Computer based approaches to managerial decision making:optimism, heuristics and simulation

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Classifying clinical decision making:interpreting nursing intuition, heuristics and medical diagnosis

This is the second of two linked papers exploring decision making in nursing. The first paper, 'Classifying clinical decision making: a unifying approach' investigated difficulties with applying a range of decision-making theories to nursing practice. This is due to the diversity of terminology and theoretical concepts used, which militate against nurses being able to compare the outcomes of decisions analysed within different frameworks. It is therefore problematic for nurses to assess how good their decisions are, and where improvements can be made. However, despite the range of nomenclature, it was argued that there are underlying similarities between all theories of decision processes and that these should be exposed through integration within a single explanatory framework. A proposed solution was to use a general model of psychological classification to clarify and compare terms, concepts and processes identified across the different theories. The unifying framework of classification was described and this paper operationalizes it to demonstrate how different approaches to clinical decision making can be re-interpreted as classification behaviour. Particular attention is focused on classification in nursing, and on re-evaluating heuristic reasoning, which has been particularly prone to theoretical and terminological confusion. Demonstrating similarities in how different disciplines make decisions should promote improved multidisciplinary collaboration and a weakening of clinical elitism, thereby enhancing organizational effectiveness in health care and nurses' professional status. This is particularly important as nurses' roles continue to expand to embrace elements of managerial, medical and therapeutic work. Analysing nurses' decisions as classification behaviour will also enhance clinical effectiveness, and assist in making nurses' expertise more visible. In addition, the classification framework explodes the myth that intuition, traditionally associated with nurses' decision making, is less rational and scientific than other approaches.

A robustness framework for monitoring real options under uncertainty

This paper presents a problem structuring methodology to assess real option decisions in the face of unpredictability. Based on principles of robustness analysis and scenario planning, we demonstrate how decision-aiding can facilitate participation in projects setting and achieve effective decision making through the use of real options reasoning. We argue that robustness heuristics developed in earlier studies can be practical proxies for real options performance, hence indicators of efficient flexible planning. The developed framework also highlights how to integrate real options solutions in firms’ strategic plans and operating actions. The use of the methodology in a location decision application is provided for illustration.

Integrated analytic hierarchy process and its applications:a literature review

Due to its wide applicability and ease of use, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been studied extensively for the last 20 years. Recently, it is observed that the focus has been confined to the applications of the integrated AHPs rather than the stand-alone AHP. The five tools that commonly combined with the AHP include mathematical programming, quality function deployment (QFD), meta-heuristics, SWOT analysis, and data envelopment analysis (DEA). This paper reviews the literature of the applications of the integrated AHPs. Related articles appearing in the international journals from 1997 to 2006 are gathered and analyzed so that the following three questions can be answered: (i) which type of the integrated AHPs was paid most attention to? (ii) which area the integrated AHPs were prevalently applied to? (iii) is there any inadequacy of the approaches? Based on the inadequacy, if any, some improvements and possible future work are recommended. This research not only provides evidence that the integrated AHPs are better than the stand-alone AHP, but also aids the researchers and decision makers in applying the integrated AHPs effectively.

Component scheduling for chip shooter machines: a hybrid genetic algorithm approach

A chip shooter machine for electronic component assembly has a movable feeder carrier, a movable X–Y table carrying a printed circuit board (PCB), and a rotary turret with multiple assembly heads. This paper presents a hybrid genetic algorithm (HGA) to optimize the sequence of component placements and the arrangement of component types to feeders simultaneously for a chip shooter machine, that is, the component scheduling problem. The objective of the problem is to minimize the total assembly time. The GA developed in the paper hybridizes different search heuristics including the nearest-neighbor heuristic, the 2-opt heuristic, and an iterated swap procedure, which is a new improved heuristic. Compared with the results obtained by other researchers, the performance of the HGA is superior in terms of the assembly time. Scope and purpose When assembling the surface mount components on a PCB, it is necessary to obtain the optimal sequence of component placements and the best arrangement of component types to feeders simultaneously in order to minimize the total assembly time. Since it is very difficult to obtain the optimality, a GA hybridized with several search heuristics is developed. The type of machines being studied is the chip shooter machine. This paper compares the algorithm with a simple GA. It shows that the performance of the algorithm is superior to that of the simple GA in terms of the total assembly time.

A hybrid genetic algorithm for component sequencing and feeder arrangement

This paper presents a hybrid genetic algorithm to optimize the sequence of component placements on a printed circuit board and the arrangement of component types to feeders simultaneously for a pick-and-place machine with multiple stationary feeders, a fixed board table and a movable placement head. The objective of the problem is to minimize the total travelling distance, or the travelling time, of the placement head. The genetic algorithm developed in the paper hybrisizes different search heuristics including the nearest neighbor heuristic, the 2-opt heuristic, and an iterated swap procedure, which is a new improving heuristic. Compared with the results obtained by other researchers, the performance of the hybrid genetic algorithm is superior to others in terms of the distance travelled by the placement head.

Lexical database enrichment through semi-automated morphological analysis

Derivational morphology proposes meaningful connections between words and is largely unrepresented in lexical databases. This thesis presents a project to enrich a lexical database with morphological links and to evaluate their contribution to disambiguation. A lexical database with sense distinctions was required. WordNet was chosen because of its free availability and widespread use. Its suitability was assessed through critical evaluation with respect to specifications and criticisms, using a transparent, extensible model. The identification of serious shortcomings suggested a portable enrichment methodology, applicable to alternative resources. Although 40% of the most frequent words are prepositions, they have been largely ignored by computational linguists, so addition of prepositions was also required. The preferred approach to morphological enrichment was to infer relations from phenomena discovered algorithmically. Both existing databases and existing algorithms can capture regular morphological relations, but cannot capture exceptions correctly; neither of them provide any semantic information. Some morphological analysis algorithms are subject to the fallacy that morphological analysis can be performed simply by segmentation. Morphological rules, grounded in observation and etymology, govern associations between and attachment of suffixes and contribute to defining the meaning of morphological relationships. Specifying character substitutions circumvents the segmentation fallacy. Morphological rules are prone to undergeneration, minimised through a variable lexical validity requirement, and overgeneration, minimised by rule reformulation and restricting monosyllabic output. Rules take into account the morphology of ancestor languages through co-occurrences of morphological patterns. Multiple rules applicable to an input suffix need their precedence established. The resistance of prefixations to segmentation has been addressed by identifying linking vowel exceptions and irregular prefixes. The automatic affix discovery algorithm applies heuristics to identify meaningful affixes and is combined with morphological rules into a hybrid model, fed only with empirical data, collected without supervision. Further algorithms apply the rules optimally to automatically pre-identified suffixes and break words into their component morphemes. To handle exceptions, stoplists were created in response to initial errors and fed back into the model through iterative development, leading to 100% precision, contestable only on lexicographic criteria. Stoplist length is minimised by special treatment of monosyllables and reformulation of rules. 96% of words and phrases are analysed. 218,802 directed derivational links have been encoded in the lexicon rather than the wordnet component of the model because the lexicon provides the optimal clustering of word senses. Both links and analyser are portable to an alternative lexicon. The evaluation uses the extended gloss overlaps disambiguation algorithm. The enriched model outperformed WordNet in terms of recall without loss of precision. Failure of all experiments to outperform disambiguation by frequency reflects on WordNet sense distinctions.

Expert systems for fault analysis

The initial aim of this research was to investigate the application of expert Systems, or Knowledge Base Systems technology to the automated synthesis of Hazard and Operability Studies. Due to the generic nature of Fault Analysis problems and the way in which Knowledge Base Systems work, this goal has evolved into a consideration of automated support for Fault Analysis in general, covering HAZOP, Fault Tree Analysis, FMEA and Fault Diagnosis in the Process Industries. This thesis described a proposed architecture for such an Expert System. The purpose of the System is to produce a descriptive model of faults and fault propagation from a description of the physical structure of the plant. From these descriptive models, the desired Fault Analysis may be produced. The way in which this is done reflects the complexity of the problem which, in principle, encompasses the whole of the discipline of Process Engineering. An attempt is made to incorporate the perceived method that an expert uses to solve the problem; keywords, heuristics and guidelines from techniques such as HAZOP and Fault Tree Synthesis are used. In a truly Expert System, the performance of the system is strongly dependent on the high quality of the knowledge that is incorporated. This expert knowledge takes the form of heuristics or rules of thumb which are used in problem solving. This research has shown that, for the application of fault analysis heuristics, it is necessary to have a representation of the details of fault propagation within a process. This helps to ensure the robustness of the system - a gradual rather than abrupt degradation at the boundaries of the domain knowledge.

An investigation into the use of knowledge representation in computer-integrated manufacturing

In a certain automobile factory, batch-painting of the body types in colours is controlled by an allocation system. This tries to balance production with orders, whilst making optimally-sized batches of colours. Sequences of cars entering painting cannot be optimised for easy selection of colour and batch size. `Over-production' is not allowed, in order to reduce buffer stocks of unsold vehicles. Paint quality is degraded by random effects. This thesis describes a toolkit which supports IKBS in an object-centred formalism. The intended domain of use for the toolkit is flexible manufacturing. A sizeable application program was developed, using the toolkit, to test the validity of the IKBS approach in solving the real manufacturing problem above, for which an existing conventional program was already being used. A detailed statistical analysis of the operating circumstances of the program was made to evaluate the likely need for the more flexible type of program for which the toolkit was intended. The IKBS program captures the many disparate and conflicting constraints in the scheduling knowledge and emulates the behaviour of the program installed in the factory. In the factory system, many possible, newly-discovered, heuristics would be awkward to represent and it would be impossible to make many new extensions. The representation scheme is capable of admitting changes to the knowledge, relying on the inherent encapsulating properties of object-centres programming to protect and isolate data. The object-centred scheme is supported by an enhancement of the `C' programming language and runs under BSD 4.2 UNIX. The structuring technique, using objects, provides a mechanism for separating control of expression of rule-based knowledge from the knowledge itself and allowing explicit `contexts', within which appropriate expression of knowledge can be done. Facilities are provided for acquisition of knowledge in a consistent manner.

A study of the problem solving strategies used by expert and novice designers

This research project focused upon the design strategies adopted by expert and novice designers. It was based upon a desire to compare the design problem solving strategies of novices, in this case key stage three pupils studying technolgy within the United Kingdom National Curriculum, with designers who could be considered to have developed expertise. The findings helped to provide insights into potential teaching strategies to suit novice designers. Verbal protocols were made as samples of expert and novice designers solved a design problem and talked aloud as they worked. The verbalisations were recorded on video tape. The protocols were transcribed and segmented, with each segment being assigned to a predetermined coding system which represented a model of design problem solving. The results of the encoding were analysed and consideration was also given to the general design strategy and heuristics used by the expert and novice designers. The drawings and models produced during the generation of the protocols were also analysed and considered. A number of significant differences between the problem solving strategies adopted by the expert and novice designers were identified. First of all, differences were observed in the way expert and novice designers used the problem statement and solution validation during the process. Differences were also identified in the way holistic solutions were generated near the start of the process, and also in the cycles of exploration and the processes of integration. The way design and technological knowledge was used provided further insights into the differences between experts and novices, as did the role of drawing and modelling during the process. In more general terms, differences were identified in the heuristics and overall design strategies adopted by the expert and novice designers. The above findings provided a basis for discussing teaching strategies appropriate for novice designers. Finally, opportunities for future research were discussed.

Cost models for engineering services

This thesis describes the procedure and results from four years research undertaken through the IHD (Interdisciplinary Higher Degrees) Scheme at Aston University in Birmingham, sponsored by the SERC (Science and Engineering Research Council) and Monk Dunstone Associates, Chartered Quantity Surveyors. A stochastic networking technique VERT (Venture Evaluation and Review Technique) was used to model the pre-tender costs of public health, heating ventilating, air-conditioning, fire protection, lifts and electrical installations within office developments. The model enabled the quantity surveyor to analyse, manipulate and explore complex scenarios which previously had defied ready mathematical analysis. The process involved the examination of historical material costs, labour factors and design performance data. Components and installation types were defined and formatted. Data was updated and adjusted using mechanical and electrical pre-tender cost indices and location, selection of contractor, contract sum, height and site condition factors. Ranges of cost, time and performance data were represented by probability density functions and defined by constant, uniform, normal and beta distributions. These variables and a network of the interrelationships between services components provided the framework for analysis. The VERT program, in this particular study, relied upon Monte Carlo simulation to model the uncertainties associated with pre-tender estimates of all possible installations. The computer generated output in the form of relative and cumulative frequency distributions of current element and total services costs, critical path analyses and details of statistical parameters. From this data alternative design solutions were compared, the degree of risk associated with estimates was determined, heuristics were tested and redeveloped, and cost significant items were isolated for closer examination. The resultant models successfully combined cost, time and performance factors and provided the quantity surveyor with an appreciation of the cost ranges associated with the various engineering services design options.

Palette-colouring: a belief propagation approach

We consider a variation of the prototype combinatorial optimization problem known as graph colouring. Our optimization goal is to colour the vertices of a graph with a fixed number of colours, in a way to maximize the number of different colours present in the set of nearest neighbours of each given vertex. This problem, which we pictorially call palette-colouring, has been recently addressed as a basic example of a problem arising in the context of distributed data storage. Even though it has not been proved to be NP-complete, random search algorithms find the problem hard to solve. Heuristics based on a naive belief propagation algorithm are observed to work quite well in certain conditions. In this paper, we build upon the mentioned result, working out the correct belief propagation algorithm, which needs to take into account the many-body nature of the constraints present in this problem. This method improves the naive belief propagation approach at the cost of increased computational effort. We also investigate the emergence of a satisfiable-to-unsatisfiable 'phase transition' as a function of the vertex mean degree, for different ensembles of sparse random graphs in the large size ('thermodynamic') limit.

Effect of fatigue on consumers' advertising processing

Huge advertising budgets are invested by firms to reach and convince potential consumers to buy their products. To optimize these investments, it is fundamental not only to ensure that appropriate consumers will be reached, but also that they will be in appropriate reception conditions. Marketing research has focused on the way consumers react to advertising, as well as on some individual and contextual factors that could mediate or moderate the ad impact on consumers (e.g. motivation and ability to process information or attitudes toward advertising). Nevertheless, a factor that potentially influences consumers’ advertising reactions has not yet been studied in marketing research: fatigue. Fatigue can yet impact key variables of advertising processing, such as cognitive resources availability (Lieury 2004). Fatigue is felt when the body warns to stop an activity (or inactivity) to have some rest, allowing the individual to compensate for fatigue effects. Dittner et al. (2004) defines it as “the state of weariness following a period of exertion, mental or physical, characterized by a decreased capacity for work and reduced efficiency to respond to stimuli.’’ It signals that resources will lack if we continue with the ongoing activity. According to Schmidtke (1969), fatigue leads to troubles in information reception, in perception, in coordination, in attention getting, in concentration and in thinking. In addition, for Markle (1984) fatigue generates a decrease in memory, and in communication ability, whereas it increases time reaction, and number of errors. Thus, fatigue may have large effects on advertising processing. We suggest that fatigue determines the level of available resources. Some research about consumer responses to advertising claim that complexity is a fundamental element to take into consideration. Complexity determines the cognitive efforts the consumer must provide to understand the message (Putrevu et al. 2004). Thus, we suggest that complexity determines the level of required resources. To study this complex question about need and provision of cognitive resources, we draw upon Resource Matching Theory. Anand and Sternthal (1989, 1990) are the first to state the Resource Matching principle, saying that an ad is most persuasive when the resources required to process it match the resources the viewer is willing and able to provide. They show that when the required resources exceed those available, the message is not entirely processed by the consumer. And when there are too many available resources comparing to those required, the viewer elaborates critical or unrelated thoughts. According to the Resource Matching theory, the level of resource demanded by an ad can be high or low, and is mostly determined by the ad’s layout (Peracchio and Myers-Levy, 1997). We manipulate the level of required resources using three levels of ad complexity (low – high – extremely high). On the other side, the resource availability of an ad viewer is determined by lots of contextual and individual variables. We manipulate the level of available resources using two levels of fatigue (low – high). Tired viewers want to limit the processing effort to minimal resource requirements by making heuristics, forming overall impression at first glance. It will be easier for them to decode the message when ads are very simple. On the contrary, the most effective ads for viewers who are not tired are complex enough to draw their attention and fully use their resources. They will use more analytical strategies, looking at the details of the ad. However, if ads are too complex, they will be too difficult to understand. The viewer will be discouraged to process information and will overlook the ad. The objective of our research is to study fatigue as a moderating variable of advertising information processing. We run two experimental studies to assess the effect of fatigue on visual strategies, comprehension, persuasion and memorization. In study 1, thirty-five undergraduate students enrolled in a marketing research course participated in the experiment. The experimental design is 2 (tiredness level: between subjects) x 3 (ad complexity level: within subjects). Participants were randomly assigned a schedule time (morning: 8-10 am or evening: 10-12 pm) to perform the experiment. We chose to test subjects at various moments of the day to obtain maximum variance in their fatigue level. We use Morningness / Eveningness tendency of participants (Horne & Ostberg, 1976) as a control variable. We assess fatigue level using subjective measures - questionnaire with fatigue scales - and objective measures - reaction time and number of errors. Regarding complexity levels, we have designed our own ads in order to keep aspects other than complexity equal. We ran a pretest using the Resource Demands scale (Keller and Bloch 1997) and by rating them on complexity like Morrison and Dainoff (1972) to check for our complexity manipulation. We found three significantly different levels. After having completed the fatigue scales, participants are asked to view the ads on a screen, while their eye movements are recorded by the eye-tracker. Eye-tracking allows us to find out patterns of visual attention (Pieters and Warlop 1999). We are then able to infer specific respondents’ visual strategies according to their level of fatigue. Comprehension is assessed with a comprehension test. We collect measures of attitude change for persuasion and measures of recall and recognition at various points of time for memorization. Once the effect of fatigue will be determined across the student population, it is interesting to account for individual differences in fatigue severity and perception. Therefore, we run study 2, which is similar to the previous one except for the design: time of day is now within-subjects and complexity becomes between-subjects

Anticipatory control of long-range phase synchronization

Everyday human behaviour relies on our ability to predict outcomes on the basis of moment by moment information. Long-range neural phase synchronization has been hypothesized as a mechanism by which ‘predictions’ can exert an effect on the processing of incoming sensory events. Using magnetoencephalography (MEG) we have studied the relationship between the modulation of phase synchronization in a cerebral network of areas involved in visual target processing and the predictability of target occurrence. Our results reveal a striking increase in the modulation of phase synchronization associated with an increased probability of target occurrence. These observations are consistent with the hypothesis that long-range phase synchronization plays a critical functional role in humans' ability to effectively employ predictive heuristics.

Formal methods @ runtime

Heuristics, simulation, artificial intelligence techniques and combinations thereof have all been employed in the attempt to make computer systems adaptive, context-aware, reconfigurable and self-managing. This paper complements such efforts by exploring the possibility to achieve runtime adaptiveness using mathematically-based techniques from the area of formal methods. It is argued that formal methods @ runtime represents a feasible approach, and promising preliminary results are summarised to support this viewpoint. The survey of existing approaches to employing formal methods at runtime is accompanied by a discussion of their challenges and of the future research required to overcome them. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.