Multi-model fitting based on minimum spanning tree

This paper presents a novel approach to the computation of primitive geometrical structures, where no prior knowledge about the visual scene is available and a high level of noise is expected. We based our work on the grouping principles of proximity and similarity, of points and preliminary models. The former was realized using Minimum Spanning Trees (MST), on which we apply a stable alignment and goodness of fit criteria. As for the latter, we used spectral clustering of preliminary models. The algorithm can be generalized to various model fitting settings, without tuning of run parameters. Experiments demonstrate the significant improvement in the localization accuracy of models in plane, homography and motion segmentation examples. The efficiency of the algorithm is not dependent on fine tuning of run parameters like most others in the field.

Template model for blur coding: the role of early nonlinearity in edge segmentation

We describe a template model for perception of edge blur and identify a crucial early nonlinearity in this process. The main principle is to spatially filter the edge image to produce a 'signature', and then find which of a set of templates best fits that signature. Psychophysical blur-matching data strongly support the use of a second-derivative signature, coupled to Gaussian first-derivative templates. The spatial scale of the best-fitting template signals the edge blur. This model predicts blur-matching data accurately for a wide variety of Gaussian and non-Gaussian edges, but it suffers a bias when edges of opposite sign come close together in sine-wave gratings and other periodic images. This anomaly suggests a second general principle: the region of an image that 'belongs' to a given edge should have a consistent sign or direction of luminance gradient. Segmentation of the gradient profile into regions of common sign is achieved by implementing the second-derivative 'signature' operator as two first-derivative operators separated by a half-wave rectifier. This multiscale system of nonlinear filters predicts perceived blur accurately for periodic and aperiodic waveforms. We also outline its extension to 2-D images and infer the 2-D shape of the receptive fields.

Statnote 19: non-linear regression: fitting an exponential curve to data

Non-linear relationships are common in microbiological research and often necessitate the use of the statistical techniques of non-linear regression or curve fitting. In some circumstances, the investigator may wish to fit an exponential model to the data, i.e., to test the hypothesis that a quantity Y either increases or decays exponentially with increasing X. This type of model is straight forward to fit as taking logarithms of the Y variable linearises the relationship which can then be treated by the methods of linear regression.

Statnote 20: non-linear regression: fitting a general polynomial curve

In some circumstances, there may be no scientific model of the relationship between X and Y that can be specified in advance and indeed the objective of the investigation may be to provide a ‘curve of best fit’ for predictive purposes. In such an example, the fitting of successive polynomials may be the best approach. There are various strategies to decide on the polynomial of best fit depending on the objectives of the investigation.

Model evaluation and case series data

We discuss aggregation of data from neuropsychological patients and the process of evaluating models using data from a series of patients. We argue that aggregation can be misleading but not aggregating can also result in information loss. The basis for combining data needs to be theoretically defined, and the particular method of aggregation depends on the theoretical question and characteristics of the data. We present examples, often drawn from our own research, to illustrate these points. We also argue that statistical models and formal methods of model selection are a useful way to test theoretical accounts using data from several patients in multiple-case studies or case series. Statistical models can often measure fit in a way that explicitly captures what a theory allows; the parameter values that result from model fitting often measure theoretically important dimensions and can lead to more constrained theories or new predictions; and model selection allows the strength of evidence for models to be quantified without forcing this into the artificial binary choice that characterizes hypothesis testing methods. Methods that aggregate and then formally model patient data, however, are not automatically preferred to other methods. Which method is preferred depends on the question to be addressed, characteristics of the data, and practical issues like availability of suitable patients, but case series, multiple-case studies, single-case studies, statistical models, and process models should be complementary methods when guided by theory development.

Evolution, recurrency and kernels in learning to model inflation

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. We use non-linear, artificial intelligence techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks, evolution strategies and kernel methods in our forecasting experiment. In the experiment, these three methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation. There is evidence in the literature that evolutionary methods can be used to evolve kernels hence our future work should combine the evolutionary and kernel methods to get the benefits of both.