Short-term electricity demand and gas price forecasts using wavelet transforms and adaptive models

This paper presents some forecasting techniques for energy demand and price prediction, one day ahead. These techniques combine wavelet transform (WT) with fixed and adaptive machine learning/time series models (multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis functions, linear regression, or GARCH). To create an adaptive model, we use an extended Kalman filter or particle filter to update the parameters continuously on the test set. The adaptive GARCH model is a new contribution, broadening the applicability of GARCH methods. We empirically compared two approaches of combining the WT with prediction models: multicomponent forecasts and direct forecasts. These techniques are applied to large sets of real data (both stationary and non-stationary) from the UK energy markets, so as to provide comparative results that are statistically stronger than those previously reported. The results showed that the forecasting accuracy is significantly improved by using the WT and adaptive models. The best models on the electricity demand/gas price forecast are the adaptive MLP/GARCH with the multicomponent forecast; their MSEs are 0.02314 and 0.15384 respectively.

Semantics of query-driven communication of exact values

We address the question of how to communicate among distributed processes valuessuch as real numbers, continuous functions and geometrical solids with arbitrary precision, yet efficiently. We extend the established concept of lazy communication using streams of approximants by introducing explicit queries. We formalise this approach using protocols of a query-answer nature. Such protocols enable processes to provide valid approximations with certain accuracy and focusing on certain locality as demanded by the receiving processes through queries. A lattice-theoretic denotational semantics of channel and process behaviour is developed. Thequery space is modelled as a continuous lattice in which the top element denotes the query demanding all the information, whereas other elements denote queries demanding partial and/or local information. Answers are interpreted as elements of lattices constructed over suitable domains of approximations to the exact objects. An unanswered query is treated as an error anddenoted using the top element. The major novel characteristic of our semantic model is that it reflects the dependency of answerson queries. This enables the definition and analysis of an appropriate concept of convergence rate, by assigning an effort indicator to each query and a measure of information content to eachanswer. Thus we capture not only what function a process computes, but also how a process transforms the convergence rates from its inputs to its outputs. In future work these indicatorscan be used to capture further computational complexity measures. A robust prototype implementation of our model is available.

The detection of p-waves in ambulatory ECG recordings by the use of wavelet transforms

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A geometrical model for surface roughness prediction when face milling Al 7075-T7351 with square insert tools

Surface quality is important in engineering and a vital aspect of it is surface roughness, since it plays an important role in wear resistance, ductility, tensile, and fatigue strength for machined parts. This paper reports on a research study on the development of a geometrical model for surface roughness prediction when face milling with square inserts. The model is based on a geometrical analysis of the recreation of the tool trail left on the machined surface. The model has been validated with experimental data obtained for high speed milling of aluminum alloy (Al 7075-T7351) when using a wide range of cutting speed, feed per tooth, axial depth of cut and different values of tool nose radius (0.8. mm and 2.5. mm), using the Taguchi method as the design of experiments. The experimental roughness was obtained by measuring the surface roughness of the milled surfaces with a non-contact profilometer. The developed model can be used for any combination of material workpiece and tool, when tool flank wear is not considered and is suitable for using any tool diameter with any number of teeth and tool nose radius. The results show that the developed model achieved an excellent performance with almost 98% accuracy in terms of predicting the surface roughness when compared to the experimental data. © 2014 The Society of Manufacturing Engineers.

Geometrical optimization of a fast pyrolysis bubbling fluidized bed reactor using comutational fluid dynamics

This paper analyzes the physical phenomena that take place inside an 1 kg/h bubbling fluidized bed reactor located at Aston University and presents a geometrically modified version of it, in order to improve certain hydrodynamic and gas flow characteristics. The bed uses, in its current operation, 40 L/min of N2 at 520 °C fed through a distributor plate and 15 L/min purge gas stream, i.e., N2 at 20 °C, via the feeding tube. The Eulerian model of FLUENT 6.3 is used for the simulation of the bed hydrodynamics, while the k - ε model accounts for the effect of the turbulence field of one phase on the other. The three-dimensional simulation of the current operation of the reactor showed that a stationary bubble was formed next to the feeding tube. The size of the permanent bubble reaches up to the splash zone of the reactor, without any fluidizaton taking place underneath the feeder. The gas flow dynamics in the freeboard of the reactor is also analyzed. A modified version of the reactor is presented, simulated, and analyzed, together with a discussion on the impact of the flow dynamics on the fast pyrolysis of biomass. © 2010 American Chemical Society.