Managing uncertainty in complex stochastic models: design and emulation of a Rabies model

In this paper we present a novel method for emulating a stochastic, or random output, computer model and show its application to a complex rabies model. The method is evaluated both in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency on synthetic data and the rabies model. We address the issue of experimental design and provide empirical evidence on the effectiveness of utilizing replicate model evaluations compared to a space-filling design. We employ the Mahalanobis error measure to validate the heteroscedastic Gaussian process based emulator predictions for both the mean and (co)variance. The emulator allows efficient screening to identify important model inputs and better understanding of the complex behaviour of the rabies model.

Classrooms as complex adaptive systems:a relational model

In this article, we describe and model the language classroom as a complex adaptive system (see Logan & Schumann, 2005). We argue that linear, categorical descriptions of classroom processes and interactions do not sufficiently explain the complex nature of classrooms, and cannot account for how classroom change occurs (or does not occur), over time. A relational model of classrooms is proposed which focuses on the relations between different elements (physical, environmental, cognitive, social) in the classroom and on how their interaction is crucial in understanding and describing classroom action.

Early design verification of complex assembly variability using a hybrid - model based and physical testing - methodology

Design verification in the digital domain, using model-based principles, is a key research objective to address the industrial requirement for reduced physical testing and prototyping. For complex assemblies, the verification of design and the associated production methods is currently fragmented, prolonged and sub-optimal, as it uses digital and physical verification stages that are deployed in a sequential manner using multiple systems. This paper describes a novel, hybrid design verification methodology that integrates model-based variability analysis with measurement data of assemblies, in order to reduce simulation uncertainty and allow early design verification from the perspective of satisfying key assembly criteria.

A hierarchical latent variable model for data visualization

Visualization has proven to be a powerful and widely-applicable tool the analysis and interpretation of data. Most visualization algorithms aim to find a projection from the data space down to a two-dimensional visualization space. However, for complex data sets living in a high-dimensional space it is unlikely that a single two-dimensional projection can reveal all of the interesting structure. We therefore introduce a hierarchical visualization algorithm which allows the complete data set to be visualized at the top level, with clusters and sub-clusters of data points visualized at deeper levels. The algorithm is based on a hierarchical mixture of latent variable models, whose parameters are estimated using the expectation-maximization algorithm. We demonstrate the principle of the approach first on a toy data set, and then apply the algorithm to the visualization of a synthetic data set in 12 dimensions obtained from a simulation of multi-phase flows in oil pipelines and to data in 36 dimensions derived from satellite images.

Causality and synchronisation in complex systems with applications to neuroscience

This thesis presents an investigation, of synchronisation and causality, motivated by problems in computational neuroscience. The thesis addresses both theoretical and practical signal processing issues regarding the estimation of interdependence from a set of multivariate data generated by a complex underlying dynamical system. This topic is driven by a series of problems in neuroscience, which represents the principal background motive behind the material in this work. The underlying system is the human brain and the generative process of the data is based on modern electromagnetic neuroimaging methods . In this thesis, the underlying functional of the brain mechanisms are derived from the recent mathematical formalism of dynamical systems in complex networks. This is justified principally on the grounds of the complex hierarchical and multiscale nature of the brain and it offers new methods of analysis to model its emergent phenomena. A fundamental approach to study the neural activity is to investigate the connectivity pattern developed by the brain’s complex network. Three types of connectivity are important to study: 1) anatomical connectivity refering to the physical links forming the topology of the brain network; 2) effective connectivity concerning with the way the neural elements communicate with each other using the brain’s anatomical structure, through phenomena of synchronisation and information transfer; 3) functional connectivity, presenting an epistemic concept which alludes to the interdependence between data measured from the brain network. The main contribution of this thesis is to present, apply and discuss novel algorithms of functional connectivities, which are designed to extract different specific aspects of interaction between the underlying generators of the data. Firstly, a univariate statistic is developed to allow for indirect assessment of synchronisation in the local network from a single time series. This approach is useful in inferring the coupling as in a local cortical area as observed by a single measurement electrode. Secondly, different existing methods of phase synchronisation are considered from the perspective of experimental data analysis and inference of coupling from observed data. These methods are designed to address the estimation of medium to long range connectivity and their differences are particularly relevant in the context of volume conduction, that is known to produce spurious detections of connectivity. Finally, an asymmetric temporal metric is introduced in order to detect the direction of the coupling between different regions of the brain. The method developed in this thesis is based on a machine learning extensions of the well known concept of Granger causality. The thesis discussion is developed alongside examples of synthetic and experimental real data. The synthetic data are simulations of complex dynamical systems with the intention to mimic the behaviour of simple cortical neural assemblies. They are helpful to test the techniques developed in this thesis. The real datasets are provided to illustrate the problem of brain connectivity in the case of important neurological disorders such as Epilepsy and Parkinson’s disease. The methods of functional connectivity in this thesis are applied to intracranial EEG recordings in order to extract features, which characterize underlying spatiotemporal dynamics before during and after an epileptic seizure and predict seizure location and onset prior to conventional electrographic signs. The methodology is also applied to a MEG dataset containing healthy, Parkinson’s and dementia subjects with the scope of distinguishing patterns of pathological from physiological connectivity.

Spectral pattern, grouping, and the pitches of complex tones and their components

Harmonically related components are typically heard as a unified entity with a rich timbre and a pitch corresponding to the fundamental frequency. Mistuning a component generally has four consequences: (i) the global pitch of the complex shifts in the same direction as the mistuning; (ii) the component makes a reduced contribution to global pitch; (iii) the component is heard out as a separate sound with a pure timbre; (iv) its pitch differs from that of a pure tone of equal frequency in a small but systematic way. Local interactions between neighbouring components cannot explain these effects; instead they are usually explained in terms of the global operation of a single harmonic-template mechanism. However, several observations indicate that separate mechanisms govern the selection of spectral components for perceptual fusion and for the computation of global pitch. First, an increase in mistuning causes a harmonic to be heard out before it begins to be excluded from the computation of global pitch. Second, a single even harmonic added to an odd-harmonic complex is typically more salient than its odd neighbours. Third, the mistuning of a component in frequency-shifted stimuli, or stimuli with a moderate spectral stretch, results in changes in salience and component pitch like those seen for harmonic stimuli. Fourth, the global pitch of frequency-shifted stimuli is predicted well by the weighted fit of a harmonic template, but, with the exception of the lowest component, the fusion of individual partials for shifted stimuli is best predicted by the common pattern of spectral spacing. Fifth, our sensitivity to spectral pattern is surprisingly resistant to random variations in component spacing induced by applying mistunings to several harmonics at once. These findings are evaluated in the context of an autocorrelogram model of the proposed pitch/grouping dissociation. © S. Hirzel Verlag · EAA.

Development of an in-vitro model system to investigate the mechanism of muscle protein catabolism induced by proteolysis-inducing factor

The mechanism of muscle protein catabolism induced by proteolysis-inducing factor, produced by cachexia-inducing murine and human tumours has been studied in vitro using C2C12 myoblasts and myotubes. In both myoblasts and myotubes protein degradation was enhanced by proteolysis-inducing factor after 24 h incubation. In myoblasts this followed a bell-shaped dose-response curve with maximal effects at a proteolysis-inducing factor concentration between 2 and 4 nM, while in myotubes increased protein degradation was seen at all concentrations of proteolysis-inducing factor up to 10 nM, again with a maximum of 4 nM proteolysis-inducing factor. Protein degradation induced by proteolysis-inducing factor was completely attenuated in the presence of cycloheximide (1 μM), suggesting a requirement for new protein synthesis. In both myoblasts and myotubes protein degradation was accompanied by an increased expression of the α-type subunits of the 20S proteasome as well as functional activity of the proteasome, as determined by the 'chymotrypsin-like' enzyme activity. There was also an increased expression of the 19S regulatory complex as well as the ubiquitin-conjugating enzyme (E214k), and in myotubes a decrease in myosin expression was seen with increasing concentrations of proteolysis-inducing factor. These results show that proteolysis-inducing factor co-ordinately upregulates both ubiquitin conjugation and proteasome activity in both myoblasts and myotubes and may play an important role in the muscle wasting seen in cancer cachexia. © 2002 Cancer Research UK.

Examining the strategy development process through the lens of complex adaptive systems theory

The development of strategy remains a debate for academics and a concern for practitioners. Published research has focused on producing models for strategy development and on studying how strategy is developed in organisations. The Operational Research literature has highlighted the importance of considering complexity within strategic decision making; but little has been done to link strategy development with complexity theories, despite organisations and organisational environments becoming increasingly more complex. We review the dominant streams of strategy development and complexity theories. Our theoretical investigation results in the first conceptual framework which links an established Strategic Operational Research model, the Strategy Development Process model, with complexity via Complex Adaptive Systems theory. We present preliminary findings from the use of this conceptual framework applied to a longitudinal, in-depth case study, to demonstrate the advantages of using this integrated conceptual model. Our research shows that the conceptual model proposed provides rich data and allows for a more holistic examination of the strategy development process. © 2012 Operational Research Society Ltd. All rights reserved.

Strategic development process and complex adaptive systems

The two areas of theory upon which this research was based were „strategy development process?(SDP) and „complex adaptive systems? (CAS), as part of complexity theory, focused on human social organisations. The literature reviewed showed that there is a paucity of empirical work and theory in the overlap of the two areas, providing an opportunity for contributions to knowledge in each area of theory, and for practitioners. An inductive approach was adopted for this research, in an effort to discover new insights to the focus area of study. It was undertaken from within an interpretivist paradigm, and based on a novel conceptual framework. The organisationally intimate nature of the research topic, and the researcher?s circumstances required a research design that was both in-depth and long term. The result was a single, exploratory, case study, which included use of data from 44 in-depth, semi-structured interviews, from 36 people, involving all the top management team members and significant other staff members; observations, rumour and grapevine (ORG) data; and archive data, over a 5½ year period (2005 – 2010). Findings confirm the validity of the conceptual framework, and that complex adaptive systems theory has potential to extend strategy development process theory. It has shown how and why the strategy process developed in the case study organisation by providing deeper insights to the behaviour of the people, their backgrounds, and interactions. Broad predictions of the „latent strategy development? process and some elements of the strategy content are also possible. Based on this research, it is possible to extend the utility of the SDP model by including peoples? behavioural characteristics within the organisation, via complex adaptive systems theory. Further research is recommended to test limits of the application of the conceptual framework and improve its efficacy with more organisations across a variety of sectors.

Generic experiments at the sump model "Zittauer Strömungswanne" (ZSW) for the behaviour of mineral wool in the sump and the reactor core

The investigation of insulation debris transport, sedimentation, penetration into the reactor core and head loss build up becomes important to reactor safety research for PWR and BWR, when considering the long-term behaviour of emergency core cooling systems during loss of coolant accidents. Research projects are being performed in cooperation between the University of Applied Sciences Zittau/Görlitz and the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf. The projects include experimental investigations of different processes and phenomena of insulation debris in coolant flow and the development of CFD models. Generic complex experiments serve for building up a data base for the validation of models for single effects and their coupling in CFD codes. This paper includes the description of the experimental facility for complex generic experiments (ZSW), an overview about experimental boundary conditions and results for upstream and down-stream phenomena as well as for the long-time behaviour due to corrosive processes. © Carl Hanser Verlag, München.

Spiral mechanisms are required to account for summation of complex motion components

Stimuli from one family of complex motions are defined by their spiral pitch, where cardinal axes represent signed expansion and rotation. Intermediate spirals are represented by intermediate pitches. It is well established that vision contains mechanisms that sum over space and direction to detect these stimuli (Morrone et al., Nature 376 (1995) 507) and one possibility is that four cardinal mechanisms encode the entire family. We extended earlier work (Meese & Harris, Vision Research 41 (2001) 1901) using subthreshold summation of random dot kinematograms and a two-interval forced choice technique to investigate this possibility. In our main experiments, the spiral pitch of one component was fixed and that of another was varied in steps of 15° relative to the first. Regardless of whether the fixed component was aligned with cardinal axes or an intermediate spiral, summation to-coherence-threshold between the two components declined as a function of their difference in spiral pitch. Similar experiments showed that none of the following were critical design features or stimulus parameters for our results: superposition of signal dots, limited life-time dots, the presence of speed gradients, stimulus size or the number of dots. A simplex algorithm was used to fit models containing mechanisms spaced at a pitch of either 90° (cardinal model) or 45° (cardinal+model) and combined using a fourth-root summation rule. For both models, direction half-bandwidth was equated for all mechanisms and was the only free parameter. Only the cardinal+model could account for the full set of results. We conclude that the detection of complex motion in human vision requires both cardinal and spiral mechanisms with a half-bandwidth of approximately 46°. © 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Promoting scholarship - The way forward: Learning & teaching research in a complex environment – A typology

This paper provides a critical overview into a distinctive typology of Learning and Teaching Research developed at a relatively small, research-led UK University. Based upon research into staff perceptions of the relationship between learning and teaching research and practice, the model represents an holistic approach to evidence-based learning and teaching practice in Contemporary Higher Education.

An Investigation into the adoption and implementation of computer aided production management systems:using the Rogers model of adoption and implementation and a social constuctionist account of technology

The research investigates the processes of adoption and implementation, by organisations, of computer aided production management systems (CAPM). It is organised around two different theoretical perspectives. The first part is informed by the Rogers model of the diffusion, adoption and implementation of innovations, and the second part by a social constructionist approach to technology. Rogers' work is critically evaluated and a model of adoption and implementation is distilled from it and applied to a set of empirical case studies. In the light of the case study data, strengths and weaknesses of the model are identified. It is argued that the model is too rational and linear to provide an adequate explanation of adoption processes. It is useful for understanding processes of implementation but requires further development. The model is not able to adequately encompass complex computer based technologies. However, the idea of 'reinvention' is identified as Roger's key concept but it needs to be conceptually extended. Both Roger's model and definition of CAPM found in the literature from production engineering tend to treat CAPM in objectivist terms. The problems with this view are addressed through a review of the literature on the sociology of technology, and it is argued that a social constructionist approach offers a more useful framework for understanding CAPM, its nature, adoption, implementation, and use. CAPM it is argued, must be understood on terms of the ways in which it is constituted in discourse, as part of a 'struggle for meaning' on the part of academics, professional engineers, suppliers, and users.

Contrast sensitivity for complex and random gratings

This thesis studied the effect of (i) the number of grating components and (ii) parameter randomisation on root-mean-square (r.m.s.) contrast sensitivity and spatial integration. The effectiveness of spatial integration without external spatial noise depended on the number of equally spaced orientation components in the sum of gratings. The critical area marking the saturation of spatial integration was found to decrease when the number of components increased from 1 to 5-6 but increased again at 8-16 components. The critical area behaved similarly as a function of the number of grating components when stimuli consisted of 3, 6 or 16 components with different orientations and/or phases embedded in spatial noise. Spatial integration seemed to depend on the global Fourier structure of the stimulus. Spatial integration was similar for sums of two vertical cosine or sine gratings with various Michelson contrasts in noise. The critical area for a grating sum was found to be a sum of logarithmic critical areas for the component gratings weighted by their relative Michelson contrasts. The human visual system was modelled as a simple image processor where the visual stimuli is first low-pass filtered by the optical modulation transfer function of the human eye and secondly high-pass filtered, up to the spatial cut-off frequency determined by the lowest neural sampling density, by the neural modulation transfer function of the visual pathways. The internal noise is then added before signal interpretation occurs in the brain. The detection is mediated by a local spatially windowed matched filter. The model was extended to include complex stimuli and its applicability to the data was found to be successful. The shape of spatial integration function was similar for non-randomised and randomised simple and complex gratings. However, orientation and/or phase randomised reduced r.m.s contrast sensitivity by a factor of 2. The effect of parameter randomisation on spatial integration was modelled under the assumption that human observers change the observer strategy from cross-correlation (i.e., a matched filter) to auto-correlation detection when uncertainty is introduced to the task. The model described the data accurately.

A systems and cybernetic perspective on complex problem solving

This thesis is concerned with Organisational Problem Solving. The work reflects the complexities of organisational problem situations and the eclectic approach that has been necessary to gain an understanding of the processes involved. The thesis is structured into three main parts. Part I describes the author's understanding of problems and suitable approaches. Chapter 2 identifies the Transcendental Realist (TR) view of science (Harre 1970, Bhaskar 1975) as the best general framework for identifying suitable approaches to complex organisational problems. Chapter 3 discusses the relationship between Checkland's methodology (1972) and TR. The need to generate iconic (explanatory) models of the problem situation is identified and the ability of viable system modelling to supplement the modelling stage of the methodology is explored in Chapter 4. Chapter 5 builds further on the methodology to produce an original iconic model of the methodological process. The model characterises the mechanisms of organisational problem situations as well as desirable procedural steps. The Weltanschauungen (W's) or "world views" of key actors is recognised as central to the mechanisms involved. Part II describes the experience which prompted the theoretical investigation. Chapter 6 describes the first year of the project. The success of this stage is attributed to the predominance of a single W. Chapter 7 describes the changes in the organisation which made the remaining phase of the project difficult. These difficulties are attributed to a failure to recognise the importance of differing W's. Part III revisits the theoretical and organisational issues. Chapter 8 identifies a range of techniques embodying W's which are compatible with .the framework of Part I and which might usefully supplement it. Chapter 9 characterises possible W's in the sponsoring organisation. Throughout the work, an attempt 1s made to reflect the process as well as the product of the author's leaving.