Quantitative risk assessment of groundwater quality utilizing GIS technology and coupled groundwater models

The thesis presents a two-dimensional Risk Assessment Method (RAM) where the assessment of risk to the groundwater resources incorporates both the quantification of the probability of the occurrence of contaminant source terms, as well as the assessment of the resultant impacts. The approach emphasizes the need for a greater dependency on the potential pollution sources, rather than the traditional approach where assessment is based mainly on the intrinsic geo-hydrologic parameters. The risk is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation methods whereby random pollution events were generated to the same distribution as historically occurring events or a priori potential probability distribution. Integrated mathematical models then simulate contaminant concentrations at the predefined monitoring points within the aquifer. The spatial and temporal distributions of the concentrations were calculated from repeated realisations, and the number of times when a user defined concentration magnitude was exceeded is quantified as a risk. The method was setup by integrating MODFLOW-2000, MT3DMS and a FORTRAN coded risk model, and automated, using a DOS batch processing file. GIS software was employed in producing the input files and for the presentation of the results. The functionalities of the method, as well as its sensitivities to the model grid sizes, contaminant loading rates, length of stress periods, and the historical frequencies of occurrence of pollution events were evaluated using hypothetical scenarios and a case study. Chloride-related pollution sources were compiled and used as indicative potential contaminant sources for the case study. At any active model cell, if a random generated number is less than the probability of pollution occurrence, then the risk model will generate synthetic contaminant source term as an input into the transport model. The results of the applications of the method are presented in the form of tables, graphs and spatial maps. Varying the model grid sizes indicates no significant effects on the simulated groundwater head. The simulated frequency of daily occurrence of pollution incidents is also independent of the model dimensions. However, the simulated total contaminant mass generated within the aquifer, and the associated volumetric numerical error appear to increase with the increasing grid sizes. Also, the migration of contaminant plume advances faster with the coarse grid sizes as compared to the finer grid sizes. The number of daily contaminant source terms generated and consequently the total mass of contaminant within the aquifer increases in a non linear proportion to the increasing frequency of occurrence of pollution events. The risk of pollution from a number of sources all occurring by chance together was evaluated, and quantitatively presented as risk maps. This capability to combine the risk to a groundwater feature from numerous potential sources of pollution proved to be a great asset to the method, and a large benefit over the contemporary risk and vulnerability methods.

Conjunctival epithelial flaps with 18 months of silicone hydrogel contact lens wear

Purpose. To report differences in the incidence of conjunctival epithelial flaps (CEFs) found in a group of neophyte contact wearers using two different silicone hydrogel contact lenses on a daily- and continuous-wear basis during an 18-month period. Methods. Sixty-one subjects were initially examined, and 53 were eligible to participate in the study. Eligible subjects were randomly assigned to wear one of two silicone hydrogel materials, lotrafilcon A or balafilcon A, on a daily- or continuous-wear basis. After an initial screening, subjects were monitored weekly for the first month and then after 3, 6, 12, and IS months. The incidence of CEFs in each of the four contact lens groups was recorded. Results. Five of the 53 subjects enrolled in the study showed bilateral CEFs. A higher incidence of CEFs was found in subjects wearing lotrafilcon A lenses (n = 4) compared to balafilcon A lenses (it = 1) (chi(2) = 4.37, P=0.04). Differences in the incidence of CEFs between subjects wearing lenses on a daily-wear basis (n = 1) versus a continuous-wear basis (it = 4) showed a weak statistical significance (chi(2) = 3.03, P=0.08). Conclusions. Lotrafilcon A lenses were associated with a higher incidence of CEFs than balafilcon A lenses were, and this difference may be attributed to differences in the edge design, material, or modulus of rigidity between the two lens types. Subjects wearing lenses on a daily-wear basis showed fewer adverse events than did subjects wearing lenses on a continuous-wear basis. The longer wearing times of subjects wearing lenses on a continuous-wear basis are likely to exacerbate the incidence of CEFs.

Non-aqueous silicone elastomer gels as a vaginal microbicide delivery system for the HIV-1 entry inhibitor maraviroc

Aqueous semi-solid polymeric gels, such as those based on hydroxyethylcellulose (HEC) and polyacrylic acid (e.g. Carbopol®), have a long history of use in vaginal drug delivery. However, despite their ubiquity, they often provide sub-optimal clinical performance, due to poor mucosal retention and limited solubility for poorly water-soluble actives. These issues are particularly pertinent for vaginal HIV microbicides, since many lead candidates are poorly water-soluble and where a major goal is the development of a coitally independent, once daily gel product. In this study, we report the use of a non-aqueous silicone elastomer gel for vaginal delivery of the HIV-1 entry inhibitor maraviroc. In vitro rheological, syringeability and retention studies demonstrated enhanced performance for silicone gels compared with a conventional aqueous HEC gel, while testing of the gels in the slug model confirmed a lack of mucosal irritancy. Pharmacokinetic studies following single dose vaginal administration of a maraviroc silicone gel in rhesus macaques showed higher and sustained MVC levels in vaginal fluid, vaginal tissue and plasma compared with a HEC gel containing the same maraviroc loading. The results demonstrate that non-aqueous silicone gels have potential as a formulation platform for coitally independent vaginal HIV microbicides.

Spatially clustered associations in health GIS

Overlaying maps using a desktop GIS is often the first step of a multivariate spatial analysis. The potential of this operation has increased considerably as data sources and Web services to manipulate them are becoming widely available via the Internet. Standards from the OGC enable such geospatial mashups to be seamless and user driven, involving discovery of thematic data. The user is naturally inclined to look for spatial clusters and correlation of outcomes. Using classical cluster detection scan methods to identify multivariate associations can be problematic in this context, because of a lack of control on or knowledge about background populations. For public health and epidemiological mapping, this limiting factor can be critical but often the focus is on spatial identification of risk factors associated with health or clinical status. Spatial entropy index HSu for the ScankOO analysis of the hypothetical dataset using a vicinity which is fixed by the number of points without distinction between their labels. (The size of the labels is proportional to the inverse of the index) In this article we point out that this association itself can ensure some control on underlying populations, and develop an exploratory scan statistic framework for multivariate associations. Inference using statistical map methodologies can be used to test the clustered associations. The approach is illustrated with a hypothetical data example and an epidemiological study on community MRSA. Scenarios of potential use for online mashups are introduced but full implementation is left for further research.

A naturally shaped silicone ventricle evaluated in a mock circulation loop: a preliminary study

Mock circulation loops are used to evaluate the performance of cardiac assist devices prior to animal and clinical testing. A compressible, translucent silicone ventricle chamber that mimics the exact size, shape and motion of a failing heart is desired to assist in flow visualization studies around inflow cannulae during VAD support. The aim of this study was therefore to design and construct a naturally shaped flexible left ventricle and evaluate its performance in a mock circulation loop. The ventricle shape was constructed by the use of CT images taken from a patient experiencing cardiomyopathic heart failure and used to create a 3D image and subsequent mould to produce a silicone ventricle. Different cardiac conditions were successfully simulated to validate the ventricle performance, including rest, left heart failure and VAD support.

GIS linked environmental process models

In recent years there has been a great effort to combine the technologies and techniques of GIS and process models. This project examines the issues of linking a standard current generation 2½d GIS with several existing model codes. The focus for the project has been the Shropshire Groundwater Scheme, which is being developed to augment flow in the River Severn during drought periods by pumping water from the Shropshire Aquifer. Previous authors have demonstrated that under certain circumstances pumping could reduce the soil moisture available for crops. This project follows earlier work at Aston in which the effects of drawdown were delineated and quantified through the development of a software package that implemented a technique which brought together the significant spatially varying parameters. This technique is repeated here, but using a standard GIS called GRASS. The GIS proved adequate for the task and the added functionality provided by the general purpose GIS - the data capture, manipulation and visualisation facilities - were of great benefit. The bulk of the project is concerned with examining the issues of the linkage of GIS and environmental process models. To this end a groundwater model (Modflow) and a soil moisture model (SWMS2D) were linked to the GIS and a crop model was implemented within the GIS. A loose-linked approach was adopted and secondary and surrogate data were used wherever possible. The implications of which relate to; justification of a loose-linked versus a closely integrated approach; how, technically, to achieve the linkage; how to reconcile the different data models used by the GIS and the process models; control of the movement of data between models of environmental subsystems, to model the total system; the advantages and disadvantages of using a current generation GIS as a medium for linking environmental process models; generation of input data, including the use of geostatistic, stochastic simulation, remote sensing, regression equations and mapped data; issues of accuracy, uncertainty and simply providing adequate data for the complex models; how such a modelling system fits into an organisational framework.

Ocular response to silicone-hydrogel contact lenses

The thesis investigates the ocular response to silicone-hydrogel (SiH) contact lens wear, a relatively new contact lens material that has a higher modulus of rigidity and different surface coating than used in conventional hydrogel materials. The properties of SiH materials differ significantly from conventional hydrogels and, using subjective and objective means of assessment, the thesis examines how these properties affect reflection and biometry, ocular physiology, tear film characteristics, symptomatology, adverse events and complications. A range of standard and newly designed investigative techniques were employed, and latter involving novel imaging techniques, for the objective assessment of physiological changes which occur with contact lens wear. The study is the first to combine these techniques with biochemical analyses of the tear film composition. Forty-seven subjects were fitted with SiH lenses and randomly allocated to one of the two materials currently on the market (Lotrafilcon A or Balafilcon A) on an either daily or continuous wear basis. An additional control group of 14 age-matched non-contact lens wearers were monitored over the same period. Measurements were taken before and 1, 3, 6, 12 and 18 months after initial fitting. The findings reported in this thesis will enable contact lens practitioners and manufacturers to understand further the optical, physiological and biochemical nature of the ocular response to SiH contact lenses and hence facilitate the development of this important generation of contact lens material.

Crack-growth of medical-grade silicone using pure shear tests

Silicone elastomers are commonly used in the manufacture of single-piece joint replacement implants for the finger joints. However, the survivorship of these implants can be poor, with failure typically occurring from fracture of the stems. The aim of this paper was to investigate the crack growth of medical-grade silicone using pure shear tests. Two medical-grade silicones (C6-180 and Med82-5010-80) were tested. Each sample had a 20 mm crack introduced and was subjected to a sinusoidally varying tensile strain, with a minimum of 0 per cent and a maximum in the range 10 to 77 per cent. Testing was undertaken at a frequency of 10 Hz. At various times during testing, the testing machine was stopped, the number of cycles completed was noted, and the crack length measured. Graphs of crack length against number of cycles were plotted, as well as the crack growth rate against tearing energy. The results show that Med82-5010-80 is more crack resistant than C6-180. Graphs of crack growth rate against tearing energy can be used to predict the failure of these medical-grade elastomers.

A decade of silicone hydrogel development:surface properties, mechanical properties, and ocular compatibility

Since the initial launch of silicone hydrogel lenses, there has been a considerable broadening in the range of available commercial material properties. The very mobile silicon–oxygen bonds convey distinctive surface and mechanical properties on silicone hydrogels, in which advantages of enhanced oxygen permeability, reduced protein deposition, and modest frictional interaction are balanced by increased lipid and elastic response. There are now some 15 silicone hydrogel material variants available to practitioners; arguably, the changes that have taken place have been strongly influenced by feedback based on clinical experience. Water content is one of the most influential properties, and the decade has seen a progressive rise from lotrafilcon-A (24%) to efrofilcon-A (74%). Moduli have decreased over the same period from 1.4 to 0.3 MPa, but not solely as a result of changes in water content. Surface properties do not correlate directly with water content, and ingenious approaches have been used to achieve desirable improvements (e.g., greater lubricity and lower contact angle hysteresis). This is demonstrated by comparing the hysteresis value of the earliest (lotrafilcon-A, >40°) and most recent (delefilcon-A, <10°) coated silicone hydrogels. Although wettability is important, it is not of itself a good predictor of ocular response because this involves a much wider range of physicochemical and biochemical factors. The interference of the lens with ocular dynamics is complex leading separately to tissue–material interactions involving anterior and posterior lens surfaces. The biochemical consequences of these interactions may hold the key to a greater understanding of ocular incompatibility and end of day discomfort.

Predicting success with silicone-hydrogel contact lenses in new wearers

Purpose: to evaluate changes in tear metrics and ocular signs induced by six months of silicone-hydrogel contact lens wear and the difference in baseline characteristics between those who successfully continued in contact lens wear compared to those that did not. Methods: Non-invasive Keratograph, Tearscope and fluorescein tear break-up times (TBUTs), tear meniscus height, bulbar and limbal hyperaemia, lid-parallel conjunctival folds (LIPCOF), phenol red thread, fluorescein and lissamine-green staining, and lid wiper epitheliopathy were measured on 60 new contact lens wearers fitted with monthly silicone-hydrogels (average age 36 ± 14 years, 40 females). Symptoms were evaluated by the Ocular Surface Disease Index (OSDI). After six months full time contact lens wear the above metrics were re-measured on those patients still in contact lens wear (n= 33). The initial measurements were also compared between the group still wearing lenses after six months and those who had ceased lens wear (n= 27). Results: There were significant changes in tear meniscus height (p= 0.031), bulbar hyperaemia (p= 0.011), fluorescein TBUT (p= 0.027), corneal (p= 0.007) and conjunctival (p= 0.009) staining, LIPCOF (p= 0.011) and lid wiper epitheliopathy (p= 0.002) after six months of silicone-hydrogel wear. Successful wearers had a higher non-invasive (17.0 ± 8.2. s vs 12.0 ± 5.6. s; p= 0.001) and fluorescein (10.7 ± 6.4. s vs 7.5 ± 4.7. s; p= 0.001) TBUT than drop-outs, although OSDI (cut-off 4.2) was also a strong predictor of success. Conclusion: Silicone-hydrogel lenses induced significant changes in the tear film and ocular surface as well as lid margin staining. Wettability of the ocular surface is the main factor affecting contact lens drop-out. © 2013 British Contact Lens Association.

The development of silicone sponge by using a non-toxic blowing agent

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Adverse events and discontinuations during 18 months of silicone hydrogel contact lens wear

PURPOSE. To report differences in the incidence of adverse events and discontinuations found in a group of neophyte contact wearers using two different silicone hydrogel contact lenses on a daily- and continuous-wear basis during an 18-month period. METHODS. Sixty-one subjects were initially examined, and 53 were eligible to participate in the study. Eligible subjects were randomly assigned to wear one of two silicone hydrogel materials: lotrafilcon A or balafilcon A lenses on a daily- or continuous-wear basis. After an initial screening, subjects were monitored weekly for the first month and then after 3, 6, 12, and 18 months. The incidence of adverse events, including corneal infiltrative events, superior epithelial arcuate lesions, and contact lens-induced papillary conjunctivitis, and discontinuations in each of the four contact lens groups were recorded. RESULTS. Twenty-two adverse events were found. A higher incidence of adverse events was found in subjects wearing lotrafilcon A lenses than in those wearing balafilcon A lenses (χ = 4.40, P=0.04). There were fewer adverse events in subjects wearing lenses on a daily-wear basis than in those wearing lenses on a continuous-wear basis (χ = 5.98, P=0.01). Eight subjects discontinued from the study as a result of recurrent corneal infiltrative events (one), vision problems (two), excessive ocular discomfort (one), relocation (one), noncompliance with the study protocol (one), and being lost to follow-up (two). No significant differences were found in the number of discontinuations between the two lens types (χ = 0.66, P=0.42) and wearing regimens (χ = 0.08, P=0.78). CONCLUSIONS. Lotrafilcon A lenses were associated with a higher incidence of adverse events than balafilcon A lenses were, and this difference is attributed to the difference in the incidence of corneal infiltrative events. Subjects wearing lenses on a daily-wear basis had fewer adverse events than did subjects wearing lenses on a continuous-wear basis. Both lens types and wearing regimens showed a similar incidence of discontinuations. © 2007 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.

Changes in ocular physiology, tear film characteristics, and symptomatology with 18 months silicone hydrogel contact lens wear

Purpose. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the longitudinal changes in ocular physiology, tear film characteristics, and symptomatology experienced by neophyte silicone hydrogel (SiH) contact lens wearers in a daily-wear compared with a continuous-wear modality and with the different commercially available lenses over an 18-month period. Methods. Forty-five neophyte subjects were enrolled in the study and randomly assigned to wear one of two SiH materials: lotrafilcon A or balafilcon A lenses on either a daily- (LDW; BDW) or continuous-wear (LCW; BCW) basis. Additionally, a group of noncontact lens-wearing subjects (control group) was also recruited and followed over the same study period. Objective and subjective grading of ocular physiology were carried out together with tear meniscus height (TMH) and noninvasive tear breakup time (NITBUT). Subjects also subjectively rated symptoms and judgments with lens wear. After initial screening, subsequent measurements were taken after 1, 3, 6, 12, and 18 months. Results. Subjective and objective grading of ocular physiology revealed a small increase in bulbar, limbal, and palpebral hyperemia as well as corneal staining over time with both lens materials and regimes of wear (p < 0.05). No significant changes in NITBUT or TMH were found (p > 0.05). Subjective symptoms and judgment were not material- or modality-specific. Conclusions. Daily and continuous wear of SiH contact lenses induced small but statistically significant changes in ocular physiology and symptomatology. Clinical measures of tear film characteristics were unaffected by lens wear. Both materials and regimes of wear showed similar clinical performance. Long-term SiH contact lens wear is shown to be a successful option for patients. Copyright © 2006 American Academy of Optometry.