A probabilistic model for trust and reputation

This paper concerns the problem of agent trust in an electronic market place. We maintain that agent trust involves making decisions under uncertainty and therefore the phenomenon should be modelled probabilistically. We therefore propose a probabilistic framework that models agent interactions as a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). The observations of the HMM are the interaction outcomes and the hidden state is the underlying probability of a good outcome. The task of deciding whether to interact with another agent reduces to probabilistic inference of the current state of that agent given all previous interaction outcomes. The model is extended to include a probabilistic reputation system which involves agents gathering opinions about other agents and fusing them with their own beliefs. Our system is fully probabilistic and hence delivers the following improvements with respect to previous work: (a) the model assumptions are faithfully translated into algorithms; our system is optimal under those assumptions, (b) It can account for agents whose behaviour is not static with time (c) it can estimate the rate with which an agent's behaviour changes. The system is shown to significantly outperform previous state-of-the-art methods in several numerical experiments. Copyright © 2010, International Foundation for Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (www.ifaamas.org). All rights reserved.

Design of the low vision quality-of-life questionnaire (LVQOL) and measuring the outcome of low-vision rehabilitation

PURPOSE: To design and validate a vision-specific quality-of-life assessment tool to be used in a clinical setting to evaluate low-vision rehabilitation strategy and management. METHODS: Previous vision-related questionnaires were assessed by low-vision rehabilitation professionals and patients for relevance and coverage. The 74 items selected were pretested to ensure correct interpretation. One hundred and fifty patients with low vision completed the chosen questions on four occasions to allow the selection of the most appropriate items. The vision-specific quality of life of patients with low vision was compared with that of 70 age-matched and gender-matched patients with normal vision and before and after low-vision rehabilitation in 278 patients. RESULTS: Items that were unreliable, internally inconsistent, redundant, or not relevant were excluded, resulting in the 25-item Low Vision Quality-of-Life Questionnaire (LVQOL). Completion of the LVQOL results in a summed score between 0 (a low quality of life) and 125 (a high quality of life). The LVQOL has a high internal consistency (α = 0.88) and good reliability (0.72). The average LVQOL score for a population with low vision (60.9 ± 25.1) was significantly lower than the average score of those with normal vision (100.3 ± 20.8). Rehabilitation improved the LVQOL score of those with low vision by an average of 6.8 ± 15.6 (17%). CONCLUSIONS: The LVQOL was shown to be an internally consistent, reliable, and fast method for measuring the vision-specific quality of life of the visually impaired in a clinical setting. It is able to quantify the quality of life of those with low vision and is useful in determining the effects of low-vision rehabilitation. Copyright (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc.

Was it good for them? Reflections on the use of MENTOR and changes in course design using general performance measures

This paper considers the use of general performance measures in evaluating specific planning and design decisions in higher education and reflects on the students' learning process. Specifically, it concerns the use of the MENTOR multimedia computer aided learning package for helping students learn about OR as part of a general business degree. It includes the transfer of responsibility for a learning module to a new staff member and a change from a single tutor to a system involving multiple tutors. Student satisfaction measures, learning outcome measures and MENTOR usage patterns are examined in monitoring the effects of the changes in course delivery. The results raise some questions about the effectiveness of general performance measures in supporting specific decisions relating to course design and planning.

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia:epidemiology, outcome, and laboratory characteristics in a tertiary referral center in the UK

Objective: To analyze the recent epidemiology of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) bacteremia in a UK tertiary referral center. Methods: We collected epidemiological and laboratory data on all cases of MRSA bacteremia from September 1, 2005 to December 31, 2007. Results: There were 195 clinically significant episodes. Most were hospital-acquired. Only one episode occurred in patients without a history of hospital admission in the previous 12 months. An intravascular device was the most common focus of infection (37%), with no identifiable source found in 35% of episodes. Twenty-eight percent of patients died within 30 days of bacteremia. Mortality was significantly higher in the absence of an identifiable focus. Failure to include an antibiotic active against MRSA in the empirical treatment was only significantly associated with death in patients showing signs of hemodynamic instability (p < 0.001). No isolates had a minimum inhibitory concentration to vancomycin above 1.5. mg/l and no heteroresistance to glycopeptide antibiotics (heteroresistant vancomycin-intermediate Staphylococcus aureus; hVISA) was detected. All isolates were sensitive to daptomycin, tigecycline, and linezolid. Conclusions: Despite improvement in infection control measures, medical devices remain the most common source of infection. Inappropriate empirical antibiotic usage is associated with a poor outcome in patients with signs of severe sepsis. Susceptibility to glycopeptides and newer antibiotics remains good. © 2010 International Society for Infectious Diseases.