this research work was primarily to examine the relevance of patient parameters, ward structures, procedures and practices, in respect of the potential hazards of wound cross-infection and nasal colonisation with multiple resistant strains of Staphylococcus aureus, which it is thought might provide a useful indication of a patient's general susceptibility to wound infection. Information from a large cross-sectional survey involving 12,000 patients from some 41 hospitals and 375 wards was collected over a five-year period from 1967-72, and its validity checked before any subsequent analysis was carried out. Many environmental factors and procedures which had previously been thought (but never conclusively proved) to have an influence on wound infection or nasal colonisation rates, were assessed, and subsequently dismissed as not being significant, provided that the standard of the current range of practices and procedures is maintained and not allowed to deteriorate. Retrospective analysis revealed that the probability of wound infection was influenced by the patient's age, duration of pre-operative hospitalisation, sex, type of wound, presence and type of drain, number of patients in ward, and other special risk factors, whilst nasal colonisation was found to be influenced by the patient's age, total duration of hospitalisation, sex, antibiotics, proportion of occupied beds in the ward, average distance between bed centres and special risk factors. A multi-variate regression analysis technique was used to develop statistical models, consisting of variable patient and environmental factors which were found to have a significant influence on the risks pertaining to wound infection and nasal colonisation. A relationship between wound infection and nasal colonisation was then established and this led to the development of a more advanced model for predicting wound infections, taking advantage of the additional knowledge of the patient's state of nasal colonisation prior to operation.

Efficacy and safety of second-generation antipsychotic long-acting injections (SGA LAIs) in maintenance treatment of bipolar disorder:protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION: Bipolar disorder requires long-term treatment but non-adherence is a common problem. Antipsychotic long-acting injections (LAIs) have been suggested to improve adherence but none are licensed in the UK for bipolar. However, the use of second-generation antipsychotics (SGA) LAIs in bipolar is not uncommon albeit there is a lack of systematic review in this area. This study aims to systematically review safety and efficacy of SGA LAIs in the maintenance treatment of bipolar disorder. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The protocol is based on Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) and will include only randomised controlled trials comparing SGA LAIs in bipolar. PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane Library (CENTRAL), PsychINFO, LiLACS, http://www.clinicaltrials.gov will be searched, with no language restriction, from 2000 to January 2016 as first SGA LAIs came to the market after 2000. Manufacturers of SGA LAIs will also be contacted. Primary efficacy outcome is relapse rate or delayed time to relapse or reduction in hospitalisation and primary safety outcomes are drop-out rates, all-cause discontinuation and discontinuation due to adverse events. Qualitative reporting of evidence will be based on 21 items listed on standards for reporting qualitative research (SRQR) focusing on study quality (assessed using the Jadad score, allocation concealment and data analysis), risk of bias and effect size. Publication bias will be assessed using funnel plots. If sufficient data are available meta-analysis will be performed with primary effect size as relative risk presented with 95% CI. Sensitivity analysis, conditional on number of studies and sample size, will be carried out on manic versus depressive symptoms and monotherapy versus adjunctive therapy.

Health related quality of life and perception of stigmatisation in adolescents living with sickle cell disease in Nigeria:a cross sectional study

Background: Sickle cell disease impacts the physical, emotional and psychological aspects of life of the affected persons, often times exposing them to disease associated stigma from the society and alters the health related quality of life (HRQoL). This study compared the HRQoL of adolescents with sickle cell disease with their healthy peers, identified socio-demographic and clinical factors impacting HRQoL, and determined the extent and effects of SCD related stigma on quality of life. Procedure: We conducted a cross-sectional survey among 160 adolescents, 80 with SCD and 80 adolescents without SCD. Socio-demographic and clinical data were collected using a pre-tested questionnaire. HRQoL was investigated using the Short Form (SF-36v2) Health Survey. SCD perceived stigma was measured using an adaptation of a perceived stigma questionnaire. Results: Adolescents with SCD have significantly worse HRQoL than their peers in all of the most important dimensions of HRQoL (physical functioning, physical roles limitation, emotional roles limitation, social functioning, bodily pain, vitality and general health perception) except mental health. Recent hospital admission and SCD related complication further lowered HRQoL scores. Over seventy percent of adolescents with SCD have moderate to high level of perception of stigmatisation. Hospitalisation, SCD complication, SCD stigma were inversely, and significantly associated with HRQoL. Conclusions: Adolescents living with SCD in Nigeria have lower health related quality of life compared to their healthy peers. They also experience stigma that impacts their HRQoL. Complications of SCD and hospital admissions contribute significantly to this impairment. Pediatr Blood Cancer 2015;62:1245-1251.