A simple Bayesian modelling approach to event extraction from Twitter

With the proliferation of social media sites, social streams have proven to contain the most up-to-date information on current events. Therefore, it is crucial to extract events from the social streams such as tweets. However, it is not straightforward to adapt the existing event extraction systems since texts in social media are fragmented and noisy. In this paper we propose a simple and yet effective Bayesian model, called Latent Event Model (LEM), to extract structured representation of events from social media. LEM is fully unsupervised and does not require annotated data for training. We evaluate LEM on a Twitter corpus. Experimental results show that the proposed model achieves 83% in F-measure, and outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline by over 7%.© 2014 Association for Computational Linguistics.

An unsupervised Bayesian modelling approach to storyline detection from news articles

Storyline detection from news articles aims at summarizing events described under a certain news topic and revealing how those events evolve over time. It is a difficult task because it requires first the detection of events from news articles published in different time periods and then the construction of storylines by linking events into coherent news stories. Moreover, each storyline has different hierarchical structures which are dependent across epochs. Existing approaches often ignore the dependency of hierarchical structures in storyline generation. In this paper, we propose an unsupervised Bayesian model, called dynamic storyline detection model, to extract structured representations and evolution patterns of storylines. The proposed model is evaluated on a large scale news corpus. Experimental results show that our proposed model outperforms several baseline approaches.

Molecular and genetic evidence for abnormalities in the nodes of Ranvier in schizophrenia

Context: Genetic, neuroimaging, and molecular neurobiological evidence support the hypothesis that the disconnectivity syndrome in schizophrenia (SZ) could arise from failures of saltatory conduction and abnormalities at the nodes of Ranvier (NOR) interface where myelin and axons interact. Objective: To identify abnormalities in the expression of oligodendroglial genes and proteins that participate in the formation, maintenance, and integrity of the NOR in SZ. Design: The messenger RNA (mRNA) expression levels of multiple NOR genes were quantified in 2 independent postmortem brain cohorts of individuals with SZ, and generalizability to protein expression was confirmed. The effect of the ANK3 genotype on the mRNA expression level was tested in postmortem human brain. Case-control analysis tested the association of the ANK3 genotype with SZ. The ANK3 genotype's influence on cognitive task performance and functional magnetic resonance imaging activation was tested in 2 independent cohorts of healthy individuals. Setting: Research hospital. Patients: Postmortem samples from patients with SZ and healthy controls were used for the brain expression study (n=46) and the case-control analysis (n=272). Healthy white men and women participated in the cognitive (n=513) and neuroimaging (n=52) studies. Main Outcome Measures: The mRNA and protein levels in postmortem brain samples, genetic association with schizophrenia, cognitive performance, and blood oxygenation level-dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging. Results: The mRNA expression of multiple NOR genes was decreased in schizophrenia. The ANK3 rs9804190 C allele was associated with lower ANK3 mRNA expression levels, higher risk for SZ in the case-control cohort, and poorer working memory and executive function performance and increased prefrontal activation during a working memory task in healthy individuals. Conclusions: These results point to abnormalities in the expression of genes and protein associated with the integrity of the NOR and suggest them as substrates for the disconnectivity syndrome in SZ. The association of ANK3 with lower brain mRNA expression levels implicates a molecular mechanism for its genetic, clinical, and cognitive associations with SZ. ©2012 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.

Further evidence for a parent-of-origin effect at the NOP9 locus on language-related phenotypes

Background - Specific language impairment (SLI) is a common neurodevelopmental disorder, observed in 5–10 % of children. Family and twin studies suggest a strong genetic component, but relatively few candidate genes have been reported to date. A recent genome-wide association study (GWAS) described the first statistically significant association specifically for a SLI cohort between a missense variant (rs4280164) in the NOP9 gene and language-related phenotypes under a parent-of-origin model. Replications of these findings are particularly challenging because the availability of parental DNA is required. Methods - We used two independent family-based cohorts characterised with reading- and language-related traits: a longitudinal cohort (n = 106 informative families) including children with language and reading difficulties and a nuclear family cohort (n = 264 families) selected for dyslexia. Results - We observed association with language-related measures when modelling for parent-of-origin effects at the NOP9 locus in both cohorts: minimum P = 0.001 for phonological awareness with a paternal effect in the first cohort and minimum P = 0.0004 for irregular word reading with a maternal effect in the second cohort. Allelic and parental trends were not consistent when compared to the original study. Conclusions - A parent-of-origin effect at this locus was detected in both cohorts, albeit with different trends. These findings contribute in interpreting the original GWAS report and support further investigations of the NOP9 locus and its role in language-related traits. A systematic evaluation of parent-of-origin effects in genetic association studies has the potential to reveal novel mechanisms underlying complex traits.

Modelling the dynamics of genetic algorithms using statistical mechanics

A formalism for modelling the dynamics of Genetic Algorithms (GAs) using methods from statistical mechanics, originally due to Prugel-Bennett and Shapiro, is reviewed, generalized and improved upon. This formalism can be used to predict the averaged trajectory of macroscopic statistics describing the GA's population. These macroscopics are chosen to average well between runs, so that fluctuations from mean behaviour can often be neglected. Where necessary, non-trivial terms are determined by assuming maximum entropy with constraints on known macroscopics. Problems of realistic size are described in compact form and finite population effects are included, often proving to be of fundamental importance. The macroscopics used here are cumulants of an appropriate quantity within the population and the mean correlation (Hamming distance) within the population. Including the correlation as an explicit macroscopic provides a significant improvement over the original formulation. The formalism is applied to a number of simple optimization problems in order to determine its predictive power and to gain insight into GA dynamics. Problems which are most amenable to analysis come from the class where alleles within the genotype contribute additively to the phenotype. This class can be treated with some generality, including problems with inhomogeneous contributions from each site, non-linear or noisy fitness measures, simple diploid representations and temporally varying fitness. The results can also be applied to a simple learning problem, generalization in a binary perceptron, and a limit is identified for which the optimal training batch size can be determined for this problem. The theory is compared to averaged results from a real GA in each case, showing excellent agreement if the maximum entropy principle holds. Some situations where this approximation brakes down are identified. In order to fully test the formalism, an attempt is made on the strong sc np-hard problem of storing random patterns in a binary perceptron. Here, the relationship between the genotype and phenotype (training error) is strongly non-linear. Mutation is modelled under the assumption that perceptron configurations are typical of perceptrons with a given training error. Unfortunately, this assumption does not provide a good approximation in general. It is conjectured that perceptron configurations would have to be constrained by other statistics in order to accurately model mutation for this problem. Issues arising from this study are discussed in conclusion and some possible areas of further research are outlined.

A Bayesian state space modelling approach to probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting

The generation of very short range forecasts of precipitation in the 0-6 h time window is traditionally referred to as nowcasting. Most existing nowcasting systems essentially extrapolate radar observations in some manner, however, very few systems account for the uncertainties involved. Thus deterministic forecast are produced, which have a limited use when decisions must be made, since they have no measure of confidence or spread of the forecast. This paper develops a Bayesian state space modelling framework for quantitative precipitation nowcasting which is probabilistic from conception. The model treats the observations (radar) as noisy realisations of the underlying true precipitation process, recognising that this process can never be completely known, and thus must be represented probabilistically. In the model presented here the dynamics of the precipitation are dominated by advection, so this is a probabilistic extrapolation forecast. The model is designed in such a way as to minimise the computational burden, while maintaining a full, joint representation of the probability density function of the precipitation process. The update and evolution equations avoid the need to sample, thus only one model needs be run as opposed to the more traditional ensemble route. It is shown that the model works well on both simulated and real data, but that further work is required before the model can be used operationally. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian ocean colour modelling

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