Causality and synchronisation in complex systems with applications to neuroscience

This thesis presents an investigation, of synchronisation and causality, motivated by problems in computational neuroscience. The thesis addresses both theoretical and practical signal processing issues regarding the estimation of interdependence from a set of multivariate data generated by a complex underlying dynamical system. This topic is driven by a series of problems in neuroscience, which represents the principal background motive behind the material in this work. The underlying system is the human brain and the generative process of the data is based on modern electromagnetic neuroimaging methods . In this thesis, the underlying functional of the brain mechanisms are derived from the recent mathematical formalism of dynamical systems in complex networks. This is justified principally on the grounds of the complex hierarchical and multiscale nature of the brain and it offers new methods of analysis to model its emergent phenomena. A fundamental approach to study the neural activity is to investigate the connectivity pattern developed by the brain’s complex network. Three types of connectivity are important to study: 1) anatomical connectivity refering to the physical links forming the topology of the brain network; 2) effective connectivity concerning with the way the neural elements communicate with each other using the brain’s anatomical structure, through phenomena of synchronisation and information transfer; 3) functional connectivity, presenting an epistemic concept which alludes to the interdependence between data measured from the brain network. The main contribution of this thesis is to present, apply and discuss novel algorithms of functional connectivities, which are designed to extract different specific aspects of interaction between the underlying generators of the data. Firstly, a univariate statistic is developed to allow for indirect assessment of synchronisation in the local network from a single time series. This approach is useful in inferring the coupling as in a local cortical area as observed by a single measurement electrode. Secondly, different existing methods of phase synchronisation are considered from the perspective of experimental data analysis and inference of coupling from observed data. These methods are designed to address the estimation of medium to long range connectivity and their differences are particularly relevant in the context of volume conduction, that is known to produce spurious detections of connectivity. Finally, an asymmetric temporal metric is introduced in order to detect the direction of the coupling between different regions of the brain. The method developed in this thesis is based on a machine learning extensions of the well known concept of Granger causality. The thesis discussion is developed alongside examples of synthetic and experimental real data. The synthetic data are simulations of complex dynamical systems with the intention to mimic the behaviour of simple cortical neural assemblies. They are helpful to test the techniques developed in this thesis. The real datasets are provided to illustrate the problem of brain connectivity in the case of important neurological disorders such as Epilepsy and Parkinson’s disease. The methods of functional connectivity in this thesis are applied to intracranial EEG recordings in order to extract features, which characterize underlying spatiotemporal dynamics before during and after an epileptic seizure and predict seizure location and onset prior to conventional electrographic signs. The methodology is also applied to a MEG dataset containing healthy, Parkinson’s and dementia subjects with the scope of distinguishing patterns of pathological from physiological connectivity.

Causality in crude oil prices

Economic media inform on prices of three well established crude oil benchmarks: Brent, WTI and Dubai Fateh. The relevance of these is however declining with their low output - motivating investigation of the pricing dynamics. We apply Granger causality tests to study the price dependencies of 32 crude oils. The aim is to establish what crudes are setting the prices and what crudes are just following the general market trends. The investigation is performed globally as well as for different quality, geographical and organisational segments. The results indicate that crude oil price analysts should follow at least four different crudes that are good price indicators. WTI and Brent still lead the market, but they are not the only crude prices worth paying attention to. In particular, Russian Urals drives global prices in a significant way, and Iran Seri Kerir is a significant price setter within OPEC. Dubai Fateh does not display any significant influence as a price setter, which confirms the lack of dominant benchmark within the segment of medium quality crudes.

Causality in crude oil prices

Crude oil markets witness growing disparity between the quality of crudes supplied and demanded in the market. The market share of low-quality crudes is increasing due to the depletion of old fields and increasing demand. This is unnerving the practitioners and affecting the relevance of the traditional benchmark crudes due to the lack of lower quality benchmarks (Montepeque, 2005). In this article, we apply Granger causality tests to study the price dependence of 32 crudes in order to establish which crudes drive other prices and which ones simply follow general market trends. Our results indicate that some of the old benchmarks are still relevant while others can be disregarded. Our results also interestingly show that the low-quality Mediterranean Russian Urals crude, introduced in the late 1990s, has emerged recently as a significant driver of global prices. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.

The causal relationship between information and communication technology and foreign direct investment

This paper investigates the simultaneous causal relationship between investments in information and communication technology (ICT) and flows of foreign direct investment (FDI), with reference to its implications on economic growth. For the empirical analysis we use data from 23 major countries with heterogeneous economic development for the period 1976-99. Our causality test results suggest that there is a causal relationship from ICT to FDI in developed countries, which means that a higher level of ICT investment leads to an increase inflow of FDI. ICT may contribute to economic growth indirectly by attracting more FDI. Contrarily, we could not find significant causality from ICT to FDI in developing countries. Instead, we have partial evidence of opposite causality relationship: the inflow of FDI causes further increases in ICT investment and production capacity. © United Nations University 2006.

The UK productivity gap in the service sector: do management practices matter?

Purpose – This paper aims to contribute to the debate on the drivers of the productivity gap that exists between the UK and its major international competitors. Design/methodology/approach – From the macro perspective the paper explores the quantitative evidence on the productivity differentials and how they are measured. From the micro perspective, the article explores the quantitative evidence on the role of management practices claimed to be a key determinant in promoting firm competitiveness and in bridging the UK gap. Findings – This study suggests that management practices are an ambiguous driver of firm productivity and higher firm performance. On the methodological side, qualitative and subjective measures of either management practices or firm performance are often used. This makes the results not comparable across studies, across firms or even within firms over time. Productivity and profitability are often and erroneously interchangeably used while productivity is only one element of firm performance. On the other hand, management practices are multi-dimensional constructs that generally do not demonstrate a straightforward relationship with productivity variables. To assume that they are the only driver of higher productivity may be misleading. Moreover, there is evidence of an inverse causal relationship between management practices and firm performance. This calls into question most empirical results of the extant literature based on the unidirectional assumption of direct causality between management practices and firm performance. Research limitations/implications – These and other issues suggest that more research is needed to deepen the understanding of the UK productivity gap and more quantitative evidence should be provided on the way in which management practices contribute to the UK competitiveness. Their impact is not easily measurable due to their complexity and their complementary nature and this is a fertile ground for further research. Originality/value – This paper brings together the evidence on the UK productivity gap and its main drivers, provided by the economics, management and performance measurement literature. This issue scores very highly in the agenda of policy makers and academics and has important implications for practitioners interested in evaluating the impact of managerial best practices.

Intelligent execution monitoring and error analysis in planning involving processes

An intelligent agent, operating in an external world which cannot be fully described in its internal world model, must be able to monitor the success of a previously generated plan and to respond to any errors which may have occurred. The process of error analysis requires the ability to reason in an expert fashion about time and about processes occurring in the world. Reasoning about time is needed to deal with causality. Reasoning about processes is needed since the direct effects of a plan action can be completely specified when the plan is generated, but the indirect effects cannot. For example, the action `open tap' leads with certainty to `tap open', whereas whether there will be a fluid flow and how long it might last is more difficult to predict. The majority of existing planning systems cannot handle these kinds of reasoning, thus limiting their usefulness. This thesis argues that both kinds of reasoning require a complex internal representation of the world. The use of Qualitative Process Theory and an interval-based representation of time are proposed as a representation scheme for such a world model. The planning system which was constructed has been tested on a set of realistic planning scenarios. It is shown that even simple planning problems, such as making a cup of coffee, require extensive reasoning if they are to be carried out successfully. The final Chapter concludes that the planning system described does allow the correct solution of planning problems involving complex side effects, which planners up to now have been unable to solve.

Openness and economic growth

The themes of this thesis are that international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are closely related and that they have varying impacts on economic growth in countries at different stages of development. The thesis consists of three empirical studies. The first one examines the causal relationship between FDI and trade in China. The empirical study is based on a panel of bilateral data for China and 19 home countries/regions over the period 1984-98. The specific feature of the study is that econometric techniques designed specially for panel data are applied to test for unit roots and causality. The results indicate a virtuous procedure of development for China. The growth of China’s imports causes growth in inward FDI from a home country/region, which in turn causes the growth of exports from China to the home country/region. The growth of exports causes the growth of imports. This virtuous procedure is the result of China’s policy of opening to the outside world. China has been encouraging export-oriented FDI and reducing trade barriers. Such policy instruments should be further encouraged in order to enhance economic growth. In the second study, an extended gravity model is constructed to identify the main causes of recent trade growth in OECD countries. The specific features include (a) the explicit introduction of R&D and FDI as two important explanatory variables into an augmented gravity equation; (b) the adoption of a panel data approach, and (c) the careful treatment of endogeneity. The main findings are that the levels and similarities of market size, domestic R&D stock and inward FDI stock are positively related to the volume of bilateral trade, while the geographical distance, exchange rate and relative factor endowments, has a negative impact. These findings lend support to new trade, FDI and economic growth theories. The third study evaluates the impact of openness on growth in different country groups. This research distinguishes itself from many existing studies in three aspects: first, both trade and FDI are included in the measurement of openness. Second, countries are divided' into three groups according to their development stages to compare the roles of FDI and trade in different groups. Third, the possible problems of endogeneity and multicollinearity of FDI and trade are carefully dealt with in a panel data setting. The main findings are that FDI and trade are both beneficial to a country's development. However, trade has positive effects on growth in all country groups but FDI has positive effects on growth only in the country groups which have had moderate development. The findings suggest FDI and trade may affect growth under different conditions.

An econometric analysis of international tourism demand in Hong Kong : a cointegration and error correction approach

The purpose of this study is to develop econometric models to better understand the economic factors affecting inbound tourist flows from each of six origin countries that contribute to Hong Kong’s international tourism demand. To this end, we test alternative cointegration and error correction approaches to examine the economic determinants of tourist flows to Hong Kong, and to produce accurate econometric forecasts of inbound tourism demand. Our empirical findings show that permanent income is the most significant determinant of tourism demand in all models. The variables of own price, weighted substitute prices, trade volume, the share price index (as an indicator of changes in wealth in origin countries), and a dummy variable representing the Beijing incident (1989) are also found to be important determinants for some origin countries. The average long-run income and own price elasticity was measured at 2.66 and – 1.02, respectively. It was hypothesised that permanent income is a better explanatory variable of long-haul tourism demand than current income. A novel approach (grid search process) has been used to empirically derive the weights to be attached to the lagged income variable for estimating permanent income. The results indicate that permanent income, estimated with empirically determined relatively small weighting factors, was capable of producing better results than the current income variable in explaining long-haul tourism demand. This finding suggests that the use of current income in previous empirical tourism demand studies may have produced inaccurate results. The share price index, as a measure of wealth, was also found to be significant in two models. Studies of tourism demand rarely include wealth as an explanatory forecasting long-haul tourism demand. However, finding a satisfactory proxy for wealth common to different countries is problematic. This study indicates with the ECM (Error Correction Models) based on the Engle-Granger (1987) approach produce more accurate forecasts than ECM based on Pesaran and Shin (1998) and Johansen (1988, 1991, 1995) approaches for all of the long-haul markets and Japan. Overall, ECM produce better forecasts than the OLS, ARIMA and NAÏVE models, indicating the superiority of the application of a cointegration approach for tourism demand forecasting. The results show that permanent income is the most important explanatory variable for tourism demand from all countries but there are substantial variations between countries with the long-run elasticity ranging between 1.1 for the U.S. and 5.3 for U.K. Price is the next most important variable with the long-run elasticities ranging between -0.8 for Japan and -1.3 for Germany and short-run elasticities ranging between – 0.14 for Germany and -0.7 for Taiwan. The fastest growing market is Mainland China. The findings have implications for policies and strategies on investment, marketing promotion and pricing.

On a distinction between casual and formative variable models:theoretical issues and practical implications for organizational researchers

Formative measurement has seen increasing acceptance in organizational research since the turn of the 21st Century. However, in more recent times, a number of criticisms of the formative approach have appeared. Such work argues that formatively-measured constructs are empirically ambiguous and thus flawed in a theory-testing context. The aim of the present paper is to examine the underpinnings of formative measurement theory in light of theories of causality and ontology in measurement in general. In doing so, a thesis is advanced which draws a distinction between reflective, formative, and causal theories of latent variables. This distinction is shown to be advantageous in that it clarifies the ontological status of each type of latent variable, and thus provides advice on appropriate conceptualization and application. The distinction also reconciles in part both recent supportive and critical perspectives on formative measurement. In light of this, advice is given on how most appropriately to model formative composites in theory-testing applications, placing the onus on the researcher to make clear their conceptualization and operationalisation.

Monetary variability and monetary variables in the Franc zone

Failure to detect or account for structural changes in economic modelling can lead to misleading policy inferences, which can be perilous, especially for the more fragile economies of developing countries. Using three potential monetary policy instruments (Money Base, M0, and Reserve Money) for 13 member-states of the CFA Franc zone over the period 1989:11-2002:09, we investigate the magnitude of information extracted by employing data-driven techniques when analyzing breaks in time-series, rather than the simplifying practice of imposing policy implementation dates as break dates. The paper also tests Granger's (1980) aggregation theory and highlights some policy implications of the results.

Trade balance and real exchange rate:new evidence from Mauritius-UK trade

Two main questions are addressed here: is there a long-run relationship between trade balance and real exchange rate for the bilateral trade between Mauritius and UK? Does a J-curve exist for this bilateral trade? Our findings suggest that the real exchange rate is cointegrated with the trade balance and we find evidence of a J-curve effect. We also find bidirectional causality between the trade balance and the real exchange rate in the long-run. The real exchange rate also causes the trade balance in the short-run. In an out-of-sample forecasting experiment, we also find that real exchange rate contains useful information that can explain future movements in the trade balance.

Controlling feeding practices:cause or consequence of early child weight?

INTRODUCTION. The exertion of control during child feeding has been associated with both underweight and overweight during childhood. What is as-yet unclear is whether controlling child feeding practices causally affect child weight or whether the use of control may be a reactive response to concerns about high or low child weight. The aims of this study were to explore the direction of causality in these relationships during infancy. METHODS. Sixty-two women gave informed consent to take part in this longitudinal study that spanned from birth to 2 years of child age. Mothers completed the Child Feeding Questionnaire at 1 year, and their children were weighed at 1 and 2 years of age. Child weight scores were converted into standardized z scores that accounted for child age and gender. RESULTS. Controlling for child weight at 1 year, the use of pressure to eat and restriction at 1 year significantly predicted lower child weight at 2 years. CONCLUSIONS. Controlling feeding practices in infancy have an impact on children's weight at 2 years. The use of restrictive child feeding practices during infancy predicts lower child weight at age 2 years, which may reinforce mothers' use of this strategy in the longer term despite its potential association with disinhibition and greater child weight in later childhood.

How HR can inspire the teamwork that allows innovation to flourish

Innovation is vital if organisations are to deal effectively with social and economic change. Yet few studies have looked at the relationship between teamworking and innovation – or, indeed, other organisational outcomes. Our research aimed to fill this gap by exploring the extent to which team-based working in small- and medium- sized manufacturing organisations predicted product innovation. The results show that levels of innovation are higher in organisations using work-based teams than in those with alternative structural arrangements. We also found that effective HRM practices, such as sophisticated selection, induction, appraisal, training and remuneration management, created an environment that allowed teams to excel. The study drew on a variety of sources, including data on organisational-level innovation gathered through a postal survey. Respondents gave estimates of the number of new or adapted products developed in the past two years. They also detailed the percentage of production workers involved in making the new products; sales turnover accounted for by these products; and how far production processes had been changed to accommodate the innovations. We measured HRM effectiveness and the extent of teamworking via interviews with the relevant HR or production manager. We then rated each organisation on a scale of one to five, according to how effective its HRM practices were. We also examined the percentage of staff at management and shopfloor levels engaged in teamworking. The research design was longitudinal, in that the data on product innovation was collected six months to a year after the main questionnaire on teamworking was conducted. Other studies addressing these questions have tended to be cross-sectional, measuring both variables at the same time. Longitudinal studies generally make a stronger case for causality. Perhaps of most theoretical significance is the finding that teamworking combined with effective HR systems explains more of the variance for product innovation than teamworking alone. This is in line with J Richard Hackman (1990), who argued that organisational context affected team performance in various ways – for example, through offering a framework for the administration of reward and the exchange of knowledge and through promoting learning-oriented beliefs. Our work supports these ideas. This study also has practical implications. Increasing the number of teams may be an important step in determining the extent to which they can innovate on a sustained basis. Organisations should therefore consider what HRM practices are most likely to foster team innovation. They might, for example, explore how helpful it would be to develop team-based appraisal and better designed teamworking training. Developing support structures that enable teams to achieve outstanding performance may present a challenge, but our results suggest that such an approach will be worth the effort. Key points: • The greater the percentage of staff working in teams, the higher the level of innovation. • This applies to both management and production teams. • Where sophisticated and effective HRM practices are in place, the relationship between team-based working and product innovation becomes more pronounced. • Both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses show strong relationships between team-based working and product innovation.

Burden or benefit? Regulation as a dynamic influence on small business performance

This article contributes to contemporary debates concerning the impact of regulation on small business performance. Reassessing previous studies, we build our insights on their useful, but partial, approaches. Prior studies treat regulation principally as a static and negative influence, thereby neglecting the full range of regulatory effects on business performance. This study adopts a more nuanced approach, one informed by critical realism, that conceptualises social reality as stratified, and social causality in terms of the actions of human agents situated within particular social-structural contexts. We theorise regulation as a dynamic force, enabling as well as constraining performance, generating contradictory performance effects. Such regulatory effects flow directly from adaptations to regulation, and indirectly via relationships with the wide range of close and distant stakeholders with whom small businesses interact. Future research should examine these contradictory regulatory influences on small business performance.

Causal relationship between HRM policies and organisational performance:evidence from the Greek manufacturing sector

Blending insights from the contingency theory, the resource-based view, and the AMO theory, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the HRM-performance causal relationship in the Greek context. The empirical research is based on a sample of 178 organisations operating in the Greek manufacturing sector. Using structural equation modelling the results of the study revealed that the ability to perform (resourcing and development), motivation to perform (compensation and incentives), and opportunity to perform (involvement and job design) HRM policy domains are moderated by business strategies (cost, quality, innovation), and additionally, the motivation to perform is further moderated by managerial style and organisational culture. Further, the results indicate that the impact of HRM policies on organisational performance is fully mediated by employee skills, attitudes, and behaviour. The paper concludes that although the motivation to perform HRM policy domain causes organisational performance, through employee attitudes, it may be supported that organisational performance positively moderates the effectiveness of this HRM policy domain, raising thus the question of reverse causality.