Quantitative risk assessment of groundwater quality utilizing GIS technology and coupled groundwater models

The thesis presents a two-dimensional Risk Assessment Method (RAM) where the assessment of risk to the groundwater resources incorporates both the quantification of the probability of the occurrence of contaminant source terms, as well as the assessment of the resultant impacts. The approach emphasizes the need for a greater dependency on the potential pollution sources, rather than the traditional approach where assessment is based mainly on the intrinsic geo-hydrologic parameters. The risk is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation methods whereby random pollution events were generated to the same distribution as historically occurring events or a priori potential probability distribution. Integrated mathematical models then simulate contaminant concentrations at the predefined monitoring points within the aquifer. The spatial and temporal distributions of the concentrations were calculated from repeated realisations, and the number of times when a user defined concentration magnitude was exceeded is quantified as a risk. The method was setup by integrating MODFLOW-2000, MT3DMS and a FORTRAN coded risk model, and automated, using a DOS batch processing file. GIS software was employed in producing the input files and for the presentation of the results. The functionalities of the method, as well as its sensitivities to the model grid sizes, contaminant loading rates, length of stress periods, and the historical frequencies of occurrence of pollution events were evaluated using hypothetical scenarios and a case study. Chloride-related pollution sources were compiled and used as indicative potential contaminant sources for the case study. At any active model cell, if a random generated number is less than the probability of pollution occurrence, then the risk model will generate synthetic contaminant source term as an input into the transport model. The results of the applications of the method are presented in the form of tables, graphs and spatial maps. Varying the model grid sizes indicates no significant effects on the simulated groundwater head. The simulated frequency of daily occurrence of pollution incidents is also independent of the model dimensions. However, the simulated total contaminant mass generated within the aquifer, and the associated volumetric numerical error appear to increase with the increasing grid sizes. Also, the migration of contaminant plume advances faster with the coarse grid sizes as compared to the finer grid sizes. The number of daily contaminant source terms generated and consequently the total mass of contaminant within the aquifer increases in a non linear proportion to the increasing frequency of occurrence of pollution events. The risk of pollution from a number of sources all occurring by chance together was evaluated, and quantitatively presented as risk maps. This capability to combine the risk to a groundwater feature from numerous potential sources of pollution proved to be a great asset to the method, and a large benefit over the contemporary risk and vulnerability methods.

Dynamic simulation of chemical plant

A CSSL- type modular FORTRAN package, called ACES, has been developed to assist in the simulation of the dynamic behaviour of chemical plant. ACES can be harnessed, for instance, to simulate the transients in startups or after a throughput change. ACES has benefited from two existing simulators. The structure was adapted from ICL SLAM and most plant models originate in DYFLO. The latter employs sequential modularisation which is not always applicable to chemical engineering problems. A novel device of twice- round execution enables ACES to achieve general simultaneous modularisation. During the FIRST ROUND, STATE-VARIABLES are retrieved from the integrator and local calculations performed. During the SECOND ROUND, fresh derivatives are estimated and stored for simultaneous integration. ACES further includes a version of DIFSUB, a variable-step integrator capable of handling stiff differential systems. ACES is highly formalised . It does not use pseudo steady- state approximations and excludes inconsistent and arbitrary features of DYFLO. Built- in debug traps make ACES robust. ACES shows generality, flexibility, versatility and portability, and is very convenient to use. It undertakes substantial housekeeping behind the scenes and thus minimises the detailed involvement of the user. ACES provides a working set of defaults for simulation to proceed as far as possible. Built- in interfaces allow for reactions and user supplied algorithms to be incorporated . New plant models can be easily appended. Boundary- value problems and optimisation may be tackled using the RERUN feature. ACES is file oriented; a STATE can be saved in a readable form and reactivated later. Thus piecewise simulation is possible. ACES has been illustrated and verified to a large extent using some literature-based examples. Actual plant tests are desirable however to complete the verification of the library. Interaction and graphics are recommended for future work.

Modelling and measurements on a condensing counter-flow heat exchanger

Experimental investigations and computer modelling studies have been made on the refrigerant-water counterflow condenser section of a small air to water heat pump. The main object of the investigation was a comparative study between the computer modelling predictions and the experimental observations for a range of operating conditions but other characteristics of a counterflow heat exchanger are also discussed. The counterflow condenser consisted of 15 metres of a thermally coupled pair of copper pipes, one containing the R12 working fluid and the other water flowing in the opposite direction. This condenser was mounted horizontally and folded into 0.5 metre straight sections. Thermocouples were inserted in both pipes at one metre intervals and transducers for pressure and flow measurement were also included. Data acquisition, storage and analysis was carried out by a micro-computer suitably interfaced with the transducers and thermocouples. Many sets of readings were taken under a variety of conditions, with air temperature ranging from 18 to 26 degrees Celsius, water inlet from 13.5 to 21.7 degrees, R12 inlet temperature from 61.2 to 81.7 degrees and water mass flow rate from 6.7 to 32.9 grammes per second. A Fortran computer model of the condenser (originally prepared by Carrington[1]) has been modified to match the information available from experimental work. This program uses iterative segmental integration over the desuperheating, mixed phase and subcooled regions for the R12 working fluid, the water always being in the liquid phase. Methods of estimating the inlet and exit fluid conditions from the available experimental data have been developed for application to the model. Temperature profiles and other parameters have been predicted and compared with experimental values for the condenser for a range of evaporator conditions and have shown that the model gives a satisfactory prediction of the physical behaviour of a simple counterflow heat exchanger in both single phase and two phase regions.

Dynamic simulation of chemical processes

This thesis describes the design and implementation of an interactive dynamic simulator called DASPRII. The starting point of this research has been an existing dynamic simulation package, DASP. DASPII is written in standard FORTRAN 77 and is implemented on universally available IBM-PC or compatible machines. It provides a means for the analysis and design of chemical processes. Industrial interest in dynamic simulation has increased due to the recent increase in concern over plant operability, resiliency and safety. DASPII is an equation oriented simulation package which allows solution of dynamic and steady state equations. The steady state can be used to initialise the dynamic simulation. A robust non linear algebraic equation solver has been implemented for steady state solution. This has increased the general robustness of DASPII, compared to DASP. A graphical front end is used to generate the process flowsheet topology from a user constructed diagram of the process. A conversational interface is used to interrogate the user with the aid of a database, to complete the topological information. An original modelling strategy implemented in DASPII provides a simple mechanism for parameter switching which creates a more flexible simulation environment. The problem description generated is by a further conversational procedure using a data-base. The model format used allows the same model equations to be used for dynamic and steady state solution. All the useful features of DASPI are retained in DASPII. The program has been demonstrated and verified using a number of example problems, Significant improvements using the new NLAE solver have been shown. Topics requiring further research are described. The benefits of variable switching in models has been demonstrated with a literature problem.

Optimization of chemical plant simulation using double collocation

A method has been constructed for the solution of a wide range of chemical plant simulation models including differential equations and optimization. Double orthogonal collocation on finite elements is applied to convert the model into an NLP problem that is solved either by the VF 13AD package based on successive quadratic programming, or by the GRG2 package, based on the generalized reduced gradient method. This approach is termed simultaneous optimization and solution strategy. The objective functional can contain integral terms. The state and control variables can have time delays. Equalities and inequalities containing state and control variables can be included into the model as well as algebraic equations and inequalities. The maximum number of independent variables is 2. Problems containing 3 independent variables can be transformed into problems having 2 independent variables using finite differencing. The maximum number of NLP variables and constraints is 1500. The method is also suitable for solving ordinary and partial differential equations. The state functions are approximated by a linear combination of Lagrange interpolation polynomials. The control function can either be approximated by a linear combination of Lagrange interpolation polynomials or by a piecewise constant function over finite elements. The number of internal collocation points can vary by finite elements. The residual error is evaluated at arbitrarily chosen equidistant grid-points, thus enabling the user to check the accuracy of the solution between collocation points, where the solution is exact. The solution functions can be tabulated. There is an option to use control vector parameterization to solve optimization problems containing initial value ordinary differential equations. When there are many differential equations or the upper integration limit should be selected optimally then this approach should be used. The portability of the package has been addressed converting the package from V AX FORTRAN 77 into IBM PC FORTRAN 77 and into SUN SPARC 2000 FORTRAN 77. Computer runs have shown that the method can reproduce optimization problems published in the literature. The GRG2 and the VF I 3AD packages, integrated into the optimization package, proved to be robust and reliable. The package contains an executive module, a module performing control vector parameterization and 2 nonlinear problem solver modules, GRG2 and VF I 3AD. There is a stand-alone module that converts the differential-algebraic optimization problem into a nonlinear programming problem.

Reliability analysis for hazard and operability studies

Fault tree analysis is used as a tool within hazard and operability (Hazop) studies. The present study proposes a new methodology for obtaining the exact TOP event probability of coherent fault trees. The technique uses a top-down approach similar to that of FATRAM. This new Fault Tree Disjoint Reduction Algorithm resolves all the intermediate events in the tree except OR gates with basic event inputs so that a near minimal cut sets expression is obtained. Then Bennetts' disjoint technique is applied and remaining OR gates are resolved. The technique has been found to be appropriate as an alternative to Monte Carlo simulation methods when rare events are countered and exact results are needed. The algorithm has been developed in FORTRAN 77 on the Perq workstation as an addition to the Aston Hazop package. The Perq graphical environment enabled a friendly user interface to be created. The total package takes as its input cause and symptom equations using Lihou's form of coding and produces both drawings of fault trees and the Boolean sum of products expression into which reliability data can be substituted directly.

Dynamic simulation of chemical plant

This thesis describes the design and implementation of a new dynamic simulator called DASP. It is a computer program package written in standard Fortran 77 for the dynamic analysis and simulation of chemical plants. Its main uses include the investigation of a plant's response to disturbances, the determination of the optimal ranges and sensitivities of controller settings and the simulation of the startup and shutdown of chemical plants. The design and structure of the program and a number of features incorporated into it combine to make DASP an effective tool for dynamic simulation. It is an equation-oriented dynamic simulator but the model equations describing the user's problem are generated from in-built model equation library. A combination of the structuring of the model subroutines, the concept of a unit module, and the use of the connection matrix of the problem given by the user have been exploited to achieve this objective. The Executive program has a structure similar to that of a CSSL-type simulator. DASP solves a system of differential equations coupled to nonlinear algebraic equations using an advanced mixed equation solver. The strategy used in formulating the model equations makes it possible to obtain the steady state solution of the problem using the same model equations. DASP can handle state and time events in an efficient way and this includes the modification of the flowsheet. DASP is highly portable and this has been demonstrated by running it on a number of computers with only trivial modifications. The program runs on a microcomputer with 640 kByte of memory. It is a semi-interactive program, with the bulk of all input data given in pre-prepared data files with communication with the user is via an interactive terminal. Using the features in-built in the package, the user can view or modify the values of any input data, variables and parameters in the model, and modify the structure of the flowsheet of the problem during a simulation session. The program has been demonstrated and verified using a number of example problems.

Computer aided design and manufacture for three dimensional milling

Advances in both computer technology and the necessary mathematical models capable of capturing the geometry of arbitarily shaped objects has led to the development in this thesis of a surface generation package called 'IBSCURF' aimed at providing a more economically viable solution to free-form surface manufacture. A suit of computer programs written in FORTRAN 77 has been developed to provide computer aids for every aspect of work in designing and machining free-form surfaces. A vector-valued parametric method was used for shape description and a lofting technique employed for the construction of the surface. The development of the package 'IBSCURF' consists of two phases. The first deals with CAD. The design process commences in defining the cross-sections which are represented by uniform B-spline curves as approximations to give polygons. The order of the curve and the position and number of the polygon vertices can be used as parameters for the modification to achieve the required curves. When the definitions of the sectional curves is complete, the surface is interpolated over them by cubic cardinal splines. To use the CAD function of the package to design a mould for a plastic handle, a mathematical model was developed. To facilitate the integration of design and machining using the mathematical representation of the surface, the second phase of the package is concerned with CAM which enables the generation of tool offset positions for ball-nosed cutters and a general post-processor has been developed which automatically generates NC tape programs for any CNC milling machine. The two phases of these programs have been successfully implemented, as a CAD/CAM package for free-form surfaces on the VAX 11/750 super-minicomputer with graphics facilities for displaying drawings interactively on the terminal screen. The development of this package has been beneficial in all aspects of design and machining of free form surfaces.

Computer integrated system for form-roll manufacture

Computer integrated manufacture has brought about great advances in manufacturing technology and its recognition is world wide. Cold roll forming of thin-walled sections, and in particular the design and manufacture of form-rolls, the special tooling used in the cold roll forming process, is but one such area where computer integrated manufacture can make a positive contribution. The work reported in this thesis, concerned with the development of an integrated manufacturing system for assisting the design and manufacture of form-rolls, was undertaken in collaboration with a leading manufacturer of thin-walled sections. A suit of computer programs, written in FORTRAN 77, have been developed to provide computer aids for every aspect of work in form-roll design and manufacture including cost estimation and stock control aids. The first phase of the development programme dealt with the establishment of CAD facilities for form-roll design, comprising the design of the finished section, the flower pattern, the roll design and the interactive roll editor program. Concerning the CAM facilities, dealt with in the second phase, an expert system roll machining processor and a general post-processor have been developed for considering the roll geometry and automatically generating NC tape programs for any required CNC lathe system. These programs have been successfully implemented, as an integrated manufacturing software system, on the VAX 11/750 super-minicomputer with graphics facilities for displaying drawings interactively on the terminal screen. The development of the integrated system has been found beneficial in all aspects of form-roll design and manufacture. Design and manufacturing lead times have been reduced by several weeks, quality has improved considerably and productivity has increased. The work has also demonstrated the promising nature of the expert systems approach to computer integrated manufacture.

Development of a computerised library system in the construction industry

This thesis examines the ways that libraries have employed computers to assist with housekeeping operations. It considers the relevance of such applications to company libraries in the construction industry, and describes more specifically the development of an integrated cataloguing and loan system. A review of the main features in the development of computerised ordering, cataloguing and circulation control systems shows that fully integrated packages are beginning to be completed, and that some libraries are introducing second generation programs. Cataloguing is the most common activity to be computerised, both at national and company level. Results from a sample of libraries in the construction industry suggest that the only computerised housekeeping system is at Taylor Woodrow. Most of the firms have access to an in-house computer, and some of the libraries, particularly those in firms of consulting engineers, might benefit from computerisation, but there are differing attitudes amongst the librarians towards the computer. A detailed study of the library at Taylor Woodrow resulted in a feasibility report covering all the areas of its activities. One of the main suggestions was the possible use of a computerised loans and cataloguing system. An integrated system to cover these two areas was programmed in Fortran and implemented. This new system provides certain benefits and saves staff time, but at the cost of time on the computer. Some improvements could be made by reprogramming, but it provides a general system for small technical libraries. A general equation comparing costs for manual and computerised operations is progressively simplified to a form where the annual saving from the computerised system is expressed in terms of staff and computer costs and the size of the library. This equation gives any library an indication of the savings or extra cost which would result from using the computerised system.