General bounds on Bayes errors for regression with Gaussian processes

Based on a simple convexity lemma, we develop bounds for different types of Bayesian prediction errors for regression with Gaussian processes. The basic bounds are formulated for a fixed training set. Simpler expressions are obtained for sampling from an input distribution which equals the weight function of the covariance kernel, yielding asymptotically tight results. The results are compared with numerical experiments.

Future glucose-lowering drugs for type 2 diabetes

The multivariable and progressive natural history of type 2 diabetes limits the effectiveness of available glucose-lowering drugs. Constraints imposed by comorbidities (notably cardiovascular disease and renal impairment) and the need to avoid hypoglycaemia, weight gain, and drug interactions further complicate the treatment process. These challenges have prompted the development of new formulations and delivery methods for existing drugs alongside research into novel pharmacological entities. Advances in incretin-based therapies include a miniature implantable osmotic pump to give continuous delivery of a glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist for 6-12 months and once-weekly tablets of dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors. Hybrid molecules that combine the properties of selected incretins and other peptides are at early stages of development, and proof of concept has been shown for small non-peptide molecules to activate glucagon-like peptide-1 receptors. Additional sodium-glucose co-transporter inhibitors are progressing in development as well as possible new insulin-releasing biological agents and small-molecule inhibitors of glucagon action. Adiponectin receptor agonists, selective peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor modulators, cellular glucocorticoid inhibitors, and analogues of fibroblast growth factor 21 are being considered as potential new approaches to glucose lowering. Compounds that can enhance insulin receptor and post-receptor signalling cascades or directly promote selected pathways of glucose metabolism have suggested opportunities for future treatments. However, pharmacological interventions that are able to restore normal β-cell function and β-cell mass, normalise insulin action, and fully correct glucose homoeostasis are a distant vision.

Ocular and systemic markers for vascular function in those at risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease

The devastating impact of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) -related morbidity and mortality on global healthcare is escalating with higher prevalences of obesity, poor diet, and sedentary lifestyles. Therefore, the clinical need for early diagnosis and prevention in groups of high-risk individuals is necessary. The purpose of this thesis was to investigate the use of surrogate markers, namely retinal vascular function, to determine future vascular endothelial dysfunction, atherosclerosis, large vessel disease and cardiovascular risk in certain groups. This namely covered normoglycaemic and normotensive South Asians (SAs), those with Impaired-Glucose Tolerance (IGT) and individuals with a familial history (FH) of T2DM. Additionally the effect of overweight and obesity was studied. The techniques and modified protocols adopted for this thesis involved the investigation of endothelial function by means of vascular reactivity at the ocular and systemic level. Furthermore, the relationships between retinal and systemic function with circulating markers for endothelial cell function and cardiovascular risk markers were explored. The principal studies and findings of the research were: Vascular Function in Normoglycaemic Individuals with and without a FH of T2DM WE FH individuals exhibited higher levels of total cholesterol levels that correlated well with the retinal arterial dilation amplitude to flicker light stimulus. However this did not extend to noticeable differences in markers for endothelial cell damage and impaired retinal and systemic function. Vascular Function in Normoglycaemic South-Asians vs. White-Europeans without a FH and Vascular Disturbances Compared to healthy WEs (normo -glycaemic and -tensive), SA participants exhibited levels of dyslipidaemia and a state of oxidative stress that extended to impaired vascular function as detected by reduced brachial artery flow-mediated dilation, slower retinal arterial vessel dilation reaction times (Appendix 3) and steeper constriction profiles. Furthermore, gender sub-group analysis presented in a sub-chapter shows that SA males demonstrated 24-hour systemic blood pressure (BP) and heart rate variability (HRV) abnormalities and heightened cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Vascular Function in Individuals Newly Diagnosed with IGT as compared to Normoglycaemic Healthy Controls Newly-diagnosed WE and SA IGT patients showed a greater risk for CVD and T2DM progression by means of 24-hour BP abnormalities, dyslipidaemia, increased carotid artery intimal-media thickness (c-IMT), Framingham scores and cholesterol ratios. Additionally, pre-clinical markers for oxidative stress and endothelial dysfunction, as evident by significantly lower levels of plasma glutathione and increased levels of von-Willebrand factor in IGT individuals, extended to impaired vascular systemic and retinal function compared to normal controls. This originally shows retinal, systemic and biochemical disturbances in newly-diagnosed IGT not previously reported before. Vascular Function in Normal, Overweight and Obese Individuals of SA and WE Ethnicity In addition to the intended study chapters, the thesis also investigated the influence of obesity and overweight on vascular function. Most importantly, it was found for the first time that compared to lean individuals it was overweight and not obese individuals that exhibited signs of vascular systemic and ocular dysfunction that was evident alongside markers of atherosclerosis, CVD risk and endothelial damage.

Sensing and control of adipocyte function

Obesity has become a global epidemic. Approximately 15% of the world population is either overweight or obese. This figure rises to 75% in many westernised countries including the United Kingdom. Health costs in the UK to treat obesity and associated disease are conservatively estimated at 6% of the National Health Service (NHS) budget equating to 3.33 billion Euros. Excess adiposity, especially in visceral depots, increases the risk of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, gall stones, hypertension and cancer. Type 2 diabetes mellitus accounts for >90% of all cases of diabetes of which the majority can be attributed to increased adiposity, and approximately 70% of cardiovascular disease has been attributed to obesity in the US. Weight loss reduces risk of these complications and in some cases can eliminate the condition. However, weight loss by conventional non-medicated methods is often unsuccessful or promptly followed by weight regain. This thesis has investigated adipocytes development and adipokine signalling with a view to enhance the understanding of tissue functionality and to identify possible targets or pathways for therapeutic intervention. Adipocyte isolation from human tissue samples was undertaken for these investigative studies, and the methodology was optimised. The resulting isolates of pre-adipocytes and mature adipocytes were characterised and evaluated. Major findings from these studies indicate that mature adipocytes undergo cell division post terminal differentiation. Gene studies indicated that subcutaneous adipose tissue exuded greater concentrations and fluctuations of adipokine levels than visceral adipose tissue, indicating an important adiposensing role of subcutaneous adipose tissue. It was subsequently postulated that the subcutaneous depot may provide the major focus for control of overall energy balance and by extension weight control. One potential therapeutic target, 11ß-hydrosteroid dehydrogenase (11ß-HSD1) was investigated, and prospective inhibitors of its action were considered (BVT1, BVT2 and AZ121). Selective reduction of adiposity of the visceral depot was desired due to its correlation with the detrimental effects of obesity. However, studies indicated that although the visceral depot tissue was not unaffected, the subcutaneous depot was more susceptible to therapeutic inhibition by these compounds. This was determined to be a potentially valuable therapeutic intervention in light of previous postulations regarding long-term energy control via the subcutaneous tissue depot.

Weight loss strategies, stress, and cognitive function:supervised versus unsupervised dieting

The early stages of dieting to lose weight have been associated with neuro-psychological impairments. Previous work has not elucidated whether these impairments are a function solely of unsupported or supported dieting. Raised cortico-steroid levels have been implicated as a possible causal mechanism. Healthy, overweight, pre-menopausal women were randomised to one of three conditions in which they dieted either as part of a commercially available weight loss group, dieted without any group support or acted as non-dieting controls for 8 weeks. Testing occurred at baseline and at 1, 4 and 8 weeks post baseline. During each session, participants completed measures of simple reaction time, motor speed, vigilance, immediate verbal recall, visuo-spatial processing and (at Week 1 only) executive function. Cortisol levels were gathered at the beginning and 30 min into each test session, via saliva samples. Also, food intake was self-recorded prior to each session and fasting body weight and percentage body fat were measured at each session. Participants in the unsupported diet condition displayed poorer vigilance performance (p=0.001) and impaired executive planning function (p=0.013) (along with a marginally significant trend for poorer visual recall (p=0.089)) after 1 week of dieting. No such impairments were observed in the other two groups. In addition, the unsupported dieters experienced a significant rise in salivary cortisol levels after 1 week of dieting (p<0.001). Both dieting groups lost roughly the same amount of body mass (p=0.011) over the course of the 8 weeks of dieting, although only the unsupported dieters experienced a significant drop in percentage body fat over the course of dieting (p=0.016). The precise causal nature of the relationship between stress, cortisol, unsupported dieting and cognitive function is, however, uncertain and should be the focus of further research. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of weight loss outcomes between obese patients with and without Type 2 diabetes attending a weight management focused structured educational group

Aims: Specialist lifestyle management (SLiM) is a medically supported dietetically led structured group education and self-management programme focusing on weight management. Obese patients with Type 2 diabetes are perceived to find it more difficult to lose weight compared with those without diabetes. We aimed to compare the weight loss achieved by obese patients with or without Type 2 diabetes completing the SLiM programme. Methods: A prospective analysis of patients attending SLiM between 2009 and 2013 was conducted. Results: There were 454 obese patients (mean age 49.1 ± 11.6years, women 72.5%, body mass index 49.8 ± 9.3kg/m2, weight137.3 ± 28kg). 152/454 patients (33%) had Type 2 diabetes of which 31 (20.4%) were insulin treated. Patients with Type 2diabetes were older (52.4 ± 11.3 vs 47.5 ± 11.4 years, p < 0.001). SLiM resulted in significant weight loss in patients with (136.5 ± 27 vs 130.2 ± 25.3, p < 0.001) or without (137.6 ± 29 vs 132.6 ± 28.4, p < 0.001) Type 2 diabetes. Weight loss was comparable between patients with and without Type 2 diabetes (6.1 ± 7.9 vs5.1 ± 7kg, p = 0.2). The proportion of patients achieving ≥ 10%weight loss was similar between patients with and without Type 2diabetes (10.5% vs 9.9%, p = 0.4). Insulin-treated patients lost similar weight to those not treated with insulin (6.3 ± 9.4 vs 6.1 ± 7.6kg, p = 0.9). After adjustment for age, sex, referral weight and medications, Type 2 diabetes did not predict weight change during the SLiM programme (b = 0.3, p = 0.5). Conclusions: Attending the SLiM groups produces a significant weight loss in patients with Type 2 diabetes which is comparable to those without Type 2 diabetes. Insulin-treated patients lost similar weight to those not on insulin. Weight gain with Type 2 diabetes and insulin treatment is not ‘unavoidable’ if patients receive the appropriate support and education.

Glycated hemoglobin, body weight and blood pressure in type 2 diabetes patients initiating dapagliflozin treatment in primary care:a retrospective study

Introduction - The present study aimed to describe characteristics of patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) in UK primary care initiated on dapagliflozin, post-dapagliflozin changes in glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), body weight and blood pressure, and reasons for adding dapagliflozin to insulin. Methods - Retrospective study of patients with T2D in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink with first prescription for dapagliflozin. Patients were included in the study if they: (1) had a first prescription for dapagliflozin between November 2012 and September 2014; (2) had a Read code for T2D; (3) were registered with a practice for at least 6 months before starting dapagliflozin; and (4) remained registered for at least 3 months after initiation. A questionnaire ascertained reason(s) for adding dapagliflozin to insulin. Results - Dapagliflozin was most often used as triple therapy (27.7%), dual therapy with metformin (25.1%) or added to insulin (19.2%). Median therapy duration was 329 days [95% confidence interval (CI) 302–361]. Poor glycemic control was the reason for dapagliflozin initiation for 93.1% of insulin-treated patients. Avoiding increases in weight/body mass index and insulin resistance were the commonest reasons for selecting dapagliflozin versus intensifying insulin. HbA1c declined by mean of 9.7 mmol/mol (95% CI 8.5–10.9) (0.89%) 14–90 days after starting dapagliflozin, 10.2 mmol/mol (95% CI 8.9–11.5) (0.93%) after 91–180 days and 12.6 mmol/mol (95% CI 11.0–14.3) (1.16%) beyond 180 days. Weight declined by mean of 2.6 kg (95% CI 2.3–2.9) after 14–90 days, 4.3 kg (95% CI 3.8–4.7) after 91–180 days and 4.6 kg (95% CI 4.0–5.2) beyond 180 days. In patients with measurements between 14 and 90 days after starting dapagliflozin, systolic and diastolic blood pressure decreased by means of 4.5 (95% CI −5.8 to −3.2) and 2.0 (95% CI −2.9 to −1.2) mmHg, respectively from baseline. Similar reductions in systolic and diastolic blood pressure were observed after 91–180 days and when follow-up extended beyond 180 days. Results were consistent across subgroups. Conclusion - HbA1c, body weight and blood pressure were reduced after initiation of dapagliflozin in patients with T2D in UK primary care and the changes were consistent with randomized clinical trials.