Bayesian classification with Gaussian processes

We consider the problem of assigning an input vector bfx to one of m classes by predicting P(c|bfx) for c = 1, ldots, m. For a two-class problem, the probability of class 1 given bfx is estimated by s(y(bfx)), where s(y) = 1/(1 + e^-y). A Gaussian process prior is placed on y(bfx), and is combined with the training data to obtain predictions for new bfx points. We provide a Bayesian treatment, integrating over uncertainty in y and in the parameters that control the Gaussian process prior; the necessary integration over y is carried out using Laplace's approximation. The method is generalized to multi-class problems (m >2) using the softmax function. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the method on a number of datasets.

Gaussian processes for classification: mean field algorithms:mean-field algorithms

We derive a mean field algorithm for binary classification with Gaussian processes which is based on the TAP approach originally proposed in Statistical Physics of disordered systems. The theory also yields an approximate leave-one-out estimator for the generalization error which is computed with no extra computational cost. We show that from the TAP approach, it is possible to derive both a simpler 'naive' mean field theory and support vector machines (SVM) as limiting cases. For both mean field algorithms and support vectors machines, simulation results for three small benchmark data sets are presented. They show 1. that one may get state of the art performance by using the leave-one-out estimator for model selection and 2. the built-in leave-one-out estimators are extremely precise when compared to the exact leave-one-out estimate. The latter result is a taken as a strong support for the internal consistency of the mean field approach.

Gaussian processes:iterative sparse approximations

In recent years there has been an increased interest in applying non-parametric methods to real-world problems. Significant research has been devoted to Gaussian processes (GPs) due to their increased flexibility when compared with parametric models. These methods use Bayesian learning, which generally leads to analytically intractable posteriors. This thesis proposes a two-step solution to construct a probabilistic approximation to the posterior. In the first step we adapt the Bayesian online learning to GPs: the final approximation to the posterior is the result of propagating the first and second moments of intermediate posteriors obtained by combining a new example with the previous approximation. The propagation of em functional forms is solved by showing the existence of a parametrisation to posterior moments that uses combinations of the kernel function at the training points, transforming the Bayesian online learning of functions into a parametric formulation. The drawback is the prohibitive quadratic scaling of the number of parameters with the size of the data, making the method inapplicable to large datasets. The second step solves the problem of the exploding parameter size and makes GPs applicable to arbitrarily large datasets. The approximation is based on a measure of distance between two GPs, the KL-divergence between GPs. This second approximation is with a constrained GP in which only a small subset of the whole training dataset is used to represent the GP. This subset is called the em Basis Vector, or BV set and the resulting GP is a sparse approximation to the true posterior. As this sparsity is based on the KL-minimisation, it is probabilistic and independent of the way the posterior approximation from the first step is obtained. We combine the sparse approximation with an extension to the Bayesian online algorithm that allows multiple iterations for each input and thus approximating a batch solution. The resulting sparse learning algorithm is a generic one: for different problems we only change the likelihood. The algorithm is applied to a variety of problems and we examine its performance both on more classical regression and classification tasks and to the data-assimilation and a simple density estimation problems.

Statistical mechanics analysis of LDPC coding in MIMO Gaussian channels

Using analytical methods of statistical mechanics, we analyse the typical behaviour of a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) Gaussian channel with binary inputs under low-density parity-check (LDPC) network coding and joint decoding. The saddle point equations for the replica symmetric solution are found in particular realizations of this channel, including a small and large number of transmitters and receivers. In particular, we examine the cases of a single transmitter, a single receiver and symmetric and asymmetric interference. Both dynamical and thermodynamical transitions from the ferromagnetic solution of perfect decoding to a non-ferromagnetic solution are identified for the cases considered, marking the practical and theoretical limits of the system under the current coding scheme. Numerical results are provided, showing the typical level of improvement/deterioration achieved with respect to the single transmitter/receiver result, for the various cases. © 2007 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Bayesian classification with Gaussian processes

We consider the problem of assigning an input vector to one of m classes by predicting P(c|x) for c=1,...,m. For a two-class problem, the probability of class one given x is estimated by s(y(x)), where s(y)=1/(1+e-y). A Gaussian process prior is placed on y(x), and is combined with the training data to obtain predictions for new x points. We provide a Bayesian treatment, integrating over uncertainty in y and in the parameters that control the Gaussian process prior the necessary integration over y is carried out using Laplace's approximation. The method is generalized to multiclass problems (m>2) using the softmax function. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the method on a number of datasets.

The primal sketch revisited: locating and representing edges in human vision via Gaussian-derivative filtering

Marr's work offered guidelines on how to investigate vision (the theory - algorithm - implementation distinction), as well as specific proposals on how vision is done. Many of the latter have inevitably been superseded, but the approach was inspirational and remains so. Marr saw the computational study of vision as tightly linked to psychophysics and neurophysiology, but the last twenty years have seen some weakening of that integration. Because feature detection is a key stage in early human vision, we have returned to basic questions about representation of edges at coarse and fine scales. We describe an explicit model in the spirit of the primal sketch, but tightly constrained by psychophysical data. Results from two tasks (location-marking and blur-matching) point strongly to the central role played by second-derivative operators, as proposed by Marr and Hildreth. Edge location and blur are evaluated by finding the location and scale of the Gaussian-derivative `template' that best matches the second-derivative profile (`signature') of the edge. The system is scale-invariant, and accurately predicts blur-matching data for a wide variety of 1-D and 2-D images. By finding the best-fitting scale, it implements a form of local scale selection and circumvents the knotty problem of integrating filter outputs across scales. [Supported by BBSRC and the Wellcome Trust]

Non-Gaussian error probability in optical soliton transmission

We find the probability distribution of the fluctuating parameters of a soliton propagating through a medium with additive noise. Our method is a modification of the instanton formalism (method of optimal fluctuation) based on a saddle-point approximation in the path integral. We first solve consistently a fundamental problem of soliton propagation within the framework of noisy nonlinear Schrödinger equation. We then consider model modifications due to in-line (filtering, amplitude and phase modulation) control. It is examined how control elements change the error probability in optical soliton transmission. Even though a weak noise is considered, we are interested here in probabilities of error-causing large fluctuations which are beyond perturbation theory. We describe in detail a new phenomenon of soliton collapse that occurs under the combined action of noise, filtering and amplitude modulation. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of Gaussian noise on the threshold, dynamic range, and loudness of analogue cochlear implant stimuli

The deliberate addition of Gaussian noise to cochlear implant signals has previously been proposed to enhance the time coding of signals by the cochlear nerve. Potentially, the addition of an inaudible level of noise could also have secondary benefits: it could lower the threshold to the information-bearing signal, and by desynchronization of nerve discharges, it could increase the level at which the information-bearing signal becomes uncomfortable. Both these effects would lead to an increased dynamic range, which might be expected to enhance speech comprehension and make the choice of cochlear implant compression parameters less critical (as with a wider dynamic range, small changes in the parameters would have less effect on loudness). The hypothesized secondary effects were investigated with eight users of the Clarion cochlear implant; the stimulation was analogue and monopolar. For presentations in noise, noise at 95% of the threshold level was applied simultaneously and independently to all the electrodes. The noise was found in two-alternative forced-choice (2AFC) experiments to decrease the threshold to sinusoidal stimuli (100 Hz, 1 kHz, 5 kHz) by about 2.0 dB and increase the dynamic range by 0.7 dB. Furthermore, in 2AFC loudness balance experiments, noise was found to decrease the loudness of moderate to intense stimuli. This suggests that loudness is partially coded by the degree of phase-locking of cochlear nerve fibers. The overall gain in dynamic range was modest, and more complex noise strategies, for example, using inhibition between the noise sources, may be required to get a clinically useful benefit. © 2006 Association for Research in Otolaryngology.

Wind power forecasts using Gaussian processes and numerical weather prediction

Since wind at the earth's surface has an intrinsically complex and stochastic nature, accurate wind power forecasts are necessary for the safe and economic use of wind energy. In this paper, we investigated a combination of numeric and probabilistic models: a Gaussian process (GP) combined with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model was applied to wind-power forecasting up to one day ahead. First, the wind-speed data from NWP was corrected by a GP, then, as there is always a defined limit on power generated in a wind turbine due to the turbine controlling strategy, wind power forecasts were realized by modeling the relationship between the corrected wind speed and power output using a censored GP. To validate the proposed approach, three real-world datasets were used for model training and testing. The empirical results were compared with several classical wind forecast models, and based on the mean absolute error (MAE), the proposed model provides around 9% to 14% improvement in forecasting accuracy compared to an artificial neural network (ANN) model, and nearly 17% improvement on a third dataset which is from a newly-built wind farm for which there is a limited amount of training data. © 2013 IEEE.

Super-Gaussian conical refraction beam

We demonstrate the transformation of Gaussian input beams into super-Gaussian beams with a quasi flat-top transverse profile by means of the conical refraction phenomenon by adjusting the ratio between the ring radius and the waist radius of the input beam to 0.445. We discuss the beam propagation of the super-Gaussian beam and show that it has a confocal parameter three times larger than the one that would be obtained from a Gaussian beam. The experiments performed with a KGd(WO4)2 biaxial crystal are in good agreement with the theoretical predictions. © 2014 Optical Society of America.